1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the current major contradiction lies in the external market. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has reignited inflation concerns. Although the panic has been released, the stock index will gradually return to the domestic fundamentals, but geopolitical uncertainties remain. During the performance disclosure period, market sentiment is expected to be cautious. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and be more optimistic about IF and IC with stronger profit certainty and more relevance to new - quality productivity [12]. - For treasury bonds, inflation concerns have suppressed the bond market. The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation concerns. The market is affected by factors such as export data and regulatory policies. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening strategy, and there may be a small - scale rebound in the bond market next week [36][51][93]. - For shipping indices, the shipping market is affected by the Middle East situation. Although the supply of container shipping capacity is high, the slowdown of the Red Sea re - navigation plan can relieve the pressure. The short - term geopolitical conflict may cause the index to strengthen, but it may also experience a significant correction. It is advisable to short the off - season contracts near the delivery period and go long on the peak - season contracts [111]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Stock Index Market Review - At the beginning of the year, the A - share market had a "good start" due to factors such as the appreciation of the RMB and the rise of the Hong Kong stock market. However, regulatory measures to cool down the market led to a weakening of market sentiment. Subsequently, factors such as the nomination of the next Fed chairman, the US - Iran conflict, and the two sessions affected the market. From March 9th to 13th, the A - share market showed a shrinking and consolidating pattern, with different performances among major indices [7][8][9]. - The current major contradiction is the external market. The US - Iran conflict has escalated, and inflation concerns have resurfaced. Domestically, there are no unexpected policies from the two sessions. The trading volume in the two markets has shrunk, and the stock index will gradually return to the domestic fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and be more optimistic about IF and IC during the performance disclosure period [12]. 成交持仓分析 - This week, the trading volume of stock index futures has shrunk. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 105,300, 44,500, 152,200, and 202,100 lots respectively, with changes of - 23,200, - 16,000, - 38,900, and - 29,800 lots compared with last week. - The positions of stock index futures have generally decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 274,000, 106,700, 296,300, and 377,400 lots respectively, with changes of - 8,300, - 4,400, - 13,400, and - 8,700 lots compared with last week [13]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - **基差**: This week, the basis has narrowed. The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are - 11.14, 0.15, - 26.0, and - 27.29 points respectively, with a narrowing of 3.30, 2.85, 11.73, and 9.77 points compared with last week. The annualized basis rates of the corresponding contracts are - 12.27%, 0.27%, - 16.23%, and - 17.09% respectively [18]. - **跨期价差**: As of March 13th, the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are all negative. The spreads of IF and IH have narrowed, while those of IC and IM have widened. The spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts are also negative, with different changes in each variety [20][21]. - **跨品种价差**: The performance of large - cap stocks is relatively better, especially the CSI 300 index. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 are at different historical percentile levels, with corresponding changes [24]. 行业板块概况 - **CSI 300 and CSI 500 sub - industry trends**: In the CSI 300, the utility, energy, and industrial sectors led the rise, while the materials, real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. In the CSI 500, the utility, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the raw materials, information, and optional sectors led the decline [27]. - **First - level industry gains and losses**: The coal, power equipment, and building decoration sectors led the rise, while the national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors led the decline [29]. 估值比较 As of March 13th, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 14.2607, 11.5251, 37.6349, and 50.5938 times respectively, and are at the 86.38%, 80.09%, 87.98%, and 83.62% percentile levels in the past ten years [31]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury bond futures market**: Inflation concerns have suppressed the bond market. The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation concerns. The export data has exceeded expectations, and regulatory policies have also affected the market. The performance of futures is weaker than that of spot bonds, and there is no positive arbitrage space for each contract. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening strategy [36][39][51]. - **Bond spot market**: This week, most of the spot yields of treasury bonds have increased. The yields of ultra - long - term bonds have risen significantly. The yields of US treasury bonds have also increased across the board [65]. - **Funding situation**: At the beginning of the month, the funding pressure is not large, and the central bank has mainly carried out net repurchases. As the tax period approaches, the funding situation has tightened marginally [73][78]. - **Interest rate derivatives**: This week, the yields of most swap varieties have declined, and the liquidity expectation is stable [85]. Market Analysis - **Recent market logic**: The PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and was weaker than expected. However, the high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and the overseas export demand was still strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The short - term situation in the US - Iran is unclear, which has increased inflation expectations and brought liquidity shocks. It is necessary to pay attention to the upcoming economic data [88]. - **This week's fundamental situation**: The inflation and import - export data in February and January - February have exceeded expectations, partly due to the Spring Festival misalignment. The inflation has improved significantly, and the PPI may turn positive. The export has shown strong resilience, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance this year [89][90]. - **Next week's bond market outlook**: The self - regulatory management of inter - bank deposits may release a batch of allocation demand. The tax - period disturbance and the release of January - February economic data next week may be short - term negative factors, and there may be a small - scale rebound [93]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar Next week, important economic data such as China's January - February economic data and the Fed's interest - rate decision will be released, and the tax - filing deadline in March will also be reached [95]. Shipping Index Market Review The shipping index has fluctuated significantly due to the rapid change in the Middle East situation. The index adjusted at the beginning of the week but then recovered. The container shipping futures on the European route have all risen this week, with the largest increases in the near - month contracts of May and June [96]. 集运市场情况 - **Spot market**: The transportation demand on the European route has been flat and not significantly affected by the Middle East situation, but the supply - chain shock has pushed up the freight rate. The quotes for April have been significantly increased, but the cargo volume is still light [103]. - **Supply - demand fundamentals of container shipping**: In terms of supply, the container shipping capacity in Europe in March is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential capacity is also increasing. The actual capacity has decreased slightly in March but will increase in April. The Red Sea re - navigation plan has been postponed, which can relieve the pressure on the European route. In terms of demand, the overseas demand is still strong, but the inflation in Europe may lead to a weakening of macro - demand [107][108]. Market Outlook The container shipping market is still in the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the Red Sea re - navigation plan has been postponed, the supply of container shipping capacity is still high. The short - term geopolitical conflict may cause the index to strengthen, but it may also experience a significant correction. It is advisable to short the off - season contracts near the delivery period and go long on the peak - season contracts [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily data on the passage and freight rates in the Strait of Hormuz, including the number of vessels passing through, and the freight rates of VLCC, refined oil, and container shipping [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strait Passage - On March 12, 3 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz (1 entering and 2 exiting), a decrease of 6 vessels compared to the previous day. As of 13:00 on March 13, 1 liquid bulk carrier operated by Al Rafedain Marine Services was exiting the strait [2]. VLCC Daily Freight Rates - On March 12, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were $10.41 and $9.2 per barrel respectively, with daily decreases of 25.3% and 17.3% [2]. Refined Oil Daily Freight Rates - On March 12, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to $6.49 and $11.1 per barrel respectively, with rebounds of 2.7% and 2.8% [2]. Container Shipping Daily Freight Rates - As of 11:00 on March 13, the TCJ Tianjin + Persian Gulf basic port freight rate index was updated to 1,726.87 points, a环比 increase of 83.2%. The freight rate was still missing, possibly due to short - term shipping stagnation. The freight rate from Tianjin to European basic ports was $2,877 per FEU, with the index unchanged from the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the western and eastern Mediterranean basic ports were $3,735.22 and $4,091.56 per FEU respectively, with the index unchanged [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) H-shares, with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Core Insights - The report discusses how recent events in Iran are reshaping the tanker and natural gas transportation markets, with over 90 investors participating in the expert conference [1] - The company is expected to sustain six-figure freight earnings, supported by tightening fleet supply, which is likely to continue driving profitability [1] - The long-term charter market indicates that tanker earnings may remain structurally high over the next 12 months, despite a potential slowdown in spot rates [1] Market Dynamics - Safety concerns have led vessels originally scheduled to load in the Persian Gulf to avoid the area, tightening the effective tanker fleet supply [1] - There is a significant potential increase in demand for alternative crude oil transportation from regions like the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to Asia, which requires more vessels compared to the Persian Gulf [1] - Even with an immediate ceasefire, restoring normal shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take time due to the need for shipowners, insurers, and charterers to rebuild confidence [1] Freight Rates - Current daily costs for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) range from USD 110,000 to USD 140,000 [1] - For transporting 1 million barrels of oil equivalent, vessels from the U.S. Gulf to Asia require over four times the number of vessels compared to those from the Persian Gulf [1] - The tightening market has also affected other vessel types, with daily costs for Aframax and Suezmax vessels rising to approximately USD 280,000 and over USD 450,000, respectively [1] - Even if geopolitical tensions ease, normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may take several weeks to potentially two to three months to resume [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is expected to persist longer than anticipated, impacting global supply chains and creating short-term risks for Chinese assets, while potentially benefiting them in the medium to long term [2][3][4]. Group 1: Conflict Analysis - The Israel-Iran conflict has lasted for 14 days as of February 28, with Iran continuing its aggressive stance and effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The U.S. administration, led by Trump, is recognizing the disproportionate costs and benefits of deep involvement in the conflict, with domestic political interests influencing their strategy [2]. - The probability of a ceasefire before April 30 is now below 50%, indicating a high likelihood of continued conflict [2]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Impact - The conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities in global supply chains, particularly the reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas transportation [3]. - Even if the conflict ceases, the perception of risk in global energy supply chains will likely lead to a permanent increase in risk pricing and a diversification of energy sources [3]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Assets - In the short term, the conflict may cause fluctuations in risk appetite and market sentiment, but China's robust energy reserves and manufacturing capabilities mitigate the fundamental economic impact [3]. - The potential for adjustments in overvalued sectors exists, but significant declines in the market are not anticipated due to the presence of undervalued and stable companies [3]. - In the long term, China's strong foreign exchange reserves, stable sovereign credit, and advanced manufacturing and renewable energy technologies position it as a safe haven asset amid global geopolitical turmoil, likely increasing global demand for RMB assets [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of the market is high, and attention should be paid to the freight rate correction in the second half of March [1]. - For the EC2604 contract approaching delivery, investors are advised to closely follow the spot market, operate flexibly, and consider the profit - loss ratio [7]. - The expectations for the contracts in June, July, and August (relatively peak seasons) are strong, but the actual freight rates are still uncertain. Investors need to respond flexibly [8]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes 1405/2250 for WEEK13; HPL's quotes for the second half of March range from 2135 - 3555 dollars/FEU, and 2895/4855 for the first half of April [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Iran's new supreme leader's speech indicates the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and threats to attack US military bases if they are not withdrawn [4]. - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships exceeds 40 [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of March is 320,700 TEU, and 324,900 TEU in April. There are 8 blank sailings in March and 2 TBNs in April [5]. - **Contract Situation**: The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery. Shipping companies are trying to support prices in the off - season. Most shipping companies have announced emergency fuel surcharges, which may increase the valuation of near - month contracts. The transfer of ships from the Middle East to the European route increases supply pressure and may affect European freight rates [6]. - **Peak - Season Contracts**: The contracts for June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand from Asia to Europe [8]. - **Market Data**: As of March 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 58,270 lots, and the daily trading volume is 91,865 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, and the SCFI and SCFIS prices on different routes are also given [9]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: None [10]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Emphasize the tail risk of the Iran situation, which has a significant impact on the prices of crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up the prices of oil - chemical and oilseed products, while also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The US economy shows signs of slowdown, and China's economic data shows some positive trends [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation of the US and Israel, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply [1] - The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, disrupted the production and supply chain, and severely blocked the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven up oil - chemical and oilseed products and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts if necessary [1][6] Domestic Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan (an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year), and a general public budget expenditure scale of 30 trillion yuan for the first time (an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year). An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. Rising inflation reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts and increases the risk of recession [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Japan will release about 80 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, Germany will release 2.4 million tons of reserves, and the US will start releasing SPR next week [3][6] - The conflict has led to the largest - ever supply disruption, with a daily reduction of 8 million barrels in global oil supply this month and a more than 90% drop in the transit flow of the Strait of Hormuz [3][6] - Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol, and the oilseed products in the agricultural sector are also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2025 performance is below expectations, primarily due to lower than anticipated TCE rates, despite achieving better pricing than industry averages [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of $2.081 billion in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 19% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $58 million, corresponding to a basic earnings per share of 1.14 cents, down 56% year-on-year [1] - The company’s cash dividend for 2025 was $50.5 million, representing 100% of net profit after excluding ship sale proceeds [1] Dividend Policy - The company revised its dividend policy for 2026 to distribute at least 50% of net profit after excluding ship sale proceeds, with a potential increase to 100% if net cash is achieved by year-end - Based on current profit assumptions, the dividend yield for 2026 could be 4.3% or 8.6% depending on the payout ratio [1] Market Trends - Limited new supply is expected, with a positive outlook for small vessel supply-demand dynamics as the company continues to optimize its fleet structure - As of March 2026, the order book for large and small vessels stands at 11.7% and 8.5% respectively, with older vessels accounting for 13% and 14% of capacity [1] - The company announced the acquisition of four new small vessels, expected to be delivered in the first half of 2028, enhancing long-term competitiveness [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2026 remains at $176 million, with a new forecast of $180 million for 2027 - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11.9 for 2026 and 11.5 for 2027 - The target price has been raised by 41.67% to HKD 3.4 per share, reflecting a 12.9 P/E for 2026 and 12.5 for 2027, indicating an upside potential of 8.63% from the current price [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a defensive investment strategy, favoring high-margin public and rail infrastructure, and light asset freight forwarding companies while shorting airport and container shipping stocks [1][6]. Core Insights - The Middle East situation has led to significant disruptions in energy flows, with low-sulfur fuel oil prices doubling and a 20% pricing pressure on airlines and shipping companies [1][2]. - The oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically averages around 21 million barrels per day, has nearly stopped, creating a substantial supply gap [1][2]. - European jet fuel inventories are critically low, sufficient for only two weeks of consumption, with 50%-66% of supply reliant on imports [1][2]. - The Asia-Europe air cargo routes are heavily impacted, with a potential 50% reduction in cargo capacity due to the loss of passenger bellyhold space, leading to a 15% global cargo impact [1][5]. - China's exports are projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in early 2026, driven by strong demand in semiconductors and data center equipment [1][5]. Summary by Sections Energy Flow Impact - The report highlights that the current geopolitical situation has caused a doubling in prices for low-sulfur fuel oil and significant increases in jet fuel crack spreads in Western Europe, leading to a 20% price increase pressure on airlines and shipping companies [1][2]. - The oil tanker transport activity through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ceased, with Saudi Arabia's additional capacity only at 3 million barrels per day [1][2]. Global Air Travel Demand - Outside the Middle East, global air travel demand remains stable, with no significant changes observed in flight schedules on transatlantic routes [3]. - The number of flights in the Middle East has decreased significantly, with a peak drop of about 80%, although it has since recovered to about half of the previous levels [3]. Freight and Trade Demand - The report indicates that the disruption in passenger capacity has led to a significant reduction in air cargo capacity, particularly affecting Asia-Europe routes, with a potential 50% decrease in capacity [5]. - The report anticipates a seasonal rebound in demand post-Chinese New Year, supported by strong demand in specific sectors like semiconductors [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a defensive investment strategy, emphasizing high-margin infrastructure assets and light asset freight forwarding companies, while advising against investments in airport stocks and container shipping [6][7]. - The report expresses a bearish outlook on container shipping companies due to limited supply impacts and direct negative demand effects from reduced Middle Eastern shipping routes [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is mainly influenced by the Middle - East geopolitical crisis. The threat of Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant reduction in the oil supply growth forecast by the IEA, causing a more than 10% surge in overnight oil prices. Geopolitical risks are spreading from the energy sector to a broader commodity supply chain, increasing global inflation uncertainty [1]. - As the earnings reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed in March, the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". Stocks without performance support may continue to be weak, while sectors benefiting from policies and with improved performance may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index is expected to return to an upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Key News on the Day 3.1.1. International News On March 12, Iran's new supreme leader threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit a US - owned oil tanker. These events caused short - term price changes in oil, gold, and the US dollar index [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News On March 12, the central bank held a symposium, stating that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It also conducted a 245 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News On March 12, multiple institutions issued information on the security risks and standard construction of OpenClaw/AI agents. They provided suggestions for risk prevention and started the standard - setting work [7][8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 decreased by 1.52%, the FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 8.67%, London gold decreased by 2.02%, London silver decreased by 2.27%, LME increased by 2.12%, LME copper decreased by 0.83%, LME zinc increased by 0.03%, LME nickel increased by 0.23%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.48%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.05%, CBOT soybeans increased by 1.10%, CBOT PH SH SES increased by 1.30%, CBOT triangular cover continuous remained unchanged, and CBOT corn increased by 1.12% [9]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The US stock market declined, and the previous trading day's stock index also fell. The coal sector led the rise, while the national defense and military industry sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.397 billion yuan on March 10. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's net reverse repurchase injection was 1.5 billion yuan. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, global risk - aversion sentiment increased, and inflation expectations rose. The short - term Treasury bond futures prices are supported, while the long - term ones are under pressure [12][13]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil continued to rise at night. Trump stated that the US military action against Iran would not end this week. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week, with commercial crude oil inventories decreasing by 1.7 million barrels [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose slightly at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also decreased. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 2.6 - 2.7 million tons [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber fluctuated on Thursday. It is in the low - production season, with domestic and Thai production areas in a state of suspension. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand for all - steel tires is stable, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate upward [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rise and then fall on Thursday. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from some suppliers were adjusted. The increase in the Middle - East situation has a positive impact on chemicals, and the market sentiment is volatile. Future device operation needs to be monitored [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rose and then fell. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased, while that of soda ash production enterprises also decreased. The glass inventory needs further digestion, and the soda ash industry has inventory pressure [19]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated and declined. The US February CPI was in line with expectations, and the oil - price impact was not reflected. The US - Iran conflict has led to rising inflation expectations and a downward revision of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing precious - metal performance. In the long run, the price of precious metals will continue to rise [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price decreased by 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The smelting output is still growing. The copper price may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price decreased by 0.25% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the smelting output is increasing. The galvanized sheet inventory is high, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose by 0.04% at night. The US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of overseas primary aluminum supply. The Strait of Hormuz blockage may cause a regional supply crisis. In the long run, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand support the aluminum price [23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The output of five major steel products increased, and the inventory also increased, but the increase rate narrowed. The apparent demand increased significantly. After the end of environmental protection restrictions, the iron - water output is expected to rise, driving up the demand for coking coal and coke [24][25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and strengthened at night. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is slower than the same period. The USDA report is neutral - positive, and the US soybean futures price has rebounded. The increase in shipping costs and the rumor of state - reserve replenishment have supported the domestic meal price, but the price increase is limited in the medium term due to sufficient supply [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil production, export, and inventory in Malaysia in February changed. The weak export led to a slower - than - expected inventory reduction. The rise in oil prices has driven up the vegetable - oil futures price, and the short - term price fluctuation is expected to be large [27]. - **Hogs**: The national average hog price was 10.04 yuan/kg, slightly down. The market is in a narrow - range shock, with regional differences. The supply of standard hogs is sufficient, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The hog price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [28]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract oscillated upward. The Iran situation may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 sugar - crushing season. The domestic sugar price is boosted by the overseas market, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [29]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract oscillated upward. The adjustment of the market due to the Middle - East situation may be over, and the cotton price is expected to rise in the long - term due to tight supply [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose by 3.07%. Maersk's new cabin price to Rotterdam remained at $2200 for large containers, indicating the difficulty of maintaining high prices in the off - season. MSC slightly increased the price to $2740. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current 04 contract corresponds to a freight rate of $2885, with a basis of -$300, which has priced in short - term risk premiums mainly due to rising fuel costs, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Shipping companies may issue price increase notices for April. Due to the repeated geopolitical sentiment, the short - term market is expected to remain strong but with large fluctuations. A 6 - 7 reverse spread can be arranged, but attention should be paid to the poor liquidity of the 07 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 2020.1, up 1.38%, with a basis of -474.6, trading volume of 61827, and open interest of 27408 with a change of -1194 [2] - EC2605: Yesterday's closing price was 2206.4, up 7.63%, with a basis of -660.9, trading volume of 2824, and open interest of 2247 with a change of 24 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 2436.9, up 4.61%, with a basis of -891.4, trading volume of 18920, and open interest of 14972 with a change of -643 [2] - EC2607: Yesterday's closing price was 2506.0, up 2.92%, with a basis of -960.5, trading volume of 496, and open interest of 806 with a change of 1 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 2379.0, up 3.64%, with a basis of -833.5, trading volume of 2043, and open interest of 3138 with a change of 6 [2] - EC2609: Yesterday's closing price was 1760.0, up 4.51%, with a basis of -214.5, trading volume of 254, and open interest of ୧୦୫ with a change of 26 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1580.4, up 2.89%, with a basis of -34.9, trading volume of 2339, and open interest of 8688 with a change of -456 [2] - EC2612: Yesterday's closing price was 1875.0, up 1.99%, with a basis of -329.5, trading volume of 162, and open interest of 403 with a change of 17 [2] Month - spread Information - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's value was -416.8, with a daily change of -80.1 and a weekly change of -147.6 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's value was -186.3, with a daily change of -129.0 and a weekly change of -0.2 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's value was 856.5, with a daily change of 63.1 and a weekly change of 154.1 [2] Spot Index Information - Spot (European Line): On March 9, 2026, the value was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): On March 6, 2026, it was $1452/TEU, up 2.25% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - ONE adjusted prices. Week 12 was reported at $2400 (equivalent to 1680 points on the disk), and week 13 was $2700 (equivalent to 1890 points on the disk). YML's week 13 price was adjusted to $2700 due to rising fuel costs. The expected trading center in the second half of the month is $2400, and the FAK quote (the part included in the index) is expected to be around $2600, equivalent to 1820 points on the disk [3] Related News - CMA CGM reopened all import bookings to Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE [4]