1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. Although the sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted, the upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On December 24, the number of plastic maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week ending December 19. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. With an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. The downstream construction has slowed down, demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6284 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6418 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6408 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position decreased by 41,207 lots to 540,352 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7740 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical destocking has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 725 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 745 US dollars/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2605 contract rose 1.55% to close at 4,781 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The national average cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was repaired. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased, and the social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period of history. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. In December, a small number of unit commissioning was postponed, the high - start state of the industry was generally maintained, and the supply pressure was high. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the off - season, and the start - up rate of hard products such as pipes and profiles may maintain a seasonal downward trend. The global PVC supply is sufficient, the overseas market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The short - term is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, V2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the pressure around 4,860 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,781 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the trading volume was 1,135,087 lots, down 739,359 lots; the open interest was 973,277 lots, up 8,434 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 939,477 lots, down 17,700 lots; the short position was 1,010,119 lots, down 12,369 lots; the net long position was - 70,642 lots, down 5,331 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,445.77 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,467.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,615 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,425 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, down 1.07%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.74%, down 1.92%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, down 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 51.06 tons, down 0.68 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 tons, down 0.42 tons, and in the South China region was 4.23 tons, down 0.26 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 53,456.7 million square meters, up 4,395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 656,066.2 million square meters, up 3,127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 21.59%, up 3.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.67%, up 2.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.64%, up 1.42%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.63%, up 1.41% [2] Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% to 45.39%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 37.6%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% to 1.0566 million tons compared with last week [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ABS market is experiencing a significant price decline due to structural supply-demand imbalances, with expectations for further price drops in the near term [1][5]. Supply Pressure - The ABS industry is entering a concentrated expansion phase in 2025, with new capacities from companies like Yulong Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical expected to push annual production close to 7 million tons, a 27% increase from the previous year [2]. - High operating rates around 70% and increased inventory levels due to sluggish sales are contributing to a relaxed supply environment, which is likely to intensify as new capacities come online [2]. - Manufacturers may increase sales efforts to reduce inventory levels by year-end, potentially exerting additional downward pressure on market prices [2]. Cost Support Insufficiency - The three core raw materials for ABS—styrene, acrylonitrile, and butadiene—are facing a "strong supply, weak demand" situation, leading to low prices that weaken cost support for ABS [3]. - Styrene prices hit a five-year low of 6,300 yuan in November, while acrylonitrile and butadiene also experienced price declines due to oversupply [3]. - The collective drop in raw material prices has not established a solid cost floor for ABS, allowing for further price declines, with current production losses expanding to around 300 yuan [3]. Weak Demand Growth - Demand for ABS is showing divergence, particularly in the home appliance sector, where production growth is lagging behind raw material capacity expansion [4]. - Key indicators in the real estate sector have significantly declined, constraining growth in the home appliance market, despite government policies aimed at boosting sales [4]. - While exports of ABS have increased by 71.58% year-on-year, the overall supply-demand mismatch remains unaddressed due to the scale of domestic production [4]. Structural Imbalance - The stark contrast between moderate demand growth and substantial supply expansion is a core structural issue that is expected to hinder strong upward support for the ABS market in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 23, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices such as Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased to 42.45%, and the overall is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years The plastics supply has increased due to new capacity, while the downstream demand is weak The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices restarted, increasing the plastics operating rate to 86.5%, and the operating rate is at a neutral level As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years Due to oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased slightly The agricultural film is out of the peak season, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline The downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, so it is expected that the plastics will fluctuate weakly and the L - PP spread will decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, closing at 6296 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.06% The trading volume decreased by 24483 lots to 581559 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot prices in the market declined, with a range of - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6420 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7750 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7900 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 23, the restart of Tianjin Petrochemical's LLDPE and other maintenance devices increased the plastics operating rate to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year Petrochemical de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61/barrel, and the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The V2605 contract rose 3.02% to close at 4,738 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased, with the profile开工率 in a downward trend. Social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level compared to the same period in history. The costs of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased, and profits improved. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and there are no new planned shutdown units, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. With a small number of unit commissioning delays in December, the industry's high - operation state generally continues, resulting in high supply pressure. The end - user real estate and infrastructure sectors are in the low - season, and the开工率 of hard products such as pipes and profiles may continue the seasonal downward trend. Global PVC supply is sufficient, and overseas market competition is fierce, so export support is limited. The weak current supply - demand situation of PVC competes with the "anti - involution" support on the expected side, and it is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. Technically, the V2605 contract should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the resistance around 4,800 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 147 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 1,874,446 lots, a week - on - week increase of 728,966 lots; the open interest was 964,843 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5,287 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 957,177 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 27,840 lots; the short position was 1,022,488 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 23,664 lots; the net long position was - 65,311 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,176 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,367.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2,656.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16.67 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2,449 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 77.74 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 652,939.03 million square meters, an increase of 4,359.03 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 389.8297 billion yuan, an increase of 31.191 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%. From December 13th to 19th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% week - on - week to 45.39%, among which the operating rate of pipes remained stable at 37.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 3.7% week - on - week to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons [3].

从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流入1.89亿元，游资资金净流出3.87亿元，散户资金净流 入1.98亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月23日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨0.43%，神剑股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-23 供强需弱格局延续，拖累价格下行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6240元/吨（-80），PP主力合约收盘价为6119元/吨（-94），LL华北现货为6250 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6150元/吨（-60），LL华北基差为10元/吨（-20），LL 华东基差为160元/吨（+80）， PP华东基差为31元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为61.6元/吨（-57.7），PP油制生产利润为-368.4元/吨（-57.7），PDH制PP生产利润 为-629.8元/吨（+48.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-131.8元/吨（-8.2），PP进口利润为-215.8元/吨（+1.8），PP出口利润为-13.4美元/吨（-0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority of gains on December 22, with the shipping index (European line) leading the rise with an increase of over 8% [1][2] - Precious metals such as palladium and platinum reached their daily limit with increases of 7.00% and 6.99% respectively, while silver rose over 6% [1][3] - The shipping index's strong performance was supported by market expectations for the upcoming peak season, despite uncertainties regarding shipping routes in the Red Sea and Suez Canal [2][3] Group 2 - The silver, platinum, and palladium markets have shown remarkable performance, with silver prices hitting historical highs and the three metals collectively surging on December 22 [3] - Supply constraints and macroeconomic easing policies are significant factors supporting the continued strength of precious metals [3] - The polyester chain commodities also experienced significant gains, with PTA rising over 4.5% and other related products increasing by more than 3% [4] Group 3 - In contrast, the plastic market faced its fifth consecutive day of decline, driven by a supply-demand imbalance and decreasing downstream operating rates [5] - The main contract for polysilicon also saw a drop of over 2%, attributed to weak terminal demand and high inventory levels [5]

Group 1 - The plastic sector increased by 2.93% compared to the previous trading day, with Shenjian Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3917.36, up 0.69%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13332.73, up 1.47% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant gains, with Shenjian Co. rising by 10.04% and closing at 66.8, and other notable performers including Xingye Co. and Dongcai Technology [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector experienced a net inflow of 1.079 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 303 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the plastic sector had varying performances, with some stocks like Ruihua Tai and Bofei Electric experiencing declines of over 8% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polypropylene market in China continues to experience a downward trend in prices due to supply and demand pressures, with prices dropping to 6150 RMB/ton as of December 19, a decrease of 210 RMB/ton or 3.3% from the beginning of the month [2][10]. Supply Side Analysis - There is no new production capacity added in December, but the market shows a "sufficient total supply with localized tightness" characteristic. Some production units are unstable, and logistics disruptions in the northwest have led to structural tightness in certain areas. However, overall operating rates of existing facilities remain high, indicating a stable supply from major producers [3][11]. - The demand side is exacerbating the weak market atmosphere. Although there is stable rigid demand from downstream, a "fear of falling prices" sentiment dominates trading, leading to cautious purchasing strategies among intermediaries and downstream factories [3][11]. Price Dynamics - The combination of weak oil prices, insufficient cost support, and a lack of favorable macroeconomic policies has resulted in multiple negative factors affecting the polypropylene market. As a result, there is a lack of upward momentum for prices, which are expected to continue seeking a bottom in a weak range [3][11]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The core driving logic for the domestic polypropylene market in 2026 is expected to remain anchored in supply and demand fundamentals, with a likely continuation of a "supply increase exceeding demand increase" scenario, putting overall market operations under pressure [5][14]. - The first half of 2026 may provide a critical window for inventory digestion due to a slowdown in new production capacity releases, with most of the planned 5.65 million tons of new capacity expected to be released in the second half of the year [6][14]. Inventory Management and Market Strategy - In the short term, the focus should be on inventory transfer progress and the financial turnover pressure within the industry chain, adopting a prudent inventory management strategy. In the medium to long term, attention should be directed towards the demand recovery rhythm in March 2026 and the new production capacity release in the second half of the year [7][15]. - The polypropylene market is expected to remain in a phase of weak low levels, with a focus on waiting for clear recovery signals from the spring peak season before making significant moves [7][15].