该行指，与市场一致预期相比，料536家有数据的A股公司中，23%将交出"盈利超预期"(2024年为 16%)，而54%则属"盈利不及预期"(2024年为57%)。虽然过去一年基本面逐步改善，但分析员对复苏速 度的预期显然过高。 大和发布研报称，中资股2025年业绩作出前瞻，料呈结构性复苏，但惊喜有限。该行料A股市场在2025 年暂时扭转了2022年至2024年的盈利恶化趋势。截至2026年1月30日，逾2,500家公布业绩预告的公司 中，有40.3%录得盈利改善(由亏转盈、盈利增长或持续盈利)，高于2024年的33.5%，但低于2025年上半 年43.8%。然而，大部分公司仍属负面业绩(持续亏损、盈利下滑或由盈转亏)。 受惠于全球金属行情及中国股市走强，料钢铁、有色金属及多元金融在2025年领跑，逾七成成份股盈利 改善。尽管地产持续低迷，房企及建材股盈利改善比例亦分别由约20%，各升至35%及53.7%。低基数 效应及政策反内卷措施是主要推动力。大和表示进入2026年以来，中国股票盈利动能延续：有色金属、 交通运输及电子板块录得最强盈利上调，而下游行业则遭下调。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the infrastructure industry chain is experiencing a significant increase in prosperity due to ongoing "stabilizing growth" policies, leading to a new round of large-scale equipment updates [1] - As of February 3, engineering machinery ETFs (516250), machinery ETFs (159886), and building materials ETFs (516750) have all seen notable gains, with increases of 6.02%, 3.76%, and 3.29% respectively, indicating a clear recovery trend [1] - Since 2026, the pace of major transportation, energy, water conservancy, and municipal engineering projects has accelerated, enhancing expectations for physical workload formation [1] Group 2 - Support policies for industrial equipment updates, renovation of old production lines, and domestic substitution of high-end equipment are continuously being implemented, creating new demand space for the machinery equipment industry [1] - The dual drive of "infrastructure investment support + manufacturing equipment upgrade and expansion" is becoming the core logic for improving expectations in the sector [1] - Research institutions believe that the engineering machinery industry is likely to experience a resonance of domestic demand recovery and renewal cycles, while the building materials sector is expected to benefit from improved demand due to the recovery of project commencement [1]

Market Overview - The market has experienced increased volatility this week, with sectors such as liquor and food and beverage showing signs of rebound from low levels. The net inflow of 180 million yuan into the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) indicates a potential increase in market risk aversion [1] - As of the latest data, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has risen by 0.39% during the trading session, with several constituent stocks, including Zoomlion Heavy Industry and Conch Cement, seeing gains of over 3% [1] Dividend Strategy Insights - The latest dividend yield for the CSI Dividend Index is 5.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.82%, highlighting the relative attractiveness of high dividend investments [2] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the dividend strategy has underperformed the market due to a shift in investor focus towards growth sectors, particularly in AI-related industries. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, where dividend strategies will still serve as a stabilizing component in investment portfolios [3][21] Investment Recommendations - Long-term investment in high-dividend stocks is recommended, particularly those with a strong history of dividend payments and solid cash flow. The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has outperformed its benchmark index by 71.28% since its inception, making it a viable option for investors seeking stable returns [5] - The focus of dividend investment should shift from merely seeking high dividend yields to ensuring sustainable dividend-paying capabilities, as this is crucial for long-term value [24] Performance Metrics - The CSI Dividend Index has shown a 40-day return difference of -7.04% compared to the Wind All A Index, indicating a recent recovery but still underperforming relative to the broader market [1][13] - Historical performance data shows that the CSI Dividend Index has delivered returns of 5.60% over the past year and 66.14% over the past decade, while the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has achieved 159.95% over the same period [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising 0.54% and the ISM manufacturing PMI increasing to 52.6, indicating a return to expansion in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - The report discusses the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, noting declines in major indices and specific sectors such as gold and cement, driven by international market trends and local supply-demand dynamics [2][3] Company Overview - The report focuses on Aixin Yuan Zhi (600.HK), a supplier of AI inference SoCs, established in 2019, with core products aimed at smart security, smart home, and smart automotive applications [7] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has shipped over 157 million visual terminal computing SoCs and is actively expanding into smart automotive SoCs and edge AI SoCs [7][8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 470 million yuan, a 105% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by chip shipment growth and the acquisition of Huatu [9] - The company anticipates a total revenue of 270 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, with a strategic adjustment impacting growth rates [9] Industry Status and Outlook - The report forecasts a 21% CAGR for China's edge AI inference chip market over the next five years, with the market size expected to reach 286.2 billion yuan by 2025 [10] - The competitive landscape indicates that Aixin Yuan Zhi holds a 6.8% market share in global visual edge AI inference chips, ranking fifth, while holding a 12.2% share in China's edge AI inference chips, ranking third [10] Advantages and Opportunities - The company has validated its technological capabilities with proprietary NPU and AI-ISP technologies, with approximately 80% of its workforce in R&D [11] - The smart automotive SoC and edge AI SoC markets are experiencing rapid growth, presenting optimistic future market potential [11] IPO Information - The IPO is scheduled from January 30 to February 5, 2026, with trading expected to commence on February 10, 2026 [13] - The report indicates that cornerstone investors have subscribed to 5.12 million shares, amounting to approximately 1.44 billion HKD, which represents 49% of the global offering [14][15]

中国建材(03323)反弹近7%，截至发稿，涨6.53%，报5.38港元，成交额1.7亿港元。 消息面上，中国建材近日发布盈警，预期2025年股东应占亏损至多约40亿元，主要因与水泥产能置换相 关的60亿至83亿元资产减值。美银证券发布研报称，亏损幅度远超该行预期。该行认为2025全年股息率 约5%的预期将面临风险。该行认为，此次资产减值属单次性质。随著水泥产能置换窗口将于3月底关 闭，进一步减值的空间有限。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国建材(03323)反弹近7%，截至发稿，涨6.53%，报5.38港元，成交额1.7亿港元。 消息面上，中国建材近日发布盈警，预期2025年股东应占亏损至多约40亿元，主要因与水泥产能置换相 关的60亿至83亿元资产减值。美银证券发布研报称，亏损幅度远超该行预期。该行认为2025全年股息率 约5%的预期将面临风险。该行认为，此次资产减值属单次性质。随著水泥产能置换窗口将于3月底关 闭，进一步减值的空间有限。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautious Sell**: Crude oil, LPG, ethylene glycol, methanol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][4] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish with Volatility**: PVC [1] - **Wide - Range Fluctuation**: PX/PTA [2] - **Cautious Chasing Upside**: Urea [2] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. There is still a large downward pressure due to oversupply and seasonal factors [7]. - **LPG**: It follows the decline in oil prices. Although there are some cost - side and inventory - side positives, the overall fundamentals are bearish [12]. - **L**: Petrochemical inventories have re - accumulated, and the market is in a bearish consolidation. Pay attention to the demand verification [17]. - **PP**: The market has given back geopolitical and macro premiums. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and there is no prominent contradiction [21]. - **PVC**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, and short - term export orders support prices, but high social inventories limit the upside [25]. - **PTA**: The valuation has been repaired, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [27]. - **MEG**: The low valuation has been repaired, but the supply - demand situation is weakening. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [30]. - **Methanol**: The main contract is at a high valuation level. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but there are short - term positives. Pay attention to buying on dips [35]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low, and short - term demand is strong, but downstream demand may weaken during the holiday season. Cautiously chase the upside [39]. - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave has subsided, and prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The upside space is limited [43]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the decline in oil prices. Although there are some raw - material positives, there is a short - term correction risk [47]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern, with high - level inventory slightly reducing. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further supply reduction [52]. - **Soda Ash**: The start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further intensification of maintenance [56]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.71%, Brent dropped 4.36%, and domestic SC dropped 2.11% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and oil prices are back to fundamental pricing. Core, there is an oversupply in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation [7]. Supply, OPEC+ will maintain its production policy in March, and US crude oil production is gradually increasing. Demand, India's crude oil imports in December increased. Inventory, as of January 23, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it may rebound. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. SC focus range is [445 - 455] [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On February 2, the PG main contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton, a 2.73% decline [11]. - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly anchored to oil prices. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventories are accumulating. As of February 2, the number of warehouse receipts was unchanged. As of January 30, the commodity volume increased, while the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. Refinery inventories increased, and port inventories decreased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to decline. In the short - term, the uncertainty of oil prices has increased. PG focus range is [4150 - 4250] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Petrochemical inventories have re - accumulated, and the market has given back geopolitical and weather premiums. Short - term, industries can consider short - selling hedging opportunities. Recent device restarts are expected to increase production this week. The basis has fallen to a low level, and attention should be paid to future demand verification. L focus range is [6800 - 7000] [17]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The market has given back geopolitical and macro premiums. The supply - side maintenance rate is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and PDH profit compression intensifies the maintenance expectation. Pay attention to future demand verification. PP focus range is [6600 - 6800] [21]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, and short - term export order volume supports prices, but high social inventories limit the upside. The comprehensive chlorine - alkali gross profit is at a low level, but the cost support at the bottom has improved. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken. V focus range is [5000 - 5200] [25]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation, TA05 is at a high level in the past three months, and the basis and processing fees have improved. Supply, domestic device changes are small, and the maintenance intensity is high. Demand, downstream demand is seasonally weakening. Inventory, there is a seasonal accumulation in January - February, but the pressure is not large. Cost, PX is in a weak - balance state. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 focus range is [5050 - 5190] [27]. 3.7 MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation, the low valuation has been repaired. Supply, domestic device load has increased, and overseas devices have slightly increased their load. Demand, downstream demand is seasonally weakening. Inventory, social inventory is slightly accumulating, and there is an accumulation pressure in January - February. Overall, it lacks upward drivers and fluctuates within a range. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range is [3710 - 3810] [30]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract is at a high valuation level, and the basis has changed [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply, domestic device start - up rate is high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their load. Import volume is expected to be 110wt in January, and port inventories have slightly increased. Demand, downstream demand has weakened significantly. Cost support is weak and stable. Overall, the fundamentals are slightly loose, but there are short - term positives [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying on dips. MA05 focus range is [2220 - 2280] [35]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract price changed, and the basis and spreads changed [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation, the absolute valuation is not low, and the basis has changed. Supply, the start - up rate has continued to rise, and the daily output has returned to over 200,000 tons. Demand, short - term demand is strong, but downstream demand may weaken during the holiday season. Inventory is still at a relatively high level. Overall, there is an upside limit and a downside support [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously chase the upside. UR05 focus range is [1770 - 1800] [39]. 3.10 LNG - **Market Review**: On January 30, the NG main contract closed at 4.416 dollars/million British thermal units, a 13.87% increase [41]. - **Basic Logic**: Core, the impact of the cold wave has subsided, and prices have gradually declined. Cost - profit, domestic LNG retail profit is unchanged. Supply, domestic natural gas production has increased, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. Demand, Japan's LNG imports have decreased. Inventory, US natural gas inventories have decreased [42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter, demand supports prices, but the upside space is limited. NG focus range is [3.120 - 3.676] [43]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 2, the BU main contract closed at 3299 yuan/ton, a 3.65% decline [46]. - **Basic Logic**: Core, the export of Venezuelan crude oil has more buyers, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and oil prices have dropped. There is a short - term correction risk. Cost - profit, the comprehensive profit is unchanged. Supply, the total asphalt output in February has decreased. Demand, asphalt imports and exports increased in 2025. Inventory, social inventories have increased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. BU focus range is [3250 - 3350] [48]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price is unchanged, and the basis and spreads have changed [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern, with high - level inventory slightly reducing. Demand is in a seasonal off - season, and supply needs to be further reduced to digest inventory. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further supply reduction. FG focus range is [1050 - 1100] [52]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [54]. - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned to be maintained, and the start - up rate has declined. Real - estate demand is weak, and heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing the upside before further intensification of maintenance. SA focus range is [1180 - 1230] [56].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market pullback is primarily due to external events, particularly the appointment of the Federal Reserve Chairman and the tendency to reduce the balance sheet, which has led to a rebound in the US dollar and a significant drop in gold and silver prices, adversely affecting emerging markets [1][6] - The report highlights that the mid-term trend remains positive, with clear evidence of performance recovery in the domestic market, as indicated by a 37% earnings forecast positive rate for 2025, surpassing the 33.5% rate of 2024 [2][6] - Analysts have been increasingly revising upward their earnings forecasts for 2026, with a maintained neutral (optimistic) profit growth estimate of 11% (17%) for non-financial sectors [2][6] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying the right allocation range, suggesting that the upcoming National People's Congress in early March could act as a catalyst for improving risk appetite [3][7] - It is recommended to focus on sectors with growth potential, particularly in technology and cyclical industries, as the report notes that the transition to a slow bull market makes it easier to price risks through rapid pullbacks [3][7] - The report identifies key sectors to watch, including materials, chemicals, machinery, steel, and construction, which are expected to benefit from supply advantages [3][7]

Group 1: Aerospace and Defense - Domestic aviation engine control systems and related products maintain a leading position in military aviation engine control systems, collaborating closely with major domestic aviation engine manufacturers [2] - Tongyu Communications invested 30 million yuan in Hongqing Technology, a satellite core component company, to strengthen its layout in key components for satellite internet [2] - Jiangshun Technology's related mold products can be used in aerospace applications [2] - Woge Optoelectronics has achieved in-orbit application of flexible solar wing substrates for satellites in collaboration with leading commercial aerospace clients [2] - Parker New Materials is one of the few private enterprises in China providing precision ring forgings and precision die forgings for high-end equipment such as aviation engines and space launch vehicles [2] - Shenjian Co., Ltd. produces aerospace-related molds and metal parts, including products for the Beidou satellite navigation system [2] - Hailanxin, as a member of a consortium, won the bid for the Hainan commercial rocket sea recovery command and control ship project [2] Group 2: Technology and Electronics - Tianyong Co., Ltd. produces lithium niobate crystal materials, which are key raw materials for lithium niobate electro-optic modulation chips and devices [3] - Hangdian Co., Ltd. is an important cable supplier and technical partner for the State Grid Hangzhou Power Supply Company, with an integrated industry chain in optical communication [3] - Huasheng Tiancai is advancing its "AI + computing power" strategy, enhancing revenue from AI-related solutions [6] - ClawdBot and other agent products have gained global popularity, with Kimi's K2.5 model topping multiple global rankings [6] Group 3: Renewable Energy and Materials - Nanwang Energy, a subsidiary of the Southern Power Grid, is actively involved in distributed photovoltaic and wind power, aiming to enhance the grid's capacity for clean energy [7] - The company expects a profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [7] - Aotwei is a leading manufacturer of photovoltaic module equipment, having entered the supply chain of 18 of the top 20 global module manufacturers [5] - The company has established a business partnership with major battery manufacturers for automated assembly lines of cylindrical lithium batteries [5] Group 4: Consumer and Entertainment - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption [6] - Hongtai Liquor, a small-scale liquor company in Gansu, has two major brands and a series of products [6] - The company has invested in films scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival [6]

Group 1 - The recent market pullback is primarily driven by the appointment of the Federal Reserve Chairman and the tendency to reduce the balance sheet, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and a significant drop in gold and silver, which has suppressed risk appetite in emerging markets [1][4] - The number of companies hitting the daily limit down reached 130 on February 2, surpassing the previous high of 107 on November 21, marking a six-month low [1][4] - The net outflow from margin trading over two consecutive days reached 29.5 billion, setting a new six-month high [1][4] Group 2 - Evidence of performance recovery for 2025-2026 is becoming clearer, with a 37% earnings forecast positive rate for 2025, exceeding the 33.5% rate of 2024 [1][4] - Analysts have been increasingly revising upward their earnings forecasts for 2026, maintaining a neutral (optimistic) profit growth estimate of 11% (17%) for non-financial sectors in 2026 [1][5] - Recent trends show that over 1 trillion has flowed out of broad-based ETFs in the past two weeks, but there is a noticeable trend of residents moving their deposits after the maturity of long-term savings [5] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of capturing the current allocation range, with expectations that the upcoming National People's Congress in early March will act as a catalyst for improving risk appetite [2][5] - The anticipated recovery in PPI is expected to support EPS, highlighting the ongoing value in technology innovation and cyclical sectors, particularly in areas such as computing power, energy storage, AI applications, and smart driving [2][5] - The cyclical sectors, referred to as the "five flowers," are expected to benefit from supply advantages, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, steel, and building materials [2][5]