Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market is gradually digesting the bullish factors of sanctions and Sino - US negotiations. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI (main contract) opened at $60.18, closed at $60.36, with a high of $61.02, a low of $59.7, a daily increase of 0.35%, and a trading volume of 25.06 million lots. Brent (main contract) opened at $63.9, closed at $64.3, with a high of $64.7, a low of $63.38, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 43.48 million lots. SC (main contract) opened at 461.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 458.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 466.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 45 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.07%, and a trading volume of 10.87 million lots [6]. - **Market Analysis**: EIA data showed that as of the week of the 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and gasoline and diesel inventories also declined. Overnight oil prices rebounded slightly. On the morning of the 30th, Sino - US leaders held direct talks, but the market reaction was muted [6]. 2. Industry News - **US President's Statement**: President Trump said that a very large - scale agreement might be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [7]. - **Shell's View**: Shell CFO believes there is a credible scenario of oil supply surplus in 2026 [7]. - **ANZ Bank's Forecast**: ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply [7]. - **US Sanctions**: On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft, along with their 34 subsidiaries. US citizens and enterprises are prohibited from trading with them, and entities with over 50% ownership are automatically restricted. These sanctions echo those of the UK on October 15 and the EU on October 23, which include a ban on short - term contracts for importing Russian LNG from April 2026 and a full - scale long - term ban from 2027 [7]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: Bloomberg, EIA, and wind, along with the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11][13] - **Data Charts**: Include global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][18]

The world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, may reduce its December crude price for Asian buyers to multi-month lows due to ample supplies, but demand to replace Russian supplies hit by Western sanctions could limit the cuts, sources said. ...

市公安局、商务局、交通运输局、应急管理局、市场监督管理局、税务局相关处室负责人，市石油流通行业协会相关负责人，省、市主流新闻媒体记者参 加会议。 通讯员扬应宣 扬子晚报/紫牛新闻记者裴睿 公安部门搭建"非法加油线索挖掘模型"，精准锁定高风险目标，破获涉油刑事案件18起，抓获26人，查扣黑加油车38辆、船3只，开展集中收网，全链条 打击犯罪。商务部门严查成品油经营资质，督促企业规范购销台账，梳理合法主体清单，强化油品溯源，联合执法打击非法行为，压缩"黑加油点"生存空 间。交通部门严查非法运输行为30余起，督促13家企业完成自用储罐备案整改，落实电子运单和驾驶员行前安全测评制度。应急部门查处无证生产、经营 危险化学品行为，立案3起；排查337家自建油罐单位，牵头制定《联合处置工作指引》等制度，推动整治规范化。市监部门严查油品质量与计量违法，立 案6起；参与联合执法，移送违法线索，强化流通领域监管。税务部门组建专班核查黑加油点涉税问题，向上追溯"不带票"销售，向下打击虚抵税款，严 查以化工品名义偷逃消费税行为，推进联合惩戒。 会上，市应急管理局对《扬州市黑加油点"大扫除"专项整治行动部门联合处置工作指引》进行了解读 ...

该行上调对中石油明年及后年税后利润预测1%，H股目标价由8港元上调至8.5港元，重申H股"买入"投 资评级，基于预测今年6厘股息率。 美银发表报告指，中国石油股份首三季税后利润按年跌5%至1260亿元，单计第三季按年跌4%至423亿 元，按季升14%胜预期，受显著增长的天然气销售利润推动。首三季资本开支按年跌5%至1770亿元， 为全年指引的68%。 ...

港股三大指数呈现低开低走行情，恒生科技指数跌幅最大，午间收跌1.91%，恒生指数跌0.89%险守 26000点大关，国企指数跌1.17%。市场总体偏弱势，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体走低，其中， 阿里巴巴、腾讯跌幅明显，半导体股、中资券商股、汽车股、重型机械股跌幅较大，芯片龙头中芯国际 跌超5%。另外，生物医药股在弱势拉升，三生制药大涨超10%领衔创新药概念股上涨，教育股、旅游 股、石油股部分活跃，中国石油绩后涨约2%。(格隆汇) ...

中美关系对石油软实力的影响。中美领导人在韩国会晤后达成的协议被视为紧张局势的降温而非结构性改变，这种"有限缓和"对石油市场产生复杂影响。一 是短期情绪提振。投资者将公告协议视为紧张局势的降温，10月30日国际油价微幅走高。二是长期不确定性。缺乏结构性改变意味着地缘政治风险溢价仍将 持续，限制油价上行空间。三是规则博弈延续。中美贸易争端本质是国际规则主导权之争，直接影响全球能源贸易格局的稳定性。 美联储政策与石油金融属性。美联储10月如期降息并暗示可能是今年最后一次降息，这一决策通过以下渠道影响石油软实力。一是美元计价效应。降息预期 减弱支撑美元指数，间接压制以美元计价的原油价格。二是需求预期管理。美联储对经济前景的谨慎态度强化市场对能源需求疲软的担忧。三是资本流动影 响。利率政策变化影响能源领域投资决策，塑造长期供应预期。 邓正红软实力表示，中美领导人在韩国会晤之后，投资者评估中美贸易争端潜在休战可能性，石油软实力走势艰难，周四（10月30日）国际油价微幅走高。 截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油12月期货结算价每桶涨0.09元至60.57美元，涨幅0.15%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油12月期货结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

原油日报 | 2025-10-31 中美会谈结果符合预期，油价波动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨9美分，收于每桶60.57美元，涨幅为0.15%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨8美分，收于每桶65.00美元，涨幅为0.12%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.24%，报461元/桶。 2、 沙特财政部10月30日表示，随着支出增加和收入下降，该国第三季度财政赤字扩大至885亿里亚尔（236亿美 元），较上一季度增长160%。赤字扩大之际，石油收入下降0.1%至1,508亿里亚尔，原因是欧佩克逐步解除减产措 施对油价造成压力。同时，沙特继续推进其"2030愿景"计划，以实现经济多元化。作为全球最大原油出口国，沙 特本季度总收入同比下降约13%至2,699亿里亚尔，其中1,191亿里亚尔来自非石油产业。公共支出同比增长6%，达 到3,584亿里亚尔。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 俄罗斯第二大石油生产商卢克石油已同意将其大部分国际资产出售给瑞士大宗商品交易商贡渥。上周，美国 对该公司实施了制裁。卢克石油10月30日表示，公司已接受贡渥对旗下子公司卢克石油国际（L ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price Changes (Oct 24 - Oct 30)**: WTI increased by $0.09, BRENT by $0.08, OMAN by $2.56, and SC decreased by $3.70. Other products also showed various price changes [3] - **Differences**: WTI - BRENT was around -$4.4, and other spreads like DUBAI - BRT also had specific values and changes [3] Domestic Products - **Prices and Changes**: Domestic gasoline remained at 7420 (unchanged from Oct 24 - Oct 30), and domestic diesel had related price - BRT spreads and changes [3] Other Products - **Prices and Changes**: Japan naphtha - BRT had a change of 0.91, and Singapore fuel oil and other products also had price and spread changes [3] Group 3: Daily News Russia's Fuel Exports - Russia's refined oil exports dropped to the lowest level since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The daily average export volume of seaborne petroleum products in the first 26 days of October was 1.89 million barrels. Sanctions, attacks, and bad weather affected exports [5] Saudi's Fiscal Situation - Saudi's Q3 fiscal deficit widened to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.6 billion), a 160% increase from the previous quarter. Oil revenue decreased by 0.1%, and total revenue dropped by about 13% year - on - year [5] Market Perception of Russia Sanctions - TotalEnergies' CEO said the oil market underestimated the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, and the sanctions were already affecting oil flows [6] Hungary's Request for Sanction Exemption - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban hopes to get an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil through a meeting with Trump [6] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US Data (Oct 24 Week) - Crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels/day to 4.361 million barrels/day, domestic production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels/day, and commercial crude inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels (1.62%) [7] - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels (0.13%), and commercial crude imports decreased by 867,000 barrels/day [7] China's Situation (Oct 16 - Oct 23 Week) - Main refinery and Shandong local refinery operating rates declined. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory decreased. Main refinery comprehensive profit declined, and local refinery comprehensive profit decreased month - on - month [7] Group 5: Weekly View Price Movement - Oil prices rebounded significantly this week, with Brent oil closing above $65 [7] Supply Impact - US sanctions on Russian oil producers may lead to a near - zero supply of Russian oil to India in the short term. India has increased purchases of Middle Eastern crude since September, supporting the Dubai market [7] Geopolitical and Fundamental Factors - US military strikes on Venezuela's transportation raised geopolitical concerns. EIA crude inventory decreased, US refinery operations rebounded, and the US Energy Department planned to buy 1 million barrels of crude for the SPR [7] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices may rebound with increased volatility. Mid - term upside is limited due to OPEC's potential increase in production, and the oversupply situation will continue in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Insights - Heshun Petroleum (603353.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results on October 31, 2025, highlighting significant institutional investment in the company [1] Institutional Holdings - As of October 30, 2025, four institutional investors disclosed holdings in Heshun Petroleum A-shares, totaling 75.8084 million shares, which represents 44.10% of the company's total equity [1] - The institutional investors include Hunan Heshun Investment Development Co., Shenzhen Dahua Xinan Private Securities Fund Management Co., Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC, and another fund managed by Shenzhen Dahua Xinan [1] - Compared to the previous quarter, the total institutional holding percentage increased by 0.36 percentage points [1] Public Fund Disclosures - In this reporting period, nine public funds were disclosed, including CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy Mixed (LOF) A, CITIC Prudential Economic Selection Mixed A, CITIC Prudential Anxin Return Bond A, Huatai-PineBridge CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF, and Everbright Prudential Quantitative Stock A [1] Foreign Investment - One new foreign institutional investor disclosed in this period is Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC [1]