882 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Title] 关税政策反复横跳，618 抢先购服装行业增长 强劲 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 30 日 ► 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 5 月 16 日晚 8 点，天猫淘宝 618 开卖，截止 5 月 26 日 天猫快消、服饰、运动户外、宠物、家享生活、汽车、企业 服务等多个行业 618 抢先购全周期成交榜发布。官方披露的 战报显示，抢先购期间天猫服饰行业增长强劲，优衣库、 UR、蕉下等多个品牌成交破亿，近 345 个品牌成交破千万， 近 3090 个品牌成交破百万，此外，约有 1088 个品牌成交同 比超过500%：1）天猫服饰TOP3分别为优衣库、UR、蕉下； 2）女装销售 TOP3 分别为优衣库、UR、ZARA；3）男装销售 TOP3 分别为优衣库、海澜之家、HAZZYS；4）男女鞋销售 TOP3 分别为 crocs、百丽、staccato；5)内衣销售 TOP3 分 别为 ubras、维秘、蕉内；6）运动户外销售 TOP3 分别为 FILA、NIKE、Lululemon；7)箱包服配销售 TOP3 分别为 coac ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Jian Sheng Group has shown a positive stock performance with a recent increase in share price and has actively engaged in employee stock purchase and share buyback programs [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of May 30, 2025, Jian Sheng Group's stock closed at 8.97 yuan, up 1.93% from the previous week [1]. - The stock reached a high of 9.07 yuan and a low of 8.75 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 3.168 billion yuan, ranking 20th out of 30 in the textile manufacturing sector and 4031st out of 5146 in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Employee Stock Purchase Plan - Jian Sheng Group has completed its 2025 employee stock purchase plan, acquiring a total of 1,285,200 shares, which represents 0.36% of the total share capital [1][3]. - The average purchase price was 8.94 yuan per share, with a total transaction amount of approximately 11.50 million yuan, including transaction fees [1]. Group 3: Share Buyback Program - The company executed its first share buyback on May 30, 2025, repurchasing 400,000 shares, which is 0.11% of the total share capital [2]. - The buyback was conducted at a maximum price of 9.04 yuan per share and a minimum price of 8.97 yuan per share, with a total expenditure of approximately 3.60 million yuan, excluding transaction fees [2]. - The total funds allocated for the buyback range from 50 million to 100 million yuan, with a maximum buyback price set at 15.33 yuan per share, and the buyback period is from April 15, 2025, to April 14, 2026 [2].

Key Points - The company, Zhongwang Fabric Co., Ltd., will hold its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on June 17 at 14:30 [1][3] - The meeting will take place at the conference room on the first floor, No. 68, Beisha East Road, Donghu Street, Linping District, Hangzhou [1] - Shareholders can participate in voting through the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online voting system, with voting available from 9:15 to 15:00 on the day of the meeting [1][4] - The meeting will include both on-site and online voting methods [3][4] - Shareholders must register to attend the meeting, providing necessary identification and documentation [5][6] - The company has specified that shareholders holding multiple accounts can vote through any of their accounts, but the voting results will be based on the first vote cast [5][6] - The agenda for the meeting includes non-cumulative voting proposals that have been approved by the company's board [2][3] - The company has outlined the procedures for proxy voting, including the need for authorization documents [6][7]

Group 1 - The overall quality of companies waiting for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is high, with an average net profit of 89.67 million yuan for 94 companies, significantly higher than the average of 42.11 million yuan for 266 listed companies [3][15][17] - The average subscription rate for companies that raised over 200 million yuan is 0.14%, compared to 0.06% for those that raised less than 200 million yuan, indicating a correlation between fundraising size and subscription success [14][21] - The expected new stock subscription yield for 2025 is estimated to be between 4.8% and 10.80%, based on various assumptions regarding market conditions and investor participation [20][21] Group 2 - The BSE 50 index experienced a decline of 3.68% this week, closing at 1370.04 points, following a previous high of 1500 points, indicating potential volatility in the market [4][25][29] - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares has decreased to 48.45X, with 53.79% of companies having a PE ratio exceeding 45X, suggesting a high valuation environment [22][26][27] - The five major industries on the BSE, including high-end equipment and information technology, have varying PE ratios, with information technology at 92.82X, indicating sector-specific valuation disparities [32][34] Group 3 - The average first-day price increase for newly listed companies from January 1, 2024, to May 23, 2025, is 303.91%, with the highest recorded increase being 731.41% for Tongguan Mining [44] - The IPO review process is active, with two companies awaiting approval and two newly accepted for review, reflecting ongoing market activity [5][42] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with stable performance and reasonable valuations, particularly those classified as "little giants" in their respective sectors [39][41]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that Tmall and Taobao platforms experienced negative growth in various categories in April 2025, with the highest growth seen in Jin Hong Group [7] - Deckers reported a 16.3% revenue increase to $4.986 billion for FY2025, with operating profit rising by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin increase of 2.3 percentage points to 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue decreased by 4% to $9.504 billion for FY2025, with a net loss of $190 million, although the loss narrowed compared to the previous year [16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Tmall and Taobao platforms saw negative growth across categories in April 2025, with Jin Hong Group showing the highest growth [7] - Deckers' FY2025 revenue grew by 16.3% to $4.986 billion, with operating profit increasing by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin of 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue fell by 4% to $9.504 billion, with a net loss of $190 million, but the loss was less than the previous year [16] - Amphenol's Q1 2025 revenue was $1.473 billion, with a net profit increase of 2539.22% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel industry saw a decline in stock performance, with the SW textile and apparel sector down 1.31% [20] - The cotton price index in China increased by 0.29% as of May 23, 2025, while the medium import cotton price index rose by 1.06% [30] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests short-term recommendations for companies with high U.S. revenue exposure and significant prior declines, while mid-term recommendations focus on companies with high overseas exposure [18][19] - Long-term recommendations include companies with growth potential, such as Zhejiang Natural and Kai Run Co., which have favorable market positions [19]

Core Points - Lutai Textile Co., Ltd. plans to engage in derivative trading to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations [1] - The total amount for the derivative trading business is capped at 72.356 million USD, with a trading period from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026 [1] - The company aims to enhance financial stability and reduce operational risks through this initiative [1] Company Overview - As of May 23, 2025, Lutai A shares closed at 6.29 CNY, down 1.41% from the previous week [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of 5.141 billion CNY, ranking 8th in the textile manufacturing sector and 2779th among all A-shares [1] - The highest intraday price recorded during the week was 6.46 CNY, while the lowest was 6.29 CNY [1] Derivative Trading Details - The derivative trading will utilize financial instruments such as forwards, futures, swaps, and options [1] - The trading will be conducted with qualified financial institutions, using the company's own funds [1] - The company has established a management system for securities investment and derivative trading, including risk control measures and professional personnel [1]

Macro and Strategy - April fiscal data shows tax revenue returning to positive growth at 1.9% YoY, while general expenditure growth accelerated to 12.9% YoY [8][9] - Key tax categories showed mixed results, with personal income tax growing significantly at 9% YoY, while corporate income tax declined to 4% YoY [8][9] Textile and Apparel Industry - Textile manufacturing continues to benefit from inventory optimization and order rebound, with revenue growth of 13.7% YoY in 2024, while apparel and home textiles saw a slowdown to 1.0% YoY [9][10] - In Q1 2025, textile manufacturing growth slowed to 8.2% YoY, while apparel and home textiles faced a 5.1% decline in revenue [9][10] - Major companies in manufacturing, such as Huayi and Shenzhou, reported strong orders and better profitability, while sports brands showed resilience compared to casual wear [9][10] Pharmaceutical Industry - Q1 2025 saw overall revenue growth slow for overseas pharmaceutical companies, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showing significant growth driven by GLP-1 drugs [15][16] - The U.S. drug pricing reform and macroeconomic uncertainties are impacting revenue forecasts for major pharmaceutical firms [15][16] Computer Industry - Major domestic companies like Alibaba and Tencent are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [17][18] - There is a growing demand for computing power rental services, with several companies announcing related orders [17][18] Automotive Industry - April 2025 saw a total vehicle production and sales of 2.619 million and 2.590 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% [19][20] - New energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of total new vehicle sales, with production and sales growth of 43.8% and 44.2% YoY [19][20] - The market is witnessing a shift towards autonomous driving technologies, with Robotaxi commercial deployment accelerating [20][21] Building Materials Industry - The recent government policy is expected to accelerate urban renewal projects, benefiting local construction and decorative renovation companies [22][23] - Cement prices have seen a slight decline, while demand remains weak, indicating a cautious market outlook [23][24] Smart IoT Industry - The company focuses on IoT solutions and is expanding into AI infrastructure, with significant revenue contributions from its various business segments [26][27] - The global AI server market is projected to grow rapidly, driven by increasing demand for AI training and inference [28] Travel Industry - The company reported a 16.2% increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with strong growth in domestic hotel bookings and international travel [29][30] - The international platform is experiencing rapid growth, benefiting from favorable policies and increased travel demand [30][31] Gaming and E-commerce Industry - The company achieved a 30% revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and digital financial services [33][34] - The gaming segment also saw significant growth, with a notable increase in user engagement and revenue from popular titles [36][37]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The consumer sector in China is exhibiting a "weak beta alpha" characteristic in 2025, making it easier for institutional investors to identify individual stock opportunities, particularly in the beauty and personal care segment which has seen significant gains due to favorable policies and market recovery [1][4] - The consumer industry is experiencing notable sub-sector differentiation, with emerging consumption trends in areas such as pet products, skincare, and IP-related products performing well, while traditional sectors like certain liquor and seasoning products are declining [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The food and beverage industry is showing clear signs of differentiation, with health products like ergothioneine gaining popularity, and the dairy sector potentially reversing its cycle as milk prices are expected to rise [1][6][7] - The small food sector is also experiencing structural differentiation, with companies like Youyou Foods and Yanjin Puzhi leveraging new channels, while innovative categories like konjac products are gaining attention [1][8] - The beauty and home care segment is performing strongly, with companies such as Juzhi Biotechnology, Shangmei Runben, and others expected to see growth rates of around 30% [1][10] Emerging Trends - The agricultural market is focusing on four main areas: the pet market with high growth rates, the reversal of the meat and dairy cycle, post-breeding cycles, and animal health companies [1][12] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is benefiting from interest-driven consumption trends, with leading IPs expanding their market presence. Companies like Pop Mart are recommended due to their comprehensive industry chain layout and successful overseas market penetration [1][13][14] Additional Important Insights - The chain discount sector is improving efficiency by eliminating intermediaries, leading to lower prices and smoother distribution, with companies like COPA and Wan Cheng showing potential [1][9] - The home care product competitive landscape is changing significantly, with new entrants like Duowei sanitary napkins achieving high sales on launch [1][11] - The tea beverage sector is seeing a resurgence, with frequent IPOs and strong performance from leading companies like Mixue Ice City, which is expanding its market presence [1][15] Investment Opportunities - The home appliance industry is witnessing opportunities driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI applications and robotics, with companies like Midea and Gree leading the charge [1][16][17][18] - Other new consumption sectors worth noting include capital economy-related stocks and the electronic cigarette market, as well as various "AI+" related segments [1][19] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is positive, with various sub-sectors showing potential for growth and investment opportunities, driven by changing consumer preferences and favorable economic policies [2][3]

智通财经APP获悉，专注于纺织制造智能化的可持续时尚科技公司Smartex已获得包括H&M、亚马逊 (AMZN.US)AWS 和iPod发明人Tony Fadell在内的知名机构和投资人的投资，融资总额超过4000万美 元。这家科技公司致力于用技术改造传统行业，其解决方案不仅提高了生产效率，还帮助时尚品牌更好 地追踪供应链数据，推动整个行业向绿色、智能化转型。 据悉，当Smartex的创始人Gilberto Loureiro还是个青少年时，他暑假期间曾在一家纺织厂工作，由此对 服装生产产生了"又爱又恨"的复杂情感。那份工作非常辛苦：Gilberto Loureiro的任务是整天站着盯着机 器上以每分钟15至20米的速度运行的织物，观察其中是否有缺陷。他表示："我真的很喜欢纺织业和解 决问题的过程，但我讨厌这种检验的工作方式，以及由此带来的低效和浪费。这绝对是世界上最艰难的 工作之一。" 自从Gilberto Loureiro十年前第一次踏上工厂车间以来，他的心态发生了转变。在获得物理学硕士学位 后，他共同创办了Smartex。这家科技公司利用摄像头、视觉软件和人工智能在面料生产过程中检测缺 陷，从而减少面料浪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q1 FY25, with revenue reaching 700 million Swiss Francs, a year-on-year increase of 40% (currency neutral), while net profit decreased by 38% to 60 million Swiss Francs [1]. - The gross margin slightly increased to 60%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin rose by 1 percentage point to 17% year-on-year [1]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance, projecting revenue of 2.86 billion Swiss Francs, a year-on-year increase of 28%, up from the previous estimate of 27% [2]. - The company is benefiting from a strong multi-channel strategy and successful product launches, which have contributed to robust demand across all regions and product categories [1][2]. Financial Performance - For FY25, the company expects EPS of 3.4, 4.0, and 4.7 Yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times respectively [4]. - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 33% in EMEA, 29% in the Americas, and a remarkable 129% in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. - The inventory as of March 25 was 400 million Swiss Francs, reflecting a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, indicating a potential need for replenishment [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong positioning with key clients, particularly ON, which has shown impressive performance and light inventory levels, positively impacting order expectations [2]. - The company is actively monitoring tariff developments and has prepared various response strategies while maintaining close communication with clients [3]. - The production capacity remains stable, with no significant changes planned in the short term, as the company continues to build factories in Vietnam and Indonesia according to established timelines [3].