Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the resumption of alumina production will increase, and warehouse receipts will gradually accumulate, further strengthening the expectation of oversupply. Due to the rainy season in Guinea and the domestic parade period, there are strong disturbance factors on the ore side. Alumina should be mainly shorted on rallies, but chasing the decline is not recommended. - Before the "Golden September" peak season, the stocking speed of downstream sectors has started quickly. There is a possibility of exceeding expectations in the demand for electrolytic aluminum during the peak - season cycle, and the profits of the aluminum industry will continue to shift from the upstream to the downstream. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum. - Due to the peak - season mismatch of aluminum alloy, there is room for the spread of far - month contracts to continue to repair. Opportunities such as the widening of the AL2510 - AO2510 spread and the narrowing of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread can be tracked. Attention should be paid to the pace of the US interest - rate cut and the confirmation or falsification of strong demand. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price - In August, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 29th, the main contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 5.8%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20740 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 1.1%. The aluminum alloy futures also fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20350 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 6%. [5][6] 3.2 Spread - In August, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 190 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum's discount widened from 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. [5][9] 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in August, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina will increase to 91.09 million tons, with a production of 7.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly increased to 43.9 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The molten - aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73.7%. [3][5] 3.4 Demand - As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the processing end has started to recover steadily. In August, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 59.7%, an increase of 1.04% compared with July. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips increased by 2.3% to 65.6%, the operating rate of aluminum foils increased by 0.24% to 69.7%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.63% to 50.63%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.19% to 62.95%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.21% to 53.15%. [3][5] 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in August, alumina inventories increased by 82,200 tons to 88,200 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventories increased by 8,815 tons to 124,605 tons; LME inventories increased by 20,800 tons to 481,150 tons. In terms of social inventories, alumina monthly inventories increased by 15,000 tons to 63,000 tons; aluminum ingot monthly inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 620,000 tons; aluminum rod monthly inventories decreased by 13,000 tons to 134,000 tons. [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China Aluminum (601600)(02600) achieved a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with earnings per share of 0.412 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, expecting regular net profits to remain strong at 13.3 billion RMB in 2025 and 14 billion RMB in 2026 [1] - The free cash flow yield for the next two years is projected to reach 22% [1] Price Forecasts - The target price for China Aluminum's H-shares has been increased from 6.3 HKD to 7.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Margin Adjustments - The forecast for alumina gross margins has been raised by 30% to 70% for the next two years, reflecting higher average selling prices achieved in the first half of the year [1] - However, due to expected acceleration in imports from Guinea, the profit forecast for self-supplied bauxite alumina has been lowered, with import bauxite prices adjusted down from 90 USD per ton to 75 USD per ton for the second half of this year through 2026 [1] - The alumina production forecast for 2026 has been increased by 9%, reflecting the full production of the Guangxi Huasheng project [1] - The aluminum gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026 have been reduced by 12% to 18%, reflecting higher operating costs observed in the first half of the year, with unit operating cost estimates raised by 5% to 6% [1]

Group 1 - The company Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) announced that as of August 31, 2025, it has repurchased a total of 69,636,189 shares through centralized bidding, accounting for approximately 0.60% of the total share capital [1] - The highest repurchase price was 4.12 CNY per share, while the lowest was 3.24 CNY per share [1] - The total amount of funds used for the repurchase was 267,965,488.74 CNY (excluding transaction fees) [1]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a weak trend, opening at $2614 per ton and currently at $2611 per ton, with a decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2619 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2608.5 per ton [1] - On August 29, LME aluminum futures opened at $2607.5, peaked at $2622.0, and closed at $2618.5, reflecting a change of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - As of August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,629 tons, an increase of 1,354 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.93, with an import loss of -1,288.51 yuan per ton, slightly improved from -1,318.71 yuan per ton the previous day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 481,050 tons, also down by 100 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price raised from HKD 20.6 to HKD 27, driven by strong performance in H1 2025 and a new share buyback plan that boosts market confidence [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, China Hongqiao achieved a net profit of RMB 12.3 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, aligning with previous profit forecasts; core net profit, excluding convertible bond fair value losses, reached RMB 14.9 billion, up 42% year-on-year [1][2]. - Revenue and profit growth were observed across all three core business segments: - Aluminum alloy products (64% of H1 revenue) generated RMB 51.9 billion, a 5% increase, with sales up 2.4% to 2.91 million tons and average selling price (ASP) up 2.7% to RMB 17,853/ton [2]. - Alumina business (26% of H1 revenue) saw revenue surge 28% to RMB 20.7 billion, with sales up 10% to 6.37 million tons and ASP up 5% to RMB 3,243/ton [2]. - Aluminum processing products (10% of H1 revenue) reported a 6.5% revenue increase to RMB 8 billion, with sales up 3.4% to 392,000 tons and ASP up 2.9% to RMB 20,615/ton [2]. Share Buyback and Market Confidence - The company did not declare an interim dividend this year, which surprised the market; however, it announced a new share buyback plan with a minimum investment of HKD 3 billion, representing 1.4% of total shares and 4.5% of free float, valid until May 2026 [2][3]. - The buyback reflects management's confidence in the company's future and aims to offset potential dilution from convertible bonds [3]. Future Outlook - China Hongqiao's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 12%-14% due to tight supply in the aluminum industry and expected declines in raw material prices, particularly coal [3]. - The company is projected to benefit from a 3% profit increase for every 1% rise in aluminum prices and a 0.5% profit increase for every 1% drop in coal prices, indicating a favorable cost and pricing environment [3]. Valuation - The target price of HKD 27 is based on a forward P/E ratio of 8.6 times for 2026, reflecting a premium for improved financial health and the ongoing industry upcycle [3]. - Despite recent stock price increases, the estimated dividend yield could reach 7.9% assuming a 60% payout ratio, indicating continued valuation attractiveness [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on alumina [2] Core Viewpoints - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Category | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3138 | 3036 | -102 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3263 | 3222 | -41 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 134 | 237 | 103 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 370 | 362 | -8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -24.60 | 0.10 | 24.7 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 77746 | 97829 | 20083 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] Market Outlook - Last week, both domestic and imported ores were relatively stable. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments. Currently, the bauxite inventory at domestic ports is sufficient, and the supply of imported ore in the short term is expected to be stable [2][7] - On the supply side, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South has not resumed, and new roasting capacity entered maintenance last week, with a slight decline in the operating capacity [2][7] - On the consumption side, when the alumina price declined, electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased their spot replenishment purchases slightly, but due to the stable operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, the increase in demand was limited [2][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Industry News - According to Aladdin (ALD) research, the freight rate of Cape-type ships on the Guinea-China route increased significantly this week, rising by 1.5 US dollars/ton to 25 US dollars/ton [8] - The Natural Resources Department of Shanxi Province recently released the review result announcement of the preliminary design of the 300,000-ton/year underground mining expansion project of Loufan Bauxite Mine of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, which aims to increase the current production scale from 240,000 tons/year to 300,000 tons/year [8] - On August 22, 2025, Emirates Global Aluminium announced that its subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), would completely terminate all activities in Guinea due to the illegal expropriation of its assets by the Republic of Guinea [8] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month-to-month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost and profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][13][15][18][20][23]

Group 1: Innovation New Materials - The company is actively promoting a globalization strategy, planning to invest up to $209 million in the Saudi Red Sea aluminum industry chain project by 2025, with an expected annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 500,000 tons of aluminum processing products [1] - As of July 2025, the company has completed ODI filing, with a 43.93% year-on-year increase in profile sales to 77,200 tons and a 13.83% increase in aluminum rod and cable sales to 501,300 tons in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company is the largest producer of aluminum alloy cable materials in China, with over 70% of the ultra-high voltage wires for the national West-East Power Transmission project sourced from its products [1] Group 2: Chip Source Micro - The company expects to exceed its annual order signing target for front-end chemical cleaning products, with major clients already approved for bulk orders of high-end machines [2] - The new generation of front-end coating and developing machines is progressing well, with client validation expected in the second half of the year and performance to be showcased next year [2] - The company anticipates a high expense ratio in 2025 due to increased R&D investments, with a gradual decrease expected from 2026 as revenue releases and expense controls take effect [2] Group 3: Sanhua Intelligent Control - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.91%, and a net profit of 2.11 billion yuan, up 39.31% year-on-year [3] - The revenue from the refrigeration and air conditioning components business reached 10.389 billion yuan, growing by 25.49% due to rising global temperature control demand and the expansion of heat pump technology into data centers and energy storage [3] - The company is establishing a robotics division focused on electromechanical actuators and is advancing mass production, while also optimizing its customer structure by covering major automotive manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's operating performance shows steady growth despite a challenging market environment, achieving record highs in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Aluminum reported revenue of approximately 1164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 5% [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.71 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - The operating cash flow reached 142.65 billion yuan, marking the best level for the same period since the company's establishment [1][12]. Production and Supply Chain - The production of key products such as alumina, primary aluminum, and fine alumina all saw year-on-year growth [1]. - The self-sufficiency rate of alumina ore reached a five-year high, increasing by 6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [2]. - The production volumes for alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased by 4.88% and 9.37% respectively compared to the previous year [6]. Debt and Financial Health - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 46.88% by the end of June 2025, continuing a downward trend [2][12]. - Financial expenses for the first half of 2025 were 11.89 billion yuan, marking a continued decline [2][12]. Dividend Distribution - China Aluminum plans to distribute a cash dividend of 21.10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, which accounts for approximately 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3][13]. Strategic Focus and Innovation - The company is focusing on resource security, technological innovation, and high-end materials to enhance its competitive edge [6][9]. - Significant investments in research and development have been made, with R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 being 24.93 billion yuan, 66.66 billion yuan, 54.44 billion yuan, and 31.70 billion yuan respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's half-year report for 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by strong performance in the aviation sector and international expansion efforts [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 17.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.625 billion yuan, up 19.95% year-on-year [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.611 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.04% [3] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 465 million yuan (including tax) [4][23]. Growth Drivers - Increased production and sales of alumina in Indonesia, along with higher overseas alumina prices and rising average aluminum ingot prices, contributed to revenue and profit growth [5]. International Expansion - Nanshan Aluminum International successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 25, 2025, raising over 2 billion HKD for the expansion of its alumina production base in Indonesia [6]. Production Capacity and Technology - The alumina project in Indonesia has achieved significant production capacity, with 2 million tons currently operational and plans for an additional 1 million tons [9]. - The company is also investing in a 20,000-ton caustic soda and 16,500-ton epoxy chloropropane project in Indonesia [10]. Sustainability Initiatives - Nanshan Aluminum is investing in high-quality recycled aluminum projects to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions [11][13]. - The company has received various ESG awards and improved its MSCI ESG rating to "BBB" [11][27]. Aviation and Automotive Sectors - Nanshan Aluminum is a key supplier for major aircraft manufacturers, including Boeing and Airbus, and is involved in the production of critical components for the C919 aircraft [15]. - The company maintains strong partnerships with leading automotive brands, ensuring stable growth in the automotive aluminum market [17]. Industry Positioning - Nanshan Aluminum has established a comprehensive aluminum processing industry chain, focusing on high-value-added products such as automotive and aviation aluminum [20][22].

Group 1: Industry Development - The provincial government is focusing on developing county-level industries to enhance local economic growth, particularly in Sanmenxia City [3] - Le's Tongren Sanmenxia Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is highlighted as a high-tech enterprise integrating traditional Chinese medicine cultivation, research, production, and sales [3] - Emphasis is placed on leveraging local medicinal materials and promoting collaborative innovation in traditional Chinese medicine and modern science [3] Group 2: Environmental Protection - A recent provincial meeting addressed the need for enhanced ecological environment protection measures [4] - Liu Ning emphasized the importance of ecological restoration in mining areas as part of the political responsibility to implement Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thoughts [4] - The focus is on a systematic approach to pollution control, including source reduction, process control, and end treatment [4] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Daxian Pit Courtyard is recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage, with efforts to protect and develop it scientifically [6] - There is a call to integrate local customs and culture into tourism development, aiming to create a pillar industry from cultural tourism [6] - The government aims to promote rural revitalization through urban-rural integration and the development of a modern industrial system [6]