Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 772.0 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. Although the US steel and aluminum tariff expansion has a negative impact on market sentiment, considering that steel mills maintain high production to support the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, the ore price still has some support in the short term. However, it is necessary to observe whether the actual impact of production cuts in the Tangshan area will have a negative impact on the fundamentals [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 777 yuan/ton, the highest price was 784 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 766.5 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 772 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were down 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were down 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract had been enlarged for two consecutive trading days [7][9] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may fluctuate at a moderately low level. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is still in a seasonal decline, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. However, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is still relatively strong, and the molten iron output rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline, remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons, which strongly supports the ore price [11] - **News Impact**: On August 15, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced that 407 imported steel and aluminum derivative products would be included in the scope of the 232 - clause tariff of 50%. The effective time starts at 12:01 am on August 18, 2025, Eastern Time in the US. On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to the meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restrictions in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 billet - rolled section steel enterprises. If the production cuts are strictly implemented, it may have a negative impact on the fundamentals [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - On August 14, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam issued Announcement No. 2310/QD - BCT, making a positive anti - dumping final ruling on carbon and alloy steel coated sheets and coils originating from China and South Korea, and decided to impose anti - dumping duties on the涉案 products. The tax rate for China is 0 - 37.13%, and for South Korea is 0 - 15.67%. The measures are effective from the date of the announcement and are valid for five years [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the inventory available days of iron ore in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered ore powder, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products in steel mills [14][19][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. Attention should be paid to the repair progress of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [4]. - The short - term price of iron ore may be slightly adjusted due to the weakening of terminal demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent shipping progress and the contradiction between high - level hot metal production and terminal demand [7]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate opportunistically. The final price will move closer to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream terminal demand [8][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in major production areas and the impact of policies [13][14][15]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [17][18]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3155 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3419 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The positions of both decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation accelerated, while hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are rising marginally, with high production but insufficient demand [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 1577 hands to 44.89 million hands [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average hot - metal output increased, and port and steel mill inventories both increased. Terminal demand weakened, and short - term prices may be adjusted [7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 18, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed flat at 6026 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) fell 0.88% to 5880 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: Investment positions are recommended to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate according to their own situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment still disturbs the market, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, down 2.27% (- 200). The weighted contract position increased by 20923 hands to 552911 hands [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52280 yuan/ton, down 0.87% (- 460). The weighted contract position decreased by 1658 hands to 321203 hands [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, inventory clearance was limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe was 1160 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day. The national floating - glass inventory increased, and the inventory days increased. The market sentiment has been digested, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may rise [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment, but the rise is limited by demand [18].

Group 1 - BHP's annual profit decreased by 26% due to weak demand, particularly for iron ore and coking coal, with a basic distributable profit of $10.2 billion, aligning with analyst expectations [1] - Revenue dropped by $4.4 billion over the past 12 months, primarily due to falling prices of iron ore and coal, although rising copper prices partially offset this impact [1] - The company raised its net debt range from $5 billion to $15 billion to $10 billion to $20 billion [1] Group 2 - CEO Mike Henry expressed a mixed outlook on the global economic landscape but remains confident in the long-term fundamentals for steelmaking materials, copper, and fertilizers [1] - BHP's copper business saw growth during this period, becoming a key growth area as demand is expected to surge with global electrification and decarbonization efforts [1] - The ongoing real estate crisis has led to an oversupply of steel, negatively impacting iron ore demand and limiting price increases for coking coal [1] Group 3 - BHP indicated that the external operating environment for fiscal year 2025 is influenced by complex and evolving global conditions, with increased policy uncertainty affecting investment and trade flows [2]

（文章来源：新华财经） 巴西对外贸易秘书处（Secex）数据显示，2025年8月截至第3周，共计11个工作日，巴西累计装出铁矿 石1909.62万吨，去年8月为3424.05万吨；日均装运量为173.6万吨/日，较去年8月的155.64万吨/日增加 11.54%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report concludes that from a fundamental perspective, there has been an increase in both shipments and arrivals this period. Shipments from Australia have steadily recovered, while there are significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream mines, leading to increased overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.7 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and it is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the next period. Overall demand remains at a high level but fluctuates. The production restrictions in the north before September 3 will have a phased impact on demand, so attention should be paid to relevant production restriction policies. In summary, after the basis of iron ore narrows, there is clearly insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, the spot and futures prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the basis may strengthen. It is expected that the 01 contract will fluctuate between 90 - 100 US dollars [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot products showed slight fluctuations. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 6, while PB fines decreased by 6. As of August 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.8, up $0.3 week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 851 yuan after currency conversion. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines, with a current price of around 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) is around 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased week-on-week but is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year. Considering the unloading end, the arrivals are expected to decline; from the demand side, the pig iron output has slightly increased, and the average daily port clearance volume has increased. It is predicted that the overall unloading and warehousing volume at 47 ports in the next period may be lower than the outbound volume, and the port inventory may slightly decrease [6]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period are 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.595 million tons week-on-week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are 26.697 million tons, an increase of 2.419 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments are 16.042 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons week-on-week, of which the volume shipped to China is 13.475 million tons, a decrease of 0.181 million tons week-on-week. Brazil's shipments are 10.655 million tons, an increase of 2.181 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Arrivals**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.315 million tons week-on-week; the total arrivals at 45 ports are 24.766 million tons, an increase of 0.947 million tons week-on-week; and the total arrivals at six northern ports are 12.525 million tons, an increase of 0.495 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has increased this period, reaching 240.66 million tons per day, an increase of 0.34 million tons per day compared to last week, 0.54 million tons per day higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.89 million tons per day higher than the same period last year. One new blast furnace is under maintenance this period, located in the Northeast region, due to weakening downstream demand for finished products. It is expected to last until the end of the month. Blast furnaces that resumed production in the previous cycle have gradually reached full production this week, so the pig iron output has slightly increased. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plans, the pig iron output may continue to increase slightly in the next period. As of August 15, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China is 3134.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of around 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is around 225.5 yuan. In the electric furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao) is around 3368 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is around 3240 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China is around - 138 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit is around - 10 yuan [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted factory warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties are provided. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines at 792 yuan, and the second - best is PB fines at 803 yuan [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 15, the spread between the 09 and 01 iron ore contracts closed at 16 (- 0.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **High - Low Grade Price Spreads**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **Premium Index**: As of August 14, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore is 0.18 (- 0.005), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore is 16 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Data on the inventory of various iron ore brands (such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc.) at 15 ports and their historical trends are presented, along with information on brand premiums and discounts [30]. - **Steel Mill Sinter Fines Inventory**: As of August 15, the imported sinter fines inventory of 64 sample steel mills is 1318, an increase of 43.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37%. The domestic sinter fines inventory is 8, a decrease of 0.8 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average days of imported ore inventory survey is 2, an increase of 1.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.00% [33]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: As of August 15, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9136.4, an increase of 123.06 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. The daily consumption of imported ore is 298.5, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore is 30.6, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.26% [36]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels**: Data on the total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports are presented, along with their historical trends [39]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: As of August 15, the inventory of imported lump ore at ports is 1688, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of imported pellet ore is 325, a decrease of 12 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. The inventory of imported iron concentrate is 1095, a decrease of 19 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The inventory of imported coarse ore is 10712, an increase of 140 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [42]. - **Port Clearance**: Historical data on port clearance volumes from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45]. - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Data on the in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China are presented, along with their historical trends [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantities**: Data on the import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries are presented, along with their historical trends [51]. - **Australian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world and to China from Australia, as well as the proportion of shipments to China, are provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Australia to China is 1348, a decrease of 18 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The total shipment volume from Australia is 1604, an increase of 23.9 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The proportion of shipments to China is 84.00%, a decrease of 2.4% from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% [60]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world from Brazil is provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Brazil to the world is 1066, an increase of 218 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 25.74% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: The shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to China are presented. Compared to August 8, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto decreased by 90 (- 15.41%), BHP Billiton decreased by 18 (- 4.39%), Vale increased by 220 (38.85%), and FMG decreased by 22 (- 8.25%). The total shipment volume increased by 90 (4.88%) [67]. - **Iron Ore Arrivals**: As of August 15, the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2477, an increase of 95 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The arrival volume at northern ports is 1253, an increase of 50 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.1% [74]. - **Freight Rates**: Historical data on the freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 - 2025 are provided [76]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production and inventory data of iron concentrate from domestic mines are presented. As of August 15, the production of iron concentrate from mines is 78.9, an increase of 3.3 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.37%. The inventory of iron concentrate from mines is 35, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [78]. - **Steel Mill Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily consumption of imported and domestic sinter fines by 247 steel mills, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, are presented. As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.2, an increase of 0.13 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The average daily consumption of imported sinter fines is 61.2, a decrease of 0.39 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The average daily consumption of domestic sinter fines is 8.7, an increase of 0.46 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.60% [80]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year comparisons [86]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China are presented, along with historical trends [89]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of regions outside China are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Although adverse weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall in many areas still occur frequently, the real - time terminal demand for steel may remain under pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure of coils and rebar may continue. However, after the "severe flood period from late July to early August", with the start of large - scale "two major" projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Plant and the continuous implementation of "two new" policies, the terminal demand for steel may remain resilient, and steel futures prices may have downward support [1][41]. - Iron ore: Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steel industry stability - growth work plan, and the China Iron and Steel Association has proposed to strictly implement the deployment of crude steel production control, and there may be production restrictions for steel mills in North China near the September 3rd parade, the demand - side pressure on iron ore may gradually emerge, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at iron ore ports. But due to the policy expectation difference in supply - side structural reform and the implementation of demand - side management policies, the replenishment demand of traders and terminal steel mills before the production restrictions in North China in late August may still be released, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still relatively high, so the demand for iron ore may remain resilient, and iron ore futures prices may have downward support [2][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected Boost but Weak Reality Dominates, Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices Rise and Then Fall - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed a trend of rising and then falling. The main contracts of hot - rolled coils and iron ore performed slightly stronger, both rising 0.32% week - on - week, while the futures price of the rebar main contract fell 0.78% week - on - week. In the first two trading days of last week, policy expectations led to a strong - side oscillation of steel and iron ore futures prices. However, starting from Wednesday, the prices began to fall. One reason was the expected pressure on China's macro - economic data in July, and the actual data of investment, consumption, industry, and real estate were indeed under pressure. The other reason was the significant decline in the apparent demand for rebar and the continuous inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coils [4]. 2. Supply - Demand Marginally Loose but Terminal Demand Resilience May Gradually Appear, Steel and Iron Ore Inventory Accumulation Pressure May Be Limited Overall (1) Steel: The Window of Supply - Demand Mismatch in Loose Conditions Remains, but Terminal Demand Resilience May Gradually Appear, and Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Terminal Demand**: Last week, the consumption of rebar significantly declined to below the level of the same period last year, while the consumption of hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month and was higher than that of the same period last year. The impact of off - season adverse weather on the consumption of building materials such as rebar was more significant. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of investment, consumption, industry, and real estate indicators all declined. Although the year - on - year decline in new housing starts in the real estate sector continued to narrow slightly and the year - on - year growth rate of automobile sales increased, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment still widened, and the year - on - year growth rates of narrow - sense infrastructure and manufacturing investment also slowed significantly. This week, although the adverse weather still exists, the terminal demand for steel may remain resilient with the start of "two major" projects and the implementation of policies [9]. - **Supply**: Last week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased for the first time after continuous increases, and the profits of rebar blast furnaces, electric furnaces, and hot - rolled coils continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of steel mill blast furnaces and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils remained basically stable. This week, the expected "one - size - fits - all" administrative production cuts have decreased, and steel production may still have room for release. However, with the upcoming new round of steel industry stability - growth plan and production control policies, as well as the possible production restrictions in North China near the September 3rd parade and off - season factors, the overall steel supply may be under pressure [18]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate. This week, although the terminal demand for steel shows resilience, the expected reduction of "one - size - fits - all" production cuts and the overall pressure on off - season real - time demand may lead to a continuation of the inventory accumulation pressure for coils and rebar [30]. (2) Iron Ore: Although the Expectation of Steel Mill Production Restrictions and Supply - Side Structural Reform Remains, the Demand Side May Have Resilience, and Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Demand**: Last week, the iron ore port clearance volume at 45 ports significantly increased to the highest level in recent years, and the port transactions were active. The daily iron ore consumption of steel mills and the average daily molten iron output increased slightly. This week, although there may be production restrictions for steel mills, the replenishment demand of traders and terminal steel mills before the production restrictions in North China in late August may still be released, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills is still high, so the demand for iron ore may remain resilient [34]. - **Supply**: Last week, the iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 242,000 tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by nearly 95,000 tons. This week, the iron ore shipment from overseas mines may transition from the off - season to normal, and new production capacity is expected to be released. The overall supply of iron ore may be relatively loose [35]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory of steel mills increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at iron ore ports, but the replenishment demand of steel mills may limit the degree of inventory accumulation [38]. 3. Supply - Demand Marginally Loose but the Implementation Effect of Demand - Side Management Policies May Gradually Appear, Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices May Have Downward Support - **Steel Operation Suggestions**: Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels can temporarily slow down the sales rhythm; traders with low inventory levels, downstream, and terminal procurement enterprises can appropriately speed up the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to adopt a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, paying attention to profit - taking and stop - loss [41]. - **Iron Ore Operation Suggestions**: Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels can appropriately speed up the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market; traders with high inventory levels can temporarily slow down the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to adopt a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, paying attention to profit - taking and stop - loss [43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content provided Group 3: Summary of Iron Ore Spot Data - **Australian mainstream iron ore**: Newman powder price is 767 with no daily or weekly change, PB powder price is 772 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 2, Macfarlane powder price is 763 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 3, etc [1] - **Brazilian mainstream iron ore**: Ba Hun price is 810 with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 1, Ba Coarse IOC6 price is 764 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 4 [1] - **Other regions' iron ore**: Ukrainian fine powder price is 876 with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly increase of 11, 61% Indian powder price is 733 with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 2 [1] - **Domestic iron ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate price is 977 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 19 [1] Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Futures Data - **DCE contracts**: i2601 price is 776.0 with a daily increase of 1.0 and a weekly increase of 2.5, i2605 price is 755.5 with a daily increase of 2.5 and a weekly increase of 2.5, i2509 price is 792.0 with a daily increase of 1.0 and a weekly increase of 2.0 [1] - **SGX contracts**: FE01 price is 101.24 with a daily decrease of 1.44 and a weekly decrease of 0.82, FE05 price is 98.80 with a daily decrease of 1.60 and a weekly decrease of 1.24, FE09 price is 102.09 with a daily decrease of 1.42 and a weekly decrease of 0.16 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As the Politburo meeting concludes and the sentiment related to "anti - involution" cools down, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures price trend weakens. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may not maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the finished product price [3]. - In the short term, the iron ore price may be slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will further intensify. Also, follow - up actions of blast furnace enterprises regarding the production suspension of Tangshan independent rolling enterprises need to be monitored [6]. - In the short - term market environment controlled by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, and it is advisable to wait and see. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations but should control margin (cash flow) safety [10]. - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate weakly, with support at 8000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton respectively [14][16]. - In the short term, it is expected that glass and soda ash will fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to gradually increase in the price center, but their upward space is limited [18][19]. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3188 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 119412 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10357 tons. The main contract position was 1.617947 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 18597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.203%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 78386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The main contract position was 1.255562 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 36269 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The export volume declined slightly this week, and the overall export remained weak. Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's carrying capacity is obviously insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.13% (+ 1.00), and the position changed by - 4631 lots to 447,300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 895,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 772 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5]. - **Market Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume both decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot metal production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mill imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 15, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6026 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed up 0.17% at 5754 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: The market for "anti - involution" trading still disturbs the market, and relevant emotional disturbances will continue to affect the market. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has shown an upward trend recently. It is expected that in the future, the demand for ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, or the entire black sector will likely weaken marginally [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.50% (+ 130). The weighted contract position changed by - 3135 lots to 531,988 lots. The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52740 yuan/ton, up 4.58% (+ 2310). The weighted contract position changed by + 12752 lots to 322,861 lots [13][15]. - **Market Situation**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand of industrial silicon have not fundamentally changed. The production of polysilicon has increased week - on - week, and inventory depletion is limited. The polysilicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1090 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes (+ 2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The spot price of soda ash was 1280 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, with a growth rate of 0.94% [18][19]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices have significantly corrected with the cooling of market sentiment, and the current market sentiment has been basically digested. Soda ash prices fluctuate widely with the coal - chemical sector. In the short - term, both are expected to fluctuate [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term futures price of iron ore still has macro and micro support. Although the enthusiasm for chasing high prices of black commodities has declined, the macro - expectations reflected in other major asset sectors are not weak, and the active production of downstream steel mills supports the short - term price of iron ore [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Market Overview - The main 01 contract price of iron ore first rose and then fell this week, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 447,000 lots, an increase of 92,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 258,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 119,000 lots [7] - Imported iron ore spot prices rose slightly week - on - week, with high - grade Carajas fines having a relatively large price increase [12] Supply Side - Global iron ore shipments have been relatively stable recently. There are some differences in shipments between Australia and Brazil. Rio Tinto's shipments are continuously catching up with last year's progress. Among non - mainstream suppliers, shipments from India and Peru are relatively weak, and Ukraine had its first overseas shipment since November last year [5][21][27] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic iron ore mines has increased month - on - month with the recovery in North China [32] Demand Side - The production of hot metal and five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, showing a large increase compared with the same period last year, which supports the immediate demand for iron ore spot (also confirmed by port ore handling volume) [5][34] - Recently, the arrival volume of scrap steel has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the spot price of scrap steel is sticky. This week, it increased slightly month - on - month, while the cost of hot metal increased more. The price difference between scrap and hot metal continued to narrow [35] Inventory Side - The powder ore inventory has been rising continuously, and the destocking trend at ports has slowed down [38][40] Downstream Profit - Behind the high - level operation of steel mills' production, the positive profit of finished steel products is shrinking [42] Price Spread - The price differences between Carajas fines - PB fines and Tangshan iron concentrate - PB fines have both widened recently [45] - The 1 - 5 price spread of the iron ore futures contract has been relatively stable this week [47] - As the maturity date approaches, the basis of the 09 contract is gradually approaching par, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has also slightly shrunk month - on - month, basically the same as the basis amplitude in the same period last year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals have both decreased. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to mine maintenance, while Brazil's shipments rebounded. The daily average hot metal production increased slightly, mainly due to the improvement in the capacity utilization rate of previously restarted blast furnaces. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mills' imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side is in the traditional off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has begun to decline after raw material prices reached relatively high levels. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited. After the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the short - term iron ore price may experience a slight adjustment. Additionally, the news of the suspension of production of independent rolling enterprises in Tangshan from mid - month to the military parade has a certain but relatively insignificant impact on the raw material price. Attention should be paid to whether blast furnace enterprises will follow suit [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 30.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.303 million tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons. Australia's shipments were 16.625 million tons, a decrease of 1.177 million tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 14.478 million tons, a decrease of 996,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.678 million tons, an increase of 1.158 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in the country was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.143 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 103,500 tons [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spread: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 127 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.67%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 10.49 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. The pellet inventory was 324,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,130 tons. The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1.09524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,180 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.68774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,970 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 61.2753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,570 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 49.4084 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,770 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons, an increase of 1.2306 million tons from the previous week [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - The latest shipments from Australia to China via 19 ports were 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.228 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.474 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.047 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 874,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 2.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 253,000 tons. The arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.259 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.21%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from the previous period. The daily average production of iron concentrate in domestic mines was 47,790 tons, an increase of 2,020 tons from the previous period [50][53][56][59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3467 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9852 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons [70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of August 15, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 61.76 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.37% [78].