个股方面，王子控股、大成建设、任天堂等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王子控股 | 722.2 | 4.12% | 7326亿 | | 3861.T | | | | | 大成建设 | 8280.0 | 3.37% | 15166亿 | | 1801.T | | | | | 任天堂 | 12850.0 | 3.30% | 16.69万亿 | | 7974.T | | | | | 东京煤气 | 4865.0 | 2.55% | 18054亿 | | 9531.T | | | | | 鹿岛建设 | 3746.0 | 2.52% | 19803亿 | | 1812.T | | | | | CYBERAGENT | 1545.5 | 2.38% | 7828亿 | | 4751.T | | | | | 斯巴鲁 | 2565.5 | 2.21% | 18807亿 | | 7270.T | | | | | 东京建筑 | 2712.5 | 2.11% | 5674亿 | | 8804.T | | | | | 保谷光学 | 16905.0 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in dividend asset allocation, with the first Hong Kong Stock Connect low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) achieving ten consecutive days of gains and a year-to-date share increase of 119% [2][4] - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index has shown strong resilience, with a cumulative increase of 24.85% over the past year, significantly outperforming the CSI Dividend Index (-0.26%) and the CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index (12.53%) [3][4] - Southbound capital has been a significant driver of this trend, with net inflows exceeding HKD 630 billion this year, accounting for over 80% of the total for 2024 [4][5] Market Dynamics - The low-interest-rate environment and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have enhanced the appeal of Hong Kong dividend ETFs, which offer a dividend yield of 7.13% and low volatility [4][5] - Institutional investors are increasingly optimizing their dividend strategies, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index yielding 8.1%, well above the 10-year government bond yield [5][6] - The demand for dividend assets is expected to grow as long-term capital, such as insurance and social security funds, enters the market, driven by favorable policies and a shift towards long-term value creation [7][8] Investment Strategies - Fund companies are enhancing dividend product designs to improve investor experience, such as the low-cost structure and monthly dividend mechanisms of the Hong Kong low-volatility dividend ETF [5][6] - Long-term investment in high-dividend stocks is supported by the stability of companies' earnings and their willingness to distribute dividends, particularly in sectors like banking, utilities, and mature industries [6][7] - The trend of insurance capital acquiring Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue, with over 90% of new investments directed towards this market, indicating a strong preference for dividend stocks [7][8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "百元转股溢价率" (Premium Rate per 100 Yuan Conversion) **Model Construction Idea**: Compare convertible bond valuation with equity valuation using historical percentile metrics to assess relative allocation value [4][15] **Model Construction Process**: Fit a cross-sectional curve of conversion premium rate and conversion value at each time point. Substitute conversion value = 100 into the fitted formula to derive "百元转股溢价率". Formula: $$ y_{i}=\alpha_{0}+\,\alpha_{1}\cdot\,{\frac{1}{x_{i}}}+\epsilon_{i} $$ Here, \( y_{i} \) represents the conversion premium rate of the \( i \)-th bond, and \( x_{i} \) represents the conversion value of the \( i \)-th bond [44] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a relative valuation perspective for convertible bonds versus equities [15] - **Model Name**: "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" (Adjusted YTM Minus Credit Bond YTM) **Model Construction Idea**: Adjust convertible bond yield-to-maturity (YTM) by removing the impact of conversion clauses to compare with credit bond YTM [4][15] **Model Construction Process**: $$ \text{Adjusted YTM} = \text{Convertible Bond YTM} \times (1 - \text{Conversion Probability}) + \text{Expected Conversion Annualized Return} \times \text{Conversion Probability} $$ Conversion probability is calculated using the Black-Scholes model, incorporating stock price, strike price, stock volatility, remaining term, and discount rate. The median of the differences between adjusted YTM and credit bond YTM is then computed: $$ \text{"修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" Median} = \text{median}\{X_1, X_2, ..., X_n\} $$ Here, \( X_i \) represents the difference between adjusted YTM and credit bond YTM for the \( i \)-th bond [45][46] **Model Evaluation**: Suitable for assessing relative allocation value between debt-heavy convertible bonds and credit bonds [15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 转股溢价率偏离度 (Conversion Premium Rate Deviation) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure deviation of conversion premium rate from fitted values to assess valuation differences [21] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Conversion Premium Rate Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium Rate} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium Rate} $$ Fitted values are determined by the cross-sectional curve fitting process [21] **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in comparing valuation across different convertible bonds [21] - **Factor Name**: 理论价值偏离度 (Theoretical Value Deviation) **Factor Construction Idea**: Assess price expectation differences using Monte Carlo simulation [21] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1 $$ Monte Carlo simulation considers conversion, redemption, downward revision, and repurchase clauses, simulating 10,000 paths at each time point using the same credit term limit rate as the discount rate [21] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive valuation perspective by incorporating multiple convertible bond clauses [21] - **Composite Factor Name**: 转债综合估值因子 (Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine conversion premium rate deviation and theoretical value deviation for enhanced valuation analysis [21] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank(Conversion Premium Rate Deviation)} + \text{Rank(Theoretical Value Deviation)} $$ **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates superior performance across various convertible bond categories [21] - **Factor Name**: 转债市场情绪捕捉指标 (Convertible Bond Market Sentiment Capture Indicator) **Factor Construction Idea**: Use momentum and volatility deviation to identify market sentiment [29] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank(20-day Momentum)} + \text{Rank(Volatility Deviation)} $$ **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in guiding convertible bond style rotation strategies [29] Model Backtesting Results - **"百元转股溢价率" Model**: Rolling three-year percentile at 47.4%, rolling five-year percentile at 50.9% [4][15][18] - **"修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" Model**: Current median value at -0.03% [4][15][18] Factor Backtesting Results - **转股溢价率偏离度 Factor**: Enhanced excess returns in the past four weeks for偏股,平衡,偏债 convertible bonds at 1.33%, 0.27%, and 0.04%, respectively [5][23] - **理论价值偏离度 Factor**: Demonstrates superior performance in偏股 convertible bonds [20][21] - **转债综合估值因子 Factor**: - 偏股转债低估指数: IR = 1.22, annualized return = 24.91%, annualized volatility = 20.39%, max drawdown = -22.83%, Calmar ratio = 1.09, monthly win rate = 63.64% [24] - 平衡转债低估指数: IR = 1.16, annualized return = 13.77%, annualized volatility = 11.87%, max drawdown = -16.04%, Calmar ratio = 0.86, monthly win rate = 60.23% [24] - 偏债转债低估指数: IR = 1.29, annualized return = 12.21%, annualized volatility = 9.45%, max drawdown = -17.59%, Calmar ratio = 0.69, monthly win rate = 56.82% [24] Style Rotation Backtesting Results - **转债风格轮动 Model**: - IR = 1.47, annualized return = 24.23%, annualized volatility = 16.54%, max drawdown = -15.54%, Calmar ratio = 1.56, monthly win rate = 65.91% [35] - Recent four-week return = 2.24%, year-to-date return = 26.75% [31][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the financial performance and market position of Rongzun International Holdings, indicating a significant decline in revenue and a high price-to-earnings ratio compared to industry peers [1][2]. - As of June 16, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7%, while Rongzun International Holdings' stock price increased by 13.64% to HKD 1.0 per share, despite a cumulative decline of 12% over the past month and 16.19% year-to-date [1]. - Financial data shows that for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, Rongzun International Holdings reported total revenue of HKD 39.08 million, a year-on-year decrease of 59.89%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 9.46 million, an increase in loss of 58.01% [1]. Group 2 - The company operates through three main subsidiaries in Hong Kong, focusing on renovation, extension, and civil engineering projects, including structural engineering and site preparation [2]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the construction industry is 9.2 times, while Rongzun International Holdings has a significantly higher ratio of 105.51 times, ranking 105th in the industry [1]. - The company is scheduled to disclose its fiscal year 2024 annual report on June 27, 2025 [3].

"张衡一号"02星 是国家民用空间基础设施中长期发展规划中 首颗地球物理场探测业务卫星 携带包括电场探测仪等在内 9种科学探测设备 主要用于对 全球电磁场、电磁波、电离层、中性大气层等 地球物理场范畴的相关参数 开展准实时监测 我国成功开展 首例侵入式脑机接口临床试验 近日 中国科学院脑科学与智能技术卓越创新中心 联合复旦大学附属华山医院 与相关企业合作 成功开展了 我国首例侵入式脑机接口的前瞻性临床试验 首颗地球物理场探测业务卫星成功发射 首例侵入式脑机接口临床试验成功开展 首座跨越黄河的铁路钢桁拱桥成功封顶 商用堆生产钇-90技术成功实现突破 上周末 被这些新突破"硬控"了！ 我国首颗地球物理场探测业务卫星 "张衡一号"02星成功发射 上周六 我国在酒泉卫星发射中心 用长征二号丁运载火箭 成功将电磁监测卫星"张衡一号"02星 发射升空 0:00 这是我国在地球物理场空间观测领域 探测能力建设的又一重大成果 进一步提升我国对重大自然灾害的 "天-空-地"立体监测能力 相当于一个巨大的钢铁杠杆 为主桥合龙提供承重和拉力 该大桥预计将于今年8月实现合龙 "钇"举突破 我国成功实现商用堆生产钇-90 上周日 经秦 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 行业研究丨专题报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 现房销售下，关注中建国际装配式 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 13 日，河南省信阳市住建局发布《关于加强商品房预售管理工作的若干措施（试行）》要 求今后新出让土地开发的商品房，一律实行现房销售。现房销售，是指房地产开发企业将已竣 工验收合格、具备法定交付条件并可直接办理产权登记的商品房向市场出售的行为。近年来， 多地积极探索推行现房销售，相关配套支持政策也在不断完善。 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 现房销售下，关注中建国际装配式 [Table_Summary2] 信阳明确全面落实现房销售，多地展开探索 信阳明确全面落实现房销售，多地展开探索。5 月 13 日，河南省信阳市住建局发布《关于加强 商品房预售管理工作的 ...

Global Economic Outlook - International financial institutions have recently downgraded global economic growth forecasts for this year, with the World Bank reducing its projection from 2.7% to 2.3% [1][3] - The World Bank's report indicates that nearly 70% of economies are experiencing a slowdown, with the potential for the average growth rate in the 2020s to be the lowest since the 1960s [1][3] Impact of Tariffs - The reports highlight that the U.S. tariff policies are not only hindering global economic growth but are also detrimental to the U.S. economy itself [1][6] - The OECD has also lowered its global growth forecast for the next two years to 2.9%, citing increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic policies as significant factors affecting business and consumer confidence [4][6] U.S. Economic Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4% for this year, with projections for 2024 and 2025 at 1.6% and 1.5% respectively [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, with a reported GDP shrinkage of 0.2% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in nearly three years [12][14] Consumer and Business Impact - New tariffs on steel-derived products, effective from June 23, are expected to increase prices for consumers significantly, with some products potentially tripling in cost [6][9] - The aggressive tariff policies have led to job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with estimates indicating a loss of 75,000 jobs since the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 [9][12] Trade Data Fluctuations - U.S. trade data has shown significant volatility, with a sharp decline in imports in April due to reduced demand from importers and increasing caution in the market [15] - The overall role of trade in the U.S. economy is expected to weaken, reminiscent of conditions seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis [15]

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]

Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced the implementation of the "Regulations on the Registration and Management of Individual Industrial and Commercial Households" starting July 15, which aims to standardize registration management and protect the legitimate rights and interests of individual industrial and commercial households, promoting their high-quality development [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 2.1% month-on-month decrease in the price of live pigs in early June, with the price at 14.1 yuan per kilogram [3] - The successful launch of the electromagnetic monitoring satellite "Zhang Heng No. 1" 02 by the Long March 2D rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center was reported, marking a successful mission [3] - The completion of the Taibai Mountain Tunnel, a key project of the Meitai Expressway in Shaanxi, was announced, paving the way for the expressway to be fully operational this year [3] International News - Japan's Nippon Steel Corporation announced that U.S. President Trump has conditionally approved its acquisition plan for an American steel company [4] - The Bank of Japan is considering reducing its quarterly government bond purchase scale by 200 billion yen starting in spring 2026 [4] - The third United Nations Ocean Conference, co-hosted by France and Costa Rica, concluded with the release of the "Nice Ocean Action Plan," emphasizing the global commitment to urgent actions for ocean protection [4] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Iran has not yet decided whether to participate in the next round of negotiations with the U.S. regarding the nuclear issue, with no substantial progress made in recent talks [4] Company News - GAC Group announced a commitment to ensure the healthy development of its dealers, stating that it will complete dealer rebate payments within two months to promote high-quality development in the automotive industry [4] - Pop Mart in South Korea decided to temporarily suspend offline sales of LABUBU plush toys and keychains due to potential safety concerns, prioritizing customer safety and service quality [5]

07:45 有哪些途径可以开拓、哪些举措应该强化？ 6月6日，浙江工业大学莫干山校区应届毕业生在校园内留影。新华社发（谢尚国摄）今年以来，我国在人工智能、高端制造、量子科技等领域用工需求旺 盛，催生大量新岗位，就业市场凸显出"智能+"特点。 "随着经济结构转型升级，就业市场呈现明显的行业分化趋势。"Unity中国首席营销官梁璐表示，AI、新能源、低空经济、芯片等战略产业对人才需求旺 盛，但企业更青睐具备跨领域能力的复合型人才，而非单一技能者。"毕业申"招聘平台公共事务部总监汪俊美补充称，数字经济、绿色能源、高端装备制造 等领域岗位热度持续攀升，而传统行业如建筑、纺织、零售等需求有所下降。"这一变化反映出社会对高附加值、适应型人才的迫切需求。" 2025届全国普通高校毕业生规模预计达1222万人，同比增加43万人。 今年就业市场呈现哪些新趋势？ 6月10日，在2025长春光博会光电领域尖端人才招聘会，应聘者查看招聘企业信息。当日，2025长春国际光电博览会·Light国际会议（简称2025长春光博会） 在长春东北亚国际博览中心开幕。新华社记者 张楠 摄面向新兴产业急需的知识和技能要求，教育部部署实施了高校学生就 ...