Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows fluctuations in the RMB exchange rates against various currencies, indicating a mixed trend in currency valuation as of May 14, 2025 [1]. Exchange Rate Changes - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1956, down by 35 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the USD [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.0358, up by 341 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the Euro [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.92286, down by 8.8 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the HKD [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.5533, up by 486 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the GBP [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6468, up by 488 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB against the AUD [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.1537, down by 86 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the CAD [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 4.8700, up by 67 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the JPY [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.1094, down by 1331 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the RUB [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2631, up by 361 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the NZD [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.6011, up by 32.3 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB against the MYR [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.5570, up by 215 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the CHF [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5225, down by 24 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the SGD [1]

然而，美联储（Fed）官员已对潜在的滞胀表示担忧。行长迈克尔·巴尔警告称，提高关税可能会扰乱供 应链。 从日线图来看，布林带显示，美元兑加元汇率已经从上轨1.4186回落，但仍处于中轨1.3909附近，表明 上行趋势并未完全结束。 MACD指标显示，DIFF线与DEA线目前交叉向上，MACD柱状图由负转正，表明短期动能正在积累， 有利于美元对加元汇率反弹。同时，RSI指标处于48附近的中性区域，并没有出现明显的超买或超卖信 号，这意味着汇价仍有进一步上行的空间。 值得注意的是，CCI指标近期从超卖区域(-130)急速反弹至目前的190.8837水平，已经进入超买区域，这 可能预示短期内存在回调风险。 周一（5月12日）亚市盘中，加拿大劳动力市场数据公布后，美元/加元升至接近1.3920。加拿大失业率 以快于预期的速度加速上升至6.9%。美元兑加元正试图连续第四个交易日保持其位置，美元/加元徘徊 在1.3940左右。该货币对得到支持，因为随着周末在瑞士举行的美中贸易谈判取得进展，美元（USD） 走强。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将与中国官员在日内瓦进行的为期两天的会谈描述为富有成效，预计将在 周一上午的简报中公 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the foreign exchange market this week is the substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations [1] - High-level talks between the US and China took place in Geneva, resulting in an "important consensus" and the establishment of a trade consultation mechanism [1] - President Trump indicated a potential reduction of tariffs on China from a maximum of 145% to 80%, reflecting a compromise stance [1] Group 2 - The market is focused on key economic data from the US, including April CPI, PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, and the May Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will guide future Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve has recently signaled a hawkish stance, but there remains a divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a prudent monetary policy, supporting economic growth through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] Group 3 - The US dollar index (DXY) has recovered above the 100 mark for the first time since early April, with short-term resistance at 102 and support around 100.20 [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.22 and 7.27, reflecting a stable outlook for the Chinese yuan [2] - The USD/JPY pair has seen an increase due to widening interest rate differentials and reduced risk aversion, with a focus on the 145.0-146.0 range for support and resistance [2] Group 4 - The market sentiment has improved due to the US-UK trade agreement and the US-China joint statement, but economic data and central bank policies remain key variables influencing the market [4] - Investors should closely monitor the details of the trade negotiations and US inflation and consumption data to adjust trading strategies accordingly [4] - The stability of the Chinese yuan is supported by both growth policies and eased trade tensions, presenting potential opportunities for medium to long-term investments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market may be on the verge of a reversal due to record short positions in the US dollar, with potential for a significant rebound if positive news arises from trade negotiations [1] - Speculators have reached the highest net short position against the dollar since the end of 2020, indicating a comprehensive bearish sentiment towards the dollar across both developed and emerging market currencies [1] - Technical analysts warn that such extreme market positioning could trigger a chain reaction if positive news forces short positions to cover, leading to a potential rebound in the dollar [1] Group 2 - A significant rebound in the dollar would have profound implications for global markets, particularly impacting emerging market currencies and commodities, with gold likely facing notable corrections [2] - Gold's high return/risk ratio makes it susceptible to cyclical declines, especially in the context of a strong dollar rebound [2]

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/08 | 4.380 | 4.545 | 3.239 | 2.532 | 3.582 | 3.174 | 0.253 | 3.332 | | 最新变化 | 0.109 | 0.087 | 0.045 | 0.059 | 0.035 | 0.046 | 0.057 | 0.038 | | 一周变化 | 0.170 | 0.037 | 0.003 | 0.013 | -0.045 | -0.006 | -0.135 | -0.015 | | 一月变化 | 0.194 | -0.069 | -0.158 | -0.078 | -0.283 | -0.168 | -0.153 | -0.201 | | 一 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is facing unprecedented challenges as Asian countries begin to sell off their dollar reserves, potentially leading to a massive $2.5 trillion sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Crisis Analysis - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire from Eurizon SLJ Capital highlight that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated a vast amount of dollar assets due to active international trade, which has created a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4]. - The ongoing trade war led by the U.S. has prompted Asian investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, potentially withdrawing funds to stabilize their domestic economies or to hedge against a weakening dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Vulnerability - Jen and Freire estimate that the dollar assets held by Asian exporters and institutional investors could be around $2.5 trillion, posing a significant downside risk to the dollar against Asian currencies [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% since reaching its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar in the past month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The New Taiwan Dollar has notably surged, with a single-day increase of 5%, marking the largest daily gain since 1988, and a year-to-date increase of nearly 8%, suggesting that Asian policymakers may be preparing to strengthen local currencies as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][5]. - Jen previously warned that if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts, around $1 trillion could flow back to China as Chinese companies sell off dollar assets [5].

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

黄金方面，周二黄金价格总体呈现上涨的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3434.61位置，最低下跌至3323.14位置，收盘于3430.31位置。针对周二黄金在早盘价格 依托日线支撑进一步上涨，随后早盘首次测试高点回撤618位置后调整，但是后续再度发力上涨突破，最终当天收盘在高位，日线大阳收尾，后续则需要关 注日线及四小时支撑区间看上涨。只有后续下破后才会进一步看承压。 宏观面 当前全球经济与政治局势错综复杂，对市场与国际关系影响深远。经济上，美国面临多重压力。2 年期国债收益率下行，受贸易逆差和企业悲观展望影响， 市场担忧贸易战冲击。交易员预计美联储今年三次降息，首次或在 9 月，但投资者仍忧心政策不宽松，市场前景不明。国际经贸合作有新进展，印英达成贸 易协议，英美也将签协定，英部分商品可免特朗普加征关税。能源市场，欧佩克 + 超预期增产致油价下跌，沙特警告过剩成员国，哈萨克斯坦考虑履约。 政治领域，乌克兰批准与美矿产协议草案，阿曼与美、也门达成护航行自由协议，英国政府坚持削减福利政策。后市方面，市场关注美联储政策决定，预计 本次利率不变但未来存变数。同时，以色列与胡塞武装、印巴间的冲突摩擦，让地缘局势紧张，投资者需 ...

刚过去的长假，金融市场掀起惊涛骇浪，最刺眼的莫过于人民币的狂飙式升值。这看似利好的表象下，实 则暗潮汹涌，一场资本的博弈早已悄然展开。 一、强方兑换保证，五年一遇的市场信号 别以为只有人民币备受瞩目，外资对港币的 "偏爱" 更是有过之而无不及。5 月 3 日，港币一头扎进强方兑 换保证区间。这可不是什么简单的汇率波动，背后的门道深着呢！港币与美元联动，汇率锁定在 7.75 - 7.85 之间，一旦港币触及 7.75，国际市场需求仍高烧不退，港村就得紧急释放大量港币 "接盘" 美元，这就是强 方兑换保证机制。 这可是实打实的资产牛市信号灯！上一次亮起还是 2020 年 10 月 28 日，当时恒指在 25000 点左右徘徊，短 短 3 个月后，直接飙升到 3 万多点。5 月 2 日，港股也确实牛气冲天，单日涨幅达 1.74% 。但别忙着欢 呼，难道就此就能断定港股要带着 A 股一路狂飙？太天真了！长假期间，外资惯用的伎俩就是提前潜入， 等假期结束，反手就把筹码甩给南向资金。果不其然，长假一结束，港股开盘就开始 "表演" 上下震荡，涨 势戛然而止。 记住，当市场看似一片繁荣时，恰恰是最危险的时刻。你以为看到了全部 ...