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智利5月锂盐发运显著回落,关注矿价能否企稳
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 11:43
周度报告—碳酸锂 、smingfTable_Title] 智利 5 月锂盐发运显著回落, 关注矿价能否企稳 | [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] | 碳酸锂:震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 6 8 | 年 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★智利 5 月锂盐发运显著回落,关注矿价能否企稳 上周锂盐价格震荡持稳。LC2506 收盘价环比+1.6%至 6.08 万元/ 吨,LC2507 收盘价环比+1.1%至 6.04 万元/吨;溧阳中联金碳酸 锂近月合约收盘价环比+1.4%至 6.0 万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格 延续弱势,SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比 -1.6%、-1.5%至 6.21、6.73 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、仍是 0.16 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格升水环比收 窄至 0.19 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 据智利海关,5 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 1.70 万吨,环比 -31%,同比-31%;其中对中国出口 0.97 万吨,环比-38%,同比 -46%,考虑船 ...
碳酸锂这次真的见底了吗?
经济观察报· 2025-06-08 07:06
Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced a dramatic decline, dropping nearly 90% from its peak of 570,000 yuan/ton in November 2022 to around 60,000 yuan/ton by June 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of the lithium industry and its impact on related companies [1][6]. Price Trends - As of June 6, 2025, the main contract for lithium carbonate rose by 0.23% to 60,440 yuan/ton, marking the first weekly gain in two months [2]. - Despite the futures market showing signs of recovery, the spot market continues to decline, with prices hitting a new low of 60,180 yuan/ton on June 6, 2025, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous week [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rapid increase in supply since 2023 has outpaced demand growth, leading to a significant drop in prices despite the ongoing demand for lithium carbonate driven by the electric vehicle market [9][22]. - The apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China is projected to grow from 667,000 tons in 2023 to 933,000 tons in 2024, indicating a continued demand increase [7]. Industry Expansion - The number of lithium mining concept stocks has surged from a few dozen before 2020 to 45 currently, reflecting significant capital inflow into the sector [12]. - Companies like Salt Lake Co. and Zijin Mining are expanding their production capacity despite the current price downturn, with Salt Lake Co. planning to double its capacity to 80,000 tons per year [15][16]. Cost Structure - The production costs for various lithium sources vary, with salt lake companies around 40,000 yuan/ton, while African and Jiangxi mines range from 60,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Salt Lake Co. claims a competitive edge with production costs as low as 35,000 yuan/ton, allowing them to expand even in a declining price environment [16]. Market Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about a near-term price recovery, citing ongoing supply surplus and high inventory levels in the market [24]. - The potential for high-cost production facilities to shut down could provide some support for prices, but the overall sentiment remains cautious regarding the industry's short-term stability [23][24].
碳酸锂这次真的见底了吗?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-08 06:49
经济观察报记者 邹永勤 经过连续九周的阴跌,碳酸锂期货价格正在迎来曙光。 广州期货交易所(下称"广期所")数据显示,2025年6月6日,碳酸锂主力合约上涨0.23%,以60440元/吨报收,单周(6月3日至6月6日,下同)涨幅约 1.07%。这是近两个月以来该品种周K线图的首次收阳。 对此,有市场人士指出,碳酸锂作为新能源车的核心原材料,其价格下跌使得车企有了降价的空间;而车价的下跌则会有效刺激销量,反过来提振对碳酸锂 的需求,从而形成正反馈效应。但问题是,为何在需求依旧增长的背景下,碳酸锂价格在这两年半时间里却出现了崩跌? 但现货市场似乎仍无见底迹象。根据万得数据,碳酸锂(99.50%电,国产,下同)6月6日报60180元/吨,单周下跌了500元/吨,再度刷新2021年2月份以来 的新低。 "虽然当前6万元/吨的价格已经跌破部分锂矿的成本区,但由于盐湖提锂和澳洲矿等因素导致行业边际成本不断下滑,所以不排除碳酸锂价格后市仍将继续 向下寻底的可能。"博时基金权益投资四部投资总监助理兼基金经理郭晓林在6月6日接受经济观察报采访时指出,除非能够出现高成本产能批量停产的情 况,否则碳酸锂价格短期内仍难以真正筑底。 从 ...
碳酸锂数据日报-20250606
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 07:31
种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 60708 H # 利 -1347 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 64355 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6488 玻利维亚法院暂停中俄锂矿合作项目。2025年 年 6 月 2 日,据报道玻利维亚乌尤尼盐沼(Salar de Uyuni)的锂矿开发计划遭遇重大挫折。 = IT 地科查卡(Coloha K)混合法院于上周作出裁决,暂停该国与中国、俄罗斯签署的两项大型锂矿开采协议。这两项协议签署于 2023 年至 2024 价值超 20 亿美元, 分别涉及中国 CBC 财团(成员包括电池制造商宁德时代 CATL) 和俄罗斯国家核能公司 Rosatom 子公司 Ura 旨在乌尤尼盐沼建设直接提锂(DLE)设施。乌尤尼盐沼是全球最大锂矿储量地区之一,与智利、阿根廷共同构成 "锂一用 H 短期偏弱为主. 1、供给端由于周内价格上涨,给到部分一体化工厂套保空间,碳酸锂周度产业有增加,材料需求较为平稳。2、 碳酸锂成本中性下移,双方形成负反馈,需要矿端出现减停产来打破,但目前暂未出现,是后续要重点观测的变量。 心理。 对原料采购需求个强。 员 免 告申的信息均源于公开可获 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:周度库存与产量小幅增长,需注意减仓引发波动-20250606
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 03:07
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 周度库存与产量小幅增长,需注意减仓引发波动 市场分析 2025年6月5日,碳酸锂主力合约2505开于60500元/吨,收于60100元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为244592手,持仓量为231588手,较前一交易日减少14062手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货贴水电碳100 元/吨。所有合约总持仓578419手,较前一交易日减少321手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少255341手,成交 量减少,整体投机度为0.49。当日碳酸锂仓单33321手,较上个交易日减少140手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年6月5日电池级碳酸锂报价5.94-6.1万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨, 工业级碳酸锂报价5.81-5.91万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。据SMM数据,碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持 续下移。5月下旬碳酸锂期货价格的阶段性反弹为非一体化锂盐厂提供了关键的套期保值机会,刺激6月供应端存 在恢复性增量预期,6月碳酸锂呈现供增需稳,过剩格局仍将持续。叠加港口锂矿石库存压力导致原料价格大幅下 跌,成本支撑减弱 ...
中矿资源20250605
2025-06-06 02:37
中矿资源 20250605 摘要 中矿资源计划对 2.5 万吨冶炼产线进行技改,预计耗时四个月,完成后 产能将提升至 3 万吨,加工费略有下降,预计年底投产。同时,矿山端 浮选厂维持每月约 3 万吨精矿的正常生产,并计划年底前落地 1 万吨硫 酸锂产线以降低成本。 公司主营业务预计四季度投产活法产线,纳米比亚铜冶炼厂因亏损将于 三季度停产,人员分流至锗冶炼厂。赞比亚铜矿项目按计划推进,预计 2026 年下半年投产,争取年底前完成爬坡,2027 年满负荷生产。 比基塔锂灰石含运费 CIF 成本约 500 美元,冶炼费约 1.7 万-1.8 万元。 公司通过预处理矿石、建设硫酸锂工厂和技改等措施降低成本,目标是 将完全成本降至含税 6 万元以内。 当前碳酸锂价格已跌至公司目标完全成本水平,公司需持续降本以应对 市场波动。行业价格和成本线接近,甚至低于成本线,但成本仍有下降 空间。短期内不排除价格进一步下跌,但长期来看,需求旺盛将推动价 格调整。 Q&A 今年中矿资源的生产和销售情况如何? 今年(2025 年)一季度,中矿资源的出货量为 9,000 吨,二季度前两个月出 货量约为 5,000 至 6,000 吨。全 ...
碳酸锂期货日报-20250606
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:10
行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2:碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货震荡偏弱,总持仓下降 321 手,多空博弈情绪仍较浓,日内现货重心 继续下移,电碳跌 50 至 60200,港口锂矿库存积压导致锂辉石矿价继续下跌,澳 矿跌 2.5 至 607.5 美元/吨,锂云母矿价持平,正极材料价格也在下跌,产业链降 价的趋势仍未改变。本周碳酸锂周度产量增 891 吨至 17471 吨,除回收端产量下 降之外其他原料端产 ...
天华新能(300390) - 300390天华新能投资者关系管理信息20250606
2025-06-06 01:47
证券代码:300390 证券简称:天华新能 苏州天华新能源科技股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-002 | 特定对象调研 | 分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | 媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | | 新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | | 现场参观 | | | | 其他 | | | | 长江证券 王筱茜、肖百桓、周相君;泉果基金 张诠;中银资管 | 王 | | | 瑾;永赢基金 郑州杰;兴全基金 刘洋;振兴嘉杰 陈鑫;国海富 | | | 参与单位名称 | 兰克林 覃晶晶;海富通基金 蒋旭杰;易方达基金 胡天乐;浦银 | | | 及人员姓名 | 安盛 凌亚亮;中意资产 张珈玮;华夏基金 石开;长城基金 | 任柯 | | | 宇;银河证券 刘兰程;瀛赐基金 黄昊;懿胜资产 李跃;创金合 | | | | 信基金 黄超 | | | 地点 | 宜宾市天宜锂业科创有限公司成都分公司会议室 | | | | 珣(董事会秘书) | | | 投资者关系活 | | | | 动主要内容介 | 紧密合作。逐步增加自有矿区的资源供给,提升优质锂精矿资源的 | | ...
碳酸锂数据日报-20250605
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 08:21
| | 锂云母 | 675 | | 电硕-工候价差 元/吨 | - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 - 申池级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) ( | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1185 | | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 5700 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 6640 | -50 | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | 3 | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 30315 | -20 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 144690 | -100 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 114875 | -30 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 122055 | -80 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 1600 | P | | | | 价 差 | 电碳-主力合约 ...
西北锂矿巨头“僵局”,资产打折也卖不动
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-05 04:08
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing sale of the equity of Baiyin Zabuyé Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. by Tibet Mining has faced significant challenges, with the price dropping from an initial 684 million yuan to 197 million yuan over six rounds of adjustments, reflecting a 71% decrease, yet still failing to attract buyers [1][10][12]. Group 1: Company Background and Sale Attempts - Tibet Mining, listed since 1997, is the largest comprehensive mineral product development company in Tibet, primarily engaged in the mining, processing, and trading of chromium and lithium ores [3]. - Baiyin Zabuyé was established in 2004 and began production in 2005, initially included in Tibet Mining's portfolio to capitalize on rising lithium prices [3][4]. - The company has been struggling with continuous losses due to technical bottlenecks and insufficient raw material supply, which have negatively impacted Tibet Mining's overall performance [4][13]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Market Conditions - The initial sale price of 684 million yuan was set in September 2022, but after multiple price reductions, it was lowered to 197 million yuan by December 2024, with the latest adjustment to 177 million yuan in June 2023 [5][10][11]. - The drastic price cuts reflect a significant shift in the lithium market, where lithium carbonate prices plummeted from nearly 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 to below 60,000 yuan per ton in 2023, leading to decreased investor interest in lithium-related assets [12][21]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Baiyin Zabuyé reported a revenue of 4.4858 million yuan and a net loss of 17.8234 million yuan as of June 30, 2022, with continued losses into 2023 [14]. - Tibet Mining's overall revenue declined by 22.76% in 2024, with a net profit drop of 31.79%, largely attributed to the underperformance of its lithium segment [14][19]. - The company's lithium product revenue accounted for 52.46% of total revenue in 2024, but it saw a 40.76% year-on-year decline, with a significant drop in gross margin from 94.89% in 2022 to 31.85% in 2024 [16][21]. Group 4: Strategic Implications and Future Outlook - The sale of Baiyin Zabuyé is seen as a strategic move to optimize resource allocation and alleviate financial burdens, but the lack of buyers raises concerns about the company's ability to offload this asset [18]. - If the sale does not materialize, Tibet Mining may face increasing sunk costs and operational challenges, further complicating its financial recovery [18][19]. - The company is also grappling with broader industry challenges, including a downturn in lithium prices and the need for technological innovation to maintain competitiveness [23][24].