Group 1 - The integration of supply chains and the reshaping of trade patterns present new development opportunities for Hong Kong's trade, shipping, finance, and professional services [1][2] - Hong Kong's exports to Vietnam and Malaysia increased by over 50% and 30% respectively in the first half of this year, with ASEAN becoming Hong Kong's second-largest trading partner, rising from 12.1% of total trade in 2021 to 14.8% in the first half of this year [2] - The establishment of a "bulk commodity trading ecosystem" is progressing, with Hong Kong successfully joining the London Metal Exchange's global warehouse and delivery network, enhancing connections with active metal trading markets [2][3] Group 2 - The recognition of warehouses in Hong Kong by the LME improves the efficiency of non-ferrous metal allocation and reduces logistics time and costs, while stabilizing the supply of key metal resources in the region [3] - The trading and delivery activities of bulk commodities in Hong Kong will increase demand for related shipping services and promote the development of trade financing, insurance, risk management, and derivative financial services [3] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the establishment of multinational supply chain management centers, making Hong Kong a preferred platform for companies looking to expand internationally [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that geopolitical changes and tariff wars are reshaping international trade patterns and supply chain configurations, leading to significant growth in Hong Kong's trade, particularly with ASEAN countries [1][7][11] - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's exports to Vietnam and Malaysia increased by over 50% and 30% respectively, while imports from these countries grew by approximately 70% and 30% [1][7] - ASEAN's share of Hong Kong's total trade rose from 12.1% in 2021 to 14.8% in the first half of this year, indicating a deepening regional trade cooperation [1][7] Group 2 - The integration of supply chains and the restructuring of trade forms present new development opportunities for Hong Kong's trade, shipping, finance, and professional services [1][8] - The establishment of a "bulk commodity trading ecosystem" is underway, with Hong Kong successfully joining the London Metal Exchange's global warehouse and delivery network, enhancing its role in the global metal trading market [8][9] - Since becoming an LME delivery point in January, eight approved warehouses have commenced operations, with over 8,000 tons of LME registered warrants supporting contract deliveries by early August [9] Group 3 - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a multinational supply chain management center, attracting mainland enterprises looking to expand internationally, particularly in the "Global South" and "Belt and Road" regions [10][11] - The government is collaborating with various agencies to provide one-stop consulting services for enterprises aiming to utilize Hong Kong as a launchpad for international expansion [10][11] - The establishment of "The Cradle Outbound Service Center" aims to support mainland tech companies in overcoming challenges related to international market entry, such as technology standards and intellectual property protection [10]

Group 1 - The integration of supply chains and the reshaping of trade patterns present new development opportunities for Hong Kong's trade, shipping, finance, and professional services [1][2] - Hong Kong's exports to Vietnam and Malaysia increased by over 50% and 30% respectively in the first half of this year, with ASEAN becoming Hong Kong's second-largest trading partner, rising from 12.1% in 2021 to 14.8% in the first half of this year [2] - The establishment of a "bulk commodity trading ecosystem" is progressing steadily, with Hong Kong joining the London Metal Exchange's global warehouse and delivery network, marking a significant milestone [2][3] Group 2 - The recognition of LME warehouses in Hong Kong enhances the efficiency of non-ferrous metal allocation, reduces logistics time and costs, and stabilizes the supply of key metal resources in the region [3] - Since becoming an LME delivery point in January, eight approved warehouses have been operational, with over 8,000 tons of LME registered warrants supporting LME contract delivery by early August [3] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the establishment of multinational supply chain management centers, positioning Hong Kong as a preferred platform for companies looking to expand internationally [4]

Core Insights - The launch of the container shipping index (European route) futures has provided a powerful tool for managing price risks in the shipping and trade export sectors, especially amid high volatility in freight rates [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 15, 2025, the container shipping index (European route) futures have recorded a total of 483 trading days, with a cumulative trading volume of 61.0491 million contracts and a cumulative trading value of 5.28 trillion yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume stands at 126,400 contracts, with an average daily trading value of 10.942 billion yuan, and the end-of-period open interest is 79,500 contracts [1] Group 2: Industry Participation - The participation of shipping industry chain enterprises in the futures market has gradually increased, with stakeholders including shippers and logistics companies actively engaging in hedging activities [2][3] - Freight forwarding companies are particularly active in using the futures for risk management, as they face significant uncertainties in pricing for long-term contracts [3] Group 3: Challenges in Participation - Shipping industry clients face several challenges in participating in the futures market, including a lack of understanding of financial instruments and the complexities of price fluctuations driven by both supply-demand fundamentals and macroeconomic events [4][5] - There is a need for futures companies to provide more training and educational resources to help shipping enterprises build a solid understanding of hedging strategies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The futures market for the container shipping index (European route) is expected to see a diversification of hedging participants and the development of new hedging models, including non-traditional over-the-counter hedging options [6] - Increased participation from shipowners and the potential for shipping companies to engage in futures for price risk management is anticipated as awareness of the futures market grows [6][7]

Group 1 - The publication of Xi Jinping's "On Upholding Comprehensive and Deepening Reform" volumes one and two by the Central Literature Publishing House [5] - The emphasis on high-quality development in Tibet, aligning with the new development stage and integrating into the new development pattern [6] - The implementation of integrated protection and systematic governance of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grass, and sand, resulting in the rejuvenation of over 120 million acres of land [7] Group 2 - In July, China's industrial production remained stable, with most industries and products experiencing growth, supported by the equipment manufacturing sector [10] - The overall progress in autumn grain production is steady, with an increase in area under cultivation [11] - The express delivery business volume in China grew by 18.7% year-on-year in the first seven months, totaling 1.1205 billion packages [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand. The decline in September's capacity compared to August has widened to 6.2%, but it is still significantly smaller than the decline in the same period in 2024. The current decline in capacity may be less than the decline in demand, and the fundamentals are expected to face further pressure. - Strategically, it is advisable to hold short positions for the October contract as appropriate and add short positions at high prices. The upper pressure level is referred to as 1400 - 1500 points. For the 2512 contract, in terms of unilateral valuation, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities to expand the spreads of the 10 - 12 reverse spread and the 12 - 04 positive spread in the medium to long term. [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In the past week, August's capacity was revised down from 325,000 to 314,000 TEU/week. In week 34, there were 3 new blank sailings, and the capacity in week 34 was revised down from 342,000 to 309,000 TEU. - In September, the number of undetermined sailings increased by 1 to 2, and the number of blank sailings increased by 1 to 6. The average weekly capacity was revised down from 308,000 to 294,000 TEU/week. The decline in September's capacity compared to August widened to 6.2%, but it was still significantly lower than the decline in the same period in 2024. - In October, there are 6 undetermined sailings and 4 blank sailings. Excluding undetermined sailings, the average weekly capacity is 289,000 TEU/week, but its reference value is currently limited. [4][5][61] 3.2 Demand - Since week 32, the decline in freight rates has led to an increase in the willingness of downstream customers to hold goods and wait. Since week 34 (the third week of August), the booking rate has slowed down significantly month - on - month, and the cargo - collecting pressure of some shipping companies with extra sailings has increased. [5] 3.3 Price - The average FAK in week 34 (the third week of August) was about $2,750/FEU, and it is expected that the average FAK in week 35 (the last week of August) will be around $2,500/FEU. From the supply - demand pattern, the downward trend of freight rates in September remains unchanged. - The SCFIS European Line Index on August 11 was 2,235.48 points, and it is subjectively expected to be around 2,050 points on August 17. [6][16] 3.4 Historical Freight (Monthly) - It shows the freight rates from 2009 - 2024 and the month - on - month and year - on - year changes between different months, such as the comparison between June and February, December and April, etc. [11] 3.5 Global Main Route Freight Seasonal Trends - It presents the seasonal trends of freight rates on major global routes through the SCFI and NCFI, including routes to Europe, the Mediterranean, North America, South America, etc. [23][25] 3.6 Demand - Side Analysis - In July, the total volume of US imported containers was 2,732,039 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8% and a month - on - month increase of 14.7%. The import volume from different countries and regions showed different trends. - In June, China's export decline to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience. [35][36] 3.7 Supply - Side Analysis - In terms of ship schedules, there have been changes in capacity from August to October, including new blank sailings and changes in undetermined sailings. - Regarding dynamic capacity, the speed of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleets has fluctuated upwards, and the number of idle 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000+ TEU container fleets has increased. - In terms of static capacity, in August, the top ten liner companies received 3 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, all from the OA Alliance and deployed on the US routes. There were no new 17,000+ TEU ships delivered in August. [61][65][91]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding in the express delivery segment and Hecun Co., Ltd. in the smart logistics space [2][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 15% year-on-year increase in business volume in July, but the average revenue per ticket decreased by 5.3%. The report anticipates a potential increase in ticket prices due to seasonal demand and price adjustments in production areas [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a stabilization in hazardous chemical water transport prices, with a recommendation for Hecun Co., Ltd. as it focuses on smart logistics and benefits from improving demand [3]. - The aviation sector is responding to regulatory changes aimed at curbing unhealthy competition, with a noted increase in flight operations and a recommendation for major airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines due to expected profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.5% from August 9 to August 15, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 2.4%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The report indicates that the shipping sector is under pressure, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1193.34 points, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1460.19 points, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 52.9% year-on-year [20]. - Domestic shipping is showing a slight improvement, with the Domestic Container Freight Index (PDCI) at 1068 points, up 1.7% week-on-week and up 7.9% year-on-year [28]. Aviation and Airports - The report notes a slight increase in domestic flight operations, with an average of 17,225 flights per day, up 2.76% year-on-year. The report also highlights the release of a self-regulatory charter by the China Air Transport Association to combat unhealthy competition [4][49]. - The domestic air passenger volume in June 2025 was 54.01 million, a 3% increase year-on-year, while international passenger volume increased by 17% [52]. Rail and Road - The report indicates a stable upward trend in road transport, with a 2.44% year-on-year increase in truck traffic on highways. The railway sector also shows positive signs, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in freight volume for the Daqin Railway in July [73][78].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various sectors such as aviation, shipping, infrastructure, and express delivery [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of passenger traffic in the aviation sector, with domestic ticket price declines narrowing. It also notes the potential for valuation recovery in the express delivery industry due to reduced price competition [2][7][24]. - The shipping sector is under observation for the impact of geopolitical events and market dynamics, particularly regarding oil transportation and the upcoming cargo market in September [7][16]. - Infrastructure investments are seen as attractive due to stable dividend yields and the potential for valuation increases in port assets [19]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The report indicates a decline in shipping rates, with the SCFI for the East America route at $2719/FEU, down 2.6%, and the West America route at $1759/FEU, down 3.5% [11]. - It highlights the need to monitor the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report notes that in June 2025, highway passenger volume decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput increased by 4.8% [17][57]. - It suggests that major highway stocks have become attractive for investment due to stable earnings and dividend expectations [19]. Express Delivery - In July 2025, express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with revenue growth of 8.9% [20][66]. - The report discusses the impact of "anti-involution" policies on price competition, suggesting a potential recovery in industry valuations [23][24]. Aviation - The report shows a 2.0% week-on-week increase in passenger volume, with domestic ticket prices declining by 3.7% year-on-year [24][25]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effects of "anti-involution" on industry valuations and the potential for recovery in earnings as travel demand increases [25][26]. Logistics - The report notes a slight decrease in daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, with an average of 978 vehicles, and an increase in short-haul freight rates [26][89]. - It highlights the importance of tracking chemical price indices and air freight rates for logistics investments [90].

Shipping Industry - The recent increase in crude oil shipping rates, particularly for VLCCs, is attributed to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in July and the imposition of punitive tariffs by Trump on India's purchase of Russian oil, indicating a potential bottoming out of the oil shipping market during the summer [1] - Given the current supply dynamics, shipping rates and stock prices are expected to outperform, with marginal changes in demand likely to have a multiplier effect on rates; recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, with a focus on China Merchants Jinling [1] - In the container shipping sector, weakening cargo volumes have led to declining rates on US and European routes, with short-term demand primarily influenced by US-China tariff policies; however, profitability for container shipping companies is expected to remain under pressure throughout the year [1] Aviation Industry - As the summer travel peak season nears its end, there has been a slight increase in overall and domestic flight volumes, with overall and domestic flights up by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively compared to the previous week, and overall flights at 110.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The domestic average ticket price has decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, while passenger load factors have improved by 0.7 percentage points; the overall aviation market is experiencing a situation of rising volume but falling prices [2] - Investment recommendations suggest positioning in the aviation sector at lower points, as profits and stock prices are expected to rebound significantly with economic recovery, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1 has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with minimum price standards raised in regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong, indicating a shift towards improved service quality and reduced competition [3] - The express delivery industry is expected to see a balance between regulation, competition, profitability, and quality, with positive price and profit performance anticipated in the fourth quarter [3] - Investment suggestions include focusing on SF Express, which is expected to benefit from increased consumer demand for home appliances and 3C products, and monitoring the effects of the "anti-involution" policy on other express companies like ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery and shipping industries, highlighting potential recovery and investment opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is entering a verification phase for price increases, with key observations on price implementation, regional interactions, merchant actions, demand impacts, and potential social security implications. The report presents three scenarios for the industry: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to profit recovery and significant dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics in many regions, exacerbating industry differentiation; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply [3]. - The report emphasizes the opportunity in China Shipbuilding, noting a combined order value of 378.7 billion with a market value-to-order ratio of 0.76, indicating a historically low position. It recommends focusing on the dry bulk shipping sector and highlights the potential for profit transmission from the black chain industry to shipping [3]. - In the oil transportation segment, VLCC rates remained stable at $34,764 per day, with expectations for continued price increases due to tight capacity and active demand. The report also discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the resulting increase in compliant oil demand [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Civil Aviation Administration's "anti-involution" policies, which may optimize competitive structures and enhance airline profitability. The report recommends several airlines based on supply constraints and demand elasticity [3]. - The railway and highway sectors show resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes. The report suggests two main investment themes for the highway sector: traditional high-dividend investments and potential value management catalysts for undervalued stocks [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price verification phase, with potential for profit recovery and significant dividends [3]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [3]. Shipping - China Shipbuilding presents an investment opportunity with a low market value-to-order ratio [3]. - Recommended companies in the dry bulk shipping sector include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Pacific Shipping [3]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates are stable, with expectations for increases due to tight capacity and demand [3]. - The report notes the impact of U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Iran and Russia, affecting overall oil demand [3]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for profitability improvements due to regulatory changes and supply constraints [3]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [3]. Railway and Highway - The railway and highway sectors are showing steady growth in freight volumes, indicating resilience [3]. - Investment themes include high-dividend stocks and undervalued stocks in the highway sector [3].