国家发展改革委副主任王昌林日前在国新办发布会上表示，当前，我国经济运行存在供强需弱的问题， 供给到了从"有没有"到"好不好"的阶段。下一步，宏观政策的发力点将放在做强国内大循环上，重点适 应需求升级的趋势。记者了解到，下一步，我国将制定出台2026－2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。为重 点推进服务消费，今年相关部门还将推动实施服务业扩能提质行动。 扩大内需的同时，强化科技创新支撑引领、构建现代化产业体系也在各地2026年重点工作中居于重要位 置。其中，在创新方面，多地重点提及"科技成果应用转化"。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 近日，浙江、北京、广东等地陆续召开地方两会，于"十五五"开局的关键节点，谋划未来五年发展蓝图 和2026年全年重点目标任务。翻看今年各地政策着力点，强化科技创新支撑引领、构建现代化产业体 系、挖掘有效需求潜力居于重要位置，"服务消费潜力""科技成果转化应用""新兴支柱产业"等成为各地 政府工作报告中的高频词。 敲定经济增长预期目标是地方两会的一项重要内容。目前，浙江、北京、河南、天津、广东、河北等地 两会已陆续召开，并公布了2026年经济增长预期目标。其中，天津的目标是4.5％， ...

Group 1 - European executives at the Davos World Economic Forum warned that internal issues must be resolved to avoid being sidelined in global competition [1][4] - Key problems identified include excessive regulation, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and the failure to effectively utilize the unified market of approximately 450 million people in Europe [1][4] - Executives called for a unified approach and resource integration to enhance overall competitiveness in various future industries [1][4] Group 2 - The forum gathered over 800 global executives, highlighting urgent topics such as high energy costs, the AI race, and supply chain security [2][6] - Fincantieri CEO Pierroberto Folgiero criticized the inefficiency of building separate naval vessels for different countries, emphasizing the need for shared platforms and projects [2][5] - The competitive landscape is intensifying due to factors like the US-China trade war and pressures on key industrial sectors, necessitating a change in narrative for Europe's economic growth and social cohesion [2][5] Group 3 - Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan noted that European countries are facing obstacles in launching innovative drugs due to US pressure on drug prices [6] - He emphasized that Europe must improve its investment attractiveness to compete with the US, where Novartis is investing billions in new factories and R&D [3][6] - Folgiero pointed out the need for self-sufficiency in strategic sectors like energy and defense, indicating that supply chains will need to become shorter [3][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment has recovered as some negative factors eased. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need improvement. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainties, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs further consolidation, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year as internal and external constraints weaken. The issuance pace of interest rate bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [102][103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2603 contract rose 1.03%, the 10 - year T2603 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2603 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 contract rose 0.02%. The trading volume of TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased. The open interest of the TS main contract decreased, while that of TF, T, and TL main contracts increased [12][27]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. Fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand were introduced, including a 500 billion yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to implement measures to boost employment and income, and support the service industry. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The US economy showed strong data, with the Q3 2025 GDP final value growing at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The situation in Greenland eased, and the US president reached a "framework agreement" with NATO on the Greenland issue [35][102]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread widened, the 5 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract's inter - period spread fluctuated [41][50][54]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [68]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while the 1 - month Shibor rate decreased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.49%. The yields of treasury bonds decreased across the board, with the 1.7 - year yield decreasing by 1 - 4.3bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields decreasing by 1.1bp and 4.85bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened [72][78]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.569038 trillion yuan, the total repayment was 1.019335 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 549.703 billion yuan [85]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9929, up 149 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates narrowed. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield increased, the VIX index rose sharply and then fell. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium remained the same as last week [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Domestic**: In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were significant internal structural differences. The growth momentum mainly relied on strong exports and stable production, while domestic demand recovery was more policy - driven, and the self - growth momentum of investment and consumption was insufficient [102]. - **Overseas**: The US economic data was strong, and the consumer resilience supported economic expansion. The situation in Greenland improved [102]. - **Outlook**: With the easing of some negative factors, the bond market sentiment has recovered. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is waiting for new information for directional selection [103].

Core Insights - The rapid development of generative AI is driving a new wave of industrial transformation, becoming a significant force in the evolution of productive forces, but it heavily relies on computing infrastructure, particularly GPUs and servers, which are being updated at a pace far exceeding traditional IT equipment, leading to a surge in electronic waste and environmental risks [1][2] Group 1: Electronic Waste Generation - The lifespan of core AI hardware such as GPUs, CPUs, and server motherboards is typically short, facing obsolescence in about three years, which contributes to significant electronic waste generation [1] - It is predicted that from 2023 to 2030, electronic waste generated from generative AI could reach 5 million tons, including 1.5 million tons of printed circuit boards and 500,000 tons of server batteries, with an annual peak potentially reaching 2.5 million tons by 2030 [1] - The complex composition of this new type of waste includes precious metals like gold and silver, as well as hazardous substances such as lead, chromium, mercury, and polybrominated biphenyls, posing threats to soil, water, and human health if not disposed of properly [1] Group 2: Resource Misallocation and Waste - The rapid iteration of AI hardware, driven by Moore's Law and commercial competition, leads to the premature obsolescence of devices before they reach their physical lifespan, exacerbating resource misallocation and waste [2] - International technological barriers and supply chain disruptions force some regions to rely on outdated hardware to fill computing gaps, creating a vicious cycle of increased resource consumption and waste generation [2] - The phenomenon of redundant construction of computing power and repeated training of algorithms among enterprises further amplifies inefficient use of energy and hardware resources [2] Group 3: Governance and Policy Recommendations - Addressing the electronic waste risks from the AI industry is not merely an industry regulation issue but requires a comprehensive top-level design for solid waste management [3] - Recommendations include developing specialized management guidelines for AI-related electronic waste, incorporating core indicators into AI industry development plans, and establishing a lifecycle information traceability platform using IoT and blockchain technologies [3] - Policies should encourage green transformation in the industry through tools like green procurement and tax incentives, promoting eco-design practices among AI hardware manufacturers [4] - The responsibility for waste reduction and compliance in the AI hardware sector should be clearly defined, with large AI companies required to disclose key information regarding hardware ownership, retirement, and recycling [4]

Core Viewpoint - The digital industry in China is rapidly developing, significantly contributing to the integration of the real economy and the digital economy, and enhancing new productive forces during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Scale and Growth - By the end of 2025, China's digital industry revenue is expected to reach approximately 38.3 trillion yuan, with profits of 3.1 trillion yuan, representing cumulative growth of about 39.5% and 48.4% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - Major provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, and others are projected to contribute over 90% to the national digital industry revenue growth [3] Group 2: Innovation and New Drivers - The software industry is experiencing continuous innovation, with the Harmony operating system installed on nearly 1.2 billion devices, and the artificial intelligence sector is thriving with numerous innovative products emerging [4] - New digital products in emerging fields are driving a new round of consumption upgrades, becoming a new growth point for economic development [4] Group 3: Empowerment and Application - The industrial internet has achieved full coverage across major industrial categories, with over 100 million industrial devices connected to key platforms [4] - High-level 5G factories have shown an average capacity increase of 25%, product quality improvement of 21%, and operational cost reduction of 19% [4] - Support for 101 pilot cities for small and medium-sized enterprises' digital transformation has led to 45,000 enterprises engaging in digital upgrades [4] Group 4: Infrastructure and Connectivity - China has built the world's largest and most advanced information infrastructure, with 4.838 million 5G base stations and 65.9% of mobile phone users being 5G users [6][8] - The number of gigabit broadband users has reached 240 million, accounting for 34.5% of all broadband users [8] Group 5: Future Development and Technology - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has completed the first phase of 6G technology testing and has initiated the second phase, with over 300 key technology reserves [9] - Future plans include upgrading networks, accelerating technology iterations, and deepening applications across various sectors such as agriculture, transportation, and healthcare [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the significant progress in the digital industry and its integration with the real economy, highlighting the achievements made during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in digital transformation and innovation capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Industry Growth - By the end of 2025, China's digital industry revenue is projected to reach approximately 38.3 trillion yuan, with profits expected to be around 3.1 trillion yuan, reflecting cumulative growth of about 39.5% and 48.4% respectively since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - Major provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, and others are expected to contribute over 90% to the national digital industry revenue growth [1]. Group 2: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The software industry is experiencing rapid innovation, with the open-source Harmony operating system being installed on nearly 1.2 billion devices [2]. - The artificial intelligence sector is thriving, leading to a variety of innovative products and driving a new wave of consumer upgrades [2]. Group 3: Industrial Internet and Digital Transformation - The integration of industrial internet applications has achieved full coverage across major industrial categories, with over 100 million industrial devices connected to key platforms nationwide [2]. - The implementation of smart technologies in core manufacturing processes has resulted in an average capacity increase of 25%, a 21% improvement in product quality, and a 19% reduction in operational costs [2].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan, marking a 5.0% growth compared to 2024, showcasing the economy's resilience and innovative momentum [13][14][23] - The economic growth is attributed to a dual approach of "stabilization" and "transformation," focusing on preventing risks while directing resources towards new productive forces [14][15] Innovation and Development - Innovation is positioned as the core driver of China's economic growth, with a shift from traditional factor-driven growth to enhancing total factor productivity [17][18] - China maintains a strong momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence, robotics, and renewable energy, achieving a top ten ranking in the global innovation index [18][19] Trade and Global Cooperation - China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience, supported by a complete industrial system and innovative drivers, contributing to high-quality development [19][20] - The country continues to promote an open global economy, implementing policies like zero tariffs in Hainan Free Trade Port, enhancing its attractiveness to global resources [20][21] Long-term Economic Outlook - China's contribution to global economic growth remains around 30%, with expectations of continued positive trends supported by a robust industrial system and innovation capabilities [22][23] - The international community holds a favorable view of China's economic prospects, with organizations like the IMF and World Bank raising growth forecasts for 2026 [23][24]

Group 1 - Jinan will focus on key projects such as the Super Cloud of China Science and Technology (Jinan) and the Intelligent Computing Center of China Telecom (Jinan) to integrate into the national unified computing power network, aiming to build a computing power hub that serves the entire province and the nation [3] - The city plans to enhance the capabilities of the Inspur AI Model Factory and develop commercially valuable vertical models, with the goal of registering 5 new generative AI large models and creating 5 benchmark large model products [3] - Jinan aims to accelerate the construction of key digital industrialization projects, including the Shandong Autonomous and Controllable Information Equipment Industrial Park, and improve the functionality of various innovation and research institutes [3] Group 2 - The city will expand the functionality of the "Love Shandong" Jinan branch platform, upgrading 70 key livelihood services, and enhancing platforms like "Quan Yibao" and Haiyou Talent Employment [4] - Jinan is set to improve the grassroots intelligent governance system and accelerate the construction of a digital social operation scheduling platform, integrating various digital systems for better urban management [4] - The city will innovate urban governance units by utilizing resources from smart communities, smart policing, and digital rural areas, and will actively conduct pilot projects for digital blocks [4]

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence Development - The proposal emphasizes the construction of Hangzhou as a leading city in artificial intelligence innovation, focusing on advanced technologies such as large models, high-end chips, foundational software, model algorithms, and data engineering [1] - It aims to establish a new computing power system and promote key areas like embodied intelligent robots, brain-like intelligence, and intelligent driving, fostering a collaborative development pattern across the entire industry chain [1] - The initiative includes the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan to integrate AI with various sectors, enhancing research paradigms and societal governance [1] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing Industry - The proposal aims to strengthen and optimize the "296X" advanced manufacturing clusters, targeting the creation of trillion-level industry clusters in artificial intelligence and visual intelligence [2] - It focuses on nine key sectors, including intelligent robots, integrated circuits, biomedicine, and new energy equipment, to develop billion-level industry clusters [2] - The plan includes establishing future industry investment growth mechanisms and exploring various technological routes and market regulations for emerging sectors like quantum technology and brain-like intelligence [2] Group 3: State-Owned Enterprises Reform - The proposal seeks to enhance the core functions and competitiveness of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) through deepening reforms and optimizing the layout of state capital [3] - It emphasizes the importance of strategic collaboration between SOEs and private enterprises, supporting joint efforts on major projects [3] - The initiative includes improving the evaluation system for SOEs and enhancing their technological innovation investment mechanisms [3]

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on focusing on "doing one's own business well" is crucial for the successful start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, as it directly impacts the quality and direction of development throughout the year and beyond [1]. Group 1 - The beginning of the year is a critical time for planning and action, where clarity in priorities is essential to avoid distractions and ensure effective implementation of key tasks [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines clear objectives, and local leaders are expected to set an example through their actions, emphasizing the importance of practical results [2]. - The urgency of economic development is highlighted by the proactive engagement of provincial leaders in researching and addressing major economic issues, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector [2]. Group 2 - The focus on serving the people and improving their quality of life is paramount, with economic growth aimed at enhancing employment and social welfare [3]. - The successful execution of plans is measured by tangible benefits to the community, such as improved healthcare, education, and social security [3]. - The importance of a strong start in the planning phase is reiterated, as it sets the tone for future progress and achievement of goals [3].