Report Overview - The report is based on the content of the new energy metal theme report meeting held by Antaike on April 29, 2025, focusing on the silicon-based spot and futures markets [1] Group 1: Guangzhou Futures Exchange - **Industrial Silicon Futures Market**: The market is advancing steadily with daily average trading volume reaching 237,700 lots and daily average open interest at 222,000 lots. The proportion of legal entity clients has reached 66%. The correlation between futures and spot prices is 0.99. Over 20,000 industrial clients and 105 production enterprises are involved in hedging, and 14 listed companies have announced industrial silicon hedging. China's influence on global new energy prices has increased [2] - **Polysilicon Futures Market**: After its listing, it has been operating stably with daily average trading volume of 43,100 lots and daily average open interest of 46,300 lots. In April 2025, the proportion of legal entity clients' open interest increased from 35% at the initial stage to 59%. Leading enterprises such as Tongwei Co., Ltd., JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., Hongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd., and TBEA Co., Ltd. have announced polysilicon futures hedging business [2] - **Polysilicon Futures Delivery Methods**: There are three methods: exchange for physicals, one - time delivery, and rolling delivery. For the PS2506 contract, the exchange - for - physicals period is from the contract listing date to May 28, the rolling delivery period is from June 3 to June 13, and the one - time delivery period is three trading days after June 16 [3] - **New Product Listing Plan**: The exchange will accelerate the listing of new energy metal futures such as manganese, nickel, lithium hydroxide, and photovoltaic modules, and plan strategically for carbon emission rights, electricity, green certificates, etc., and explore derivatives of wind, solar, hydro, and gas meteorological indices [3] Group 2: Antaike - **Q1 2025 Silicon Industry Characteristics**: Prices are at a low level with industrial silicon down 12% and polysilicon basically flat. Supply has decreased significantly, with industrial silicon down 1.1% and polysilicon down 44.7%. Domestic demand has continued to decline, with industrial silicon demand down 16.8% year - on - year and polysilicon demand down 44.6% year - on - year. In terms of imports and exports, industrial silicon exports are down 7.9% year - on - year, and polysilicon exports are less than imports. The industry is in full - scale loss and has broken through the strong support of cash cost. Inventories remain high, with 950,000 tons of industrial silicon and 400,000 tons of polysilicon [4] - **2025 Silicon Energy Industry Concerns**: The impact of industrial policies on the market, the commissioning of new projects in each link, the impact of the China - US tariff war on the industry, the impact of the futures market on the industry, and the supply - demand balance and inventory changes in each link [4] - **Silicon Industry Chain Situation**: Currently, supply in each link is sufficient, but demand growth is lower than expected. High inventories, falling prices, and losses in each link are present. The market supply - demand expectation is deteriorating, and the industry is looking forward to a turnaround [6] - **Impact of Industrial Policies on the PV Market**: Currently, demand has exploded, production capacity is tight, component prices have skyrocketed, and the entire industrial chain has seen price increases. In the short - term, demand will decrease, prices will fall, inventories will rise, leading to industry consolidation and highlighting the advantages of leading enterprises [6] - **Impact of US "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy on PV Industry**: In the short - term, it significantly impacts the PV industry. It suppresses US domestic PV installation demand, hits the Southeast Asian PV supply chain led by China, and North Africa and the Middle East will become new investment areas for PV exports to the US. In the long - term, it forces the industry to transform, and Chinese enterprises need to focus on optimizing overseas production capacity, independent technological innovation, and market diversification [6] - **China's Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Outlook**: Antaike expects that in 2025, the total output of primary silicon and recycled silicon - supplemented industrial silicon may reach 4.6 million tons. The output of organic silicon will be about 2.5 million tons, and polysilicon output will be about 1.32 million tons. The total demand for industrial silicon will be about 3.85 million tons, including about 900,000 tons for aluminum alloy, about 1.25 million tons for organic silicon, about 1.6 million tons for polysilicon, and about 100,000 tons for other materials. Industrial silicon exports will be about 700,000 tons. The oversupply situation will continue [7]

晨报 工业硅 整理 逻辑：昨日国内工业硅现货价格再次下挫低位，行情弱势难改，现货亏本 出售情况明显，生产压力累积。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9400-9600 元/吨，华 东 421#硅在 10200-10400 元/吨。期货端：昨日期货主力 si2506 增仓下跌明显， 开盘即日内最高，尾盘下跌加速，收盘价为 8540，-2.68%，日增仓 7060 手， 当前主力持仓总数为 19.52 万手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 工业硅：供需矛盾难解价格不断下挫，硅价延续弱势 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 供给端：新疆企业减产计划再度传出，目前尚 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.7万吨，环比减少20.23%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为25.1万 吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为113500吨，处于高位，有机 硅生产利润为-284元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为60.43%，环比持平，低于历史同期平 均水平；铝合金锭库存为1.52万吨，处于低位，进口亏损为639元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和 利润为512.55元/吨，再生铝开工率为55.63%，还比减少0.89%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧55 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Southwest's hydropower-rich season with lower electricity prices will drive production resumption, weakening the effect of northwest production cuts. Meanwhile, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is limited. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out in May, with the lower support coming from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang manufacturers and the upper pressure from high inventory and marginal increments. - In May, the adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production is high, and the one - way decline space is limited. It will mainly show weak range - bound fluctuations, and opportunities for the convergence of near - and far - month price spreads can be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies are newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In April, polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 25th, the main contract 2506 closed at 39,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 11.67%. Industrial silicon futures also fluctuated weakly. As of the 25th, the main contract 2506 closed at 8,865 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.73% [5]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices continued to decline. The Baichuan reference price was 10,178 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 502 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 9,350 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, and 421 decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Price Spreads - In April, the price spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 2,110 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot discount narrowed to 65 yuan/ton [5][17]. 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, the estimated domestic industrial silicon production in April was 290,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%. The monthly number of open furnaces decreased by 15 to 219, and the furnace opening rate decreased by 1.88% to 27.48%. In the north, large manufacturers in Xinjiang started maintenance, with 9 new furnace shutdowns in Xinjiang, 2 in Gansu, and 3 in Inner Mongolia. In the southwest, there was no change in the operation in Yunnan, and 2 furnaces were ignited in Sichuan silicon plants. In other regions, one furnace was shut down each in Ningxia, Shaanxi, Henan, and Liaoning [3][5]. 3.5 Demand - In April, polysilicon production decreased by 6,000 tons to 96,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%. The production of DMC increased by 10,800 tons to 167,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% and a month - on - month increase of 6.9%. The monthly price of P - type polysilicon remained stable at 33,800 yuan/ton, while the N - type decreased by 20,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton. The terminal rush - to - install subsided, the component market cooled down rapidly, downstream surplus materials were abundant, order delivery periods were postponed, and the pre - May Day stocking volume was low. The monthly price of organic silicon decreased significantly by 2,500 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers maintained a wait - and - see attitude during the tariff turmoil, with weak purchasing power. New orders from monomer plants were still mainly for essential and small - volume needs, and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly. Subsequently, they may return to the state of shutdown and maintenance [3][5]. 3.6 Inventory - On the exchange side, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 435 tons to 348,400 tons in April, while polysilicon inventory increased to 300,000 tons. In the social inventory, industrial silicon inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 409,100 tons, among which factory inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 244,100 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 52,000 tons, Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 65,000 tons, and Kunming Port's inventory remained stable at 48,000 tons. Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 26,770 tons [3][5].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250428：震荡企稳 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/28 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,450.00 | | -0.53% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,780.00 | | -1.07% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 670.00 | | 45.00 | | 元/千克 38.00 N型多晶硅料 | | -3.80% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 38,390.00 | | -2.50% | | -390.00 基差 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,450.00 | | -515.00 -0.53% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,550.00 | | 0.00% | | 元/吨 9,350.00 | | -0.53% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,650.00 | | | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | | -1.03% | | 元/吨 9 ...

1、10 万吨节能环保项目产出首炉工业硅 2025 年 4 月 23 日 21 时 32 分，永昌硅业年产 10 万吨水电硅节能环保项目现场传来捷报 — 4 号电炉成功产出第一炉工业硅，标志着永昌硅业新建项目试生产取得阶段性重大成果。 2、 总投资 2 亿！湖北赛信 : 年产 5000 吨功能型有机硅材料备案通过 4 月 18 日，湖北省政务网公布了湖北赛信新材料有限公司年产 5000 吨电子材料用功能型有 机硅材料备案信息。 项目名称：年产 5000 吨电子材料用功能型有机硅材料 建设单位：湖北赛信新材料有限公司 建设性质：扩建 所属行政区域：湖北省 / 孝感市 / 应城市 投资内容及规模：总投资 20000 元。本项目占地面积 41 亩，在新征用地内建设年产 5000 吨有机硅新材料生产装置，并建设中控室、综合楼、仓库、公辅车间等配套设施。 3、 美国对东南亚光伏产品加征关税 4 月 21 日，美国商务部正式宣布对东南亚四国（马来西亚、柬埔寨、泰国、越南）太阳能电 池及组件加征关税。根据裁定，反倾销税率范围为 6.1% 至 271.28% ，反补贴税率则介于 14.64% 至 3403.96% ，其中柬埔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, leading to increased pessimism among market participants and a decline in demand from downstream sectors [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon fell from 9015 CNY/ton to 8930 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.94% during the week of April 17-23, 2025 [1]. - The national average price is reported at 9774 CNY/ton, down by 89 CNY/ton, with specific grades showing varied declines: 553 grade at 9541 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY/ton), 441 grade at 10015 CNY/ton (down 36 CNY/ton), and 421 grade at 10341 CNY/ton (down 80 CNY/ton) [1]. - FOB prices have decreased by 30-50 USD/ton [1]. Market Sentiment - The decline in industrial silicon prices has intensified negative market sentiment, with downstream sectors engaging in minimal purchasing based on demand [2]. - Overall market transactions are sluggish, contributing to the downward price trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a continued disparity in operating rates, with northern regions maintaining higher rates compared to southern regions, where production recovery intentions are low [2]. - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly organic silicon monomer manufacturers, is under pressure due to inventory issues and declining operational rates [2]. - The demand from polysilicon manufacturers remains stable, while aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing based on their needs, indicating a slight overall decrease in demand for industrial silicon [2]. Price Outlook - The current supply-demand fundamentals do not show signs of improvement, and the market sentiment remains poor, with no indications of price increases in the near term [2]. - Prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a low range [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The industrial silicon market is currently experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand. Under the continuous pressure of the external environment, demand has become even more sluggish, and inventory remains at a high level. As a result, silicon prices continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotation - The market quotation of industrial silicon declined yesterday, and the futures price dropped significantly. The current prices are as follows: East China oxygenated 553 silicon is at 9,900 - 10,100 yuan/ton, and East China 421 silicon is at 10,400 - 11,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract si2505 was 9,020, a decrease of 2.28%. Funds are constantly shifting to far - month contracts. The main contract reduced positions by 12,645 lots, with a position of 133,800 lots and a trading volume of 8.045 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - In the north (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong), the weekly supply of silicon enterprises in production is temporarily stable, but they are under production pressure. The market is sluggish, and the loss of enterprises is widening. Yunnan is still in the dry season, with stable start - up, and the future start - up willingness is average. With the production cuts of the three major downstream industries, demand is continuously weakening, and futures - cash merchants are selling at a small discount on the basis of the basis [1]. Demand Side - The price of polysilicon is weakly stable, and the market has a strong bearish sentiment. Some silicon material enterprises' quotations are loosening. The current prices are: re - feeding material is at 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material is at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material is at 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material is at 41 - 42 yuan/kg [1]. - The spot price of organic silicon DMC continues to decline. The mainstream opening price in the market is referred to as 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The game between buyers' price - pressing and sellers' concessions continues, the trading atmosphere is light, the single - transaction volume is generally low, and the market currently lacks a catalyst to break the current deadlock [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, but enterprise sales are poor. End - users purchase on demand, and the finished product inventory is slightly increasing [1]. Inventory On April 16, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 69,806 lots, a single - day decrease of 386 lots, and the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a high level [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon closed down 3.72% and polysilicon closed down 4.16%, with pessimistic market sentiment spreading. For industrial silicon, overall supply changes are limited, though different regions have opposite trends. Demand from the silicone and aluminum alloy sectors has limitations. High inventory is a key factor affecting the subsequent market. For polysilicon, there is little new capacity in 2025, and demand is weakening. High inventory also exerts pressure on prices [7]. - The recommended operation is that the main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly range - bound between 9400 - 9800 with a stop - loss range of 9300 - 9900. The main contract of polysilicon should be mainly short - term volatile between 41000 - 43000 with a stop - loss range of 40000 - 43500 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon futures fell 3.72% this week, with the basis strengthening as the futures did not follow the spot. The 5 - month contract is about to end, and it remains to be seen if there will be a maturity - return opportunity next week. Polysilicon futures fell 4.16%, with the downstream rush - installation period ending, subsequent orders decreasing, and the high inventory expected to lead to a decline in spot prices [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply changes are limited overall. Demand from the silicone and aluminum alloy sectors has limitations, and high inventory affects the market. For polysilicon, few new capacities are planned in 2025, and demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced orders and high inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fell 3.72% this week. As of April 11, 2025, the average industrial silicon operating rate dropped to 36.62%, a decrease of 6.75%. In February 2025, the industrial silicon output was 289,350 tons. As of April 11, 2025, the spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, and as of April 10, 2025, the basis was 595 yuan/ton [8][14][20]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose 0.00% this week. As of April 11, 2025, the spot price was 42 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 190 yuan/g [8][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This week, the raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The cost in the southwest region is high, with the cost of 421 silicon in the southwest region at 13,400 - 13,900 yuan/ton, while the market price is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 2,200 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Many manufacturers have no intention to start production [32]. - **Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 70,053 lots. As of April 3, 2025, the total social inventory of metal silicon was 608,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons, still at a historical high [38]. - **Downstream Industry - Organic Silicon**: The output and operating rate of organic silicon continued to decline this week. As of April 11, 2025, the weekly output was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 61.49%, a decrease of 1.06%. The spot price was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit was 1,538.75 yuan, showing a significant increase [44][50]. - **Downstream Industry - Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy declined, and the inventory increased. As of April 11, 2025, the price was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 19,300 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from last week [54]. - **Downstream Industry - Polysilicon**: The silicon wafer price decreased slightly, and the battery cell price remained flat. As of April 9, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.39 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.32 yuan/watt, the same as last week. The rush - installation demand cooled down, which is expected to drag down the polysilicon demand [62]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of photovoltaic - grade trichlorosilane remained flat. In March 2025, the polysilicon production was 95,700 tons. Some enterprises plan to increase production in April, with an expected increase of 4,000 - 5,000 tons [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On April 9, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 42,245 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.01%, and the position decreased by 14 lots to 35,983 lots. The main industrial silicon contract 2505 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.52%, and the position decreased by 15,256 lots to 148,500 lots. The joint production cuts by enterprises are limited in scale, and demand remains weak. There is no consensus among silicon plants on whether to expand production cuts, making it difficult to achieve continuous and effective inventory reduction. The market's reaction to further production cuts will gradually weaken. The polysilicon delivery business started in April, but there is no increase in spot trading volume, and there are differences in opinions between futures - spot traders and manufacturers on far - month pricing. Due to the earthquake in Myanmar, downstream orders' delivery periods have been postponed, and short - term pressure has been exerted on the silicon crystal market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Polysilicon and industrial silicon prices fluctuated weakly on April 9. The joint production cuts by enterprises have limited effects, and demand is weak. The polysilicon delivery business started in April, but spot trading has not accelerated, and there are differences in far - month pricing. The earthquake in Myanmar has affected downstream production and put pressure on the short - term silicon crystal market [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 9,475 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton. Some spot prices decreased, such as the price of 421 silicon in some regions. The current lowest delivery product price remained at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount of 45 yuan/ton to a premium of 30 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 42,245 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract also decreased by 160 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the spot discount narrowed from 405 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,500 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained at 15,500 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained at 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt decreased by 114 tons to 70,117 tons. The total industrial silicon inventory increased by 3,385 tons to 352,340 tons on a weekly basis. The social inventory decreased by 5,100 tons to 402,600 tons, with a decrease in factory inventory [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][10]. 3.3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][17]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][21][23]. 3.3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][29][33].