Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating and bullish [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply disruption risks still exist, and new energy metals as a whole continue to be strong. Lithium supply disruptions are expected to push up lithium prices in the short and medium term, and a bullish view on lithium prices is advisable. Silicon prices are showing an oscillating trend, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [1]. - For industrial silicon, coal prices are fluctuating, leading to continuous volatility in silicon prices. For polysilicon, market sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in wide - range price volatility. For lithium carbonate, the battle between bulls and bears continues, and the price is oscillating and correcting [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of August 19, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative output decreased by 20.0% year - on - year. In June, exports increased by 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports decreased by 6.6% year - on - year. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year, and from January to June, cumulative installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to rise. In August, the supply pressure may continue to increase. Demand shows some improvement signs, but the inventory is expected to accumulate further [5]. - **Outlook**: Silicon prices will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the resumption of production by large factories will be the key [5]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re - feedstock ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In June, exports increased by 5.96% month - on - month and decreased by 39.67% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports decreased by 7.23% year - on - year. In June, imports increased by 40.3% month - on - month. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 47.59% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 107% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: Macro factors and coal price fluctuations lead to wide - range price oscillations. Supply is expected to increase in August, and demand may weaken in the future [6][8]. - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have a significant impact on prices, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On August 19, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.9%, and the total position decreased by 16,876 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased by 1,100 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 1,045 US dollars/ton. The warehouse receipts increased by 60 tons [9]. - **Main Logic**: The supply shortage caused by mine shutdowns will gradually emerge, but high prices may stimulate supply. The current domestic supply and demand are generally balanced [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by shutdowns is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [10]. 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under market monitoring but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]. 3. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On August 19, 2025, the commodity index was 2,223.20, a decrease of 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2,469.40, a decrease of 0.26%; the industrial products index was 2,256.94, a decrease of 0.47% [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On August 19, 2025, the index was 430.14, with a daily decrease of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.93%, a 1 - month increase of 7.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.30% [52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing an upward trend due to regulatory support and production limitations [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is reported to be between 45,000 to 52,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The number of companies signing polysilicon contracts this week is six, with market prices showing stability and slight increases, particularly in small orders which have risen by 1 to 2 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, maintaining an expected output of approximately 125,000 tons for August [2] - If the "production and sales limits" are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, although the current supply exceeds demand, leading to continued inventory accumulation [2] - Despite ongoing inventory pressure, the average price of polysilicon is expected to have upward support due to market expectations and increased costs from production limitations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support in the photovoltaic industry [2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 46,000 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1] - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1] Market Dynamics - The price increase is supported by a joint meeting of six ministries aimed at regulating competition in the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to avoid excessive competition [2] - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [2] - Major polysilicon producers are reducing production, which is expected to increase overall costs and lead to higher market prices due to regulatory constraints [2] Production and Inventory - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected production of approximately 125,000 tons in August [2] - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly [2] - Industry inventory is projected to continue accumulating, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons from August to September [2] Price Statistics - The highest and lowest transaction prices for n-type polysilicon are 52,000 CNY/ton and 45,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton [3] - The price fluctuations for n-type granular silicon show a highest price of 47,000 CNY/ton and a lowest price of 45,000 CNY/ton, with an average price increase of 3.37% [3] Participating Companies - The companies involved in the price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [4]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply constraints and positive market signals from government initiatives aimed at regulating the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,000 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1][3]. - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1]. Market Dynamics - The increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to a joint meeting by six ministries to discuss the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to regulate competition and reduce "involution" [1]. - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [1][2]. - Major polysilicon producers are reducing output, which is expected to lead to increased overall costs and a regulatory environment that prevents sales below comprehensive costs [1][2]. Inventory and Production Outlook - The number of operating polysilicon companies remains at nine, maintaining an output expectation of around 125,000 tons for August [2]. - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly, leading to an anticipated inventory increase of approximately 20,000 tons for August and September combined [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon continued to show high - level oscillations. The spot price provides strong support for the futures price, but the supply - demand balance in the industry requires more policy constraints and guidance. The overall supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. In the short term, the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and caution should be exercised regarding the policy exceeding expectations in the capital game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The closing price of the PS2509 contract of polysilicon was 52,260 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The trading volume was 580,607 lots, and the open interest was 137,977 lots, with a net increase of 2,460 lots [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The average spot price (re - feedstock) was stable at 47,500 yuan/ton. The silicon industry association expects the production in September to reach 145,000 tons. The futures and spot prices are supported by policies at the bottom and restricted by supply - demand pressure at the top, and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4]. 3.3 Market News - On August 19th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,930 lots, with a net increase of 110 lots compared to the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, and the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW. In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared to June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain high-level consolidation due to supply increases and mixed demand, with continued attention to silicon enterprise production dynamics [1] - Polysilicon prices are also expected to stay at a high level with large market fluctuations, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - sentiment changes and warehouse receipt registration [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.23% to 8,625 yuan/ton [1] - N - type dense material price was flat at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 price was flat at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material price was flat at 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon price was flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 0.04% to 52,260 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial Silicon - Supply: As silicon prices rise, some previously - overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise start - up rates are steadily increasing. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production, which will bring some demand increments. An organic silicon plant stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the recent supply pressure of monomer plants has increased, and prices may be under pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, but some new production capacity may be put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that production will increase slightly, reaching nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices have risen, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large - scale pre - installation in the first half of the year [1] Industry News - On August 19, TBEA Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to issue up to 8 billion yuan of convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects, and the funds will be used for a coal - to - natural - gas project with a total investment of 17.039 billion yuan [1] - From January to June 2025, Shandong Province issued 53.83 million green certificates, a 130.4% increase year - on - year, covering various renewable energy types [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to potential复产 of some bases and release of new production capacity of leading companies in the second half of the year, while short - term demand is weak as June's PV new installation decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Therefore, the polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend due to cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. Industrial silicon demand is steadily declining with supply also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state. The current advice is to wait and see or arrange put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 137,977 lots, up 2,460 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,420 yuan, down 130 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43,635 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is - 5,280 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - shaped, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,7386,000 kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the PV industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a PV enterprise symposium on August 19th. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and consider promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. There are expectations of increased supply of polysilicon due to the复产 of some bases and new capacity release [2] 3.7 Key Points of View - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase, while the demand is weak. The short - term demand for polysilicon is restricted by the low PV new installation in June. The operating rate of downstream PV enterprises is difficult to improve. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week, with prices showing a volatile trend. Industrial silicon demand is declining, and the market remains volatile [2] 3.8 Key Concerns - There is no news today. The polysilicon market is in high - level volatility, and the PV symposium has not released much news. The market is still speculating on merger rumors. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].