以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 本文来自微信公众号： 旅界 ，作者：theodore熙少，题图来自：虎嗅（张一然拍摄） 01 老赵最近和我说，想回国了。 他在迪拜做了17年生意，办公室就在DIFC，前段时间，拦截无人机的碎片砸中了金融中心一栋楼， 周边建筑也毫无征兆地猛烈摇晃了一下。 老赵心有余悸地说，那几分钟里，他脑子里一片空白，直到被刺耳警报声唤醒，才发现自己手心全是 细汗。 我让他发几张现场照片过来看看。 他说兄弟，别害我，这段时间阿联酋查手机查得厉害，街上、机场警察随机抽查，只要看见拍导弹、 无人机拦截的视频照片，直接进局子，之前有在伊玛尔做房产销售的中国人，就因为开直播澄清迪拜 这边没那么严重，一样被抓。 那时候的迪拜刚从2008年金融危机里缓过来，街上到处是大兴土木的吊塔，但空气里已经有了重新 起飞的躁动劲，每天我接触的都是这座城市最金碧辉煌的一面。 也就是在那时候，我在迪拜国际城外的龙城市场认识了老赵。 老赵是山西人，比我大几岁，那时候也是个意气风发的小伙子，他当时在龙城做建材生意。 龙城，是迪拜华人的根据地，一座1.2公里长的龙形建 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 11.83 and a fair value of HKD 14.51 [9]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilient performance with total revenue of RMB 7692.64 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 587.30 billion, a slight increase of 0.9%. The annual dividend per share was RMB 0.585, with a payout ratio of 29.0%, up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [9]. - The financial sector emerged as the core growth driver, achieving revenue of RMB 2908.80 billion and net profit of RMB 558.15 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 6.2% and 6.0%, respectively. Key subsidiaries performed well, with CITIC Bank's total assets surpassing RMB 10.13 trillion and net profit reaching RMB 706.18 billion, a 2.98% increase [9]. - The industrial sector showed significant performance divergence, with revenue growth of only 1.1%. Notable contributions came from CITIC Metal's copper and niobium businesses, while CITIC Pacific Energy's green electricity generation increased by 94% [9]. - The company has consistently increased its technology investments, maintaining an investment intensity of over 3% for three consecutive years. It is enhancing its technology infrastructure and integrating AI into both financial and industrial sectors [9]. - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of RMB 589 billion for 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1.15%. The report maintains a reasonable valuation of 0.45x PB, translating to a fair value of HKD 14.51 per share [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7472 billion in 2024, RMB 7693 billion in 2025, RMB 8006 billion in 2026, RMB 8413 billion in 2027, and RMB 8792 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 9.75%, 2.95%, 7.15%, 5.07%, and 4.51% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 582 billion in 2024, RMB 587 billion in 2025, RMB 589 billion in 2026, RMB 599 billion in 2027, and RMB 606 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 1.06%, 0.91%, 1.15%, 1.74%, and 1.24% respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [6][3]. Core Views - The company achieved stable revenue growth in 2025, with operating income reaching 355.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 87.4 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [1][3]. - The bank's total assets grew by 9.3% year-on-year to 18.68 trillion yuan, with customer deposits and loans both increasing by 8.2% [1][3]. - Non-interest income showed strong growth, with net fee income rising by 16.1% to 29.4 billion yuan, driven by increases in investment banking, wealth management, and custody services [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the average net interest margin was 1.66%, down 21 basis points year-on-year, and net interest income decreased by 1.6% [2][3]. - The bank's asset quality showed slight pressure, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.46%, and the non-performing loan ratio at year-end was 0.95%, up 0.05 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3][3]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratio improved, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 10.53%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points from the start of the year [1][3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2026-2027 is adjusted to a net profit of 89.4 billion yuan and 91.7 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected diluted EPS of 0.69 yuan and 0.70 yuan [3][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.4x for 2026 and a PB ratio of 0.57x [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qingdao Bank (stock code: 002948) [1] Core Views - Qingdao Bank's Q4 performance showed significant growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 18.21% and 47.79% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a substantial rise in non-interest income [3] - The bank's total revenue for 2025 reached 145.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.88 billion yuan, up 21.66% [3] - The bank's net interest income grew by 12.11% year-on-year, supported by optimized funding costs, with a net interest margin of 1.66% [3] - The bank's asset quality improved, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.97%, down 17 basis points year-on-year, and a provision coverage ratio of 292.30%, up 50.98 percentage points [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on structural adjustments, enhancing customer base, and improving operational capabilities, aiming to become a leading regional bank [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, Qingdao Bank's operating revenue was 145.73 billion yuan, with a net profit of 51.88 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 7.97% and 21.66%, respectively [3] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 12.68%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The bank's loan balance increased by 16.53% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 22.49% [3] - The bank's deposit balance rose by 16.41% year-on-year, with corporate and personal deposits increasing by 18.08% and 14.76%, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the bank's comprehensive operational capabilities are improving, with a focus on structural adjustments and risk management [3] - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2026-2028 is estimated at 7.83 yuan, 8.83 yuan, and 10.02 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 0.65X, 0.58X, and 0.51X [3]

华泰研究 年报点评 证券研究报告 邮储银行 (601658 CH/1658 HK) 港股通 储蓄代理费率再度优化 2026 年 3 月 28 日│中国内地/中国香港 国有大型银行 邮储银行 25 年归母净利润、营业收入、PPOP 分别同比+1.07%、+1.99%、 +8.00%，增速较 1-9 月分别+0.09pct、+0.18pct、-0.49pct。25 年拟每股派 息 0.2183 元，年度现金分红比例为 30%，股息率 4.31%（2026/3/27）。 预计公司"中收跃升三年计划"、"邮政储蓄代理费下调"等边际变化持续 显效，延续利润韧性，维持 A/H 股增持/买入评级。 对公驱动增长，息差边际下行 25 年末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+9.3%、+8.2%、+8.2%，较 2025 年 9 月末分别变动-1.8pct、-1.7pct、+0.1pct。25 年零售/对公/票据增量占 比分别为+10%/+85%/+5%，新增贷款主要由对公贷款驱动，零售需求偏弱、 风控趋严。25 年公司净利息收入同比-1.6%，增速较 1-9 月+0.5pct。25 年 净息差 1.66%，较 25Q3 下降 2b ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) [1] Core Insights - ICBC's performance shows steady improvement with a revenue of 838.27 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 368.56 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarters [4] - The net interest margin (NIM) stabilized at 1.28%, with a year-on-year decrease of 14 basis points, while the interest income showed a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, which is an improvement from earlier quarters [4] - Non-interest income increased by 10.17% year-on-year, with a notable growth in intermediary business income, driven by strong performance in wealth management and investment services [4] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.31%, a slight decrease from the previous year, although retail loan quality showed some deterioration [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, ICBC achieved a total revenue of 838.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 368.56 billion yuan, and a return on equity (ROE) of 9.45% [4] - The bank's loan balance increased by 7.52% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 7.78%, particularly in key sectors such as manufacturing and technology [4] - The bank's wealth management assets under management (AUM) surpassed 25 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.08% [4] Future Projections - The report forecasts that ICBC's revenue will reach 862.75 billion yuan in 2026, with a projected net profit of 376.51 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 2.16% [40] - The bank's book value per share (BVPS) is expected to increase to 11.58 yuan by 2026, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.64 [40] - The NIM is projected to gradually decline to 1.21% by 2026, reflecting ongoing market conditions [41]

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for A-share market timing, such as the "Volume Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart Algorithm Model," and "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" [1][11][64] - The "Volume Model" is neutral in the short term, while the "Feature Institutional Model" is also neutral. The "Feature Volume Model" indicates bearish signals. The "Smart Algorithm Model" for CSI 300 and CSI 500 shows bearish signals [11][64] - For mid-term A-share market timing, the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model," "Up-Down Return Difference Model," and "Calendar Effect Model" are neutral [12][65] - The long-term "Momentum Model" is neutral [13][66] - The "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" indicate bearish signals for A-shares [14][67] - For Hong Kong stocks, the "Turnover-to-Volatility Model" shows bearish signals, while the "Up-Down Return Difference Model" and "Up-Down Return Similarity Model" are neutral [15][68] - Backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly return of 3.17%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.26%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return is 23.82%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.13% [43][47] - Backtesting results for the "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" show a weekly return of 1.07%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return is 17.9%, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.21% [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Construction Bank (601939.SH) with a current price of 9.42 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The bank achieved a revenue of 761 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338.9 billion CNY, also reflecting a growth of 1% [4]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) stands at 10.04%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - Revenue and profit growth have accelerated, with net interest income and non-interest income growth rates of -2.9% and 19.9%, respectively, indicating a strong performance in non-interest income [5]. - The bank's credit assets and loans grew by 12% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a steady increase in lending to key sectors [6]. - Deposit growth remains stable, with interest-bearing liabilities and deposits increasing by 13.3% and 7.6% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is reported at 1.34%, showing a gradual narrowing trend [8]. - Non-interest income reached 188.3 billion CNY, growing by 20% year-on-year, contributing to 25% of total revenue [10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.31%, indicating improved asset quality [11]. - The capital adequacy ratio has strengthened, with the core tier 1 capital ratio at 14.63% [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the bank's total revenue was 761 billion CNY, with a net profit of 338.9 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 1%, respectively [4][5]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio was 28.3%, and credit impairment losses as a percentage of revenue were 17.5% [5]. Credit and Asset Quality - The bank's credit assets and loans grew by 12% and 7.5% year-on-year, with significant lending to strategic sectors such as technology and green finance [6]. - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.31%, with a coverage ratio of 233% [11][24]. Capital Adequacy - The core tier 1 capital ratio is reported at 14.63%, indicating a solid capital position [11][27]. - The bank issued 40 billion CNY in perpetual bonds to support its capital adequacy [11]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.32, 1.35, and 1.36 CNY for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.13, 7.00, and 6.90 [12][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Current inflation expectations are rising, and market risk appetite remains low. The operation should be defensive. The double - low strategy is back in the high - win - rate range. Priority should be given to screening undervalued targets by the ZL model, and the core should be balanced convertible bonds with fully compressed valuations and both offensive and defensive capabilities [1]. - The convertible bond market has rebounded slightly, and balanced convertible bonds are both offensive and defensive. Although the convertible bond market has marginally recovered, the overall safety margin is still limited. Attention should be paid to valuation constraints and drawdown risks. Balanced convertible bonds have prominent allocation value [2][11]. - The convertible bond market sentiment has generally warmed up recently. It is recommended to focus on targets with low valuations. Investors should maintain a stable and balanced allocation strategy, avoid crowded varieties with excessive ZL deviation and large short - term cumulative increases, and moderately focus on repair targets with fundamental support and reasonable low - valuation ranges [3][15]. - As the market valuation continues to compress, the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is gradually emerging. The double - low strategy focusing on low price and low premium is more effective, and attention can be paid to balanced convertible bonds [4][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - In the past week (2026/03/23 - 2026/03/27), the sentiment of the convertible bond market marginally warmed up, and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index recorded a slight increase. The large - cap index of convertible bonds fell by 0.14%, while the mid - cap and small - cap indexes rose by 1.8%. The high - price index (2.26%) performed better than the mid - price index (1.45%) and the low - price index (0.45%) [2][11]. - The A - share market is weakly affected by external uncertainties. The US - Iran conflict is intensifying, and the rising oil price exacerbates the global stagflation expectation, suppressing the valuation of equity assets. The convertible bond market has limited safety margins, and the high - volatility attribute of convertible bonds still exists. Balanced convertible bonds have prominent allocation value [2][11]. - According to the back - test results of the Zheshang Fixed - income Quantitative Convertible Bond Model, as of 2026/03/27, the market has fully recovered, and most style factors have risen. There are signs of a slight high - low switch within the momentum factor. The market shows significant characteristics of sentiment warming and general rise and repair. It is recommended to focus on undervalued targets [3][15]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, since September, one month, two months, half - year, and one - year. For example, the Wande Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 1.72% in the past week, - 3.16% in the past two weeks, and 9.73% since September [22]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities No specific information about individual convertible bonds is provided in this part other than the list of the top ten and bottom ten gainers and losers in the past week [23][25]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation The report shows the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds through relevant charts, including the four - week moving average of the conversion premium rate [27][33]. 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Price The report presents the price median and the proportion of high - price bonds through relevant charts [35][37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have shown stable growth, with operating income reaching 355.7 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 87.4 billion yuan, growing by 1.1% year-on-year [1][3] - Non-interest income has performed well, with net fee income increasing by 16.1% to 29.4 billion yuan, driven by growth in investment banking, wealth management, and custody services [2][3] - The asset quality has shown slight pressure, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.46%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total assets of 18.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with customer deposits and loans both increasing by 8.2% [1] - The average net interest margin for 2025 was 1.66%, down by 21 basis points year-on-year, with interest income declining by 1.6% [2] - The company completed capital replenishment, with a core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 10.53%, up by 0.97 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1][3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2026-2027 projects net profit attributable to shareholders at 89.4 billion yuan and 91.7 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% and 2.5% [3][7] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.69 yuan for 2026 and 0.70 yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.4x and 7.2x [3][7]