Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.43% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 113th consecutive trading day, with an increase of over 140 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance released a report indicating a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate consumption, including subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for sectors like elderly care and childcare [1] - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [1] Institutional Insights - According to Industrial Securities, the probability of systemic risk from tightening overseas liquidity is low, and A-shares may remain resilient supported by stable economic and policy expectations [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption, as well as strong industry trends in AI computing power and low-valuation technology growth areas [2] Market Trends - The A-share market continued to experience high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, indicating pressure above and support below [3] - Daily trading volume averaged around 2 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline from October's peak, while margin trading balances increased to 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating high participation from leveraged funds [3] - The report suggests a potential shift from high-valuation technology stocks to undervalued sectors as fund managers seek to lock in profits [3] Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, it is advised to avoid chasing high-priced stocks and focus on sectors with lower crowding and better profit-valuation matching, such as photovoltaics, electricity, and chemicals [3] - Long-term investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with confirmed growth potential, including AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced a strong rally, with the Hong Kong medical ETF (159718.SZ) rising by 1.04% and net subscriptions of 3 million units during the day [1] - Notable stocks such as Jinxin Fertility (01951) increased by 5.51%, Weimaitong (02192) by 5.13%, and Shenwei Pharmaceutical (02877) by 4.45% [1] - The negotiation for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List and the price negotiation for commercial insurance innovative drug list was completed, with 120 domestic and foreign companies participating [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector sentiment has recently declined, but with ongoing business development (BD) activities, the sector's sustainability is expected to continue [2] - The current investment and financing data, orders, and performance metrics show a positive trend in the innovative drug industry chain [2] - The Hong Kong medical ETF includes a balanced composition of innovative drugs, CXO, internet healthcare, and innovative devices, making it a convenient tool for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is experiencing a significant rally, driven by strong performance in medical devices, aesthetic medicine, innovative drugs, and traditional Chinese medicine, with various ETFs reflecting this upward trend [1][3][5][10]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - A-share medical device stocks are leading the gains, with Ji'an Medical hitting the daily limit and Zhongyuan Hehe also reaching the limit, while the leading aesthetic medicine company, Aimeike, surged over 7% [1]. - The largest medical ETF in A-shares (512170) rose by 1.66%, with trading volume exceeding 400 million yuan, surpassing the previous day's total [1]. - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares is also performing well, with Huadong Medicine leading with nearly a 6% increase, and other companies like Te Bao Biological and Jichuan Pharmaceutical also seeing gains [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect's innovative drug sector saw a sharp rise, with the popular innovative drug ETF (520880) climbing by 1%, covering 37 innovative drug companies, most of which reported gains [5]. - Recent capital inflows have been significant, with the 520880 ETF receiving a net subscription of 130 million yuan last week [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The current market conditions are viewed as a high-probability zone for medium to long-term investments in the biopharmaceutical sector, with recommendations for balanced allocations within the sector [6]. - Suggested investment strategies include focusing on innovative drug ETFs (520880), pharmaceutical ETFs (562050), and medical ETFs (512170), each with distinct characteristics and advantages [7]. - The medical ETF (512170) is noted for being the largest in the market, with a scale of 25.6 billion yuan, while the pharmaceutical ETF (562050) is the only one tracking the pharmaceutical index [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the pharmaceutical sector is poised for a valuation recovery in the fourth quarter, supported by improved earnings and favorable policies, alongside a loose overseas liquidity environment [10]. - The completion of the third-quarter report disclosures and a shift in market style are expected to benefit innovative drugs, potentially leading to a new round of price increases [10].

证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-10 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 8536.77 | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6764.34 | 行业相对指数表现 -16% -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:徐智敏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100003 Email: xuzhimin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《医药 2025 年三季报总结：Q3 震荡调 整，配置性价比已现》 - 2025.11.02 医药生物行业报告 （2025.11.03-2025.11.07） 自免口服药物市场存在供需错配，关注 NME 带来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Views - The medical device and medical services sectors have shown strong revenue performance, while the chemical preparation sector has experienced year-on-year net profit growth [2][21]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved a revenue of CNY 1,825.74 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, with a net profit of CNY 139.66 billion, down 1.59% year-on-year [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical value in investment strategies, suggesting a focus on innovative drug and medical device sectors [3][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 2.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.22 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index also declined by 2.62%, lagging behind the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 3.7 percentage points [1][16]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the pharmaceutical sector reported a revenue of CNY 598.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, and a net profit of CNY 40.51 billion, up 7.67% year-on-year [2][21]. - The gross profit margin for the pharmaceutical sector was 31.4%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][21]. Sector Analysis - The medical device sector saw a significant revenue increase of 10.65% in Q3 2025, attributed to a recovery in domestic bidding [22]. - The chemical preparation sector's revenue decreased by 0.82% in Q3 2025, but net profit increased by 5.05%, driven by strong performance from leading innovative drug companies [21][22]. - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) sub-sector showed robust growth, with a revenue increase of 10.93% and a net profit increase of 47.90% in Q3 2025 [22]. Investment Strategy - The report advocates for investments in innovative drug chains and high-end medical devices, highlighting companies such as Innovent Biologics, Eifang Biologics, and Mindray Medical [7][37]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation is recovering, with a focus on clinical value driving future investments [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a period of volatility, but the fundamental industry logic remains solid, indicating long-term investment value in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (520500) has seen active trading, with an average daily trading volume of 999.1 million yuan in November, a 53% increase from October's 648 million yuan [1]. - The ETF has recorded net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, increasing its fund size to a historical high of 1.838 billion yuan and total shares to 1.094 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The "going global" process for domestic innovative drugs has accelerated significantly, with 115 licensing agreements totaling 101.24 billion USD reported by October 21, 2025, surpassing the total of 51.9 billion USD for all of 2024 [2]. - The National Medical Products Administration has approved two innovative drug products for market launch in November 2025, focusing on critical areas such as cancer treatment and COVID-19 [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The innovative drug sector has shown a significant turnaround in profitability, with a 36% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, and a shift from a net loss of 500 million yuan in the previous year to a profit of 1.5 billion yuan [2]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese innovative drug industry is expected to transition from a "research investment phase" to a "value realization phase," supported by improved policies and global market expansion [2]. - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (520500) is positioned as an effective tool for investors to capitalize on opportunities in the Hong Kong innovative drug market, benefiting from its large scale and favorable liquidity [2].

近期医药板块的表现如何？主要受到哪些因素影响？ 上周，医药板块表现较为惨淡，是所有一级行业中跌幅最大的，情绪也相对低 迷，成交量占比下降了约 5 个百分点。创新药和 CRO（合同研究组织）调整幅 度较大，这可能与之前机构持仓较高有关。此外，海外减肥药的影响也不可忽 视。礼来和诺和诺德与美国政府达成协议，从 2026 年起供应的 Tirzepatide 每月价格将降至 300 美元，并承诺未来口服上市后的价格不超过 350 美元。 这一降价进医保的举措引发了市场对其他创新药在美国市场面临类似价格压力 的担忧。 澳华内镜 20251109 摘要 医药板块进入业绩真空期，关注四季度及明年布局，创新药及上游产业 链仍是重点。外需型 CXO 上游表现良好，内需复苏迹象显现，建议关注 临床 CRO 和医疗设备板块。 医疗设备行业招投标加速，财政周期开启带动需求释放。装备导向公司 如联影医疗已走出，迈瑞去库存接近尾声，预计四季度或明年初回归正 常水平，国产市占率提升明显。 内窥镜行业需求积累将在四季度或明年上半年释放，新品上市激发采购 浪潮，国产品牌如开立 HD650 4K 内镜、澳华 AQ400 等推动市场增长， 招标金 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of a strong US dollar on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the broader implications for foreign investment and local liquidity [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Reasons for Recent Dollar Strength**: - The US government shutdown has led to liquidity tightening, with the Treasury's account balance rising significantly, pulling approximately $700 billion in liquidity since June [2]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from nearly 100% to around 60% [2]. - The weakness of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, has also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar [2]. 2. **Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market**: - The Hong Kong stock market is heavily influenced by foreign capital, with foreign investment accounting for about 60% of the market [1][4]. - Historical data shows a strong correlation between foreign capital flows and the US dollar index, with significant outflows occurring during periods of rapid dollar appreciation [4]. - Since the end of September, flexible foreign capital has net exited the Hong Kong stock market by approximately HKD 75 billion [1][4]. 3. **Local Currency and Liquidity Dynamics**: - Hong Kong operates under a linked exchange rate system, where the Monetary Authority must withdraw liquidity when the HKD approaches the weak side of the peg at 7.85 [1][4]. - Despite the dollar's strength, the HKD has remained close to the strong side of the peg due to inflows from mainland China and reduced expectations for US rate cuts, meaning there is currently no need for liquidity withdrawal [1][4]. 4. **Market Outlook**: - Recent factors such as stabilizing US-China trade negotiations and potential resolution of the US government shutdown may alleviate pressure on the Hong Kong market [5]. - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is considered reasonable, with potential for a bull market if suppressive factors are lifted and quality assets accumulate in sectors like internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [5][6]. - The technology sector, particularly AI leaders, innovative pharmaceuticals, and brokerage firms, are expected to lead market growth in the future [3][5][6]. Other Important Insights - The strong dollar has a direct impact on liquidity in the Hong Kong market, affecting both foreign and local investors [1][4]. - The potential for a bull market hinges on the resolution of current economic pressures and the influx of new capital into high-quality sectors [5][6].

Group 1: Forum Overview - The "Intelligent China: Setting Sail for the Future" forum hosted by GF Securities took place in Hong Kong from November 6 to 7, focusing on sectors such as AI, robotics, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1] - Approximately 80 well-known listed companies and numerous institutional investors participated, creating a platform for dialogue between outstanding listed companies and top global investment institutions [1] Group 2: Key Presentations - Zheng Hongmeng, Chairman of Industrial Fulian, discussed the rapid growth of the AI server market and the impact of generative AI on data center infrastructure, emphasizing the company's core advantages in AI server system assembly [1] - Zhou Qunfei, Chairman of Lens Technology, highlighted the challenges and opportunities brought by AI edge hardware, aiming to become a leader in AI edge manufacturing by upgrading from component supplier to solution provider [1] - Wang Dongning, President of Qinhuai Data, spoke on the integration of AI and energy, noting that energy constraints are critical for the expansion of AI infrastructure, and the company is focused on building a new generation of AI intelligent data centers [2] - Wen Shuhao, Co-founder and Chairman of Jingtai Holdings, emphasized the role of AI and robotics in accelerating drug and material discovery, addressing traditional challenges in these fields [2] - Jin Lei, General Manager of Changchun High-tech, provided an overview of the company's innovative drug pipeline, reaffirming its commitment to innovation and efficiency in the pharmaceutical sector [2] Group 3: Future Research Directions - GF Securities plans to enhance its research team in response to global industrial changes and China's advantageous industries, focusing on AI+ industrial chains, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - The company aims to promote outstanding Chinese listed companies to overseas investors and develop an English research product system to increase coverage and service depth for core overseas institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 59.5% since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.0%. However, the healthcare sector has recently experienced a 10% pullback, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas clinical advancements for authorized innovative drug pipelines, which are expected to be significant catalysts for stock price increases [3]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic innovative drug research and development demand, driven by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in the scale of innovative drug transactions abroad [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report suggests a more conservative investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks within the pharmaceutical sector. It notes that the recent healthcare insurance negotiations and the implementation of the 11th batch of centralized procurement have led to reduced market attention [3]. - The report identifies key products to watch in the upcoming healthcare negotiations, including drugs from companies like 信达生物 and 康方生物, among others [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in 三生制药, 固生堂, 巨子生物, 药明合联, 信达生物, and 中国生物制药, citing their strong potential for growth and favorable market conditions [3]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their promising clinical trial results and strategic partnerships, such as 三生制药's collaboration with Pfizer on global clinical trials [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for recommended companies, showing target prices and potential upside percentages. For example, 固生堂 has a target price of 48.28 with a 62% upside potential [2].