Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the heavy truck industry, particularly highlighting the expected benefits from the implementation of the National IV emission standards [12]. Core Insights - February sales exceeded expectations, with wholesale sales reaching 82,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [8]. - Terminal sales for February were 48,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 81.9% and a month-on-month increase of 42.9% [8]. - The report anticipates that in March 2025, domestic sales will be around 70,000 units, with wholesale expected to reach 110,000 units [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - February production of heavy trucks was 87,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 46.3% and month-on-month growth of 14.4% [11]. - The total inventory in February increased by 16,000 units, with the current total inventory at 149,000 units [8][26]. Market Structure - In February, the market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (25.0%), Dongfeng (19.2%), and Heavy Truck (19.3%) [10]. - The market share for exports was dominated by Heavy Truck at 46.6%, followed by Jiefang (14.7%) and Dongfeng (6.6%) [51]. Profitability Tracking - The report indicates that the heavy truck industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in both terminal and wholesale sales, suggesting a positive trend in profitability [11][12]. - The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 36.7%, with sales of 17,700 units in February, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.5% [33]. Demand Tracking - The report notes that macroeconomic indicators remain stable, supporting the demand for heavy trucks [70]. - The average oil-gas price difference was reported at 2.3 yuan, which is above the critical value for cost recovery, indicating favorable economic conditions for natural gas trucks [34].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

2月重卡数据超市场预期，该月销售水平仅次于2021年2月，主要系春节后开工使物流需求攀升、车企为 迎接开门红准备较多新车库存，考虑到2025年以旧换新政策延续、未来国四淘汰政策有望逐步落地，看 好重卡行业驱动力从LNG+电车变为LNG+电车+油车换新，全年销量有望超过百万台，尤其是内销或保 持较快增长，看好行业头部车企受益此轮周期向上，加强内部控制和降本力度的企业利润弹性或更高。 人民财讯3月11日电，华泰证券研报称，2月我国重卡批售约8万辆，同比、环比分别增长34%、11%。 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market shows a recovery in sales but weak investment, with second-hand housing becoming a key driver of sales improvement, while new housing remains sluggish [1][8][30] - The construction materials sector, including cement and steel, is experiencing lower demand compared to previous years, with cement output down 24.9% year-on-year [1][16][31] - The automotive and home appliance sectors are benefiting from improved demand due to the recovery in real estate sales and supportive policies, with automotive sales increasing by 20.8% year-on-year [1][12][31] Group 2 - The energy and resources sector is facing weak coal demand, with prices declining; however, industrial metals are seeing a mild recovery in demand [23][24] - The financial sector is experiencing heightened investment enthusiasm in the A-share market, with social financing data showing positive trends [34][35] - The midstream manufacturing sector is seeing a decline in heavy truck and excavator sales due to seasonal factors and policy transitions, with heavy truck sales down 25.5% year-on-year [36][37] Group 3 - The consumption sector is witnessing a recovery in service consumption and a rebound in large consumer goods, while agricultural product demand remains weak [2][3] - The TMT sector is seeing accelerated production of humanoid robots and sustained interest in AI models, indicating potential growth opportunities [2][3] - The new energy sector is experiencing high growth in sales from new energy vehicles, with new models expected to drive further demand [2][3]

2 证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 2月第3周乘用车同比+42.3%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年3月4日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.2.24-2025.3.2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：二月第三周交强险36.8万辆（同/环比+42.3%/+9.6%）。本周SW汽 车指数-2.7%，细分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载客车(+3.7%) ＞ 重卡指数(-0.7%)> S W摩托车及其他(-1.0%)> SW汽车零部件(-2.2%)> SW汽车(-2.7%)> SＷ商用载货车(- 3.5%) > SW乘用车(-4.4%) 。本周已覆盖标的明阳科技、苏轴股份、小鹏汽车-W、威 迈斯和理想汽车-W涨幅较好。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发二月深圳NOA试驾报告、乘用车月报、重卡月报。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）特斯拉在中国正式推出FSD，国内智能化进程加速；2）小鹏 2月交付新车30453台，同比+570%；3）理想公布L改款规划，5月智驾焕新版Pro/ M ...

撰文 / 牛跟尚 设计 / 师 超 "一汽、东风、重汽(包括陕汽)三大品牌主导行业竞争的格局一直没有被打破"——62岁的北汽重卡党委书记、总经理吴越俊在2025年1月1日的反思文章 中说。 这位卡车界老将认为，"除欧曼外还没有任何新品牌取得成功的先例，北汽重卡作为全新的品牌要取得行业成功也是难度极大。" 事实是，他领导的北汽重卡在2024年销量7173辆——不及福田欧曼全年销量69819辆的零头，相比2024年16000辆的目标，可谓英雄迟暮、壮志未酬。 北汽重卡是北汽集团在福田汽车之外，于2023年1月全新发布企业战略、品牌战略的中国重卡新势力，它在当年3月首辆车下线、5月上市、6月量产，并 在半年内产量突破5000辆。可谓来势汹汹，颓势快快。 2024年，不光有北汽集团的北汽重卡销量惨淡，还有上汽集团背景的上汽红岩和大运集团的大运重卡生死未卜，江汽集团的江淮重卡、兵工集团背景的 北奔重卡停滞不前，吉利集团背景的远程重卡、奇瑞集团背景的联合重卡没有进入前十。 同样在天然卡重卡销量10强中，第六到第十名才出现大运、北汽重卡、上汽红岩、联合重工、北奔重卡的坐席，后五者总和不到8000辆，不及第六名福 田汽车18 ...

撰 文 / 牛跟尚 设 计 / 琚 佳 这是意料惊喜中的意外悲伤。 中国汽车在2024年销量3143.6万辆——连续两年突破3000万辆大关，同比增长4.5%，再创新高。而 中国商用车及重卡却是逆势下滑。 中国汽车工业协会（简称中汽协）统计的企业开票数（含底盘、牵引车），2024年，中国商用车销 售387万辆，同比下滑3.95%，重卡销量90.17万辆，同比下降1.03%（也有说是89.9万辆，同比下降 1%）。 除受重卡影响外，微型卡车销量为43.32万辆，同比下降30.85%。由此，货车销量336万辆，同比下 滑5%，导致中国商用车市场表现疲弱，产销未达400万辆预期。虽然轻型货车销量190万辆，但同 比微增长0.28%；中型货车增幅达到19%，规模只有12.76万辆。 中汽协副秘书长陈士华分析，这是由于投资减弱，加之当前运价依然偏低，终端市场换车需求动力 不足。 谁是中国商用车销量冠军 从2024年中国商用车企业（含卡车和客车及出口）销量前10强看，相比2023年，福田汽车和东风公 司的冠亚军位置没变，但福田汽车减少1.58万辆，市场份额上升0.79个百分点，东风公司减少了 4.62万辆，市场份额下滑0 ...