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终端需求改善不足 PS价格创出新低
Group 1 - The overall demand for PS terminals in 2025 is expected to improve insufficiently due to multiple factors such as tariff policies, subsidy policies, and consumer willingness and ability being hindered, leading to a gradual negative feedback to various links in the industry chain [1] - The PS industry is experiencing a continuous decline in costs, resulting in a downward pressure on prices, with PS prices hitting new lows in 2025 [1][2] - As of early November 2025, the price of ordinary toluene in East China has dropped to 6,975 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decline of 28.09%, with the low-end price reaching a historical low of 6,850 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the domestic PS production capacity is expected to increase by 16.52% year-on-year, with a production increase of 5.74%, leading to a total domestic PS capacity of approximately 8.04 million tons by the end of the year [1][2] - From January to September 2025, China's PS export volume reached 241,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.44%, with total exports expected to exceed 300,000 tons by the end of the year [2] - The white goods industry, a major downstream consumer of PS, has shown effective demand for PS in the first half of 2025, but overall demand improvement is insufficient, leading to downward pressure on PS prices [3] Group 3 - The PS market in China is expected to show a trend of low-level rebound followed by oscillating declines in 2026, with average prices anticipated to drop compared to 2025 [4] - The international crude oil price is expected to continue to decline, impacting the prices of bulk chemical products and upstream materials, which may lead to a weakening of cost support for PS [4] - The supply side of PS is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 due to the concentrated release of new production capacity, while terminal demand improvement is expected to be moderate [4]
国贸期货塑料数据周报-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile as there is no obvious driving force. The supply is neutral, demand is mixed, inventory is bearish, basis is neutral, profit and valuation are bearish, and macro - policy is also bearish [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving force. The supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is bearish, basis is neutral, profit is bullish, valuation is bearish, and macro - policy is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 67.37 tons, up 1.98% from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 83.14%, up 0.55 percentage points. Some plants were under maintenance, but restarted during the week, leading to a rise in capacity utilization [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall start - up rate of agricultural film increased by 2.75%, and the start - up rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 102.22 tons, down 10.07% year - on - year but up 7.58% month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.92 tons, up 7.96% from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory was 50.01 tons, down 1.86% from the previous period and 4.14% lower year - on - year. The import cargo warehouse inventory decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The main reasons were the end of bearish sentiment fermentation, producers' price - holding sales, and new plant production increases [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 379, with the futures price at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: Coal and ethane production costs increased, while oil, ethylene, and methanol production costs decreased. The import profit of LLDPE increased, while that of HDPE decreased, and LDPE increased [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 82.22 tons, up 3.23% from last week and 23.45% from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.63%, up 1.85%, and Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 77.47%, up 1.70% [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of polyethylene decreased by 0.4%. The start - up rates of some products such as PE packaging film, PE hollow, PE injection, and PE drawing decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 62 tons, up 3.35% from the previous period. The port sample inventory increased by 3.56%, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 4.95%. The reasons included the restart of maintenance plants, limited demand boost, and high shipping costs [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 44, with the futures price close to the spot price [3]. - **Profit**: The profits of methanol - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while those of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price increased by 0.15%, PE futures price increased by 0.75%, PP spot price decreased by 2.72%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 1.97% [5]. - **Production**: PP production decreased by 0.55%, PE production increased by 2.67%, and HDPE production increased by 3.56% [5]. - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.07%, PE start - up rate increased by 2.13%, and the start - up rates of some downstream products such as agricultural film and PP pipes changed slightly [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 2.31%, PE social inventory decreased by 1.17%, and HDPE social inventory decreased by 1.37% [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit decreased by 8.81%, and PE weighted profit increased by 25.56% [5].
PP:短期不追空,中期趋势仍有压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 03:55
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. However, the trend strength of PP is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the short - term advice of not chasing short positions and medium - term trend still under pressure [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term market for PP does not require chasing short positions, but the medium - term trend still faces significant pressure. The supply side remains high, which is a major factor suppressing the market. Although recent trading volume has improved slightly due to low - price - driven short - term restocking, the peak demand period within the year has passed. In the long - run, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. However, the low profit of PP also restricts the supply side and limits the potential for future price declines [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6474, with a daily increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 308,865, and the open interest decreased by 6371. The 01 - contract basis was - 144 (compared to - 160 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 101 (compared to - 97 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price was in the range of 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was 6430 - 6550 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - The domestic PP market showed a slightly positive trend, with some prices rising by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The positive oscillation of PP futures boosted the trading atmosphere in the spot market. Some producers raised their factory prices, strengthening the cost support for the goods, and traders slightly increased their quotes accordingly. However, downstream factories remained cautious in raw material procurement, with some entering the market to make appropriate low - price purchases [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - The high supply on the supply side is still the main factor suppressing the market. The recent improvement in trading volume is mainly due to short - term restocking at low prices. The peak demand period within the year has passed, and the key to the future market lies in future demand factors. In the long - term, cost pressure, high supply, and weak downstream demand with low profits will be the dominant factors in the first half of 2026. The low profit of PP also exerts pressure on the supply side and limits the potential for future price declines [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the interval [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251117
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 02:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].
普利特跌2.04%,成交额9480.53万元,主力资金净流出1471.01万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 02:54
Core Viewpoint - The stock of Prit (Shanghai Prit Composite Materials Co., Ltd.) has experienced fluctuations, with a current price of 13.95 CNY per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 47.14% and a recent decline in trading volume [1][2]. Company Overview - Shanghai Prit Composite Materials Co., Ltd. was established on October 28, 1999, and listed on December 18, 2009. The company specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of polymer new materials and their composites [1]. - The main revenue composition includes: general modified materials (44.47%), engineering modified materials (17.05%), lithium iron phosphate lithium-ion batteries (15.42%), and others [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Prit achieved an operating income of 6.787 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million CNY, marking a significant increase of 55.42% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Prit has distributed a total of 680 million CNY in dividends, with 183 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of October 10, 2025, Prit had 28,900 shareholders, with an average of 26,831 circulating shares per person, showing a slight decrease [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 18.5062 million shares, and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, holding 6.105 million shares, both of which have seen a reduction in their holdings [3]. Market Activity - On November 17, Prit's stock price fell by 2.04%, with a trading volume of approximately 94.81 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.86%. The total market capitalization stands at 15.517 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has seen a recent net outflow of 14.71 million CNY in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1].
聚丙烯:短期不追空,中期趋势仍有压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-16 12:55
聚丙烯:短期不追空,中期趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011243 日期:2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 本周PP观点:短期不追空,中期趋势仍有压力 供应 周产量变化分析:本周国内聚丙烯产量82.22万吨,相较上周的79.65万吨增加2.57万吨,涨幅3.23%;相较去年同期的66.6万吨增加15.62万 吨,涨幅23.45%。周内广西石化新装置投产,加之部分检修装置恢复开工,聚丙烯损失量数据高位回落,产量数据如期上涨。 周产能利用率变化分析:本期聚丙烯平均产能利用率79.63%,环比上升1.85%;中石化产能利用率77.47%,环比上升1.70%。周内洛阳石化 二线14万吨/年、海南乙烯STPP线30万吨/年等装置重启,使得中石化产能利用率上升。东华能源(张家港)、广西石化二线等装置重启, 使得聚丙烯平均产能利用率上升。 下周来看,东莞巨正源120万吨/年装置计划外停车,云天化、广东石化二线等存检修计划,镇海炼化三线计划重启,聚丙烯计划内检修损 失量预 ...
【图】2025年6月安徽省初级形态的塑料产量数据
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-11-16 07:41
Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Anhui Province's industrial enterprises produced 148.9 thousand tons of primary plastic, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 2.4 percentage points higher than 2024 but 12.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In June 2025, the production of primary plastic in Anhui reached 27.4 thousand tons, marking a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 15.6 percentage points higher than June 2024, but 6.0 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Data - The cumulative production of primary plastic in Anhui for the first half of 2025 was 148.9 thousand tons, accounting for 2.1% of the national total of 7012.35 thousand tons [1] - In June 2025, the production was 27.4 thousand tons, representing 2.3% of the national total of 1203.21 thousand tons for that month [2] Year-on-Year Comparison - The production in the first half of 2025 decreased by 2.3% compared to the same period in 2024, while the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The June 2025 production increased by 6.1% compared to June 2024, with a growth rate 15.6 percentage points higher than the same month in 2024 [2] National Context - The growth rate of Anhui's primary plastic production in the first half of 2025 was 12.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The June 2025 growth rate was 6.0 percentage points lower than the national average for that month [2]
每周股票复盘:中石化资本减持海正生材(688203)1%股份
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 19:55
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The stock of Haizheng Biomaterials (688203) has shown a slight increase, with a closing price of 13.46 yuan as of November 14, 2025, reflecting a 1.51% rise from the previous week [1]. Stock Performance - The highest price during the week was 13.93 yuan on November 13, while the lowest was 13.19 yuan on November 12 [1]. - The current total market capitalization of Haizheng Biomaterials is 2.728 billion yuan, ranking 64th out of 71 in the plastics sector and 4818th out of 5165 in the A-share market [1]. Shareholder Changes - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation Capital Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings by 1% (2,026,700 shares) between October 28 and November 11, 2025, due to funding needs [1][3]. - The share price during the reduction ranged from 12.84 to 13.49 yuan per share, with a total reduction amounting to approximately 26.73 million yuan [1][3]. - After the reduction, China Petroleum Capital holds 10,788,194 shares, representing 5.32% of the total share capital [1][3].
LLDPE:部分供应扰动,关注进口压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 13:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The LLDPE market has partial supply disturbances, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE disk is under downward pressure, the downstream has strong rigid demand support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened after last week's decline, and the upstream mainly tries to hold prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. In the short - term, the contradiction is not significant, but in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6818, with a daily increase of 0.44%, the trading volume was 374,936, and the position decreased by 5,317. The 01 - contract basis was - 28, the same as the previous day; the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 75, an increase of 1 compared to the previous day. - Spot prices: The prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,790 yuan/ton, 6,900 yuan/ton, and 7,050 yuan/ton respectively. The North China price increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the East and South China prices remained unchanged [1] Spot News - The futures disk was under pressure, the North China LL basis gradually repaired to around par, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. The linear prices in North China, East China, and South China had partial fluctuations of 10 - 30 yuan/ton, 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and 50 - 70 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of the domestic LLDPE market was 6,760 - 7,450 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened low and fluctuated upward, but the market trading atmosphere was not significantly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market. In the downward market, downstream players had a bearish attitude and reduced their willingness to purchase raw materials, resulting in difficulty in increasing overall trading volume [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE disk is under downward pressure. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but after last week's decline, the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened. The upstream mainly tries to hold prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, but the unplanned maintenance volume in November has increased compared to expectations, and the short - term contradiction is not significant. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]
塑料日报:震荡上行-20251114
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 12:38
报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]