Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ganfeng Lithium (002460) announced the approval of a proposal for Ganfeng International to issue exchangeable bonds to specific investors during the 11th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors [1] Group 2 - The announcement was made on the evening of November 30 [1] - The decision reflects the company's strategic move to raise capital through the issuance of exchangeable bonds [1] - This action may indicate Ganfeng Lithium's ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and support future growth initiatives [1]

周五（11月28日），锂矿股领衔反弹，有色金属板块大面积上涨。热门个股方面，盛新锂能涨超7%， 雅化集团涨超6%，厦门钨业、国城矿业涨超5%，兴业锡矿、中矿资源、白银有色等多股跟涨超3%。 热门ETF方面，揽尽有色金属龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内收涨1.72%，资金近10日加仓超2.3亿 元。月度复盘看，连涨6个月后，有色龙头ETF（159876）月线转跌，资金近期猛烈加仓，或为把握回 调机会。 展望后市，中信建投表示，站在当下，2026年依然看好有色再进阶，维持牛市格局！2006年"眉飞色 舞"需求终端指向"地产基建"，这一轮有色牛市需求终端指向"新质生产力"，我们更愿意称之为"新质生 产力牛市"，得益于我国的快速崛起以及巨大的产业优势，2026年新质生产力元素仍将维持牛市格局。 【周期风口已至，"有色牛"有望持续】不同的金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点不一致，分化在所难免，如 果看好有色金属，一个比较轻松的思路是通过全覆盖来更好地把握整个板块的贝塔行情。揽尽有色金属 行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）标的指数全面覆盖 铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂 ...

11月最后一个交易日（11月28日），三大指数集体红盘收官，沪指涨0.34%报3888.6点，创指涨0.7%。 市场交投较为清淡，全天成交1.6万亿元，量能降至近4个月地量水平。 | 序号 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | --- | --- | | 1 159876 主 有色龙头ETF | 0.885 c 1.72% 0.06% 2335.55万 | | 2 516020 主 化工ETF | 0.793 c 1.41% 0.19% 9718.70万 | | 3 512810 主 国防军工ETF | 0.677 c 1.04% 0.03% 4654.07万 | | 4 588330 宽 双创龙头ETF | 0.885 c 0.91% 0.02% 0.02% 4299.36万 | | 5 589520 5 | 主 科创人工智能ETF华宝 0.574 c 0.88% = 0.00% 3595.08万 | 盘面上，锂矿股领衔有色金属板块反弹，揽尽有色金属龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内收涨 1.72%。消息面，碳酸锂涨价，行业基本面改善趋势愈益明确。宏观方面，美联储降息预期重燃 ...

[Table_Rank] 走势评级： 碳酸锂：震荡 周度报告—碳酸锂 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★大厂复产临近，需求成色有待验证 大厂复产临近，需求成色有待验证 上周（11/24-11/28）锂盐价格呈震荡偏强走势。LC2512 收盘价 环比+4.0%至 9.46 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+4.0%至 9.46 万 元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+1.6%至 9.38、 9.13 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电 池级氢氧化锂均价环比分别+1.0%、+0.9%至 8.21、8.69 万元/吨。 电工价差环比+50 元/吨至 2,450 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池 级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔 650 元至 1.2 万元/吨。 上周盘面延续偏强运行，限仓政策使得主力合约加速换月至 05 合约。消息面上，周四晚自然资源部发布枧下窝采矿权变更受理 通知书，据自然资源部官网披露预计受理申请之日起 20 个工作 日内作出登记决定，符合规定的将颁发不动产权证书（采矿权）， 预计复产行动将在 12 月中旬左右启动，与我们此 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2026 年：消费端目前均较乐观，但实际兑现情况仍有待观察，整体供需格局预计有所好转，过剩量收窄。若消费端超预期，供应 端出现不可抗力，可能出现阶段性偏紧。预计 2026 年碳酸锂价格将会在 7-13 万元/吨运行，由于行业整体过剩收窄，价格重心会或出 现抬升，对于碳酸锂来说，整体波动幅度依旧较大，对于产业客户与投资机构，可把握周期性行情。 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩程度收窄 锂价重心或上移 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从 ...

研究员：兰雪 交易咨询：Z0018543 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 有色周报—碳酸锂 2025年11月30日 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 目录 1 观点综述 2 平衡表 3 基本面数据 技术面： 东亚期货 3 基本面要点： • 基本面信息1：周度库存降至11.6万吨（环比-2452吨），连续13周下降，产业链供需紧平衡。 • 基本面信息2：储能电芯满产满销，动力电池排产环比增长，终端新能源车与储能订单支撑强劲。 • 基本面信息3：江西枧下窝锂矿复产进程加速，潜在供应增量冲击市场情绪。 • 基本面信息4：现货价格攀升后下游采购转淡，以刚需为主。交易所限仓措施加剧多头获利离场。 • 观点： 基本面偏强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental improvements continue to boost bullish sentiment, and there is strong support during price pullbacks. However, there are significant differences in future demand expectations, and concerns about the sustainability of consumption at the end of the peak season still exist. The realization of energy storage demand next year depends on system costs and policy support. The rumored acceptance of the mining license change for the Jianxiawo mine is a short - term positive for the spot market, but it will be a long - term negative as supply increases. With deepening contradictions in lithium carbonate positions, prices fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options tools. In the future, attention can be paid to the battery cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere in the equity market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Futures and Spot Market**: On November 28, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 93,069 yuan in the morning, down 0.26% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 96,420 yuan, up 4.85% this week [12]. - **Supply**: On November 27, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,865 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week. In October 2025, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a 21.9% increase from the previous month and a 3% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 197,000 tons, a 4.9% increase year - on - year. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month. The amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a 4.5% decrease year - on - year and a 46.0% increase from the previous month [12]. - **Demand**: According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 23, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide reached 849,000 units, a 3% increase compared to the same period in November last year and an 8% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.998 million units, a 20% increase compared to the same period in November last year. From November 1 - 23, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 995,000 units, a 4% increase compared to the same period in November last year and a 13% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 13.051 million units, a 27% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: On November 27, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons (-1.7%) from the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 26.3 days. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts on November 28, 5,441 tons remained [12]. - **Cost**: The increase in lithium salt prices was transmitted upstream. On November 28, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 1,185 - 1,250 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 4.06%. In October, China imported 531,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 5.3% increase year - on - year and a 2% increase from the previous month. From January to October, China imported 4.9 million tons of lithium concentrate, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. From January to October, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 1.8% year - on - year (a 5.8% decrease in the first 9 months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased, and lithium ore imports have significantly supplemented the supply [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On November 28, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 93,069 yuan in the morning, down 0.26% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 96,420 yuan, up 4.85% this week [12][20]. - The average discount in the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market was - 1,650 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short position of the main lithium carbonate contract remained the same as last week [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,450 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 11,670 yuan [26][27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production** - On November 27, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,865 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a 5.7% increase from the previous month and a 54.6% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first 10 months increased by 43.2% year - on - year [32]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 57,150 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous month and a 74.0% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first ten months increased by 74.6% year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 12,720 tons, a 9.8% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative output in the first ten months increased by 17.8% year - on - year [35]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 15.7% to 13,840 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 9.9% year - on - year. Some salt lakes reduced production or stopped production, and the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, with limited reduction during the traditional production off - season. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in October was 8,550 tons, a 10.0% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 25.2% year - on - year [38]. - **Imports** - In October 2025, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a 21.9% increase from the previous month and a 3% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 197,000 tons, a 4.9% increase year - on - year. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month. The amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a 4.5% decrease year - on - year and a 46.0% increase from the previous month [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. Future growth in lithium salt consumption mainly depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited share and weak growth [45]. - From November 1 - 23, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide reached 849,000 units, a 3% increase compared to the same period in November last year and an 8% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.998 million units, a 20% increase compared to the same period in November last year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 995,000 units, a 4% increase compared to the same period in November last year and a 13% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 13.051 million units, a 27% increase year - on - year [48]. - From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.716 million units, a 27.6% increase compared to last year. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 1.232 million units, a 11.4% increase compared to last year. Subsequently, the subsidy for electric vehicles in the United States will be cancelled, and the penetration of new - energy vehicles will face pressure [51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in October, the sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 166.0 GWh, a 13.3% increase from the previous month and a 50.8% increase year - on - year. Among them, the sales volume of power batteries was 124.3 GWh, a 12.4% increase from the previous month and a 56.6% increase year - on - year; the sales volume of other batteries was 41.7 GWh, accounting for 25.1% of the total sales volume, a 15.9% increase from the previous month and a 35.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 1,233.2 GWh, a 55.1% increase year - on - year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of power batteries was 910.3 GWh, accounting for 73.8% of the total sales volume, a 49.9% increase year - on - year; the cumulative sales volume of other batteries was 322.8 GWh, accounting for 26.2% of the total sales volume, a 71.9% increase year - on - year [54]. - From January to October, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 50.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 18.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of battery materials in November will reach the annual peak, driving the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 3.5 Inventory - On November 27, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons (-1.7%) from the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 26.3 days. The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27 were 26,781 tons, a 0.5% decrease during the week. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts on November 28, 5,441 tons remained [64]. - The inventory of cathode materials is at a high level, and downstream demand is strong. The consumption of power batteries and energy - storage batteries is booming, and the inventory is at a recent low [67]. 3.6 Cost Side - On November 28, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 1,185 - 1,250 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 4.06% [74]. - In October, China imported 531,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 5.3% increase year - on - year and a 2% increase from the previous month. From January to October, China imported 4.9 million tons of lithium concentrate, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. From January to October, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 1.8% year - on - year (a 5.8% decrease in the first 9 months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased, and lithium ore imports have significantly supplemented the supply [77].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a broad-based rally driven by various sectors, including commercial aerospace, Fujian province stocks, lithium mining, and consumer goods, although the overall trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of strong buying momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector surged following the announcement of plans to build a space data center in Beijing, which is expected to integrate satellite internet, computing infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing [3][4]. - The Fujian province stocks gained strength due to the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes deepening state-owned enterprise reforms, a theme favored by short-term investors [5]. - The lithium mining sector rebounded due to a rise in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, although the sustainability of this price increase depends on terminal demand and global supply dynamics [6]. - The consumer goods sector showed activity linked to a policy aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, although recovery in consumer confidence remains slow [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall trading volume has decreased, revealing two key insights: a lack of strong buying interest and rapid rotation of market hotspots, with funds moving quickly between sectors in search of short-term catalysts [9][10]. - The number of stocks with consecutive gains reached eight, indicating a high level of short-term speculative activity, but also suggesting that these high-flying stocks could be vulnerable to quick sell-offs if market sentiment shifts [10]. - Institutional perspectives reflect caution, with expectations of limited upward movement in indices without significant volume support, indicating potential for market fluctuations and rotations [11][12][13][14]. Group 3: Conclusion - While policies can ignite market activity, the sustainability of trends relies on actual trading volume and the presence of strong market leaders, suggesting that many sector rallies may be temporary and dependent on external factors [15][16].

Group 1 - BlackRock increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (01772) by 18,443,505 shares at a price of HKD 48.0038 per share, totaling approximately HKD 885 million [1] - After the increase, BlackRock's total shareholding in Ganfeng Lithium is approximately 32,964,100 shares, representing a holding percentage of 7.39% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium mining stocks are rebounding, driven by rising prices of lithium carbonate, with significant gains observed in various companies and ETFs in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 28, lithium mining stocks led the rebound, with notable increases: Shengxin Lithium Energy rose over 7%, Yahua Group over 6%, and several others over 3% [1]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a broad increase, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) rising by 1.72%, and over the past 10 days, funds have increased by more than 230 million yuan [1]. - After six consecutive months of gains, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experienced a monthly decline, prompting significant recent fund inflows, possibly to capitalize on a correction opportunity [1]. Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - Lithium mining stocks are expected to continue benefiting from the rising prices of lithium carbonate, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 90,600-96,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that 2026 may mark a turning point for lithium carbonate supply and demand, driven by steady domestic demand and increasing energy storage needs [3]. - The lithium industry's darkest period is over, with a clear trend of improving supply and demand fundamentals [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data support expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - A Fed rate cut is anticipated to elevate the price levels of the entire non-ferrous metals sector, as it encourages investors to hold more tangible assets and makes metals cheaper in dollar terms [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CITIC Construction expresses optimism for the non-ferrous sector, predicting a continued bull market through 2026, driven by new productive forces and China's rapid rise [4]. - The current cycle is seen as a "new productive force bull market," with different metals experiencing varying degrees of demand and market dynamics [4]. - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, allowing for better risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].