来源：市场资讯 （来源：瑞达期货研究院） 瑞达期货研究院 事件概况： 2026年以来，美伊冲突成为原油上涨的最大驱动，且地缘溢价从"一次性冲击"转为"常态化溢价"，原油 价格呈现"易涨难跌、底部抬升"的趋势。美伊冲突事件呈现"危机升级-军事威慑-局部对抗-僵局维持"的 演变路径，从伊朗国内骚乱到美伊军事对峙，再到伊朗对外"宣称将在霍尔木兹海峡进行实弹海军演 习"，最终形成目前的战略僵局。 2026年春节期间（2月中旬前后），美伊关系呈现出 "谈判桌与航母战斗群并行" 的极度紧张态势。虽然 双方在阿曼举行了间接谈判，但局势并未缓和，反而因军事部署的完成而迅速升级。美伊谈判之际，美 伊双方谈判筹码以及为求达成谈判而使用的手段来说，美国为求达成谈判预计会采取持续的军事高压政 策并对伊朗展开军事打击，而伊朗也表示有在霍尔木兹海峡做军演的可能性，从而带来原油价格上的溢 价。 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 美伊冲突对原油价格的影响主要通过以下三个机制传导：即地缘政治风险溢价（直接影响油价的核心因 素）、霍尔木兹海峡航运安全（影响油价的关键变量）、伊朗原油出口变化（全球供应减少）。根据历 史数据，2025年6月"美伊冲突 ...

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所4月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌17美分，收于每桶66.31美元，跌幅为 0.26%；4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌27美分，收于每桶71.49美元，跌幅为0.38%。 国际油价23日微跌。 ...

Group 1: Market Influences - The key events impacting the market during the holiday include the Trump tariff situation, the "Robot + AI Technology Spring Festival Gala," the strong appreciation of the RMB to the 6.89 range, and escalating changes in the Middle East situation [1] - The "2026 Spring Festival box office surpassing 5 billion" is highlighted as an industry bright spot that will positively catalyze related A-share sectors [1] Group 2: Trump Tariff Situation - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by Trump under the IEEPA were unconstitutional, leading to a new 10% temporary import tariff effective February 24, with certain exemptions [3] - Analysts predict that the average tariff rate on China may temporarily decrease by 5 percentage points, while specific estimates suggest a potential 34% reduction in tariffs faced by mainland China [4] Group 3: Human-shaped Robot Industry - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala showcased several domestic humanoid robots, significantly boosting interest in the humanoid robot sector, with related stocks in Hong Kong experiencing a surge [5] - Reports indicate that the Spring Festival Gala has catalyzed significant attention and investment in the humanoid robot industry, with expectations for accelerated production and improved technology [5] Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB showed strong appreciation during the holiday, entering the 6.89 range against the USD, primarily due to a weakening dollar rather than a strengthening RMB [7] - Analysts forecast that the RMB could reach an extreme value of 6.8 against the USD, with long-term appreciation expected as a result of ongoing dollar weakness [7] Group 5: Middle East Situation - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with U.S. military forces gathering in the region, impacting oil prices positively [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation is expected to benefit sectors such as gold and oil, which may see short-term market opportunities [9] Group 6: A-share Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages express a cautious optimism regarding the A-share market post-holiday, with expectations of a "systematic slow bull" opportunity [10] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of the Spring Festival box office indicates a recovery in the film industry, recommending attention to quality film production companies and leading cinema chains [12]

美联储内部分歧加剧，降息预期生变 在2月23日期货日报全新打造的深度对话直播栏目"期货相对论"第二期中，全球帝纳波利点位交易法专 家、美国黄金率投资咨询有限公司总经理曾星认为，近期美国市场发生的两件大事对美联储未来的货币 政策路径及全球市场构成了潜在的重大影响。第一，美联储公布的1月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储 官员在利率前景问题上出现明显分歧，降息、暂停降息、加息三种可能性均被提及。第二，美国商务部 经济分析局（BEA）最新公布的数据显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国2025年12月核心PCE物价 指数同比增长3.0%，环比增长0.4%，均高于预期。目前，市场对美联储降息的预期减弱，甚至有交易 员认为可能会加息。 春节假期期间，全球宏观面不平静，美国关税政策突变、地缘冲突发酵等重大事件接连发生，引发主要 资产价格剧烈波动，这为节后国内市场开盘增添了几分不确定性。 春节假期间国际市场重大事件及外盘品种涨跌如何影响国内市场？哪些品种有补涨的机会？交易者该如 何应对？我们来看看专业人士的观点。 | 令和 | 2.13 | 2.23 | 价格波动 | 价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

进入2026年时，石油分析师的共识是，原油市场正进入一个深度供应过剩的时期，这可能会在今年全年 持续压制价格。2025年，随着过剩加剧，油价下跌约20%。然而，今年以来，在地缘政治冲击和强于预 期的需求双重作用下，油价却意外地出现了上涨。目前油价已高于六个月前的水平，高盛策略师在给客 户的一份报告中写道，这使得交易员们"聚焦于为何全球大规模供应过剩……这尚未转化为2026年迄今 布伦特油价的持续下跌"。 但分析师表示，这两个指标并不一定非得同步变动。 与此同时，美国对伊朗采取军事行动的可能性越来越大，这导致油价因全球关键咽喉霍尔木兹海峡可能 中断而飙升，该海峡每日约有2000万桶石油产品通过其水域。对红海商业航运的袭击已迫使油轮绕道非 洲好望角，收紧了实物交割市场，并增加了欧亚之间运输石油产品的运费成本。 需求也依然强于预期。 欧洲的制造业数据放缓被视为价格看跌信号，但强于预期的运输数据、世界其他地区的需求增长以及意 外的寒冷天气弥补了这一影响。随着中国延长其采购热潮，预计中国将很快上线更多存储能力。 与此同时，1月份美国就业数据远超预期，这是需求的另一个看涨信号，而OPEC+产油国联盟的产量仍 低于指引，因 ...

来源：期货日报 春节假期期间，全球宏观面不平静，美国关税政策突变、地缘冲突发酵等重大事件接连发生，引发主要 资产价格剧烈波动，这为节后国内市场开盘增添了几分不确定性。 春节假期间国际市场重大事件及外盘品种涨跌如何影响国内市场？哪些品种有补涨的机会？交易者该如 何应对？我们来看看专业人士的观点。 | 合约 | 2.13 | 2.23 | 价格波动 | 价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国内收盘 | 18时价格 | | 波动比例 | | CMX银 | 77.135 | 86.505 | 9.37 | 12.15% | | 美原油 | 62.83 | 66.18 | 3.35 | 5.33% | | 布伦特油 | 67.54 | 71.01 | 3.47 | 5.14% | | 美豆油 | 57.26 | 59.72 | 2.46 | 4.30% | | CMX金 | 4987.5 | 5170.8 | 183.3 | 3.68% | | 日胶 | 347.1 | 358.3 | 11.2 | 3.23% | | 美白糖 | 13.53 | 13.89 | 0.36 ...

Macro - The international financial market remained stable during the Spring Festival, with a significant event being the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump, which may reduce his influence on the global economy [2][17] - Trump is forced to impose a 15% tariff under the 1974 Trade Act, with a maximum delay of 150 days requiring Congressional approval, indicating increasing limitations on his trade policies [2][17] Stock Index - Chinese financial data shows proactive government financing and optimistic short-term liquidity, with a significant increase in non-bank institution deposits and a sharp decline in household deposit growth [3][18] - The technology sector remains a key focus, with AI and robotics gaining attention, while the U.S. stock market shows a mixed performance in AI, with companies like Nvidia and TSMC remaining stable [3][18] - A-shares are expected to rebound after the market opens, with themes like robotics, AI computing power, new energy, and aerospace remaining active [3][18] Oil - Oil prices during the Spring Festival were primarily influenced by U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, with the U.S. military's significant troop buildup in the Middle East being the largest since 2003 [4][19] - The negotiations have a time constraint, with the U.S. aiming for an agreement within two weeks, while Iran may conduct military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially increasing oil price premiums [4][19] - The cash premium for Middle Eastern oil has recently reached $1 per barrel, with rising freight costs, indicating a strong regional market compared to Europe and the U.S. [4][19] Fuel Oil - Post-Spring Festival, fuel oil prices are driven by geopolitical premiums and domestic resumption of work, with strong support from rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions [21][22] - Domestic demand for marine fuel is expected to gradually recover as work resumes, with low inventories in Singapore and Zhoushan leading to stronger spot prices [21][22] Asphalt - The stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations and military buildup has led to a more than 4% increase in Brent crude prices, raising the valuation of asphalt [23] - Logistics recovery and pre-stocking for infrastructure projects in southern China are expected to boost demand, with a positive market sentiment [23] Methanol - Geopolitical risks eased before the holiday, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices, but renewed tensions during the holiday may influence prices upward [24] Urea - India's RCF urea import tender received bids totaling over 3.07 million tons, with prices around CFR $512 to $508 per ton, indicating strong demand despite a significant price gap between domestic and international markets [8][25] - Domestic urea prices remained stable during the holiday, with slight increases from some manufacturers, and current inventory levels have normalized compared to historical averages [8][25] Copper - Future attention is required on specific measures regarding U.S. tariffs and potential aggressive trade or fiscal policies that Trump may adopt for the midterm elections [26] Aluminum - The London aluminum market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery during the Spring Festival, influenced by news of Trump considering the removal of aluminum tariffs [27] Gold and Silver - The release of December PCE data and January FOMC minutes suggests a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may exert downward pressure on gold and silver prices [28] Platinum and Palladium - Prices for platinum and palladium rose significantly during the Spring Festival due to increased market risk aversion stemming from uncertainties in U.S.-Iran relations [29] Cotton - The NCC projects a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in U.S. spring cotton planting area to 9 million acres, with strong export data supporting higher prices [30] Soybean Meal - Positive demand factors, including high crushing data and rumors of China purchasing 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans post-holiday, contributed to an upward trend in U.S. soybean prices during the Spring Festival [31]

来源：能源研发中心 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 在中国最重要的传统佳节，原油继续强势上攻，最大涨幅一度超6%，与金银等贵金属这些金融属性最 强的品种领涨大宗商品市场。根据统计石油市场正经历自2022年以来最强劲的年初开局，而驱动油价走 强的因素最核心的仍是来自地缘风险的不断发酵。 在春节假期期间，全球市场仍是风云变幻，二件重磅事件牵动着金融市场的每一个角落。一个是让特朗 普恼羞成怒破口大骂的美最高院裁定关说违法事件，2026年2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的投票结果 裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的对等关税、芬太尼关税等大规模加征关税措施违 法，认为其超越总统法定权限。裁决推翻了特朗普政府援引该法征收的所有关税，可能导致已征收的超 过1750亿美元关税需退还，实际关税税率从12.8%降至8.3%。对此，在裁决当日，特朗普签署行政令， 依据《1974年贸易法》第122条重新征收10%全球关税，期限150天，并计划启动更多贸易调查。关税变 化的影响市场仍需时间来评估，但整体利好非美资产。 第二件就是直接牵动油价的美国与伊朗之间就谈判和军事冲突之间的博弈，围绕 ...

2月23日，国际原油期货市场延续窄幅波动态势，两大基准原油合约均以小幅下跌报收。据新华社消 息，纽约商品交易所4月交货的轻质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌17美分，收于每桶66.31美元，跌幅为 0.26%；同期伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌27美分，收于每桶71.49美元，跌幅为0.38%。 整体而言，地缘政治风险溢价与全球贸易政策不确定性之间的博弈，构成了当前国际原油市场的核心背 景。在多空因素相互牵制下，油价短期内呈现出窄幅震荡的运行特征。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 需求端方面，印度1月原油进口量同比下降0.6%，至2110万吨。作为全球第三大原油进口国，印度进口 数据的边际变化一定程度上反映了亚洲主要消费国的采购节奏。 信达证券在2月10日发布的原油周报中指出："特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠 加哈萨克斯坦油田及美国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价下跌。周后期，美国击落一架伊 朗无人机，伊朗武装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美印达成贸易协议， 有望提振需求，国际油价反弹。"美伊 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 新兴市场 油价上涨推动拉美股市在动荡的一周中走高，第四季度财报季即将到来 拉美市场本周经历了动荡，地缘政治紧张局势加剧推高了油价，支撑了能源公司股价，而金属价格走软 则拖累了材料板块。在国内方面，秘鲁摆脱了政治动荡的影响，阿根廷在改革预期下依然波动。第四季 度财报季即将到来，这将是该地区财报季最繁忙的一周。与此同时，在海外，英伟达的业绩可能会考验 全球人工智能风险偏好。 印尼MSCI评级下调风险看似不大，但改革至关重要 印尼被MSCI从新兴市场降级的风险似乎不大。机械压力测试表明，仅靠流通股压缩不会违反MSCI的新 兴市场标准，而且印尼在市场准入方面得分仍然很高，表明其结构性门槛依然有效。目前正在进行的改 革旨在解决透明度问题，但在MSCI 5月份的评估之前，能否有效落实这些改革至关重要。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 印度股指横盘整理；市场脉搏指数显示中性 印度股市指数横盘整理，掩盖了整体市场的疲软态势。综合的BI印度市场脉搏指数徘徊在中 ...