铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C80000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | | - | - | - | - | - | source： 重要新闻： 南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年6月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant price fluctuations and a notable decline in demand and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 25, the fuel oil futures main contract opened at 3062.00 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 3071.00 CNY and a minimum of 2996.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.11% [1]. - Domestic fuel oil sales reached 44,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons or 5.91% from the previous month [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by reduced exports from Russia and Iran, while Singapore's imports remain high, leading to an overall surplus in the market [2]. - The domestic fuel oil inventory rate increased to 9.0%, up from 7.1%, indicating a rise of 1.9 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has alleviated concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions, although tensions remain due to recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [2]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to influence fuel oil prices, with potential for further escalation [2].

聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6900-7200 | 13.77% | 33.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损 | | | | | | | | | 失，可以根据企业的库 | | | | | | | | | 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-7200 | | | | | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 库存管 | 产成品 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily, dated June 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node for confirming the planting area, and the weather conditions in the producing areas should be continuously monitored after the announcement. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and buying far - month contracts on dips are suitable strategies [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.9%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1551 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1961 [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Feed mills with low regular purchase inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Core Contradictions - The external market's oil - trading logic hype has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the planting - area confirmation time. In the domestic market, near - month prices are suppressed by real - world pressure, while far - month contracts have supply - gap and weather - speculation factors [4] 利多解读 - No content provided 利空解读 - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse - receipt registration, likely leading to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil - mill operating rates are rising, and extraction has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6] - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the third quarter remains abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6] - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and the downstream finds adding rapeseed meal lack cost - effectiveness. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly follow the soybean meal market with a weak outlook [6] Futures Price - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3069, down 4 (- 0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2747, down 6 (- 0.22%); soybean meal 09 is 3037, unchanged (0%) [7] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2374, down 4 (- 0.17%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2375, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2662, up 5 (0.19%) [10] - **Other Futures**: The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1046.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1801, down 0.0201 (- 0.28%) [10] Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4 [11] - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9 [11] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2900, down 20, and the basis is - 137, down 20. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2619, down 2, and the basis is - 38, up 20. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 281, down 20, and the futures spread is 375, down 5 [11] Import Cost and Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4632.1082 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and down 0.0108 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3830.16 yuan/ton, down 39.56 yuan/ton and up 11.47 yuan/ton week - on - week [12] - **Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 777.3132 yuan/ton, up 6.4408 yuan/ton and up 18.4175 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 202.901 yuan/ton, down 15.9385 yuan/ton and down 0.152 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton and up 111 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot profit is 118 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton and up 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. The trading points on the futures market are limited, and it is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the production of this variety is small [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 9.1% over the past three years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples nationwide and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about the decline of old - crop apple inventory and the reduction of new - crop apple production, leading to high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the futures market. It is likely to be volatile from June to August. Focus on bagging data and early - maturing apple opening prices. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is flat compared to last year, but production is low [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster inventory reduction than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures market [5]. - Unstable weather in apple - producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing area is poor, and there may be a significant reduction in production [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The overall reduction in production based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [5]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. High - priced fruits have no market, indicating weak consumption [5]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01 - AP12, spreads like AP01 - 05, etc.) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different spot apple varieties (e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commercial 70), as well as data on profit, theoretical delivery price, and basis [6]. Apple Inventory - As of June 20, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 116.49 (decrease of 10.97), and as of June 12, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), it was 126.69 (decrease of 9.81). The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc.) and the weekly changes in the number of trucks arriving at some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) are also provided [8].

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月24日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 供需端呈现供减虚增格局，供给端因华南炼厂开工率减低而小幅收缩，库存端环比变动不大，需求体现出一 定的梅雨季节特征。最大的变量依然是伊以冲突引起的地缘溢价，油价大幅上涨沥青裂解走弱，基差走弱， 盘面大幅修复贴水，绝对价格高位。市场理解伊朗报复的程度有限，短期沥青盘面波动完全跟随成本端原油 的走势，目前尚难给出冲突结束的结论，后续需持续关注双方军事进展。短期（6月中下旬-8月初）看进入雨 季造成的需求增速下滑能否匹配高利润下产量增速的抬升，目前初步有一些苗头，短期建议月差正套离场； 中长期看十四五最后一年带来的需求端的增量预期仍然存在，旺季表现仍然可期 。 【利多解读】 1、沥青自身库存结构良好； 2、需求季节性旺季； 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities announced that its subsidiary Bohai Futures Co., Ltd. will voluntarily terminate its listing on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ) starting June 24, 2025, based on its development plans [1] Group 1 - Bohai Futures will apply for the termination of its listing and will handle the stock exit registration procedures [1] - The termination of the listing is aligned with the future development plans of both Northeast Securities and Bohai Futures [1] - This decision is not expected to have a significant impact on the normal operations of either Northeast Securities or Bohai Futures [1]

Core Insights - The main contract for the European shipping index futures closed at 2508, with a decrease of 7.00% and a trading volume of 71,600 contracts as of June 24 [1][3] - The total trading volume for all contracts reached 101,400 contracts, an increase of 1,080 contracts compared to the previous day [1][4] Position Data Summary - The top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 938 contracts [1] - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 43,200 contracts, a decrease of 1,075 contracts, while short positions totaled 47,200 contracts, a decrease of 1,957 contracts [1][4] Major Players - The top three long positions were held by CITIC Futures (5,019 contracts), Guotai Junan (4,857 contracts), and Huatai Futures (3,151 contracts) [1][4] - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (6,651 contracts), CITIC Futures (4,161 contracts), and Dongzheng Futures (3,578 contracts) [1][4] Changes in Long Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (2,490 contracts, +301), Guoxin Futures (1,020 contracts, +160), and Founder Futures (1,132 contracts, +122) [1] - The top three decreases in long positions were from Guotai Junan (2,740 contracts, -447), Huishang Futures (1,334 contracts, -308), and Dongfang Caifu (1,254 contracts, -255) [1] Changes in Short Positions - The top three increases in short positions were from Huishang Futures (1,395 contracts, +166), Donghai Futures (698 contracts, +164), and CITIC Futures (2,541 contracts, +160) [1] - The top three decreases in short positions were from Galaxy Futures (1,230 contracts, -810), Guotai Junan (3,662 contracts, -608), and Dongzheng Futures (1,989 contracts, -527) [1]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月24日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.27%,成交量7.68万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为5053手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交8.26万手，比上一日新增1.63万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓11.21万手，比上一日增加2393 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.01万手，比上一日增加1454手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓26286、国泰君安，总持仓17671、东证期货，总持仓12505；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓17673、银河期货，总持仓13381、中信期货，总持仓12662； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓11857、增仓770，华泰期货、持仓7862、增仓628，中信期货、持 仓22997、增仓522；多头减仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓5807、减仓-492，国信期货、持仓1255、减仓-112，中泰期货、持 仓1809、减仓-105； | | | | | 2025年6月24日30年期国债期货全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority decline, with significant drops in crude oil, fuel oil, and liquefied gas reaching their daily limit down [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Crude oil and fuel oil hit the daily limit down, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market [1] - Liquefied gas also fell to the daily limit down, with a decline of 6% [1] - LU fuel and shipping European routes dropped over 7%, reflecting a significant downturn in these sectors [1] Group 2: Other Commodity Performance - Methanol and asphalt saw declines exceeding 5% [1] - Styrene, PTA, and paraxylene fell more than 4% [1] - Ethylene glycol, pulp, bottle chips, short fibers, and BR rubber dropped over 3% [1] - Plastics, soybean oil, palm oil, and coke experienced declines of over 2% [1] Group 3: Notable Increases - Lithium carbonate increased by over 3%, indicating some positive movement in this commodity [1] - Glass and industrial silicon saw gains of over 1% [1]