机构：国元国际 研究员：杨义琼 近期，新能源发电及生物质发电企业陆续公告收到可再生能源补贴情况，大部分企业前8 月累计收到的 补贴金额均大幅超过2024 年全年补贴金额，特别是8月收到较大补贴金额，预计包括了纳入第一批补贴 合规目录清单的项目。国补发放金额超预期，释放出存量补贴回款提速的积极信号。 大唐新能源截至6 月底补贴欠款余额约235 亿元，上半年回收1.6 亿，同比持平；7 月回收8.42 亿元，同 比增加7 亿多。基于公司补贴欠款余额规模较大，且之前没有进入第一批合规目录清单的项目，现在也 可以去相关政府部门申诉，公司正积极与相关主管部门沟通，预计后续也有部分项目有望进入第二批补 贴目录。而且之前已经计提应收账款减值拨备的金额，有部分冲回的可能性。因此，补贴回款提速，一 方面直接改善资产负债表和现金流，同时因为拨备冲回也可能增加当期收益。 近期，新能源发电及生物质发电企业陆续公告收到可再生能源补贴情况，大部分企业前8 月累计收到的 补贴金额均大幅超过2024 年全年补贴金额，特别是8 月收到较大补贴金额，预计包括了纳入第一批补贴 合规目录清单的项目。国补发放金额超预期，释放出存量补贴回款提速的积极信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal power industry is facing a peak in demand, with coal power generation expected to reach its maximum capacity this year, potentially capped at 5.55 trillion kilowatt-hours [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Power Generation Trends - In the first half of this year, national coal power generation has declined, with a reported generation of 294 million kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [1][5]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, coal power generation growth rates were around 1% in 2022 and 2024, compared to approximately 9% in 2021 and 7% in 2023 [1][5]. - The report indicates that the slowdown in overall electricity consumption growth and the rapid increase in renewable energy installations are primary factors contributing to the peak in coal power generation [3][4]. Group 2: Future Projections and Economic Factors - The report anticipates that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, electricity consumption growth will gradually converge with GDP growth rates, potentially even falling below GDP growth [3]. - It is projected that the increase in electricity consumption during the "15th Five-Year Plan" could still reach between 1.4 trillion to 1.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, which can be met by renewable energy installations [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Changes - The introduction of market reforms for renewable energy pricing has led to a decrease in the revenue for solar power, with prices dropping from approximately 0.355 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2022 to 0.325 yuan per kilowatt-hour in the first half of this year [6]. - Coal power plants are now required to participate more actively in market trading, with their pricing mechanisms still based on a "base price + fluctuations" model [7]. - The average coal consumption for power generation has significantly decreased, reaching 300.7 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour by June this year, a reduction of over 10 grams since 2016 [10]. Group 4: Role of Coal Power in the Energy Transition - As the penetration of renewable energy increases, coal power is evolving into a more flexible and regulatory power source to manage the intermittency and volatility of renewable energy [11]. - Experts suggest that the auxiliary service functions of coal power should be valued higher in the market, as the cost of integrating a larger share of low-cost renewable energy will require additional investments [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that coal power generation is expected to peak this year, with a maximum output of 5.55 trillion kilowatt-hours, primarily due to a slowdown in overall electricity demand and rapid growth in renewable energy capacity [1][2] - The report anticipates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, total electricity consumption will grow by approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, driven by factors such as rapid GDP growth and increased electrification [1] - The coal power industry is facing a demand peak, limiting future growth potential, while installed capacity continues to rise, which may further reduce profitability [3][4] Electricity Consumption and Growth - During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, electricity consumption is projected to increase by 1.4 to 1.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, which can be met by renewable energy sources [2] - The report estimates that from 2025 to 2035, non-coal power resources in China are expected to grow by over 300 million kilowatts annually, adequately meeting electricity demand [2] Coal Power Generation Trends - In the first half of this year, coal power generation has already shown a decline, with a reported 2.94 trillion kilowatt-hours generated, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [2] - The growth rate of coal power generation was around 9% in 2021, approximately 7% in 2023, and only about 1% in both 2022 and 2024 [2] Market Dynamics and Pricing - The coal power sector is transitioning from a primary energy source to a regulatory power source, with an increase in installed capacity despite limited growth in generation [4] - The average coal consumption for power generation has significantly decreased, reaching 300.7 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour, a reduction of over 10 grams since 2016 [9] - The introduction of market mechanisms for electricity pricing is leading to a decline in profitability for coal power plants, as they are now required to participate in market trading [5][6] Renewable Energy Impact - The marginal cost of renewable energy generation is approaching zero, which is expected to lower wholesale electricity prices, while the system will incur higher costs to accommodate the increased renewable capacity [11] - The report emphasizes the need for a pricing system that reflects the capabilities of different energy resources to ensure the sustainability of the energy market [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price raised to HKD 3.20 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 6.845 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.30%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.37% to RMB 1.688 billion [8][9]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to approximately 33% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [8][9]. - The company aims to add 3 GW of new installed capacity in 2025, with a target of reaching a total installed capacity of 21 GW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with wind power accounting for over 80% of this capacity [3][9]. - The acceleration of subsidy payments is expected to improve cash flow, with the company recovering RMB 8.42 billion in subsidies in July 2025, significantly higher than the previous year [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 2.358 billion, a 1.37% increase year-on-year, while the basic earnings per share were RMB 0.2046, with an interim dividend of RMB 0.03 per share [8][9]. - The company anticipates a stable increase in the dividend payout ratio, with a minimum of 30% of net profit being distributed as dividends from 2025 to 2027 [9]. Installed Capacity and Growth Targets - The company maintains its target of obtaining and commissioning 3 million kilowatts of new capacity in 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving 21 million kilowatts by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][9]. Cash Flow and Subsidy Recovery - The company has a substantial subsidy receivable balance of approximately RMB 23.5 billion as of June 2025, with expectations for accelerated recovery of these funds, which will enhance its cash flow and financial position [4][10]. Valuation and Market Position - The report highlights an expected improvement in industry cash flow due to faster subsidy disbursements, which is likely to enhance industry valuations. The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 times for 2025 and 9.4 times for 2026 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric and new energy sectors, including Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the electric and new energy sector is under pressure, but there was a sequential improvement in profitability in Q2 2025. The sector achieved a total revenue of 16,755.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with a net profit of 861.47 billion yuan, up 16.04% year-on-year [3][12]. - The new energy vehicle sector shows a positive trend, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 6,747.57 billion yuan, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 41.93% [4][16]. - The renewable energy generation sector faced challenges, with H1 2025 revenue of 9,646.02 billion yuan, down 1.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 360.66 billion yuan, down 4.60% [66]. Summary by Sections Electric and New Energy Sector Overview - The sector's overall revenue in H1 2025 was 16,755.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 861.47 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.49% and 16.04% respectively. Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 9,206.13 billion yuan, a 5.22% increase year-on-year and a 21.95% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][12][14]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - The new energy vehicle sector reported a revenue of 6,747.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 580.45 billion yuan, down 41.93%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 3,578.87 billion yuan, up 10.20% year-on-year, and net profit was 313.93 billion yuan, up 31.44% [4][16][23]. Renewable Energy Generation Sector - The renewable energy generation sector's revenue in H1 2025 was 9,646.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.96% year-on-year, with a net profit of 360.66 billion yuan, down 4.60%. The average gross margin for the sector was 14.74% [66][69]. Key Companies and Financial Projections - Key companies such as Ningde Times and Keda Li are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2025E at 14.96 yuan and 6.77 yuan respectively, indicating a favorable PE ratio [7][8].

Group 1: Market Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector increased by 7.39% this week, ranking first in terms of growth, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] - The solar index saw the largest increase of 14.51%, while the nuclear power index experienced the largest decline of 2.17% [1][2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In August 2025, new energy vehicle sales showed strong performance, with Li Auto achieving a record high of 57,066 units delivered, and a total of over 320,000 units delivered from January to August [3] - NIO delivered 31,305 units in August, marking a 49% month-on-month increase, while XPeng Motors also reached a historical high with 37,709 units delivered [3] - BYD maintained its market leadership with 373,626 units delivered in August and over 2.86 million units delivered from January to August [3] Group 3: Policy and Industry Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a plan to promote stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an annual revenue growth of over 5% in the photovoltaic sector from 2025 to 2026 [4] - The plan emphasizes the need to eliminate low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry and to guide local governments in orderly layout and capacity management [4] Group 4: Infrastructure Development - The Jinshang-Hubei ±800 kV UHVDC project has successfully completed a 168-hour trial run and is now operational, capable of transmitting 4 million kilowatts of electricity to Hubei [5][6] - Once fully operational, the project is expected to deliver approximately 40 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually [6]

Industry Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The data center industry in China is expected to reach a market size of 304.8 billion yuan and over 10 million standard racks by 2024, both achieving a year-on-year growth of over 20% [2][25] - The emergence of AI technologies, particularly large models, is driving significant demand for computing power, which is expected to enhance the growth of data centers [3][65] - The increasing electricity demand from data centers is projected to lead to a transformation towards greener computing solutions [4][111] Summary by Sections 1. Progress of China's Data Center Industry - The development of China's data center industry has evolved through four stages, with computing power becoming the driving force in the digital economy since 2020 [9][18] - The market is characterized by a significant regional distribution, with the "East Data West Computing" initiative promoting a balanced development across eight hubs and ten clusters [32][38] 2. AI's Impact on Data Center Demand - The launch of DeepSeek in January 2025 is expected to significantly increase the rack utilization rate in third-party data centers [3][79] - The average rack utilization rate in China was 56.4% by the end of 2023, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [56] - The global demand for computing power is projected to grow at a rate exceeding 50% annually, with AI applications driving this growth [65][71] 3. Electricity Demand and Green Transformation - Data centers' electricity costs typically account for over 50% of their total operating costs, with some internet clients seeing this figure rise to 70-80% [95] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will double from 415 TWh in 2024 to approximately 945 TWh by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 15% [101] - By 2030, China's data center electricity demand is expected to reach between 300 billion and 700 billion kWh, representing 2.3% to 5.3% of the total electricity consumption [108][109]

Group 1: Energy Storage Market - The domestic new energy storage project procurement scale reached 56.1GW/213.8GWh from January to July 2025, with actual storage system demand at 53.1GW/208.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 181% [1][5] - The average prices of square lithium iron phosphate storage cells (100Ah, 280Ah, 314Ah) as of September 5, 2025, were 0.370, 0.298, and 0.298 yuan/Wh respectively, showing a slight increase [1][4] - The overseas storage orders signed by Chinese companies exceeded 160GWh from January to June 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 220.28% [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Subsidies - The renewable energy subsidies distributed from January to August 2025 significantly exceeded expectations, with the amount received in August alone accounting for approximately 70% of the total subsidies for the first eight months [2][3] - The subsidies cover both renewable energy generation and biomass power generation enterprises, aligning with the renewable energy fund's coverage [2] Group 3: Financial Improvement for Companies - The significant recovery of accounts receivable is expected to improve cash flow and restore company valuations, addressing previous market concerns regarding declining electricity prices and accounts receivable risks [3] - Companies such as Datang New Energy, China Power, and Longyuan Power are recommended based on the potential for improved cash flow from accounts receivable recovery [3] Group 4: Capacity Utilization and Market Outlook - Companies like CATL reported a battery system capacity utilization rate of 89.86% in the 2025 mid-year report, a notable increase from previous periods [5] - The capital market is expected to recover from previous pessimistic expectations regarding storage demand, leading to potential dual upgrades in performance expectations and valuation levels for storage-related stocks [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the domestic financial market, with significant movements in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, indicating a positive market sentiment [2][7] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in specific sectors, particularly in new energy and technology, driven by recent innovations and government policies [5][7] Macro Economic Updates - As of the end of August, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $332.22 billion, an increase of $29.9 billion from the end of July [4] - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the tenth consecutive month, with foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3.3 trillion [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to lower the subscription fee rate for stock mutual funds, with the upper limit reduced to 0.8% [4] Industry Developments - Huawei has launched a new foldable smartphone, which is expected to drive growth in the foldable screen smartphone sector, with related stocks such as Jingyan Technology and Visionox showing potential [5] - The application scenarios for digital RMB are expanding, presenting investment opportunities in the related industry chain, with stocks like Jingbeifang and Zhongke Jincai highlighted [5] - The State Council has issued 20 measures to unleash the potential of sports consumption, indicating a favorable outlook for the sports sector, with stocks like Guangdong Media and Gongchuang Turf expected to benefit [5] Company Focus - Runhe Materials plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 3% through its controlling shareholder and concerted parties [6] - Tianji Co. has obtained patent authorization for lithium sulfide materials and their preparation methods and applications [6] - Gansu Energy's Changle Company has officially put its 2×1000 MW coal-fired unit into commercial operation [6] - Jidian Co. has received a total of 913 million yuan in renewable energy subsidy funds from the state [6] Market Review and Outlook - On September 5, the market experienced a rally, with the ChiNext Index leading gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3800-point level [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - The report notes that the overall valuation of the A-share market is at a reasonable level, with expectations for positive earnings growth in the second half of the year [7] - The report suggests focusing on growth styles and structural opportunities in the current market environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total operating revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to lower electricity prices despite an increase in installed capacity and generation output [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 14.736 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.19% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year [1][4]. - Operating costs increased by 16.77% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 6.934 billion yuan, which represents a decline of 17.30% [4]. Installed Capacity and Generation - The company added 2.1807 million kilowatts of new installed capacity, bringing the total to 49.9366 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [2]. - Wind power installed capacity reached 22.9702 million kilowatts, up 17.05% year-on-year, while solar power installed capacity was 25.0955 million kilowatts, an increase of 25.86% [2]. - Despite the increase in capacity, the utilization hours for wind and solar power decreased, with wind utilization hours at 1,146 hours (down 7.80%) and solar utilization hours at 597 hours (down 13.85%) [2]. Generation Output - The company achieved a total generation output of 39.314 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 8.85% [2]. - Wind power generation was 25.061 billion kilowatt-hours (up 8.69%), and solar power generation was 13.911 billion kilowatt-hours (up 10.25%) [2]. Profitability and Investment Income - The company managed to optimize costs, with management expenses down 10.42% and financial expenses down 2.65% [4]. - Investment income reached 0.915 billion yuan, a significant increase of 167.32% year-on-year, helping to alleviate performance pressure [4]. - The net profit for the second quarter was 1.368 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.41% year-on-year, reflecting the challenges in operational performance [4]. Future Outlook - The company has a substantial pipeline of projects, with 13.8178 million kilowatts still under construction as of the end of the first half of 2025 [5]. - Improved weather conditions for wind and solar resources are expected to lead to a marginal recovery in operational performance [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.22 yuan, 0.23 yuan, and 0.24 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.35, 18.97, and 17.45 [5].