Group 1: Precious Metals - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts globally are driving an increase in risk aversion, leading to sustained gold purchases by the People's Bank of China, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, providing support for gold prices [2] - Companies to watch in the precious metals sector include Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] Group 2: Energy Metals - There is frequent news of production cuts in the overseas supply chain, indicating that the entire industry may continue to see signals of production reductions or shutdowns [3] - In the lithium carbonate sector, a deep capacity integration is beginning, with lithium prices showing signs of recovery after hitting a bottom [3] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [3] Group 3: Copper and Aluminum - The raw material shortage is making it easier for copper prices to rise while making it difficult for them to fall, with a recommendation to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [3] - In the aluminum sector, supply restrictions on electrolytic aluminum and increased demand from the new energy sector are expected to continue, while profits may recover as alumina production capacity is gradually released starting in 2025 [3] - Suggested companies in the aluminum sector include Shenhuo Group, Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [3] Group 4: Tungsten - China is tightening tungsten supply, leading to a continued upward trend in the market [4] - Relevant companies in the tungsten sector include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4]

数据显示，截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中， 是规模最大的ETF。 成份股方面，国城矿业涨停，盛新锂能涨逾7%，中矿资源、雅化集团携手涨超5%，天齐锂业、中孚实业、永兴材 料、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 图：有色龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 今日（12月17日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）强势上攻，场内涨幅盘中上探1.92%，现涨 1.81%，值得关注的是，该ETF昨天单日吸金1013万元，拉长时间来看，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色 金属板块后市表现，积极进场抢筹！ 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。东方证 券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周 期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进度、"反内卷"政策 效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.10%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.03% [1] - Energy metals, pork industry, and lithium mining sectors showed the highest gains, while aerospace, dairy, and eSIM sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3822.51, down 0.06%, with 684 gainers and 1202 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 12927.39, up 0.10%, with 942 gainers and 1411 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3072.62, up 0.03%, with 452 gainers and 710 losers [2] External Market - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.62%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Nasdaq up 0.23% [3] - November U.S. job additions were 64,000, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about the economy [3] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with notable drops in Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and NetEase, while some electric vehicle companies saw gains [3] Industry Insights - CICC predicts a turning point in the chemical industry cycle, citing a decline in capital expenditure and the exit of outdated overseas capacity, leading to low growth in industry capacity [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the rapid development of In Vivo CART technology, with significant early data from companies like Esobiotec [5] - Huaxi Securities suggests focusing on consumer sectors as technology rotation slows, with expectations of policy support for domestic demand [6] - CITIC Securities notes a "K-shaped recovery" in the Chinese consumer market, driven by supply-side constraints and wealth effects from high-net-worth individuals [8] - Galaxy Securities indicates that the securities sector is at a historical low valuation, with policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting investor confidence [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日能源金属板块主力资金净流出8.39亿元，游资资金净流入2.15亿元，散户资金 净流入6.24亿元。能源金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月16日能源金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.08%，博迁新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3824.81，下跌1.11%。深证成指报收于12914.67，下跌1.51%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

中原证券认为，周一，上证指数早盘探底回升，临近午盘有所回落，午后震荡走低；深证成指、创业板 指、科创50指数全天震荡走低。盘中保险、证券、食品饮料以及航天航空等行业表现较好；船舶制造、 能源金属、半导体以及消费电子等行业表现较弱。上周A股市场在国内外诸多事件相继落地后呈现显著 分化与震荡格局。中长期支撑本轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转变。预计上证指数围绕4000点附近蓄势整 固的可能性较大，周期与科技有望轮番表现。建议密切关注宏观经济数据、海外流动性变化以及政策动 向。 东莞证券认为，周一，上证指数冲高回落，创业板指、深成指低开低走，市场赚钱效应一般。不过随着 美联储12月降息落地，叠加人民币汇率偏强运行，有利于外资增配中国资产。内部方面，监管政策引导 及保险资金年初"开门红"预期，强化了险资入市动能。历史经验显示，跨年行情启动前市场多有调整， 但随着新增利好累积，调整或近尾声，预计A股市场短期将呈现震荡盘升格局。 财信证券认为，周一，A股大盘缩量震荡，科技线普遍调整。总体来看，在科技线普遍承压的背景下， 资金风险偏好有所下降，市场交投活跃度低迷，成交额较前一交易日缩量超3000亿元，因此在量能不足 的情况下，大 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3867.92 points, down 0.55%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13112.09 points, down 1.10% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17734 billion [1] - The insurance, commercial retail, food and beverage, chemical fiber, and precious metals sectors showed gains, while shipbuilding, energy metals, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and consumer electronics sectors faced declines [1] Group 2 - The consumer sector saw a surge due to a favorable policy announcement from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the financial regulatory authority aimed at boosting consumption [1] - The aerospace sector experienced a pullback, with stocks like Aerospace Development and Aerospace Power nearing their daily limit down, while Aerospace Electromechanical stabilized the situation [1] - There was a notable loss effect in previously strong sectors such as chips, communications, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to positively impact the prices of precious and base metals, leading to a favorable liquidity environment in the market [2]. Precious Metals - The confirmation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has catalyzed a steady increase in precious metal prices, with London spot silver prices surpassing $60 per ounce [2]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a loose liquidity environment leading up to Christmas, which is expected to support continued strength in precious metal prices [2]. Copper - Macro disturbances have increased, leading to fluctuations in copper prices. Although prices reached new highs following the Fed's actions, they faced downward pressure due to renewed concerns over AI and hawkish comments from some Fed officials [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PCE, along with Japan's monetary policy meeting, are expected to heighten macroeconomic impacts, resulting in a primarily volatile copper price outlook [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are showing a strong upward trend due to macroeconomic support from the Fed's rate cut, despite ongoing pressure from excess supply of alumina [2]. - The aluminum processing operating rate has declined to 61.8%, influenced by high prices and environmental production restrictions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with a slight increase in production and a significant reduction in inventory by 2,133 tons, although December's new energy vehicle sales data is expected to show weakness [3]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand remains cautious [3]. - Rare earth prices have decreased, particularly for medium and heavy rare earths, while tin supply faces uncertainties from geopolitical disturbances [3].

Market Overview - On December 15, the A-share market experienced a slight consolidation after reaching resistance, with the Shanghai Composite Index encountering resistance around 3896 points[2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3867.92 points, down 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.10% to 13112.09 points[7][8] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,945 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3][14] Sector Performance - Strong performers included insurance, securities, food and beverage, and aerospace industries, while shipbuilding, energy metals, semiconductors, and consumer electronics lagged[3][7] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable gains in insurance, commercial retail, and food and beverage sectors[7][9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 15.97 times and 49.26 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][14] Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference set a tone of "more proactive" economic policies for the upcoming year, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to fluctuating expectations for future easing[3][14] - The domestic economy is in a state of moderate recovery, but the foundation still needs strengthening, supporting the current upward trend in A-shares[3][14] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy directions[3][14] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in aerospace, food and beverage, insurance, and securities sectors[3][14]

从资金流向上来看，当日能源金属板块主力资金净流出15.53亿元，游资资金净流入1.38亿元，散户资金 净流入14.15亿元。能源金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月15日能源金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.38%，华友钴业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3867.92，下跌0.55%。深证成指报收于13112.09，下跌1.1%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： ...