投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

| | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 102.20 | -0.60 | 2.25 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 PB粉 | 758 765 | -8 -8 | 10 11 | 810.7 810.8 | 97.35 100.00 | -1.30 -1.35 | 3.10 3.00 | -27.20 -6.10 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 746 | -8 | 16 | 815.0 | 95.60 | -1.55 | 3.25 | -2.43 | | | 金布巴 | 726 | -10 | 11 | 817.2 | 91.85 | -0.90 | 3.25 | 0.34 | | 主流 | 混合粉 | 680 | -3 | 18 | 805.1 | 86.10 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 1.89 | | | 超特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].

华 金 期 货 黑 色 原 料 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/16 | | | 铁矿周度汇总 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应 | 海外发运整体维持在正常水平，本周澳巴发运保持稳定，非主流 发运大幅回升，国产铁精粉产量保持稳定，关注海外发运变化。 3 | | | 需求 | 钢厂利润尚可，预计铁水产量仍将高位波动，持续关注产量端变 | | | | 化。 | | 铁矿石 | 库存 | 疏港量维持在高位，烧结粉库存维持正常水平，需求端短期高位 波动，港口库存保持稳中略降节奏。 | | | 基差与价差 | 青岛港pb粉大幅回升，09合约表现较强，整体供应充裕，预计持 | | | | 续回升空间较小。 | | | 总结 | 铁水产量高位波动，尽管钢厂烧结粉库存较低，但刚需有走弱预 | | | | 期，原料端预计难有持续回升空间。 | | | 风险因素 | 成材需求再度大幅回落，铁水产量持续维持在低位。 | 数据来源&制图：我的钢铁、万得、华金期货 24-05 一、铁矿石海外供应 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 铁矿石市场周报 发运和库存同降，铁矿石期价重心上移 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至5月16日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为728（+32）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉816（+17）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比减少117.9万吨。2025年05月05日-05月11日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减 少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2万吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发 运量625.2万吨，环比减少146.0万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量减少64.4万吨。2025年05月05日-05月11日中国47港到港总量2570.0万吨，环比减少64.4万吨；中国45 港到港总量23 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-16 市场情绪缓和，钢价走势震荡 钢材：市场情绪缓和，钢价走势震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3118元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3260元/吨。现货方面，昨日现货成交 整体一般偏弱，全国建材成交10万吨。 综合来看：本周受常规检修增加影响，热卷产量及库存环比下降，螺纹需求维持，库存持续去化，五大材周度环 比去库。中美关税政策缓和后，成材盘面价格贴水修复，宏观情绪扰动消退，市场重回基本面逻辑。关注后续供 给端政策落地情况。 策略 单边：震荡，关注情绪改善下的贴水修复 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水见顶回落，港口库存下降 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石主力2509合约收于736.5元/吨，跌幅0.07%。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格 持稳运行，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏弱，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主，目前市场成交情况较少。 昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交100.7万吨，环比下跌18.33%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交156.0万吨（10笔），环 ...

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投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面表现弱稳，矿价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求开始回落，目前降幅有限，仍将给予矿价支 撑，但矿石需求已然触顶，利好效应不强。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运高位回落，而内矿生 产积极，矿石供应维持高位，且回升预期未变。总之，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿 价低位回 ...

山东金岭矿业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 实现产业协同效应。挖掘服务领域潜力，增强现代服务业 | | --- | | 领域的竞争力。感谢关注。 | | 6.请问总经理，大张铁矿的勘探周期是多长？预期什 | | 么时候可以公布勘探储量？ | | 答：尊敬的投资者您好，大张地区铁矿勘探工作正在 | | 进行中，后续进展请以公告为准，感谢您的关注，谢谢。 | | 7.请问总经理，永锋钢铁集团是否公司的大客户之 | | 一？永锋钢铁是否已经通过控股公司买入金岭矿业的股 | | 票？ | | 答：尊敬的投资者您好，目前公司没有和永锋钢铁集 | | 团发生业务，公司前十大股东已在定期报告披露，敬请查 | | 阅。感谢您的关注，谢谢。 | | 8.请问总经理，宝武集团已经全面介入了山钢集团的 | | 业务流程，那铁矿石业务，金岭矿业是否有与宝武资源合 | | 作的可能？合作是否已经开始？具体是哪些项目或者方 | | 向？ | | 答：尊敬的投资者您好，公司目前没有与宝武资源开 | | 展合作，感谢您的关注，谢谢。 | | 9.请问总经理，公司年初宣传今年是资本操作启动 | | 年，并最少完成一家在产铁矿的投资，目前 ...