（文华综合 ） 国家统计局发布报告显示，中国12月精炼铜（电解铜）产量为132.6万吨，同比增加9.1%。1-12月累计 产量为1,472.0万吨，同比增长10.4%。虽然12月有部分冶炼厂检修，但实际影响产量有限，而前期检修 的冶炼厂陆续复产，另外，由于铜价持续拉升，使得精废价差大幅扩大，废产阳极铜的产量增加，冶炼 厂的原料得以有效补充，不少冶炼厂的产量均出现环比上升，12月铜产量环比增加。进入1月，SMM表 示，将有5家冶炼厂有检修计划，涉及粗炼产能105万吨，预计影响量约为1.9万吨。往年不少冶炼厂有 开门红的习惯，但今年由于铜精矿供应紧张，仅个别冶炼厂仍保持该习惯。另外，1月原计划是有2家冶 炼厂要投产，但因各种原因影响，仅一家能按时投产，另外一家要延后至3月底4月初。 ...

对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，特朗普表示已与北约就格陵兰岛问题达成共识，将不会兑现原定对欧洲 八国实施加征关税政策，市场避险情绪降温，金银回落一度拖累铜价向下调整，此外，高铜价持续拖累 国内需求，洋山铜溢价最低跌至20美金附近，创近1年半以来最低；基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产进 程缓慢，全球显性库存继续增加，国内累库速率加快，整体预计铜价短期将转入调整，但在基本面结构 性时候的背景下，调整幅度或较为有限。 （文华综合） 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情略有转暖，收盘上涨0.28%。由于铜价高企，此前精废价差拉大，废产阳 极铜的产量增加，12月中国精铜产量继续增加，助力全年产量再创纪录，最近宏观面情绪反复，全球铜 库存回升，利多消息有限，铜价高位调整。 国家统计局数据显示，中国12月精炼铜产量为132.6万吨，同比增加9.1%。1-12月累计产量为1,472.0万 吨，同比增长10.4%，近些年由于国内冶炼产能持续扩张，叠加冶炼厂优化原料结构，精炼铜产量继续 增加。 此前由于市场担忧美国未来仍会对精炼铜加征关税，美国对于全球铜的虹吸效应仍在延续，当前 COMEX铜库存已经升至55万短吨之上，超过50万吨。此前得益于全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. However, both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact, and although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. Both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales from January 1 - 11 being 117,000 vehicles, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% significant decline compared to the same period in December 2025. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact. Although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China today is - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 145 yuan/ton. On January 20, 2026, the LME official price was 12,937 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 122 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of the latest data on January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 145,600 tons, a decrease of 2,612 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 156,300 tons, an increase of 8,875 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 547,600 short tons, an increase of 4,715 short tons from the previous period [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China's copper scrap imports reached a record high of 239,000 tons in December 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 14.81% and a year-on-year increase of 9.90% [1] - Asian countries remain the primary suppliers of copper scrap, with Japan leading in supply despite a slight month-on-month decline, while Thailand's supply increased and South Korea's supply decreased significantly [1] - The tightening supply of copper ore has led smelters to enhance their procurement of copper scrap [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gansu Province has achieved significant economic growth in 2025, with key indicators surpassing expectations, reflecting a stable and improving economic environment. Economic Performance - The GDP of Gansu Province reached 1,369.75 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, consistently outperforming the national average for 16 consecutive quarters since 2022 [2] - The primary industry added value was 177.3 billion yuan (5.5% growth), the secondary industry 455.82 billion yuan (6.7% growth), and the tertiary industry 736.63 billion yuan (5.3% growth), indicating collaborative growth across all sectors [2] Industrial Growth - Industrial production remains a key driver of economic growth, with a 9.5% increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size [3] - The mining industry grew by 5.4%, manufacturing by 9.3%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry by 17.6%, showcasing enhanced power supply capabilities [3] - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and electricity and heat production saw added value growth of 19.5% and 18.5%, respectively [3] Foreign Trade - Gansu's total import and export value reached 71.17 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase year-on-year, with exports surging by 44.5% to 18.38 billion yuan, indicating improved international competitiveness [4] - Imports totaled 52.79 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, with trade with Belt and Road countries accounting for 70.5% of total trade [4] Agricultural Production - Grain production reached a historical high of 13.0925 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous year, with autumn grain production growing by 1.97% [5] - Livestock production also increased, with pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat output reaching 1.803 million tons, a 6.3% growth [5] Consumer Market and Investment - The service sector showed strong recovery, with new service industries like information technology and leasing services growing by 19.2% and 15.6%, respectively [6] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.5%, driven by policies promoting consumption upgrades, with significant growth in categories such as communication equipment and new energy vehicles [6] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight decline overall, but excluding real estate, it grew by 2.7%, with manufacturing investment up by 4.5% and infrastructure investment up by 14.5% [6]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market continues to show strong performance, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, with gold surpassing $4700 per ounce and silver reaching $95.457 per ounce, reflecting increases of over 9% and 33% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] - The aluminum prices are also rising, with both Shanghai and London aluminum prices following the upward trend of precious metals, leading to increased discussions about the supply-demand dynamics in the metal sector [1] - The market's focus is on several dimensions, including the warming expectations of global monetary easing, a weakening dollar index supporting metal prices, and supply constraints in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities believes that the long-term logic of gold replacing U.S. Treasuries for asset allocation remains valid, with continued inflows into ETFs likely to drive Western investors to buy gold, predicting that the gold market will likely continue into 2026 [2] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes that rising geopolitical tensions are enhancing safe-haven sentiment for precious metals, with a clear upward trend in gold prices driven by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [2] - China International Capital Corporation indicates that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum is widening, and with supportive fiscal and monetary policies globally, aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs [2]

Core Insights - Gansu's GDP reached 1.36975 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.8%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average, marking 16 consecutive quarters of growth above the national level [1] - The economic growth is supported by a robust performance across the three major industries, with primary, secondary, and tertiary industries contributing 177.3 billion yuan, 455.82 billion yuan, and 736.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 5.5%, 6.7%, and 5.3% [1] - Gansu's strategic focus on industrial upgrading and the development of emerging industries has led to significant growth in sectors such as computer communication manufacturing and non-ferrous metal smelting [2] Economic Performance - The primary industry has shown solid foundations with grain production exceeding 13 million tons for the first time, alongside rapid growth in vegetables, fruits, and traditional Chinese medicine [1] - The industrial sector has outperformed nationally for four consecutive years, with the establishment of the largest land-based wind power equipment manufacturing base in Jiuquan, enhancing Gansu's competitive edge in high-quality development [1] - The tertiary sector contributed 51.4% to GDP growth, with tourism seeing over 500 million visitors and generating 403.6 billion yuan in spending, highlighting the cultural appeal and consumer attraction of Gansu [2] Strategic Initiatives - Gansu's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the dual empowerment of internal and external circulation, with a focus on transforming resource advantages into development strengths [2] - The province has achieved a cumulative installed capacity of 80.42 million kilowatts in the renewable energy sector, indicating a leap in the new energy industry [2] - Infrastructure and ecological construction are advancing simultaneously, with the formation of complete industrial chains in wind, solar, and thermal energy equipment manufacturing, alongside new growth points in hydrogen and energy storage equipment [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's expectation of imposing tariffs on key minerals weakens, and the US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, causing the equity market to weaken and market sentiment to cool. In the copper industry, the supply of copper mines remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong but North American inventories are increasing marginally, and the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. Therefore, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [3][4]. - Tensions between Europe and the US have weakened market sentiment. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low global LME aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downward space of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment is expected to increase, and with the "rush to export" expectation in the photovoltaic industry, aluminum prices still have support in the short term [4][5]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong price support. However, demand is relatively average, so prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [8][9]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates is declining, the operating rate of primary lead remains high and is further slightly adjusted upwards, the raw material inventory of the secondary lead end is rising, and the weekly operating rate of secondary lead is marginally adjusted upwards. The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises is marginally improving, and the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Lead prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the medium term during the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12][13]. - The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly declined, and the imported TC of zinc concentrates has slightly declined. Although the rise in zinc prices has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, the industrial situation has not significantly improved. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to accumulate, and the Shanghai - London ratio has stagnated and declined. Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14][15]. - The supply - demand situation of tin has marginally improved, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. [16][17][18] - Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The progress of mine type changes in two lithium mines in Jiangxi has been made, but the market is more worried about the reduction of mica ore mining due to compliance issues. The main contract of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit at the end of the session. The uncertainty of the mine end is strong in the short term, and the expectation of supply contraction has not been falsified. Market sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt [21][22]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although the market's expectation of supply contraction policies is increasing, there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. - The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to remain tight, and market sentiment is optimistic. Stainless steel shows a trend of increasing volume and price. The supply of raw materials is restricted, the production scheduling of many mainstream steel mills has slowed down, and market arrivals are tight. Although price increases have stimulated some traders to stock up, end - users' acceptance of high prices is limited. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and prices may show a high - level fluctuation pattern [27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased significantly, and copper prices declined. LME copper 3M closed down 1.47% to $12,796/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99,930 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.4 to 148,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures, and the market trading sentiment was weak. The spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and trading was average. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The price difference between refined and scrap copper was 3,000 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. In December 2025, the import volume of copper scrap increased year - on - year and month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 98,000 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is expected to trade in the range of $12,500 - 13,000/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum closed down 1.48% to $3,118/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,775 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum slightly increased to 699,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 140,000 tons. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in three major regions increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods slightly increased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rebound, and market sentiment was cautious. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in the range of 23,500 - 24,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is expected to trade in the range of $3,080 - 3,150/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.55% to 22,765 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position declined to 23,800 lots, and the trading volume was 11,800 lots, with increased trading volume. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 69,100 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in domestic mainstream regions decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. Trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three major regions decreased by 0.01 to 43,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.25% to 17,228 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 9.5 to $2,058/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 165,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. The lead ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 203,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 40,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.13 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 115.6 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.21, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 106.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 29,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [12][13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% to 24,417 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 4.5 to $3,227/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 233,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 35 yuan/ton. The zinc ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,400 tons, the domestic Shanghai region basis was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,500 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 41.66 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 4.06 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,034.38 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 112,100 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, tin prices stabilized and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 399,000 yuan/ton, a 2.44% increase from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 461 tons from the previous day to 8,860 tons. In terms of supply, the smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and with normal production. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, was accelerating, and the rise in tin prices increased the enthusiasm for resumption of production. In December, it was estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore would be imported, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan had been significantly alleviated compared with the previous period, with an expected increase in subsequent imports. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, the sharp rise in Shanghai tin futures prices last week significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. Currently, enterprises generally followed up with small amounts based on rigid demand, controlled inventory levels, and there was no obvious release of spot circulation. Under the high - premium pattern, market trading was light, and the operating rates of some processing enterprises decreased significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to trade in the range of 360,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to trade in the range of $47,000 - 51,000/ton [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands varied. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 1 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price of Shanghai nickel is expected to trade in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to trade in the range of $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 152,431 yuan, a 5.52% increase from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 - 156,400 yuan, and the average price increased by 8,050 yuan (+5.56%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 146,200 - 153,200 yuan, and the average price increased by 5.31% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 160,500 yuan, an 8.99% increase from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. According to customs data, in December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month and a 14% decrease from the same period last

Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Global market risk appetite has weakened, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a stock - bond - exchange triple - kill in the US. Geopolitical risks, such as the issue of Greenland acquisition, are the main drivers of market fluctuations, while the fundamentals and changes in interest - rate cut expectations remain relatively stable [2][15]. - In the stock market, there is a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks, and the market rotation speed has accelerated. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and attention should be focused on the technological industry trends and the intensity of the Two Sessions' policies [3][23]. - In the commodity market, different commodities show different trends. For example, gold is strong, while some metals and agricultural products are under pressure. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy regulations, and geopolitical risks [4][11][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Poland's central bank plans to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, aiming to rank among the top 10 countries with the largest gold reserves globally. A Danish pension fund will exit the US Treasury market. Gold has risen by about 2% and reached a new high. The market's risk aversion has increased, and the distrust of the US dollar has grown, which supports the price of gold. The silver is weaker than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that if the Supreme Court restricts the federal government's tariff policy, he can use other means. His intention regarding Greenland has not changed, which has led to a weakening of global market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [12][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Netflix's Q4 performance was excellent, but its Q1 guidance was disappointing. Geopolitical risks have continued to escalate during the long weekend, and the trade dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland has intensified, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite. The performance of the stock market has been suppressed, and the three major US stock indexes have fallen by more than 2%. It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate at a high level during the earnings season [17][19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged. The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a package of five fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand. The stock market continued to adjust, with a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 1 - month LPR has remained stable for eight consecutive months. The central bank conducted a 324 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan on the same day. The stock market's upward momentum is weak, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased. The short - term rebound of treasury bond futures is expected to continue, but the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish. It is recommended to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25][26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market has shown mixed trends. Coke producers have initiated the first round of price increases, which are still in the negotiation stage. The supply is relatively stable, while the downstream steel and coke enterprises are actively restocking. The inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short term, the spot price is supported by the downstream restocking sentiment, but the upward momentum of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Two departments have issued measures to support urban renewal. A steel group has completed a strategic acquisition to build a high - end special - steel production base. Steel prices have continued to decline, and the fundamentals of finished products have faced increasing pressure in January. The seasonal decline in demand is expected to be more obvious, and the export has also weakened marginally. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy before the Spring Festival and hedge inventory when the price rebounds [30][31][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 145% compared to the same period last year. The prices of domestic and foreign futures have remained weak. Although the soybean imports in the first quarter are expected to be at a low level, the current inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign futures will remain weak under the condition of a bumper harvest in South America [33][34][36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. The palm oil price is expected to be supported in the short term due to its cost - effectiveness and the active purchasing attitude of countries such as India. However, the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 8800 - 8900 yuan level [38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 39% compared to the average daily exports in January of the previous year. India may raise the minimum selling price of sugar. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in December 2025 decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure during the peak production period, and the demand during the pre - Spring Festival stocking period is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is limited [39][40][42]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Ghana is promoting the construction of its first large - scale alumina refinery. The inventory of alumina enterprises has increased, and the futures price is under pressure [43]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In December 2025, China's lithium ore imports increased by 8.1% month - on - month, and lithium carbonate imports decreased by 14% year - on - year. The price of lithium carbonate has reached the daily limit, which is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and demand support. In the short term, it may continue to reduce inventory. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after the position and volatility stabilize [44][45][46]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Six departments have issued a management method for the recycling of new - energy vehicle waste power batteries. The prices of domestic and foreign lead have oscillated downward. The macro - level disturbances have increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The social inventory is expected to continue to rise, which will suppress the lead price. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [47][48][49]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In December 2025, China's galvanized sheet exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while zinc concentrate imports decreased month - on - month. The zinc price has oscillated weakly, affected by macro - level disturbances. The fundamentals of LME zinc have weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be vigilant against geopolitical risks [50][51][53]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A company has made progress in high - speed copper cable business. Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. China's scrap - copper imports in December 2025 increased month - on - month. The short - term macro - level negative factors have relatively increased, and the global visible inventory has risen, which will suppress the copper price. It is expected that the copper price will change from a strong rise to a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The discount of LME tin has reached 108.01 US dollars per ton. The inventories of both the SHFE and LME have increased significantly. The processing fees of smelters have risen, and the demand remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [58]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Norway's oil production in December was 1.962 million barrels per day. The oil price has oscillated and rebounded, supported by concerns about geopolitical uncertainties. The market lacks new drivers in the short term, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [59][60]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A company's PP devices have stopped for maintenance. An extreme cold wave warning has been issued in the US, which has raised concerns about the short - term supply and exports of LPG. The outer - market price is expected to be strong in the near term, and the inner - market price may follow passively [61][62]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 20, the closing price of CEA was 73 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.88% from the previous day. After the 2024 compliance period, the market trading activity has cooled down significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to buy on dips if there is demand [62][63]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of polyethylene has decreased month - on - month, but the LLDPE inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. The LLDPE price has a large callback space, and the 05 - contract price is expected to decline to the 6550 - 6600 yuan level [64][66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot market negotiation was light in the afternoon. The PTA futures price has increased with increased positions. The short - term upward space is limited due to factors such as the relatively abundant supply of PX and the weak speculative demand of downstream industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [67][68][69].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract reaching 158,420.0 yuan/ton, marking a substantial rise of 7.58% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for lithium carbonate futures, effective from January 21, 2026, with the price fluctuation limit set at 11% and speculative trading margin at 13% [2] - Supply-side factors include reports of production halts at Guoxuan High-Tech's mines and unclear recovery progress at the Jiangxiawo mine, with concerns about the reliability of the information circulating in the market [2] Group 2 - Demand-side analysis indicates that the significant rise in lithium carbonate prices may suppress terminal demand, with factors such as export tax adjustments and increased production schedules at downstream cathode manufacturers contributing to this outlook [2] - The market is expected to experience high volatility in lithium carbonate futures, with predictions of a shift towards a high-level wide fluctuation pattern in the future [2] - Investment strategies suggest that investors should wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry points, while also monitoring opportunities for volatility selling strategies due to the current high volatility levels [2]