上周，央行呵护提升债市再宽松预期，银行间资金面整体维持宽松态势。此外，监管对股市降温的态度明显，债市受此影响迎来 一波修复性行情，尤其是短端的确定性更高。 但就基金表现来看，中长期纯债基金整体业绩依然好于短债基金。业内建议，杠杆套息策略或是更优选择。 债市迎来修复性行情 中长债基金业绩好于短债产品 上周（1月19日至25日），央行在调降结构性货币政策工具利率的同时，不断释放货币仍有一定空间的宽松预期。资金面来看，央 行公开市场进行11810亿逆回购操作，到期9515亿元，全周净投放2295亿元，且MLF投放9000亿元，本月超额续作7000亿元。 | 建信利率债A | 0.957 | 广发昭利中短债A | 0.13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 格林30天滚动持有A | 0.883 | 甲万菱信稳鑫30天滚动A | 0.13 | | 二级债基 | | 传统货基 | | | 证券简称 | 周收益率% | 证券简称 | 周收益率% | | 工银添慧A | 4.526 | 长安货币A | 0.033 | | 光大添益A | 3.469 | 红土创新货币A | 0.029 | | 泰康丰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to systematically construct an analytical framework for the issuance and pricing of ultra - long bonds, and comprehensively analyzes the historical evolution and theoretical framework of overseas ultra - long bonds. It first reviews the history and motives of the US, Japan, and Germany in issuing ultra - long bonds, then analyzes the supply and demand sides, introduces the Bernanke three - factor pricing model to attribute the yield fluctuations of ultra - long bonds, and finally summarizes historical experience through the review of recent yield changes [4][7][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government's Motivation for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds - **Origin of Ultra - long Bonds**: In 1953, the US Treasury issued the first ultra - long bond to reduce the cost of frequent short - term bond issuance; in 1986, Germany issued its first ultra - long bond to extend debt duration and reduce refinancing risk; in 1999, Japan included 30 - year treasury bonds in its issuance system to diversify the bond market's maturity structure [21]. - **Motives for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds**: Overseas countries issue ultra - long bonds mainly to raise funds for structural fiscal expansion, optimize the debt structure, and meet the market demand for long - term safe assets. For example, after 2008, the US increased 30 - year bond issuance with the expansion of fiscal deficits, and Japan used ultra - long bonds to support the economy in a deflationary environment [24]. 3.2 Historical Review of Ultra - long Bond Development - **US**: The development of US ultra - long bonds follows the logic of "crisis - driven + policy linkage". During economic crises, the government increases issuance to supplement fiscal funds, and the Fed lowers interest rates and buys bonds to support the market. Yield trends are closely related to issuance scale [30]. - **Japan**: The development of Japanese ultra - long bonds is a win - win for finance and currency. It helps the government finance and reduces long - term costs, and is also a tool for the central bank to control the yield curve. Issuance scale increases during crises with central bank easing [34]. - **Germany**: German ultra - long bonds show a dynamic evolution of "demand - anchored, cycle - adapted, and function - expanded". Initially for debt maturity structure optimization, they later meet long - term expenditure needs and expand functions such as being an interest - rate benchmark and a safe - haven asset [37]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Pricing: Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Taking the US as an example, Congress confirms the fiscal budget and debt ceiling in advance, and the Treasury formulates a specific issuance plan. The issuance form includes new issuance and additional issuance. The issuance mechanism in the US, Germany, and Japan varies. The US uses a "single - price (Dutch)" auction, while Germany and Japan use a "multiple - price" auction. The proportion of long - term bond issuance is mainly determined by financing costs, term premiums, and debt management strategies [41][49][50]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for ultra - long bonds comes from three aspects. Pension funds and insurance companies have rigid asset - liability management needs; hedge funds, banks, and asset management institutions have trading and arbitrage needs; central banks buy and sell ultra - long bonds for unconventional monetary policies and financial stability. Currently, the demand for US ultra - long bonds is more diversified, with investment funds becoming the largest demanders, and the proportion of primary dealers' allocation decreasing [54][61]. 3.4 Ultra - long Bond Pricing - **Bernanke Three - factor Model**: The long - term interest rate is decomposed into inflation expectations, the expected path of short - term real interest rates, and term premiums [70]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Long - term inflation expectations fluctuate around the 2% inflation target and are affected by economic growth. When the economy grows strongly, inflation expectations rise [74][76]. - **Expected Real Short - term Interest Rates**: The short - term real interest rate is mainly determined by the benchmark interest rate. The Fed's benchmark interest rate decision considers inflation and the employment market [79]. - **Term Premiums**: In recent years, the impact of term premiums on long - term bond yields has increased. It includes factors such as liquidity premiums, credit risk premiums, growth premiums, and inflation volatility premiums. Central bank quantitative easing policies can suppress term premiums, and credit risk premiums were significant during the European debt crisis, while fiscal expansion can increase growth risk premiums [81][85][87]. 3.5 Recent Trends and Future Forecasts - **Current Trends**: In the context of the global "big fiscal" era, concerns about the debt sustainability of developed economies have led to a re - evaluation of term premiums, causing the yields of US, Japanese, and German ultra - long bonds to rise. For the US, expansionary fiscal policies and a weakened US dollar have increased term premiums; for Japan, the central bank's policy adjustment and fiscal deterioration have led to a rise in yields; for Germany, fiscal expansion has pushed up yields [91][93][95]. - **Future Forecasts**: Unless developed economies abandon the "debt - driven" development model and improve long - term productivity, overseas ultra - long bond yields may continue to rise. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds may reach around 4.6% and 5.1% respectively [97].

特朗普又在达沃斯放话了，说谁敢抛美债就报复，这话听起来霸气十足，几乎带着一种我就是老大的气场。全球经济这几年本来就如同乱麻一团，美国的债 务已经高得不行，而中国手里握着的美债已经多达6830亿，这时候早就不想继续跟着美国的节奏玩下去了。过去，美债可是全球各国外汇储备的香饽饽，但 如今呢？大家开始慢慢撤离，特朗普急了也正常。但问题是，这种威胁真的还能管用吗？ 特朗普这次在达沃斯论坛上放出了狠话，明确表示，任何国家如果因为格陵兰岛的问题抛售美债或美股，美国就会进行报复。他还声称自己手里握有所有的 牌，言下之意是要通过强硬手段来维稳。特朗普的这一番话一出口，市场立刻就感受到了震动。那么，这个警告的背景是什么呢？原来，特朗普一直想控制 格陵兰岛，因为那片土地上有大量的稀土资源，这对美国的军工和科技产业至关重要。丹麦拒绝出售格陵兰岛后，特朗普便威胁加征关税，结果引发了欧洲 国家的不满，尤其是丹麦的基金先是抛售了1亿美债，紧接着其他北欧国家也跟风减持。美债市场总规模已达到38万亿美元，这一笔钱倒不算大，但其背后 传递的信号却很明确：全球市场开始对美国的偿债能力产生了疑虑。特朗普急了，毕竟美国的债务总额接近40万亿美元，每 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of $8.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds by Danish and Swedish pension funds signals growing unease about U.S. debt sustainability and reflects tensions stemming from geopolitical issues, particularly related to Greenland [1][3][5][12]. Group 1: Actions and Reactions - Danish pension funds sold approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasuries, while Swedish funds accounted for about $80 billion, totaling $81 billion in reductions [3][8]. - Trump's immediate threat of retaliation against Europe for further reductions indicates a heightened sensitivity to any perceived challenges to U.S. financial stability [1][12]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's dismissal of the reduction as insignificant appears to be a strategy to maintain market confidence, despite the underlying concerns about European holdings of U.S. debt [10][22]. Group 2: Underlying Concerns - The pension funds' actions stem from a lack of confidence in the long-term security of U.S. debt, exacerbated by rising U.S. debt levels and unpredictable political behavior from Trump [5][15]. - The total amount of U.S. Treasuries held by European investors exceeds $3.6 trillion, representing nearly 40% of all foreign-held U.S. debt, indicating the significant role Europe plays in U.S. financial markets [8][22]. - The potential for a broader sell-off by European funds could lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. and greater financial market instability, raising alarms about the implications for the U.S. economy [17][23]. Group 3: Economic Context - The ongoing investigation into the Federal Reserve's operations and Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts highlight the precarious state of U.S. financial conditions, which could be further complicated by European actions [17][20]. - The interconnectedness of U.S. and European financial markets, including currency swap agreements, suggests that any significant sell-off of U.S. debt could have dire consequences for both economies [23][25]. - Despite the risks associated with U.S. debt, it remains one of the most liquid and relatively safe assets globally, compelling European investors to maintain their holdings despite dissatisfaction [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has launched her election campaign with the primary goal of ensuring a smooth voting process on February 8, while avoiding significant fluctuations in the financial markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Election Campaign and Market Stability - The campaign officially commenced on Tuesday, with Takashi aiming to solidify the ruling coalition's majority in the House of Representatives [3] - Recent polls indicate a slight decline in her approval ratings, yet they remain at a relatively high level overall [3] - A Japanese Finance Ministry official noted that any measures to lower bond yields could lead to further depreciation of the yen, increasing imported inflation and raising interest rate pressures [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Government Strategies - Speculation arose last week regarding potential coordinated actions between the U.S. and Japan in the foreign exchange market, which temporarily boosted the yen's exchange rate [3] - There are currently no signs that authorities have engaged in actual intervention, although Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have called for calm in the Japanese bond market, which has alleviated upward pressure on yields [3] - Lombard Odier's senior macro strategist Homin Lee stated that once the new cabinet is formed post-election and the annual budget is passed, it will become easier to achieve a balance between managing the yen's exchange rate and Japanese bond yields [4]

近期，国债期货市场持续上行，尤其是长端债表现偏强，国债收益率曲线呈平坦化趋势。分析人士认 为，债市交易情绪回暖，主要受益于货币宽松预期升温以及权益市场"降温"带来的资金分流效应。央行 超预期投放中长期流动性，资金面无忧，近期公布的经济数据并未对债市造成太大影响，一季度债市回 暖行情有望延续。 ...

一方面，从2026年全年视角来看，我们认为利率中枢下移的概率相对较大。这一判断主要基于当前的经 济基本面：投资端面临压力，消费端在国补退坡后，商品消费走弱趋势显著，地产端等领域也表现疲 软。总体来看，多项传统经济指标均反映出当前"弱现实"的态势。 另一方面，从货币政策来看，短期央行仍以呵护市场为主。尽管市场对短期进一步强宽松的预期较弱， 但对于货币或流动性收紧，市场普遍认为2026年一季度不会重演2025年一季度的行情——2025年一季度 的流动性收紧，主要源于2024年底利率单边下行过于显著，当时利率可能已低于政策合意水平。 短期来看，债券市场对流动性收紧的担忧程度较低。结合去年的情况，无论是配合财政发力，还是在全 球宽松的大背景下，我国货币政策保持灵活自主，我们认为2026年全年仍有一次降息的可能性。降息一 方面需要配合经济基本面的实际情况，另一方面也是货币政策工具的储备与运用。例如去年，在遭遇较 强关税冲击后，我们于5月落地了一次降息。今年或许也会类似，短期降息落地概率不高，但从全年来 看，仍有较大可能性。 从这一角度来看，一季度利率债走势可能面临一定压力：既要应对信贷"开门红"的相关压力，也要担忧 长 ...

Group 1 - The bond market performance in 2025 was not strong, with varying trading themes throughout the year. The first quarter saw a significant rise in interest rates due to excessive pricing of monetary easing expectations for the end of 2024, leading to a correction in these expectations in early 2025 [1] - In the second quarter, the bond market experienced a rally influenced by tariff disturbances. By the third quarter, the stock market showed strong performance under the "anti-involution" backdrop, leading to a stock-bond seesaw effect, with bond rates rising again. The fourth quarter exhibited weak fluctuations, with diminishing effects from previous trends and uncertainties from new rate regulations [3] - For 2026, the first quarter is viewed as a favorable time for bond market allocation, with expectations that interest rates may peak during this period. Factors such as concerns over long-term bond supply and the "opening red" of credit at the beginning of the year may exert pressure on rates, while the market anticipates a potential 10 basis points rate cut over the year [4] Group 2 - The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized as "weak reality," with a tendency for loose monetary policy and a high probability of interest rate cuts throughout the year. The stock-bond seesaw effect may weaken in the second half of the year, suggesting a strategy of accumulating ten-year government bond ETFs during corrections [5] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has notable advantages, including a transparent portfolio of bonds with remaining maturities of 7-10 years. It has achieved positive returns annually since 2018, with a market fluctuation of 0.3% in 2025. The ETF offers lower volatility compared to 30-year bonds and better coupon rates than shorter-duration bonds, making it a stable investment option [5]

上周，在美债和日债大幅下跌的带动下，全球债市遭遇集体"抛售潮"。这场动荡表面由美国对欧洲的关 税威胁及日本扩张性财政政策引发，但核心问题仍在于全球市场对发达经济体高债务发展模式难以为继 的担忧在不断放大。 如今，市场的疑虑已通过资产价格的连锁反应显露无遗。首先是主权债券避险属性的褪色。在特朗普政 府一度威胁欧洲就"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"与美国达成协议的背景下，丹麦、瑞典等国基金宣布抛售 美债，直言美国财政状况"长期不可持续"。也有报道称，日本保险公司为应对本土收益率上升，开始减 持美债头寸。这些举动动摇了美债作为"全球资产定价之锚"的地位。与此同时，套息交易平仓放大了波 动：日本国债收益率飙升后，投资者被迫抛售美债以回流资金，形成跨市场的负面反馈循环。这一切反 映出投资者将发达国家债券视为安全港的信心正在动摇。 当前，全球债市面临多方风险。一是债务货币化压力加剧。若经济衰退迫使发达经济体央行重返量化宽 松，通过印钞缓解政府偿债压力，可能引起发达经济体法定货币信用危机，推动黄金等硬资产长期走 强。二是财政紧缩与社会动荡的恶性循环。部分经济体可能被迫削减福利或增税，但政治阻力极大，类 似欧洲债务危机期间的社会撕 ...

每经AI快讯，周一(1月26日)欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率跌5.7个基点，报3.438%；两年期法债收 益率跌2.8个基点，报2.250%；30年期法债收益率跌5.4个基点，报4.342%。意大利10年期国债收益率跌 4.7个基点，报3.466%。西班牙10年期国债收益率跌4.3个基点，报3.229%。希腊10年期国债收益率跌4.4 个基点，报3.466%。 ...