基本面： ---趋势判断---- 周五（11月28日）白银亚盘震荡上涨，关注回落支撑位多单布局。白银现货价格53.76附近。亚市早盘先跌后涨，亚盘尾盘左右快速拉升至日内高点53.9附 近，随后逐步回落并在53.2-53.3区间进入横盘震荡。受降息预期升温、工业需求激增以及中国市场供应紧张对多头形成支撑等多重因素影响，白银价格涨势 持续延续。交易商正密切关注12月市场是否会出现大幅波动。感恩节当周，现货白银依旧保持强劲走势，此次涨势传递出明确信号：买家交易活跃度居高不 下，而美联储的政策动向堪称此次涨势的核心推手。本周三，现货白银价格触及53.39美元，当日涨幅超3.5%；过去一个月累计涨幅已接近13.5%，同比涨幅 更是超75%。这一涨幅看似惊人，却符合市场规律：在贵金属市场真正迎来牛市行情时，白银往往会迎来暴涨，而非仅因避险需求出现小幅波动。 美联储政策立场支撑多头主导市场本周初，白银价格维持在50美元附近，交易商普遍强烈预期美联储将于12月实施降息。疲软的劳动力数据，加之纽约联邦 储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯释放的宽松信号，使得今年美联储第三次降息的概率从约40%飙升至80%以上。而这种市场环境正是白银所青 ...

几位美联储官员最近表示愿意采取短期宽松政策，这加强了市场对美联储可能在12月会议上再次降息25个基点的预期。 这一前景继续对美元构成结构性压力，有助于限制白银的大幅回调。 与此同时，在对美联储宽松政策信心增强的推动下，全球股市人气改善，在一定程度上减少了对避险资产的需求。然 而，这种影响被持续存在的地缘政治风险部分抵消。这令投资者保持适度谨慎，间接支撑了白银。 美元指数近期下跌后趋于稳定，略高于本周低点。最近美国公布的经济数据，包括喜忧参半的制造业数据、劳动力市场 走软的迹象和消费势头减弱，强化了对美国经济放缓的预期。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%，维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联储到明年1月累计 降息25个基点的概率为67.3%，维持利率不变的概率为9.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.1%。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于53.81一线上方，今日开盘于53.35美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报54.01美元/盎司，上涨1.07%，最高触及54.22美元/盎司，最低下探53.30美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December is still high, which supports the precious metal prices. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions and the neutral economic data in the US limit the upward movement of precious metal prices. The domestic silver inventory is at a near - decade low, causing the silver price to rise against the gold price. In the short - term, gold is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes. In the long - term, due to factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On November 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $4157.26/ounce, London silver spot at $53.42/ounce, COMEX gold at $4189.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $53.97/ounce. Compared with November 26, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.2%, London silver spot by 2.9%, COMEX gold by 0.1%, and COMEX silver by 3.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures also showed certain increases, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract rising 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rising 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [3][5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.6 yuan/gram on November 27, with a 15.9% increase compared to the previous day. The silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 13 yuan/kilogram, a - 35.0% change. The gold and silver price ratios and spreads between domestic and foreign markets also had different degrees of changes [5] 2. Position Data - As of November 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1045.43 tons, with a 0.44% increase compared to November 25. The silver ETF - SLV was 15582.3342 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding changes, with the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold decreasing by 12.09% [5] 3. Inventory Data - On November 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 90423.00 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and the SHFE silver inventory was 546976.00 kilograms, a 2.97% increase. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight changes [5] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On November 27, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08, a - 0.02% change. The US dollar index was 99.59, a - 0.22% change. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of changes [5] 5. Market Review - On November 27, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed up 0.14% to 947.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 3.35% to 12525 yuan/kilogram [5] 6. Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Although the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since mid - April, the US economic beige book showed that the Trump administration shutdown had a negative impact on consumer purchases. The market's high expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December supports precious metal prices, but geopolitical tensions easing and neutral economic data limit the upward movement. The low domestic silver inventory has led to a rise in silver prices. In the short - term, gold may fluctuate in a high - level range, and silver may fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to inventory changes [6] 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the medium - and long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. The continuation of central bank gold purchases will likely drive up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, and geopolitical risks in multiple regions remain unresolved, which may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and the price may fluctuate on the strong side [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for palladium from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but the price may be cautiously strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Futures**: Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) had a closing price of 943.13 yuan/gram on November 27, 2025, up 1.96 yuan from the previous day and 20.45 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 352,583, with a decrease of 67,866 from the previous day and 79,224 from last week. The open interest was 195,755, an increase of 6,992 from the previous day and 35,445 from last week. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 90,423, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3 from last week [1]. - **Spot**: The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 941.17 yuan/gram on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 [1]. - **International**: COMEX gold futures had a closing price of 4,126.30 dollars/ounce on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 229,049, and the open interest was 232,736. The London gold spot price was 4,139.60 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 484.24 tons [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Futures**: Shanghai silver futures had a closing price of 12,227 yuan on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 1,827,650, and the open interest was 385,232. - **Spot**: The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 on November 26, 2025 [1]. - **International**: COMEX silver futures had a closing price of 53.76 dollars/ounce on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 83,948, and the open interest was 102,422. The London silver spot price was 51.21 dollars/ounce. The holdings of the iShare Silver ETF were 15,582.33 tons [1]. 3.1.3 Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 445 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 61.90 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 58.11 dollars/barrel on November 27, 2025 [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were at 86,990 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was at 10,930 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,875.2594, the S&P 500 was at 6,812.6100, the UK FTSE 100 was at 9,552.3000, etc. [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.12%, the 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.77%, the dollar index was 99.8123, the dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.0779 [1]. 3.2 Important News - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan for the first time, stating that there is no final plan yet and preparing for a "serious" discussion with the US next week. Currently, negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership have no practical significance [1]. - ECB official Kazaks warned that "it is too early to talk about rate cuts" and inflation risks still need to be vigilant [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The negative growth of the US ADP private - sector weekly new employment and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Japan's economic stimulus plan has intensified its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal buffer space has increased, but there are concerns about future economic growth. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices [1]. - **Platinum**: On the supply side, factors such as high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, and recycled platinum production grows slowly. On the demand side, the increase in exhaust emission standards and positive demand expectations in multiple industries lead to a tight supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026, and the rising rate - cut expectation may push the price up [1]. - **Palladium**: On the supply side, mining issues affect production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the demand from other industries has low elasticity. The supply - demand outlook may shift from tight to loose, but the rate - cut expectation may keep the price cautiously strong [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: It is advisable to go long on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 55 - 63 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 10,000 - 11,000 yuan and the resistance level is around 12,700 - 13,000 yuan [1]. - **Platinum**: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term or consider the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,260 - 1,460 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, the support level is around 325 - 377 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. - **Palladium**: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,080 - 1,280 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, the support level is around 320 - 350 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold investment is increasingly favored as a traditional safe-haven asset, with simulated trading emerging as a crucial entry point for new investors to mitigate risks and uncertainties associated with real trading [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Simulated Trading - Simulated trading is essential for beginners, allowing them to practice in a risk-free environment using virtual funds, which helps in understanding market dynamics and technical analysis [2][4]. - Over 80% of successful investors have gained experience through simulated trading before entering real markets, enhancing their confidence and reducing learning costs [2][4]. - The simulated trading feature of the Wanzhou Gold Industry APP provides a realistic trading experience with real-time market data, facilitating a smooth transition from theory to practice [2][4]. Group 2: Advantages of Wanzhou Gold Industry APP - Wanzhou Gold Industry is a compliant platform with robust security measures, including advanced encryption and risk control systems, ensuring user data and funds are safe [4][5]. - The APP offers a user-friendly interface with comprehensive features such as real-time market data, technical analysis tools, and a dedicated simulated trading module [4][5]. - Users can register for a simulated trading account without any initial deposit, allowing them to practice trading anytime and anywhere [4][5]. Group 3: Zero-Risk Practical Experience - After downloading and registering on the Wanzhou Gold Industry APP, users receive $200,000 in virtual funds to practice trading, enabling them to learn basic and advanced trading strategies [8][9]. - The APP includes educational resources and historical data replay features, allowing users to refine their trading skills and develop a calm investment mindset [8][9]. - Engaging in simulated trading for 1-3 months can increase the success rate in real trading by over 30%, providing a solid foundation for future investments [9]. Group 4: Safe Download Guidelines - Investors should prioritize official channels for downloading the Wanzhou Gold Industry APP to avoid risks associated with third-party platforms and phishing links [5][10]. - Recommended download sources include the official website, Apple App Store, and major Android app markets [10].

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price has slightly declined, currently around 52.90, with market focus on support levels for long positions [1] - Recent U.S. economic indicators show signs of weakness, with retail sales in September growing only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and a significant drop in consumer confidence index to 88.7 from 95.5 [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][3] Market Sentiment - The dovish shift from the Federal Reserve has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction [3][4] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including calls for further rate cuts due to a weakening job market, have bolstered market confidence [3][4] - The bond market reflects strong expectations for a dovish Fed, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening yield curve [4] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with significant resistance at 54.3-54.4 and support around 45.5 [5][9] - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish trend, although market momentum appears to be weakening [5][9] - The current trading strategy suggests positioning for long trades near the support level of 52.00, with a stop loss at 51.60 and a target range of 53.50-53.90 [9]

2025-11-26 15:25:57 作者：狼叫兽 还在觉得开贵金属开户很麻烦？你只是缺一份「新手村」任务指南！这份保姆级速通秘籍，包教包会， 轻松搞定开户。 第一步：挑个靠谱平台 ●查资质：看看平台有没有"正经工作"（监管牌照）。比如查询是否持有香港黄金交易所颁发的权威资 质。比如皇御贵金属，就是香港黄金交易所79号AA类行员，具有专业的资质，可作为重点选择参考的 条件。 ●比一比：谁家手续费低、点差小、保证金要求友好，就优先考虑谁，省钱才是硬道理，平台优惠也是 平台竞争力之一。 第二步：准备好你的"身份三件套"（具体要求根据具体平台来准备即可） 在平台官网找到开户入口，把个人信息、联系方式等认真填好。放心，这跟你注册个社交账号差不多简 单。 第四步：等平台"验明正身" 提交资料后，平台会快速审核你所提交的信息，确认准确性。 第五步：给账户"充钱"才能开耍 审核通过后，就可以给你的交易账户存款啦！网银、支付宝、微信，看平台支持哪种，选你方便的来。 操作也十分简单，可以自己在用户中心摸索，也可以找平台客服咨询，24小时客户随时听你"安排"。 第六步：熟悉"作战地图"（交易软件） 钱到账了先别急！花点时间熟悉 ...

3）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于降息周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和云国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行购金延续 等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 体拥备中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈外，国资策货力求准确可靠。但不对上述精急的准确性及完整性以任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别数资者接持的货资目标、购多优规或需要，投资 者需自行判随本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此投资。责任章负。本报告仅同能定客户推进、未经国贸繁货领数许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为中应成"国贸联络的景观 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 ...

2025年10月，上海黄金交易所各类合约的成交金额为45,242.49亿元，同比增加11.8%，其中，询价交易成交25,857.97亿元，占比 57.2%。会员自营和代理业务的交易金额分别为40,439.17亿元和4,803.32亿元。 本月国际金价大幅冲高回落，现货黄金（XAU）收于4,002.92美元/盎司，较上月上涨190.7美元，低点和高点分别为3,804.63美元 和4,381.52美元。国际现货白银（XAG）收于48.69美元/盎司，较上月上涨2.47美元，低点和高点分别为45.56美元和54.48美元。 现货铂金（XPT）收于1,574.23美元/盎司，较上月上涨13.37美元，低点和高点分别为1,498.85美元和1,733.53美元。 国内市场，上金所黄金Au99.99合约月初开盘价917.9元/克，最高价1,002.00元/克，最低价894.01元/克，月末收于921.50元/克， 较上月末上涨49.64元/克，月度涨幅5.69%，本月加权均价为943.83元，较上月高113.65元。本月黄金竞价主力合约Au（T+D）共 成交1,172,568千克，占黄金交易量的25.8%，月末持仓247 ...

在全球经济不确定性加剧的当下，炒黄金正成为越来越多投资者避险与配置的选择。然而，黑平台层出不穷、跑路事件时有发生，让人防不胜防。本文只聊 最核心的安全底线：正规监管牌照、资金隔离存管、交易可追溯，用这三把尺子帮大家筛出真正靠得住的炒黄金平台，为你的资金安全多加一道保险。 炒黄金最该关心的3个安全底线 很多人以为点差低、杠杆高就是好平台，其实资金能不能拿回来才是第一位。 • 第一道防线：有没有国际硬核监管？香港黄金交易所和ASIC（澳大利亚证券与投资委员会）是全球公认的"金标准"，拿牌照的平台每年都要接受审计，违 规就可能被吊销。 • 第二道防线：客户资金是否真正隔离？正规平台会把你的钱直接存到第三方合作银行，与平台自有资金完全分开，哪怕平台经营出问题，你的钱也动不 了。 • 第三道防线：每一笔交易能不能查到？完整的订单记录和交易流水，是出现纠纷时最有力的证据。 金盛贵金属作为香港黄金交易所认可的行员，正是严格遵守以上三项标准的典型代表。 亲测几家真正持牌平台的真实体验 我们挑选了几家同时具备香港黄金交易所或ASIC完整牌照、资金银行隔离的平台（包括金盛贵金属）进行实盘体验，重点看极端行情下的表现： • 金价暴 ...