Investment Rating of the Report There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for July 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased month - on - month, with different trends among various bond types and institutions. The leverage ratio of the bond market decreased month - on - month due to the seasonal reduction of the repurchase bond balance [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the combined bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 173.03 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.74 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than the month - on - month increase at the end of June [1][10]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased month - on - month, while the custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) decreased. In July 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 118.91 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 0.41 trillion yuan; the custody of ICDs was 20.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.37 trillion yuan [1][10]. 2. Bond Holder Structure and Changes 2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - The custody of major bonds by various institutions in the bond market showed differentiation this month. Allocation accounts increased their custody, while trading accounts and overseas institutions decreased theirs. Specifically, policy banks, insurance institutions, and credit unions increased their holdings of major bonds across the board; commercial banks increased their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products but continued to reduce their holdings of ICDs; securities companies increased their holdings of ICDs but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products; non - legal entity products continued to increase their holdings of major credit products but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and ICDs; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of major bonds across the board [2][24]. - In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted the equity and commodity markets. Under the influence of factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, the bond market significantly corrected. Trading accounts such as securities and broad - based funds quickly took profits and sold, while allocation accounts such as commercial banks and insurance companies bought significantly, acting as a "stabilizer" for the bond market [24]. 2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - Local government bond custody continued to increase this month, and commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][26]. - Policy - financial bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - ICD custody continued to decrease this month, with commercial banks being the main sellers. The continuous decline in ICD custody was mainly due to the slowdown in issuance and relatively large maturity of existing bonds [2][26]. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [2][29]. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase this month, and non - legal entity products continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][29]. - Short - term and super - short - term financing custody turned to an increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [29]. - Non - publicly - oriented instrument custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [30]. 2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bonds - As of the end of July 2025, the holder structure of major bonds varied. For example, commercial banks were the largest holders of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds, while non - legal entity products were the largest holders of medium - term notes, short - term and super - short - term financing, and ICDs [33][34][37]. 3. Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style pledged repos was 110,279.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 11,233.91 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.81%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and 0.24 percentage points year - on - year [3][48].

Group 1: Structural Changes in Capital Markets - Global capital markets are undergoing structural changes as they approach the investment crossroads of 2025, with a focus on balancing portfolio stability and growth under the Federal Reserve's 4.25% benchmark interest rate policy [1] Group 2: Stock Market Opportunities - Intelligent manufacturing companies, represented by (9899.HK/3L8P9), are trading at a 40% premium over traditional manufacturing due to patented AI quality inspection systems [2] - In the renewable energy sector, (9899.HK/D4Q6M) has reduced sodium-ion battery production costs to 0.35 CNY/Wh, increasing the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage stations to 12.8% [2] - In the medical technology field, (9899.HK/7H3JY) received FDA breakthrough device designation for its brain-computer interface, leading to a 117% stock price increase over three months based on clinical trial data [2] - The biopharmaceutical sector's (9899.HK/5R9TX) AI drug screening platform has shortened new drug development cycles to 2.3 years, maintaining a high dynamic P/E ratio of 62 times [2] - In consumer electronics, (9899.HK/W2Z4K) achieved a yield rate of over 92% for flexible screens, securing a $3.5 billion order from a leading international manufacturer [2] - These innovation-driven stocks, including (9899.HK/A4B7C, 9899.HK/E8F3G, 9899.HK/J6K9L), form the main line of growth stock investment [2] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable in the 3.8%-4.2% range, while (9899.HK/N5M2R) issued green bonds with a coupon rate of 5.75%, achieving a subscription multiple of 3.8 times, a new high [3] - The credit bond market shows a bifurcated landscape, with investment-grade bonds (e.g., 9899.HK/P4Q8S) seeing spreads narrow to 120 basis points, while high-yield bonds (e.g., 9899.HK/T7U1V) experience a default rate of 6.2% [3] - Among convertible bonds, (9899.HK/X3Y9Z) has seen a 22% decrease in option value due to reduced volatility of the underlying stock [3] Group 4: Gold Market Attributes - Spot gold fluctuates between $1950 and $2050 per ounce, showing a clear negative correlation with the holdings of (9899.HK/2D4F6) gold ETF [4] - Amid increased volatility in digital currencies, gold's hedging properties are highlighted, with a 47% surge in average daily trading volume for gold futures when Bitcoin experiences a single-day drop exceeding 15% [4] - On the industrial application front, (9899.HK/V8B3N) has developed a nano-gold catalyst that reduces hydrogen fuel cell costs by 28%, creating new demand growth opportunities [4] Group 5: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy - A "core + satellite" allocation strategy is recommended, with 60% in basic positions like (9899.HK/C5M8Q) broad-based ETFs, 20% in high-rated corporate bonds (e.g., 9899.HK/G2H7J), 10% in gold ETFs (e.g., 9899.HK/L4P9T), and 10% in frontier technology stocks (e.g., 9899.HK/Z9X3R) [5] - When the VIX index exceeds 25, it is advisable to increase gold allocation to 15% and reduce high-valuation stocks (e.g., 9899.HK/K8M2S) [5] - Investors should seek a balance between defensive assets (e.g., 9899.HK/R3T6Y) and growth stocks (e.g., 9899.HK/U8I2O) in the current market environment [5] - Monthly evaluations of portfolio volatility are suggested, with a rebalancing mechanism activated when 30-day annualized volatility exceeds 18%, utilizing quantitative hedging tools (e.g., 9899.HK/Y7H1J) to reduce risk exposure [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The international capital market in August 2025 shows a complex and variable landscape, with stable Federal Reserve interest rate policies impacting major investment categories: stocks, bonds, and gold [1] - The Hong Kong stock market's biopharmaceutical sector continues to perform strongly, with a leading gene editing company experiencing a weekly increase of 12.3%, reaching a year-to-date high [1] - The bond market exhibits a polarized trend, with U.S. ten-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 3.2% and 3.5%, while corporate bonds show significant stratification [1] Group 2: Gold and Alternative Investments - Gold prices have surpassed $2,200 per ounce, marking a historical high, driven by central banks increasing their reserves and a gold mining company reporting a 28% increase in proven reserves, leading to a 17% surge in its stock price [2] - The alternative investment sector is witnessing new trends, with carbon credit derivatives trading volume increasing by 210% month-over-month, and a water rights trading index showing positive growth for three consecutive months [2] Group 3: Fund Flows and Asset Allocation - Cross-border ETFs have seen a record net subscription of 1.5 billion yuan in a week, while REITs products' premium rate has narrowed to 3.2% [3] - Investors are advised to focus on inflation-linked bonds that can effectively hedge against CPI fluctuations, considering three key variables: geopolitical impacts on energy prices, monetary policy divergence among major economies, and the actual productivity gains from artificial intelligence [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In response to the complex market environment, professional institutions recommend a barbell strategy, allocating 70% of funds to stable assets and 30% to high-growth sectors, while regularly conducting stress tests to ensure portfolio resilience [4]

Group 1: Structural Changes in Financial Markets - The global financial market is undergoing structural changes driven by the dual forces of the AI computing power revolution and the carbon neutrality process [1] - Investors are facing valuation reconstruction of emerging tech stocks and yield fluctuations in traditional industry bonds, necessitating the construction of more forward-looking investment portfolios [1] Group 2: Opportunities in the Stock Market - In the tech sector, quantum computing companies have achieved an average increase of 187% since the beginning of the year [2] - In the consumer sector, smart wearable device manufacturers have seen a 340% year-on-year increase in order volume due to breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technology [2] - Solid-state battery companies in the new energy industry have received significant funding from national development funds, amounting to billions [2] Group 3: Safe Haven Value in the Bond Market - Asian dollar bonds have become a safe haven for funds amid expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [3] - A 10-year infrastructure bond issued by a specific company has a current yield of 5.8%, which is significantly higher than the same-rated U.S. Treasury bonds by 120 basis points [3] - The green bond sector has seen carbon neutrality special bonds exceed $50 billion, benefiting from tax incentives and liquidity premiums [3] Group 4: Strategic Positioning of Gold Assets - Geopolitical risks have increased the value of gold allocations, despite digital currencies diverting some safe-haven demand [4] - A specific gold ETF has reached a record high holding of 2,150 tons [4] - Digital gold certificate products have achieved T+0 cross-border settlement with an average daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion [4] - An asset allocation model suggests a growth-oriented portfolio with a 55:30:15 allocation in stocks, bonds, and gold, focusing on high-growth tech stocks and short-duration bonds for hedging [4] - Conservative investors can maintain over 25% in safe-haven positions through gold derivatives [4] Group 5: Market Volatility and Risk Control - Intelligent risk control system providers have seen valuation increases, with their Bayesian network warning model capable of predicting over 80% of price movements 36 hours in advance [5] - The launch of regulatory technology platforms is expected to enhance market transparency, creating a better environment for rational investment [5]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a pullback on August 20, with government bond futures mostly closing lower and interbank bond yields rising in the afternoon [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan in the open market, with funding rates continuing to rise [1][6] Bond Futures and Yields - The main government bond futures contracts saw declines: the 30-year contract fell by 0.35% to 116.050, the 10-year contract dropped by 0.18% to 107.855, and the 5-year contract decreased by 0.10% to 105.425 [2] - Interbank yields for major bonds rose in the afternoon, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.9 basis points to 2.0375% and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.1 basis points to 1.895% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.54 basis points to 3.06% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, while European bond yields saw mixed movements, with French and German 10-year yields declining [4] Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance's recent bond auctions showed that the weighted average yields for 91-day and 5-year government bonds were 1.2715% and 1.5870%, respectively, both below market expectations [5] - Jilin Province's local bond auctions demonstrated strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 21 times for several issues [5] Funding Conditions - The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a total of 616 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions in the market [6] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the current bond market may face short-term risks, but the overall fundamentals and liquidity conditions support a stable outlook [8] - The "anti-involution" trend in convertible bonds is expected to continue, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is recovering from significant declines [8]

Group 1 - The global bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with investors highly sensitive to any changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, making information asymmetry a crucial profit source in modern bond investing [1][2] - U.S. Treasury yields reversed a three-day decline, with the 10-year benchmark yield dropping to 4.30%, driven by an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, influenced by signs of a cooling job market [2][11] - The Chinese bond market is showing similar trends, with government bond futures closing higher and a notable drop in yields, creating investment opportunities for savvy investors [2][11] Group 2 - The speed and quality of information acquisition directly impact investment success in the rapidly changing bond market, making timely information a core competitive advantage for investors [3] - The Sina Finance APP offers significant advantages in this information competition, providing real-time updates and monitoring tools for bond market dynamics [4][6] - The APP's features include a "bond anomaly monitoring" function that alerts investors to unusual price movements within three seconds, enabling them to seize trading opportunities [5][6] Group 3 - The APP provides comprehensive bond market coverage, including over 300 types of bonds, and offers professional analytical tools such as yield curve analysis and credit spread monitoring [6][9] - It includes intelligent decision support features, such as ESG scoring and financial data access for new bond issuances, enhancing the investment decision-making process [7][8] - The APP also supports cross-border investment with tools for currency hedging and real-time analysis of international bond markets, helping investors navigate global trends [9] Group 4 - The APP emphasizes financial education, offering over 200 video courses and a simulated trading platform to help novice investors improve their trading skills [10] - For advanced users, the APP provides customized services, allowing users to create personalized bond portfolios and monitoring metrics [10] - In the current market environment, characterized by fluctuating risk preferences, the APP aims to democratize access to institutional-level data tools for individual investors [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The logic of "buying on every dip" in the bond market still holds as the logic supporting the long - term bull market in the bond market remains intact. The future outlook is long - term bullish but short - term bottom - grinding [1][2][20]. - The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market. The consensus of a slow - bull market in equities is strengthening, leading to more frequent bond market adjustments and redemption tides [1][8]. - The redemption risk index rose to 62 on August 18, indicating the risk of a redemption tide. Although the fund selling sentiment was strong in July, the active purchase by rural commercial banks and insurance companies effectively alleviated market pressure. It is expected that the scale of wealth management products will not be significantly negatively affected this time. If the 10Y Treasury yield touches 1.8% due to unexpected performance in the equity market, core buyers such as banks and insurance companies may enter the market, and investors can consider right - side allocation at this point [1][9][14]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. August Redemption Tide Returns - On August 18, the A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly a decade, triggering a bond market adjustment and bond fund redemptions. The core cause of the four rounds of redemption tides since September 24, 2024, is the unexpected rise in the equity market [8]. - A comprehensive redemption risk index was constructed. On August 18, the index rose to 62, mainly affected by bond fund redemptions, equity market rises, high - valuation transactions of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and tightened liquidity [9]. 2. When Will the Redemption Tide Market Reach the Right Side? - In terms of time, the median duration of historical redemption tides is 6 - 7 trading days. Although the market slightly recovered on August 19, the redemption risk index has been triggered, and the redemption disturbance may last for 4 - 5 days [14]. - In terms of adjustment range, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 4bp on August 18 and fell 1bp on August 19, currently reaching about half of the adjustment range of small - scale redemption tides since 2023. The 1.8% level of the 10Y Treasury yield is a key observation point [14]. - The main sellers are funds and securities firms. On August 19, funds net - sold 126.6 billion yuan of bonds. In July, rural commercial banks and insurance companies actively bought bonds, and currently, wealth management products are still net buyers [14]. - The core factors for the end of the redemption tide include equity market adjustments and weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect, central bank liquidity support, and self - repair of the market after reaching a certain adjustment level [15][16]. 3. Is the Logic of "Buying on Every Dip" Subverted? - The long - term bull market in the bond market is supported by factors such as weak economic recovery, declining income and employment expectations, long - term asset shortage, real estate bubble burst, fiscal tightening of general urban investment, moderately loose monetary policy, and difficulties in bank credit issuance [2][21]. - From the perspective of credit and bank fund flow, the high correlation between social financing credit and the bond market remains. Weak financing demand in general urban investment and real estate leads to weak credit growth, causing bank funds to flow into the bond market, making it difficult for the bond bull market to reverse. In July, the new credit in the social financing scale was - 426.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 345.5 billion yuan [2][22]. - From a technical perspective, the long - term interest rate is currently in a relatively right - side position, with good odds and relatively high winning probabilities. However, the liquidity of credit products is relatively weak, and a clearer right - side opportunity is still awaited. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side of this adjustment, take profits moderately, and maintain a defensive position [2][26].

Group 1 - China's recent purchase of $100 million in U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a strategic geopolitical move amidst ongoing financial tensions [1] - In contrast, Japan and the UK significantly increased their holdings, with Japan adding $12.6 billion and the UK $48.7 billion, highlighting China's relatively minor adjustment [1] - Despite the small increase, China's total holdings remain at $756.4 billion, significantly lower than the trillion-dollar levels maintained before 2022, indicating a cautious approach [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's decision to refrain from imposing new tariffs on Chinese purchases of Russian oil coincides with China's bond purchase, suggesting a leverage effect in trade negotiations [3] - Trump's call for a fourfold increase in soybean orders from China reflects the urgency of U.S. agricultural interests, as American soybean exports to China have drastically declined [4][6] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a soybean production of 125 million tons by 2025, yet the lack of orders from China raises concerns about market stability [6] Group 3 - China's strategy of increasing bond holdings while simultaneously withholding soybean orders illustrates a dual approach to maintain financial leverage while resisting political pressure [8] - The current U.S. soybean inventory has reached a nine-year high, with prices nearing cost levels, indicating a critical situation for American farmers [8] - The diversification of China's soybean imports from countries like Brazil and Argentina demonstrates a strategic shift away from reliance on U.S. agricultural products [6][8]

展望后市，华创证券固收首席分析师周冠南称，短期尽管'股债跷跷板'效应对当下债市的指引作用较强，但就中期维度考虑，由于基本面和货币 条件尚未逆转，因此债市仍处于调整逻辑而非反转逻辑中，目前无需过于悲观。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可 帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率波动放大 时，具备较强的交易属性，长期在低利率的背景下，具备较强的配置属性，值得投资者积极关注。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议。"基金有风险，投资需谨慎" 8月20日讯，国债市场早盘持续拉升。截至上午10:00，30年国债ETF(511090)涨0.28%。债市方面，30年期国债期货合约(TL2512)最新价为116.26 元，涨0.28%，成交量为19515手，总持仓量为89205手。其余国债期货合约10年期国债(T2512)涨0.03%；5年期国债(TF2512)涨0.04%；2年期国债 (T ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the performance data of global asset markets on August 19, 2025, including major economies' 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bond yields, dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies, major economies' stock indices, stock futures trading data, and treasury futures trading data [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Yields**: - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On August 19, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.307%, 4.739%, 3.435% respectively. The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes varied across different economies. For example, the US had a latest change of - 0.027, a weekly change of 0.016, a monthly change of - 0.039, and a yearly change of 0.366 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The 2 - year treasury bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.750%, 3.975%, 1.955% respectively on August 19, 2025. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.010, a weekly change of - 0.010, a monthly change of 0.060, and a yearly change of - 0.250 [3] - **Exchange Rates**: - **Dollar against Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 19, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.506, with a latest change of 1.28% and a weekly change of 2.17%. The exchange rates and their changes against other emerging economies' currencies also varied [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, mid - price, and 12 - month NDF of the renminbi on August 19, 2025 were 7.182, 7.187, 7.136, and 7.026 respectively, with different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On August 19, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6411.370, 44922.270, and 21314.950 respectively. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were different. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of - 0.59%, a weekly change of - 0.53%, a monthly change of 1.61%, and a yearly change of 19.97% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: The performance of other stock indices such as the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index also had their own characteristics in terms of latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3] Stock Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3727.29, 4223.37, 2812.42 respectively on August 19, 2025, with corresponding percentage changes [5] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.53, 11.50, and 31.78 respectively, with their respective环比 changes [5] - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of fund flow for A - shares, the main board, etc. were - 1132.47, - 717.50 respectively, and the 5 - day average values also varied [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 25883.69, 5535.36 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 7.17, 2.98, - 55.31 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.055, 105.540, 107.950, 105.475 respectively on August 19, 2025, with percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.19%, - 0.30%, - 0.27% respectively [6] - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5473%, 1.5581%, 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 0.00BP respectively [6]