Core Viewpoint - The event in Zhangjiagang aims to enhance collaboration between universities and enterprises, fostering a new blueprint for talent integration and industrial development [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Government-Enterprise Alliance Cooperation Conference gathered 137 universities and nearly 200 local enterprises to discuss talent integration [1]. - The event is part of a six-year initiative to strengthen partnerships with over 200 universities, attracting more than 100,000 graduates to the city [4]. Group 2: Talent Development Initiatives - Zhangjiagang is committed to building a "talent-friendly" and "employment-friendly" city, implementing a "1+1+N" talent policy system and launching a talent fund with a total scale of 1.5 billion yuan [3][4]. - The city has introduced three major talent plans focusing on higher education graduates, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor industries [3]. Group 3: Success Stories - The city has seen a significant increase in talent, with a total of over 460,000 individuals, including 45,000 high-level talents and 132,800 skilled workers [4]. - A success story highlighted includes a graduate who transitioned from research to production, winning national accolades and advancing to a mid-level management position [4]. Group 4: Regional Collaboration - The event also featured a cross-regional cooperation agreement between employment service centers from Yunnan, Hubei, and Henan provinces and Zhangjiagang's human resources department to expand talent recruitment efforts [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils continues to weaken. Although steel mill maintenance has led to a decline in hot - rolled coil production (a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons), it remains at a high level this year. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve as steel mills mainly focus on protecting plate production. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons week - on - week. The high - frequency transactions have rebounded at a low level due to the high - level cold - rolled production in downstream industries, but industrial contradictions are still accumulating. The relative positive factor is the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, which eases overseas risks. Overall, the weak supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, with supply slightly contracting at a high level but pressure remaining, demand weakly stable, the fundamentals not improving, and inventory continuously accumulating. With the game between long and short factors, it is expected that the price of hot - rolled coils will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand performance [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly production of hot - rolled coils is 3,276,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons, and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last month. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a decrease of 0.11 percentage points compared with the same period last month [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3,198,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,400 tons and a decrease of 70,500 tons compared with last month. The weekly production of cold - rolled coils is 884,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3,454,100 tons, a decrease of 684,200 tons. The in - plant inventory is 765,300 tons, a decrease of 127,100 tons, and the social inventory is 2,688,800 tons, a decrease of 557,100 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of industrial bond - issuing entities was under pressure in 2024, with differentiated industry performance. The total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased. In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [2][3] - The economic fundamentals are expected to continue the characteristics of domestic demand support, external demand pressure, and policy escort this year. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the fundamentals of entities under the influence of pro - growth policies. [2][13] - For the real estate industry, it is still in the bottom - building stage. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. [4] - For the coal industry, there is downward pressure on the industry's prosperity. Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on, and institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA. [5] - For the steel industry, the problem of over - supply is still serious. Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities, and 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. How Did the Annual Reports and Q1 Reports of Each Industry Perform? 3.1.1. Overall Situation Analysis: The Overall Profitability Declined - In 2024, the total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased from 18% in 2023 to 21% in 2024. [13][14] - In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased by 2% year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [15] 3.1.2. Industry Performance: A Minority of Industries Had Positive Revenue and Net Profit Growth, and Most Industries Had Positive Growth in Operating Net Cash Flow - In 2024, about one - third of industries had positive revenue growth, and about 40% of industries had positive net profit growth. Nearly half of the industries had an increase in asset - liability ratio, and about 60% of industries had positive growth in operating net cash flow. [3] - Industries with revenue growth of over 5% in 2024 included non - ferrous metals, electronics, etc.; industries with a decline of over 5% included coal, steel, etc. [20] 3.1.3. Situations of Continuously Loss - making and Turnaround Entities - There were 79 bond - issuing industrial entities with net profit losses for 3 consecutive years or more, mainly distributed in transportation, real estate, etc. [36] - There were 20 bond - issuing industrial entities that had net profit losses for 2 consecutive years or more and turned profitable in 2024, mainly in public utilities, social services, etc. [39] 3.2. Financial Analysis of Key Industries: Real Estate, Coal, and Steel 3.2.1. Real Estate Industry: The Industry Is Still in the Bottom - building Stage, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Investment Opportunities of Central and State - owned Enterprises within 1 - 2 Years - **Fundamentals**: Pro - real - estate policies have been actively implemented, and the effect of destocking policies is gradually emerging, but the industry's prosperity is still low. [41] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability is under continuous pressure, the operating net cash flow is stable, the gaps in investment and financing net cash flows are narrowing, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased slightly, and the short - term solvency has declined. [4][50][51] - **Investment Strategy**: Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. Some 1 - year central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and AA + have yields ranging from 2.2% to 2.7%. [4][61] 3.2.2. Coal Industry: There Is Downward Pressure on the Industry's Prosperity, and Attention Should Be Continuously Paid. Currently, Appropriate Investment in Lower - Grade Entities Can Be Made - **Fundamentals**: Since last year, there has been downward pressure on the coal industry's prosperity. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and coal prices have fluctuated downward. There may still be some downward pressure on coal prices this year. [5][63] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The overall profitability has declined, the operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment cash flow has widened, the gap in financing cash flow has narrowed, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased, and the short - term solvency has declined. [5][68][71] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on. Institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA, and medium - and high - grade entities can extend the duration to 3y. [5][77] 3.2.3. Steel Industry: The Problem of Over - Supply in the Industry Is Still Serious. Caution Should Be Exercised When Investing in Lower - Quality Entities - **Fundamentals**: Since 2024, the steel industry has been in the bottom - exploring stage. Although the pro - growth policies have slightly improved the industry's prosperity, the sustainability is weak. The problem of over - supply is still serious. [6] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability has been under continuous pressure, with a marginal improvement in Q1. The operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment net cash flow has widened, the financing net cash flow has turned positive, the median asset - liability ratio has increased, and the short - term solvency has slightly declined. [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities. 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.57%. With supply and demand both weakening, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%. The supply is increasing while the demand is weakly stable, and the price is expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term due to improved market sentiment, also focusing on demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.86%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken, but the price may oscillate strongly in the short term supported by the logic of narrowing the discount, focusing on the change in molten iron [4]. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - The global manufacturing PMI was 49.2% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The US manufacturing PMI continued to decline [6]. - In May, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly average working hours of excavators were 72.6 hours, and the monthly starting rate was 61% [7]. - On June 3, 2025, Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation into hot - rolled coils imported from China [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, along with the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts index [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 2,975 with a 0.57% increase, the hot - rolled coil at 3,092 with a 0.55% increase, and the iron ore at 707.5 with a 0.86% increase [13]. Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, 45 - port iron ore, etc.), steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [15][20][29]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output decreased by 7.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 19.65 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 9.20 tons, while the demand is weakly stable, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 6.01 tons. The price is expected to oscillate and stabilize, paying attention to demand [40]. - Iron ore: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term, focusing on the change in molten iron [41].

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the **bond market** outlook for June 2025, with insights into **monetary policy**, **credit bonds**, and specific sectors such as **real estate** and **coal** industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Outlook for June 2025**: The bond market is expected to continue the volatile trend observed since May, primarily due to uncertainties in tariff negotiations and variable fundamental data. The trading range for the 10-year government bond is anticipated to be between **1.6% and 1.7%** [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The People's Bank of China has shifted its monetary policy focus from preventing capital turnover to stabilizing growth, creating a relatively friendly monetary environment. The dual interest rate cuts in May were in line with expectations, but the positive effects were quickly absorbed by the market [3][8]. 3. **Seasonal Factors**: Historical data from 2019 to 2024 indicates that the 10-year government bond typically experiences limited volatility in June, with fluctuations generally within **10 basis points**. Seasonal factors and government bond issuance are expected to influence liquidity significantly [4][6]. 4. **Liquidity Concerns**: The liquidity situation in June is complicated by a **1.5 trillion yuan** net financing issuance and **4 trillion yuan** in maturing certificates of deposit, raising concerns about short-term volatility despite an overall favorable trend [7][8]. 5. **Credit Bonds**: The short-end credit spread has limited compression potential, while three-year varieties still have room for compression. Attention is drawn to **2A-rated** credit bonds for investment opportunities [6][12]. 6. **Real Estate Sector**: The real estate industry is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the impact of policy relaxations in core first-tier cities. Recommendations include investing in safe-zone state-owned enterprise real estate bonds and high-cost performance **2A/2A+** rated bonds [16][17]. 7. **Coal Industry**: The coal sector has seen a decline in demand since 2024, leading to price fluctuations. The overall profitability has decreased, and cash flow from operating activities has contracted [19][21]. 8. **Steel Industry**: The steel sector faces severe oversupply issues, with a slight recovery in demand due to export boosts. However, domestic demand remains weak, leading to continued pressure on prices and profitability [20][21]. Additional Important Content 1. **Investment Strategies**: The second half of 2025 may present a significant investment window, with potential new monetary policies expected to be announced in July. Investors are advised to prepare for this period despite a lackluster June [5][11]. 2. **Credit Strategy**: The credit market shows varying performance across different maturities and ratings, with a focus on optimizing investment portfolios based on these dynamics [12][14]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The convertible bond market has experienced a V-shaped recovery, indicating strong buying power despite the unclear upward trend in the equity market [22][24]. 4. **Risk Assessment**: The overall risk in the equity market is considered manageable, with liquidity remaining ample and policy expectations high, which supports the convertible bond market [23][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the bond market and related sectors.

Group 1: China Haicheng - China Haicheng participated in a conference organized by Guotai Junan, discussing the impact of the Spring Festival on Q1 revenue and profit, which experienced a temporary decline. However, new contracts signed increased by 5.80% year-on-year, indicating confidence in stable annual performance growth [1] - The overseas business is focused on the "Belt and Road" initiative, with significant growth in new orders for 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily from industries such as pulp and paper, food fermentation, environmental protection, and new energy materials [1] - New orders in the pulp and paper sector reached 3.199 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 86.96%, while Q1 2025 saw new orders of 840 million yuan, up 97.32% year-on-year [1] - The pharmaceutical sector's order growth is attributed to large-scale general contracting projects, and the company has launched a digital design and collaboration platform to enhance smart manufacturing and digital delivery [1] Group 2: Sangang Min Guang - Sangang Min Guang provided details on production capacity and output distribution across its bases, with an estimated crude steel output of approximately 6.27 million tons from the Sanming base and 2.57 million tons each from the Quanzhou and Luoyuan bases in 2024 [2] - The company is nearing completion of capacity replacement and ultra-low emission transformation projects, with a capital investment plan of 1.99 billion yuan for 2025 [2] - Due to net profit losses in 2023 and 2024, the company does not meet cash dividend conditions and will adhere to its profit distribution policy in the future [2] - There are no current plans for mergers or acquisitions, and the company is monitoring production limits to maximize efficiency across its three locations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak market trends of coke and coking coal futures continue, and there may still be new lows in the next two weeks. However, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a bottom - rebounding turning point can occur in about the next two weeks due to changes in tariff policies and the restoration of confidence in the steel market [11][12]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Performance on May 27**: The main contract 2509 of coke futures narrowed its decline after reaching a low, and the main contract 2509 of coking coal futures first declined and then rose, hitting new lows for September contracts since January 2017 and September 2016 respectively [7]. - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the coke 2509 contract continued to diverge, with the J - value rising, the K - value turning up, and the D - value falling, showing a potential golden cross. For the coking coal 2509 contract, the J - and K - values continued to rise, and the D - value continued to fall, approaching a golden cross. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2509 contract continued to slightly expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract began to narrow. On the same day, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke remained unchanged in major ports, and the aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some areas decreased [10]. - **Future Outlook for Coke**: In the past five weeks, the coke output of independent coking plants has hovered near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke output of steel mills has slightly declined since late April. Port coke inventories have significantly decreased, but the inventory reduction speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding downward pressure on coke prices. After two weeks of profit, the profit per ton of coke turned into a loss [11]. - **Future Outlook for Coking Coal**: From January to April, the year - on - year growth of coking coal imports turned negative, but the absolute import volume remained high, and the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants increased significantly, and the clean coal inventory rose again to a relatively high level. In the past five weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants decreased significantly, and port inventories returned to normal levels before early August last year, but steel mill inventories increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt inventory reduction strategies, coking coal prices are likely to fall [11]. - **News Impact**: The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal and issue the central budget investment plan for urban renewal in 2025 by the end of June. The rising US Treasury bond auction interest rate led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, reducing the risk appetite in the international financial market [11]. 3.2 Industry News - **Industrial Profits**: From January to April 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The mining industry's profit was 287.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 1.55493 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; and the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry's profit was 274.58 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% [13]. - **Environmental Protection Inspection**: On May 26, the fourth batch of the third - round central environmental protection inspections was launched, covering five provinces (regions) and three central enterprises [13]. - **Ningxia's Industrial Data**: From January to April, Ningxia's industrial coal production decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, while sales increased by 3.8%. Industrial power generation increased by 5.6%, with renewable energy power generation growing by 21.3% [14]. - **Ningxia's Energy Plan**: Ningxia plans to increase fossil energy supply, develop new energy, and promote energy storage construction. It also aims to achieve energy - saving and carbon - reduction goals in key industries by the end of 2025 [14]. - **Corporate Strategies**: Shanxi Coking Coal will implement a "three - matching" production strategy, and Chongqing Iron and Steel terminated the absorption and merger of Xingang Changlong [14][15]. - **Automobile Sales**: In April 2025, global automobile sales reached 7.56 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to April, sales were 30.26 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China accounted for 33% of global sales from January to April [15]. - **Coal Market Research**: From January to April 2025, the coal market showed a marginal slowdown in supply growth and stronger non - power demand than power demand. It is expected that the coal price may recover in the summer [15]. - **International News**: South Africa plans to import liquefied natural gas from the US, and the European Central Bank President called for reforms to reduce Europe's impact from international order changes [15]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple charts showing data on the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, production and utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, iron water production, inventory levels of coke and coking coal, and basis differences [16][17][19][30][34][35].