Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [4][6] Core Views - Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 349.1 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.6% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to increase its gold and copper production significantly by 2028, aiming to rank among the top three global producers in these metals [4] - The projected revenues for 2026-2028 are 475.6 billion yuan, 492.2 billion yuan, and 519.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 72.2 billion yuan, 76.3 billion yuan, and 85.5 billion yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, Zijin Mining's gold production reached 90 tons, a 23% increase year-on-year, with sales also up 23% to 83 tons [2] - The average selling price for gold in 2025 was 929 yuan per gram, with a cost of 275 yuan per gram, leading to a gross profit of 41.8 billion yuan, which is a 113% increase year-on-year [2] - For copper, the production was 1.09 million tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, with revenues of 57.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.1% increase [3] Future Projections - The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold and 1.2 million tons of copper in 2026, with significant contributions expected from new mining projects [3] - By 2028, Zijin Mining aims for gold production of 135 tons, copper production of 1.55 million tons, and lithium production of 295,000 tons, marking substantial growth in these areas [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 11.7, 11.0, and 9.8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5] - The report highlights a dividend payout of 30.8% for 2025, with total cash dividends amounting to 15.95 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The essence of the recent market decline is attributed to the rebound of the US dollar rather than a recession, with the US dollar strengthening following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, reversing the previous narrative of a weak dollar [2][16] - Prior to the conflict, the dollar was weak, leading to capital outflows from dollar assets, while US stocks underperformed globally; however, post-conflict, US stocks showed relative resilience as funds flowed back into the US [2][16] - The performance of sensitive markets to the dollar index saw greater declines after the conflict, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics driven by dollar liquidity redistribution [2][16] Group 2 - The US economy, characterized by a service-oriented structure, has a lower energy consumption per GDP compared to other economies, which has allowed it to withstand the impacts of the conflict better than energy-dependent manufacturing sectors in East Asia [3][29] - The global risk assets have underperformed relative to US assets, reflecting the US's control over the world order amidst the ongoing conflict, which has reversed the trend of dollar liquidity outflow [3][29] - The recent market dynamics suggest that the strong assets, particularly in the US technology sector, may be signaling a market bottom as they begin to correct [3][36] Group 3 - The pressure on the non-ferrous metals sector may be easing, as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening have become overly pessimistic compared to the Fed's own stance [4][40] - The current extreme market pricing regarding interest rate expectations indicates potential for recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector, as the previous fears of recession may not be justified [4][40] Group 4 - In the context of global energy security concerns, China's unique advantages in coal chemical and power equipment industries are becoming increasingly apparent, with its solar energy production capacity equivalent to a significant portion of the oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz [5][53] - China's manufacturing sector is currently undervalued compared to global peers, with PE valuation differentials at historical highs, indicating a potential for revaluation as export growth continues [5][55] - The internal demand in China is showing signs of recovery, with retail sales growth stabilizing, suggesting that consumption improvements are not solely reliant on policy stimulus [5][55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the rising oil prices and ongoing market panic are suppressing non-ferrous metals, but there is optimism for a comprehensive market for key metals in the future [27] - Nickel prices are expected to find support due to supply uncertainties from Indonesia, particularly with the slow approval process for nickel mining quotas [1] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising due to tight supply expectations stemming from export approval delays in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] - The report indicates that antimony prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [6] - Lithium prices are projected to maintain a strong performance supported by demand amid high oil prices [7] - The rare earth sector is facing tightening supply expectations, with stable demand from downstream industries [9] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply chains [11] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise further due to tightening domestic supply [13] - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt - As of March 20, LME nickel spot price was $16,770 per ton, down 3.29% from March 13, with total LME nickel inventory at 283,512 tons, a decrease of 0.40% [1] - The Indonesian nickel mining association has set the 2026 production quota at 260-270 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous year's quota [16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply tightness, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's export processes still facing delays [2][17] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with average prices for antimony ingots at 167,500 RMB per ton as of March 19 [6] - Supply constraints are expected to provide a bottom support for antimony prices [19] Lithium - Domestic lithium carbonate futures closed at 143,900 RMB per ton as of March 20, down 5.41% from March 13 [7] - The report notes that the Zimbabwean government has suspended all raw material and lithium concentrate exports, impacting supply [20] - Demand for lithium is expected to be supported by adjustments in export tax policies for battery products [20] Rare Earths - The average price of praseodymium oxide was 785 RMB per kilogram as of March 20, down 9.77% from March 13 [9] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to regulatory measures and stable demand from the magnetic materials sector [21] Tin - The LME tin spot price was $43,700 per ton as of March 20, down 8.86% from March 13 [11] - Supply uncertainties from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to support tin prices [12][22] Tungsten - Domestic tungsten prices are under pressure due to tightening supply, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 1,021,000 RMB per ton as of March 20 [13] - The report anticipates further price increases due to ongoing supply constraints [23] Uranium - Global uranium prices remain high, with the market price at $69.71 per pound as of January [15] - Supply tightness is expected to continue due to geopolitical factors and production delays [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of tin is neutral, and the price range is 320,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices were weakly affected by macro - sentiment, with increased positions and falling prices during the week, reaching below 330,000 yuan at one point and then recovering. The tense situation in Iran and inflation concerns have pressured the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Central banks such as the Federal Reserve have not cut interest rates, showing concerns about rising inflation. On the fundamental side, the short - term tightness in the tin ore end has not changed significantly, and the production of most domestic smelting enterprises is restricted by raw material supply. The restart of production in Wa State, Myanmar, also faces difficulties. In terms of demand, the replenishment demand in the spot market has recovered, and the spot premium is high, indicating a tight supply - demand situation in the tin ingot end. Inventory has significantly decreased. Currently, the weak macro - sentiment due to the ongoing Iran issue conflicts with the short - term fundamental resilience of tin. There is certain support around 320,000 - 340,000 yuan, but in the context of weak macro - sentiment, it is necessary to pay attention to the stabilization of overseas equity markets and the non - ferrous sector. If it stabilizes, tin prices still have a good chance of recovery in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 2,250 yuan/ton. Recently, the Baltimore premium has decreased [11][16] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, in the tin monthly structure, the 01 - 02 shows a B structure [20] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,380 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 2,787 tons. The LME inventory slightly increased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 7.96% [28][33] 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled capital of Shanghai tin is 2,681.27 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days is in the outflow direction [38] 3.1.5 Transaction Volume and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the open interest decreased. The trading volume of LME tin increased, and the open interest decreased [40][45] 3.1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded [50] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In December 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%. In February 2026, the import volume was 17,144 tons, a year - on - year increase of 96.04%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 88.01%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 16,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level rebounded [54][55] 3.2.2 Smelting - In February 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 11,490 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.22%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.51%, a decrease from last week [61][63] 3.2.3 Import - In February 2026, the domestic tin ingot import was 2,168 tons, the export was 1,216 tons, and the net import was 952 tons. Among them, the tin ingot imported from Indonesia to China was 1,510 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 3,114 yuan/ton [70] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In February 2026, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 12,442 tons, and the actual consumption was 10,176 tons [78] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in February decreased to 39%. The output of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in December slightly increased, and the sales volume slightly decreased [81] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products such as integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances increased. The household appliance consumption increased month - on - month, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded [88][90][96]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 22 年 月 日 紫金矿业（601899.SH） 金铜与多金属共振，向超一流国际矿业巨头迈进 公司发布 2025 年年度报告。2025 年实现营业收入 3491 亿元，同比增长 15.0%，归母净利润 517.8 亿元，同比增长 61.6%；2025Q4 实现收入 948.8 亿元，同比增长 29.5%，环比增长 9.7%，归母净利润 139.1 亿元，同比 增长 80.9%，环比下滑 4.52%。2025 年公司现金分红总额 159.5 亿元， 股利支付率 30.8%。 矿产金：2025 年产量同比增长 23%，业绩增长贡献显著。 产销量：2025 年产量 90 吨，同比+23%，销量 83 吨，同比+23%。Q4 产量 25.1 吨，环比+5.5%，销量 22.9 吨，环比+4.0%。 售价&成本：2025 年成本 275 元/克，同比+19.3%，Q4 成本 293 元/克， 环比+4.8%，单价 929 元/克，环比+20.9%。 业绩：2025 年实现收入 647 亿，同比+83.3%，毛利 418 亿，同比+113%， 毛利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends, alongside the supply-demand balance [2] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - Gold prices have decreased significantly, with SHFE gold down 8.97% to 1,039.22 CNY per gram and COMEX gold down 11.26% to 4,492.00 USD per ounce [8] - Silver prices also fell, with SHFE silver down 18.69% to 17,625 CNY per kilogram [9] Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 11.82% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices dropped by 5.55% to 94,740 CNY per ton on SHFE, while LME copper fell 6.66% to 11,929.5 USD per ton [22] - Aluminum prices decreased by 3.77% to 24,020 CNY per ton on SHFE, and LME aluminum fell 6.53% to 3,215 USD per ton [10] - The report notes a significant reduction in inventories for various metals, with SHFE copper inventory at 41.1 thousand tons, down 5.15% [24] Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, noting that the U.S. CPI for February was 2.4% year-on-year, while China's CPI was 1.3% [28][29] Precious Metals - The report highlights ongoing low inventory levels for precious metals, which continue to disrupt market stability [48] Copper Market - The copper market is characterized by a "hardcore" supply-demand dynamic that provides price support, despite geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [10][62] Energy Metals - The lithium carbonate market shows strong demand, with continuous inventory depletion, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight supply [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased this week, with the average daily trading volume at 8.28 million lots and the average daily open interest at 9.05 million lots, showing a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The geopolitical impact in the Middle East led to a continued strong upward trend in commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors. Many varieties' implied volatility is at a high level in the past year, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - volatility opportunities [1][8][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased from March 16 to March 20, 2026. The average daily trading volume was 8.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.05 million lots, with a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The actively traded varieties included styrene (770,000 lots), methanol (650,000 lots), and silver (520,000 lots). Three varieties' trading volume doubled, namely asphalt (+368%), lead (+191%), and silver (+112%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were staple fiber (-84%), propylene (-84%), and caustic soda (-75%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (750,000 lots), cotton (550,000 lots), and corn (520,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in average daily open interest were asphalt (+154%) and p - xylene (+102%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Asset Price Movements**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors, continued to rise. The varieties with high weekly increases included LPG (+19.08%), ethylene glycol (+13.20%), and methanol (+11.66%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included silver (-15.76%), polysilicon (-10.17%), and tin (-8.45%) [2][17]. - **Market Volatility**: The geopolitical impact in the Middle East kept the market sentiment high. The implied volatility of 47 varieties was above the 80th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a significant increase in implied volatility included ethylene glycol (+14.27pct), gold (+11.49pct), and tin (+10.01pct); the varieties with a significant decrease in implied volatility included pure benzene (-85.51pct), styrene (-54.17pct), and p - xylene (-36.17pct) [2][17]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: Currently, the trading volume PCR of silver, copper, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a downward trend; the trading volume PCR of oilseeds, LPG, soda ash, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an upward trend. The open interest PCR of PVC, asphalt, plastic, and soybean meal is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of live pigs, silver, polysilicon, and rapeseed meal is at a one - year low, indicating a bullish sentiment [3][18]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [24][25][26]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [30][31][33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [40][41][42]. - **Glass**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [49][50][52]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [58][59][60]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [66][71][68]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [75][76][77]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [84][85][86]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [92][93][95]. - **Aluminum**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [101][102][103]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [109][110][114]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [118][119][121]. - **Cotton**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [126][128][130].

Market Performance - As of March 20, 2026, the North Exchange 50 Index fell by 5.76% compared to the previous week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 2.19%[18] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-share component stocks is 2.799 billion yuan, with a daily average trading volume of approximately 15.907 billion yuan, down 19.37% from the previous week[18] - The turnover rate for North Exchange A-shares is 3.97%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, indicating better liquidity compared to other major markets[18] Investment Recommendations - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for North Exchange A-shares, ChiNext, Shanghai Main Board, Shenzhen Main Board, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board are 51.51, 71.44, 13.87, 41.19, and 216.33 respectively as of March 20, 2026[28] - Investors are advised to focus on stocks with better-than-expected performance and those with significant technological barriers and alignment with industrial policies in innovative growth sectors[28] Economic Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 14.2% year-on-year increase in the value added of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries for January and February 2026[10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims for the number of fuel cell vehicles in China to reach 100,000 by 2030, with hydrogen prices targeted to drop below 25 yuan per kilogram[11] New Listings - Zuxing New Materials (stock code: 920078.BJ) was listed on March 18, 2026, focusing on aluminum pigments and fine spherical aluminum powder[25] - Xinhengtai (stock code: 920028.BJ) was listed on March 20, 2026, specializing in functional polymer foaming materials[26]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations on March 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 4015 points during the day [1][4] - The afternoon session saw the index maintain its oscillation, with sectors such as oil, coal, gas, and electricity performing well, while precious metals, non-ferrous metals, energy metals, and agricultural chemicals lagged [1][4] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently 16.78 times and 48.70 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][5] - The total trading volume on March 19 was 21,275 billion yuan, which is above the median of the daily trading volume over the past three years [2][5] - Key pressures on the market stem from overseas factors, particularly escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have led to global market volatility and concerns over "stagflation" due to rising oil prices [2][5] - The expectation of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields are putting valuation pressure on global equity assets, especially high-valuation technology growth stocks [2][5] - Domestic macroeconomic policy is becoming clearer, providing a solid bottom line for the market, with the central bank indicating a flexible approach to reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2][5] - The market is expected to maintain a slight oscillation, and investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [2][5] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the electricity, coal, oil, and gas sectors [2][5]

Group 1 - The article focuses on the recent updates in various data dashboards, highlighting key trends in different industries [2] - It emphasizes the capital expenditure changes of leading global cloud providers such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Alibaba, particularly in the AI infrastructure sector [4] - The article tracks sales dynamics of 17 domestic and international pet food brands on major platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and JD, analyzing market trends in the pet food industry [5] Group 2 - Monthly tracking of the mechanical industry’s sectoral prosperity changes is covered, including specialized equipment, general equipment, industrial software, and robotics [7] - The article includes a high-frequency tracking of tantalum ore, tantalum metal, and pentoxide prices, providing insights into core product price dynamics [9]