1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Data - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 798, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; PB powder price is 801, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Mac powder price is 803, up 1 daily and up 19 weekly; Jinbuba powder price is 754, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Mixed powder price is 740, down 5 daily and up 7 weekly; Super special powder price is 680, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Carajás powder price is 885, down 7 daily and up 15 weekly; Roy Hill powder price is 788, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; KUMBA powder price is 860, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 851, up 11 daily and up 26 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 765, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 770, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 877, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 743, down 3 daily and up 11 weekly; Karara concentrate powder price is 882, down 5 daily and up 7 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 615, unchanged daily and up 8 weekly; Atlas powder price is 735, down 5 daily and up 7 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 982, unchanged daily and up 6 weekly [1] Futures Market Data - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 809.0, down 7.0 daily and up 12.5 weekly; i2605 contract price is 789.0, down 7.5 daily and up 10.5 weekly; i2609 contract price is 767.0, down 6.5 daily and up 10.5 weekly [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 105.83, up 1.16 daily and up 1.07 weekly; FE05 contract price is 104.17, up 1.15 daily and up 1.36 weekly; FE09 contract price is 102.16, up 1.14 daily and up 1.41 weekly [1] Other Data - **Import Profit**: Newman powder import profit is 20.28; PB powder import profit is - 14.00; Mac powder import profit is 52.72; Jinbuba powder import profit is 37.44; Mixed powder import profit is 4.61; Super special powder import profit is - 10.63; Carajás powder import profit is - 26.66; Brazilian mixed ore import profit is 13.52 [1] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: i2601/i2605 spread is - 42.0, up 10.1 daily and up 3.7 weekly; i2605/i2609 spread is 20.0, up 30.1 daily and up 5.7 weekly; i2609/i2601 spread is 22.0, up 52.1 daily and up 5.7 weekly; FE01/FE05 spread is - 3.67, down 21.9 daily and up 5.3 weekly; FE05/FE09 spread is 1.66, down 28.2 daily and up 7.8 weekly; FE09/FE01 spread is 2.01, down 35.3 daily and up 5.4 weekly [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the disturbance of macro events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable supply, slight recovery in demand, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills. Coupled with the futures discount under the back structure + positive basis of futures contracts, the spot and futures will form a certain resonance in the short term, showing a trend of gradually strengthening in oscillation [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated and slightly declined during the day, closing at 789 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5 yuan/ton or -0.94% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 297,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 16,000 to 614,000 lots. The settled funds were 10.651 billion yuan. Although the disk price corrected, it still showed a relatively strong overall trend [1] - **Spot price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 3 to 807 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 692 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.85 (+1.68) US dollars/ton. The spot price strengthened slightly, and the swap price still showed a relatively strong upward breakthrough [1] - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 846.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 57.7 yuan/ton, with the basis widening again. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 20 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, with certain support below the futures price, continuing the trend of gradually strengthening [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply side is relatively stable, and attention should be paid to weather disturbances in the first quarter [2] - **Demand**: The sample molten iron production has gradually stabilized. Currently, steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still weak. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand [2] - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The game of inventory replenishment at the end of the year is intense. With large - scale accumulation of port inventory, small - scale replenishment by steel mills, and strong upstream - downstream game, the stabilization of molten iron and pre - festival inventory replenishment support the iron ore price. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and slightly strengthen [2] Macro - level Analysis - **United States**: The economic aggregate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, but the growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, a month - on - month decline of 3.8 points, lower than the market expectation of 91.0, reflecting that residents' judgment on the economic and employment prospects tends to be cautious. In terms of policy expectations, under the combination of "growth resilience + weakening confidence", the Fed is more inclined to be cautiously loose. In the manufacturing industry, the recovery of factory orders is moderate, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepens [3][4] - **China**: The demand recovery in November was slow, consumption and investment were under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profit from January to November still had a slight positive increase, and the economy showed "stabilization at a low level" with policy support still in place. There is industry differentiation: the equipment manufacturing industry led the growth (+7.2%, with some industries having high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerated (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turned positive, and the automobile industry weakened slightly (-0.3%). The improvement in profits mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery. If demand fails to keep up and the base increases, there will still be constraints in the future [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report - Date: December 30, 2025 - Industry: Iron Ore Report Highlights Futures Market - DCE01 closed at 809.0, down 7.0 from the previous day [2] - DCE05 closed at 789.0, down 7.5 from the previous day [2] - DCE09 closed at 767.0, down 6.5 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - PB powder (60.8%) price increased by 7 to 800 [2] - Newman powder price increased by 7 to 802 [2] - Macarthur powder price increased by 7 to 802 [2] Spread - I01 - I05 spread was 20.0, up 0.5 from the previous day [2] - I05 - I09 spread was 22.0, down 1.0 from the previous day [2] - I09 - I01 spread was -42.0, up 0.5 from the previous day [2] Import Profit - Carajás fines import profit increased by 11 to -14 [2] - Newman powder import profit decreased by 1 to 53 [2] - PB powder import profit decreased by 1 to 3 [2] Index - Platts 62% iron ore price increased by 1.0 to 108.9 [2] - Platts 65% iron ore price increased by 1.0 to 121.9 [2] - Platts 58% iron ore price increased by 1.1 to 94.7 [2] Price Difference - Carajás fines - PB powder price difference increased by 11 to 88 [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder price difference remained unchanged at 45 [2] - Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference increased by 11 to 135 [2] Base Difference - The optimal deliverable - 01 contract base difference was 16 for Carajás fines [2] - The optimal deliverable - 05 contract base difference was 35 for Carajás fines [2] - The optimal deliverable - 09 contract base difference was 58 for Carajás fines [2] Inner-Outer Spread - SGX main - DCE01 spread was 0.4, up 0.8 from the previous day [2] - SGX main - DCE05 spread was 2.9, up 1.0 from the previous day [2] - SGX main - DCE09 spread was 5.9, up 1.1 from the previous day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and thermal coal are all in a state of volatile operation. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, raw material replenishment expectations, and seasonal and policy - related factors [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,287 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume was average, with better low - price purchases during the morning price increase, increased speculative sentiment, and weaker trading in the afternoon. The basis first narrowed and then widened throughout the day, and the national building materials trading volume was 117,700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have no obvious contradictions, maintaining low production, low consumption, and low inventory. Plates are still restricted by high inventories, with limited marginal price fluctuations. In the short term, there are expectations of raw material replenishment in the market. Attention should be paid to environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, demand and inventory reduction, profit status, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose slightly, trading was average, traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand replenishment, with purchase prices mostly following the market [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand pattern continues to tighten. Port inventories have increased significantly, but downstream procurement demand is weak. Due to limited liquidity of some port supplies and market concerns about future actual supply, iron ore prices are supported by a relatively high valuation. If relevant negotiations make clear progress, potential supply - demand contradictions may emerge, and prices may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and changes in port inventory structure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile pattern throughout the day, and the main contracts of both closed slightly lower. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the quotations fluctuated with the market. The market is cautiously waiting and watching [5] Logic and View - As the end of the year approaches, the demand for capital repatriation increases, and speculative demand declines. For coking coal, the output of some coal mines has decreased, and with the stable customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the overall supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream replenishment rhythm. For coke, the overall supply is stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is average. On the demand side, the current absolute value of hot metal production is low, and the post - holiday blast furnace restart is expected to further drive the increase in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of steel mills and changes in hot metal production [5][6] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the supply of major coal - producing areas is tight due to factors such as the completion of annual production and sales tasks and face - moving operations. Coal mine inventories are generally low, and the sales of operating coal mines are good, with prices set according to the number of vehicles. In the short term, prices are expected to change little. At ports, the downward trend in the port market continues, but the decline has narrowed, and port inventories have decreased due to factors such as reduced shipments. Currently, downstream consumption has increased month - on - month, and with the expected impact of cold snaps in the future, market inquiries have increased, and demand is gradually improving. However, although inventories have declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and the later market consumption situation needs to be observed. For imported coal, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is inverted, and the decline in the imported coal market has also narrowed, with both high - and low - calorie coal prices falling [7] Demand and Logic - Recently, coal prices have changed from weak to strong, and downstream consumption has improved. Due to coal mines completing their annual tasks, it is difficult for supply to improve significantly in the later stage. Attention should also be paid to the consumption situation affected by factors such as weather in January. The supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and inventory replenishment [7] Strategy - None [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and with enhanced macro - level confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. For the iron ore sector, although there are factors suppressing prices such as falling steel output and rising port inventories, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend. The operation suggestion for both sectors is to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased. The overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, that for hot - rolled coil increased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost Support**: In recent days, coal and coke prices have rebounded sharply, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, currently not breaking out of the recent oscillation range or forming a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [2] - **Data Details**: Various data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day; the total social inventory of the five major varieties is 872.56 million tons, down 3.74% from last week [2] Iron Ore - **Market Confidence**: The Ministry of Finance's statement to ensure necessary spending in 2026, boost consumption, and expand effective investment has boosted market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to decline last week. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The late arrival of the pre - holiday restocking demand this year and the high global shipments, along with rising port inventories, put pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [4] - **Data Details**: Data on spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipments, freight rates, inventories, etc. are presented. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 796.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the total port inventory is 15858.66 million tons, up 2.23% from last week [5] Industry News - On December 29, some steel mills in Hebei lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, starting the fourth round of coke price cuts [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3677.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 212.6 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 244.8 million tons [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2727.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.4 million tons; at 45 ports, 2601.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; at six northern ports, 1330.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.2 million tons [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term, pay attention to the risk of decline, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11][12] - **US Dollar**: Short - term shock [14][15] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Expected to operate in a shock - upward manner, and maintain a bullish view [17][18] - **Stock Index Futures**: Continue to hold the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient. Focus on state reserve and customs policies. Without abnormal production cuts in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [25] - **Steam Coal**: The coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy side will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to maintain a shock market with certain support [29] - **Copper**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - **Zinc**: Unilaterally, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. For arbitrage, the positive spread should turn to waiting and see, and the internal - external spread should be treated with an internal - external reverse spread strategy [34] - **Lead**: Unilaterally and for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [38] - **Nickel**: Expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will still be a large upside space [41] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [43][44] - **Tin**: The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term futures price. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the ore supply will persist. Be vigilant about the price decline risk after the capital boom fades [48][49] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short - term [50][51] - **Asphalt**: The price will fluctuate in the short - term [52][53] - **Urea**: Do not chase the rise for now. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the start time and rhythm of spring plowing fertilizer demand and next year's export policy fluctuations. Try to go long at low prices when the relative valuation provides a certain safety margin [55] - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [57][58] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial instruments and commodities, including macro - strategy (such as foreign exchange futures, stock index futures, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal), black metals (steam coal, iron ore), non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, etc.), and energy chemicals (crude oil, asphalt, etc.). It points out the influencing factors of each market, such as geopolitical events, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [11][14][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - CME will raise the performance margin of multiple metal futures such as gold, silver, and lithium. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. The short - squeeze trading in silver has temporarily ended. With the poor market liquidity around the holiday and the increase in margin, the selling pressure has intensified. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday. After the holiday, pay attention to the potential decline risk caused by the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight in mid - January [11] 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's peace plan has encountered new obstacles. Russia said that Ukraine attacked Putin's residence, causing the cease - fire plan to stall. The US - Russia situation has new variables, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short - term [14][15] 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US existing - home sales in November reached a new high since the beginning of 2023. Trump is considering suing Powell. The mortgage rate has slightly decreased, leading to a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. However, the future interest - rate cut path is still uncertain. The US stock index futures are expected to operate in a shock - upward manner [16][17][18] 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Index has recorded nine consecutive positive days with heavy trading volume. The A - share market has large price fluctuations, with the commercial space concept rising significantly and the ChiNext Index falling. The expansion of liquidity is the main driving force for the recent market. It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] 3.1.5 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The decline in the bond market is mainly due to institutional behavior. It is necessary to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The port soybean inventory has decreased, while the oil - mill soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The market is concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans. The South American production outlook is optimistic. As long as there is no abnormal production cut in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [24][25] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on December 29. The coal price accelerated its decline this week. Considering the warm winter in December and January, the coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Champion Iron plans to acquire Rana Gruber. The iron - ore price has strong support. The decline risk of molten iron has slowed down, and the downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment may increase slightly. However, the market's expectation for the post - holiday demand is still cautious, and the iron - ore price is expected to maintain a shock market [29] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - end predicts the average copper price in 2026 to be $11,400/ton. The Khoemacau copper mine expansion project has been approved. The copper price has significantly corrected. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][32] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The import and export tariffs of zinc products in 2026 remain unchanged. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has continued to decline. The zinc price mainly fluctuates with the macro situation. In the medium - term, it is still in an upward - prone state. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [33][34] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Tianneng and Chaowei have launched sodium - ion batteries. The import tariffs of lead - acid batteries in some countries will be reduced in 2026. The lead price has limited upward space. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading strategy [35][36][37] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The social inventory of refined nickel remains high, and the market trading has become lighter. The RKAB quota and the pricing of cobalt at the mine end may support the nickel price. However, it is expected to return to a shock trend [39][40][41] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - reduction maintenance on some lithium - iron - phosphate production lines. The lithium - carbonate price may have short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [42][43][44] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The export tax rates of tin - related products will be adjusted in 2026. The inventory of tin has increased. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term price, and the long - term supply uncertainty persists [45][46][48] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude - oil inventory has slightly increased. The oil price has rebounded due to the geopolitical conflict. The supply is relatively abundant, and the global inventory pressure is large in the off - peak demand season [50][51] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social warehouses has decreased. In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to operate stably [52][53] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The urea price has fluctuated strongly recently. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand is mainly from the trading link. Do not chase the rise for now, and pay attention to relevant factors after the Spring Festival [54][55] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The styrene price has been running strongly recently. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [56][57][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Information - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 794, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 19.31; PB powder price is 797, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of -12.85; Mac powder price is 795, up 10 daily and 10 weekly, with an import profit of 49.12; Jinbuba powder price is 750, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 39.70; Mixed powder price is 740, up 6 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 9.76; Super special powder price is 675, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly, with an import profit of -10.58; Roy Hill powder price is 784, up 4 daily and 2 weekly, with an import profit of 41.96 [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 833, up 4 daily and 3 weekly, with an import profit of 2.39; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 761, up 4 daily and down 4 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 766, up 4 daily and down 4 weekly [1] - **Other Varieties**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 873, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 739, up 4 daily and 2 weekly; Karara concentrate powder price is 878, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 610, up 2 daily and down 2 weekly; Atlas powder price is 735, up 6 daily and 2 weekly [1] - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 982, up 6 daily and 6 weekly [1] Futures Market Information - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 price is 801.5, up 3.5 daily and 3.5 weekly, with a monthly spread of -40.5; i2605 price is 783.0, up 4.5 daily and 3.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 18.5; i2609 price is 761.0, up 4.0 daily and 3.0 weekly, with a monthly spread of 22.0 [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 price is 104.05, unchanged daily and down 0.83 weekly, with a monthly spread of -3.69; FE05 price is 102.37, unchanged daily and down 0.49 weekly, with a monthly spread of 1.68; FE09 price is 100.36, unchanged daily and down 0.43 weekly, with a monthly spread of 2.01 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report presents a weekly analysis of the black industry chain, covering various aspects such as market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different products including steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys [1][12][13]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to remain at a low level. The impact of short - term domestic macro - market on prices is limited [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a continuously loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - narrative is positive and the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, the price increase is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The fundamentals of the coal - coke market are still weak. Although the coal price has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two weeks, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The price rebound lacks upward support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side has relatively strong support, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of the futures main contracts and spot prices of various products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and scrap steel from December 19 to December 26, 2025 [8]. 3.2 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, the operating rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 78.32%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.94%. The average daily pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The steel market was mainly in a sideways consolidation state last week. Heavy pollution weather warnings in many places affected the supply side, but it was the off - season for demand, and the weak demand made it difficult for supply changes to drive price increases [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain at a low level [12]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, China's monetary and fiscal policies are in a period of active reserve, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. The real - end of the industrial chain is in a weak equilibrium stage, and prices maintain a narrow - range fluctuation trend. The inventory pressure on the steel product side has been continuously relieved, and the valuation of the industrial chain has rebounded. The strong spot price of iron ore supports the futures market, and the upcoming steel mill restocking cycle may support prices. In terms of supply, the weekly shipment of foreign mines decreased slightly, and the arrival volume remained at a medium - to - high level and was higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly, and the restocking demand is expected to be continuously released. In terms of inventory, the steel mill's imported inventory has increased, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Later Concerns**: Incremental macro - policies, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coal - Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. The coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable, and the steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, with further price cut expectations in the market. Coal mines reduced production at the end of the year, and coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but the overall market transaction was still weak, and the mine - end inventory continued to accumulate. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and the port supervision area inventory was at a relatively high level. The demand was temporarily stable, and the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling [16]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in the production rhythm of coal - coke - steel and changes in the clearance of imported coal [15]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economy maintains resilience, but there are still internal contradictions. In China, Beijing optimized the purchase - restriction policy, and the central bank carried out MLF operations to release a loose signal. The black metal futures market showed a weak sideways trend last week, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures increased slightly. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of manganese silicon increased, but the operating rate was still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years; the production and operating rate of silicon iron continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, while the demand for silicon iron decreased slightly, and both were significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In terms of inventory, the cost support for both manganese silicon and silicon iron was relatively strong [17]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. - **Later Concerns**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [17]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 1.8439 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0271 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3191 million tons; the apparent demand was 2.0268 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0596 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The long - process output was 1.5498 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.026 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3528 million tons; the short - process output was 0.2941 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.001 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0337 million tons. The long - process factory inventory was 1.1345 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.106 million tons; the short - process factory inventory was 0.2661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0032 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0787 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1881 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1598 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0052 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons; the total inventory was 4.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1829 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.3451 million tons [20][23][26][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0163 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.136 million tons; the apparent demand was 3.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0876 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0229 million tons. The social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.106 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6995 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.029 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0018 million tons; the total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.135 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7013 million tons [31][36]. - **Basis**: For rebar in Shanghai, the basis for January was 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 92 yuan/ton; for May, it was 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 77 yuan/ton; for October, it was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 67 yuan/ton. For rebar in Beijing, the basis for January was 133 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 51 yuan/ton; for May, it was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 17 yuan/ton; for October, it was 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis for January was - 18 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 66 yuan/ton; for May, it was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; for October, it was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [39][44][48]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: The total imported ore port inventory this week was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.956 million tons; the Australian ore inventory was 69.4126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6865 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.7914 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 56.6956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.255 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3277 million tons; the trade ore inventory was 103.6761 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6995 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.6771 million tons; the average daily port ore removal volume was 3.1506 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0161 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0915 million tons [51]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.1151 million tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 31.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88; the daily consumption was 2.8004 million tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0054 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0554 million tons; the daily pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0003 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0129 million tons [62]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the iron - making utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the profitability rate was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points [67]. - **Global Shipment (19 Ports)**: The total global shipment this week was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.277 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.027 million tons; the shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 27.846 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.407 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.707 million tons; the non - mainstream shipment was 7.159 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons [71]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 9.126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1215 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0772 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.922 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.085 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.029 million tons; the inventory of 4 ports was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0255 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0952 million tons [109]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 27.578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3023 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5825 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 10.397 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.034 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 0.8067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0017 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.031 million tons; the inventory of 5 ports was 2.995 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1