Group 1 - The UK 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 4.554%, with a total rise of 5.0 basis points for the week [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 5.343%, accumulating a weekly increase of 7.1 basis points [1] - The 50-year UK bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 4.689%, with a total rise of 7.2 basis points for the week [1] Group 2 - On July 1, the US stock market saw the 10-year yield drop to 4.417% before rebounding to 4.633% at the market open on July 2 [1] - The 30-year yield fell to 5.185% on July 1 and rebounded to 5.453% on July 2 [1] - The 50-year yield dropped to 4.542% on July 1 and then increased to 4.817% on July 2 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in German government bond yields, highlighting the movements in 10-year, 2-year, and 30-year bonds during the week of July 4, with specific attention to the impact of the U.S. non-farm payroll report on these yields [1]. Summary by Category 10-Year Government Bonds - The yield on German 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.607%, with a cumulative increase of 1.5 basis points for the week [1]. - The yield had previously dropped to 2.542% before rebounding to 2.675% on July 2 [1]. 2-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 2-year German bonds fell by 1.8 basis points to 1.816%, with an overall decline of 4.4 basis points for the week [1]. - The trading range for the 2-year bonds was between 1.875% and 1.799%, with a notable recovery following the U.S. non-farm payroll report on July 3 [1]. - The yield fluctuated below 1.860% from June 30 to July 3, but the rebound was short-lived, leading to further declines on July 4 [1]. 30-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 30-year German bonds increased by 0.9 basis points to 3.087%, with a total rise of 1.7 basis points for the week [1]. Yield Spread - The spread between 2-year and 10-year German bond yields increased by 1.174 basis points to +78.909 basis points, with a cumulative rise of 6.128 basis points for the week [1].

Demand Structure - As of Q1 2025, the total market value of publicly held U.S. Treasury securities is $26.88 trillion, with a face value of $28.45 trillion[15] - The main holders of U.S. Treasuries include overseas investors (33.5%), broad-based mutual funds (18.7%), the Federal Reserve (14.3%), households and nonprofits (10.6%), and state and local governments (6.0%)[17] Overseas Holdings - Since 1996, overseas investors have consistently held over 30% of U.S. Treasuries, but this dropped below 60% for the first time in July 2024[21] - Japan and China have historically been the largest foreign holders, but both have recently reduced their holdings, with Japan's holdings around $1.1 to $1.3 trillion and China's down to $757.2 billion[22][23] Duration Preferences - As of June 2024, foreign official institutions hold U.S. Treasuries with a weighted average maturity (WAM) of approximately 5.3 years, while private investors have a WAM of about 7.3 years[27] - Approximately 28% of overseas holdings are concentrated in the 0-2 year maturity range, with over 60% maturing within 5 years, indicating a preference for shorter durations among foreign official accounts[27] Auction Dynamics - In June 2024, domestic demand supported the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y maturities, while demand for 3Y, 7Y, and 30Y maturities declined, suggesting a shift in overseas interest towards certain mid- to long-term bonds[6] Future Demand Outlook - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBBA) is projected to increase the U.S. federal deficit significantly, with an estimated $4.1 trillion increase in debt by 2034, potentially raising net supply pressure by several trillion dollars[6] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain structurally stable but may see a retreat from overseas investors, while domestic demand will likely remain passive and stable[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., and deteriorating fiscal prospects leading to unsustainable federal debt levels[6]

本周欧元区债市格局迎来历史性转折：法国五年期国债收益率自2005年以来首次超越意大利同期债券，成为欧元区主要经济体中收益率最高的品种，在欧洲 大陆仅次于拉脱维亚。这一现象标志着传统"核心-外围"债市分界线的加速消融，市场焦点正转向法国十年期国债何时与意大利完成收益率趋同。 值得关注的是，法国基准国债收益率已超过曾深陷主权债务危机的希腊和葡萄牙，成为欧元区核心国中表现最弱的债券市场。 里格尔强调，当前法国债市面临的"基本面与政治背景双重挑战"前所罕见。随着欧央行货币政策转向，市场对各国财政可持续性的敏感度提升，传统避险资 产的定价逻辑正在被重新书写。此次债市倒挂中，意大利、希腊等前期"高风险"国家反而成为受益者，其改革成效正逐步获得投资者认可。 德国商业银行利率与信贷研究主管克里斯托夫.里格尔指出，巴黎当前的政治僵局与财政改革受阻，已对法国债务吸引力构成实质性冲击。作为欧元区传 统"安全资产"代表，法国债券竟与素以财政宽松著称的意大利站在同一风险定价水平——意大利10年期国债相对于法国的收益率溢价已收窄至17个基点，创 2007年以来最低纪录，较三年前近200个基点的差距大幅缩水。 尽管法国五年期国债期限较意大 ...

固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 千淘万漉，吹沙到金——2025 年度债市中期策 略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年债市核心逻辑从"资产荒"转向"负债荒"，交易盘边际定价权增强，上半年基本面韧 性形成底部约束但不构成利空，财政宽信用使得债市大幅调整的四要素未齐备，三季度末前流 动性或维持"充裕但有底线"格局。策略上，Q3 把握利率债做多窗口，建议 10 年期国债利率 1.65%附近、30 年期国债利率 1.85%以上时逢调配置；若 Q4 财政加码或推升 10 年期国债利 率至 1.8%，但经济若明显承压或推动货币政策适度宽松，利率仍可博弈前低 1.6%。信用端建 议 7 月布局票息策略，二永债择高流动性波段操作，存单受益资金宽松仍有下行空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 马月 马玮健 SAC：S ...

Core Viewpoint - UK bond yields opened slightly lower, indicating underperformance compared to French and German bonds [1] Group 1 - UK bonds are showing a decline in yield, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment [1] - The performance of UK bonds is lagging behind that of French and German government bonds, highlighting a relative weakness in the UK bond market [1]

Group 1 - Japan issued 4.3 trillion yen in 3-month treasury bills [1] - The price of the treasury bills was set at 99.8938 [1] - The yield on these treasury bills is 0.4264% [1]

Group 1 - Ningxia issued a 15-year special local government bond for healthcare with a scale of 0.66 billion and an issuance rate of 1.94% [1] - The marginal multiple for the healthcare bond was 1.30 times, with an expected multiple of 2.18 [1] - Ningxia also issued a 10-year special local government bond for urban renewal with a scale of 1.00 billion and an issuance rate of 1.79% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the urban renewal bond was 3.00 times, with an expected multiple of 2.34 [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, while expectations for interest rate cuts decreased, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury bonds and a drop in gold prices by approximately 1.4% [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report was unexpectedly strong, causing the market to abandon bets on a rate cut in July [1] - The ISM services index for June in the U.S. was reported at 50.8, with a contraction in the employment index but a rebound in business activity and orders [1] Group 2 - China plans to strengthen governance over the photovoltaic industry to combat low-price and disorderly competition [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened twice in one day to buy Hong Kong dollars [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the 20% tariffs on Vietnam will not be stacked on the existing 10% tariffs, and following the U.S.-Vietnam agreement, India and Indonesia are ramping up efforts [1] Group 3 - Japan's 30-year government bond auction saw strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since February [1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by over 1% amid reports of the U.S. planning to negotiate with Iran next week [1] - A one-hour phone call between the U.S. and Russian presidents discussed the situation in the Middle East and negotiations regarding Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - The long-term bond market is experiencing significant volatility due to rising government borrowing demands and expanding deficits, leading to higher yield requirements from investors [1][4] - The UK has become a focal point of this turmoil, with the Chancellor's proposed £50 billion welfare cuts being rejected, raising concerns about the government's fiscal discipline and resulting in a sharp increase in 30-year UK bond yields [1][4] - The sensitivity of long-term bonds to fiscal risks is attributed to their illiquid market, where even minor sell-offs can lead to substantial price drops and yield spikes [3][4] Group 2 - Various governments, including the US, Japan, and Australia, are reconsidering their issuance strategies for long-term bonds in light of high interest rates and fiscal concerns [4][6] - Japan's recent announcement to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds has led to a temporary stabilization in demand for its 30-year bonds, although yields still rose due to global market pressures [6][7] - Investors are increasingly favoring short-term bonds over long-term ones due to the heightened sensitivity of the latter to fiscal and political risks, as well as the demand for higher yields as compensation for these risks [7]