Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant performance of emerging consumption sectors in the Hong Kong and A-share markets, with funds heavily invested in these areas seeing substantial net value increases compared to those focused on traditional consumption stocks [1] - The top-performing consumption fund, Hengyue Craftsmanship Preferred One-Year Holding, has achieved nearly 40% year-to-date returns, with its top ten holdings primarily consisting of emerging consumption stocks [1] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on the emotional value associated with new consumption trends, which reflects a shift in consumer habits towards more diverse and experience-driven purchases [2][6] Group 2 - Fund managers believe that to identify emerging consumption stocks, they must go beyond traditional research methods and engage directly with consumers to understand their preferences and behaviors [2][3] - Emotional value is identified as a key investment theme, categorized into three types: pure emotional value, dopamine-inducing experiences, and therapeutic benefits from products like pet ownership [6] - The investment logic is shifting from traditional consumption upgrades to identifying sectors with rising demand and potential for growth, particularly among younger consumers who prioritize value and personal satisfaction [9][10] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of understanding the competitive advantages of companies in the emotional consumption space, emphasizing the need for a thorough analysis of management strategies and market positioning [7][8] - Emerging consumption sectors are seen as having significant growth potential, driven by new consumer demographics, innovative channels, and evolving market needs [10][11] - Fund managers express optimism about the overall market, noting positive economic signals and the potential for growth in various emerging consumption areas, including emotional consumption, technology-driven products, and affordable brands [11]

Group 1: Emerging Consumption Trends - The emergence of new consumption sectors such as pet economy, beauty care, and leisure snacks has led to significant stock performance, outperforming traditional consumer stocks [1][2] - The highest-performing consumption fund, Hengyue Craftsmanship, has achieved nearly 40% year-to-date returns, primarily investing in high-growth emerging consumer stocks [1][2] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of understanding consumer behavior shifts towards emotional and experiential consumption, indicating a transition from material to spiritual consumption [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fund managers advocate for on-the-ground research to gain deeper insights into emerging consumer brands, as traditional desk research may not suffice [3][4] - The concept of "emotional value" has become a key investment focus, with three categories identified: pure emotional value, dopamine-inducing experiences, and therapeutic benefits [5][6] - Investment strategies should consider both short-term growth and long-term industry potential, focusing on companies that can establish competitive barriers and scale effects [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The changing consumption behavior of younger consumers is shifting the focus from traditional consumption upgrades to value-driven purchases, impacting traditional consumer sectors [9][10] - The investment landscape is evolving, with new consumer demographics, channels, and product categories creating opportunities for growth in emerging sectors [10][11] - Current market optimism is supported by positive economic signals, with a focus on high-growth emerging consumption areas such as emotional consumption and technology-driven products [11]

宏观策略·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 一季度受益于抢出口，中国经济增速达 5.4%，出口增速显著，但 4 月美 国订单锐减。尽管转口贸易支撑了 4 月出口，但美国经济软数据衰退预示 外需疲软，预计 6 月出口将明显下降，三季度压力或将增大。 • 企业普遍预期关税不会持久，因美国短期内难寻替代产能且消费习惯难改。 特朗普已释放积极信号，中美或通过非美国家间接博弈，中国正深化与欧 洲等关系，中美谈判时间表或将确定。 • 关税增加导致中国企业出口成本上升，尤其影响电子、家电等全球营销产 品。应对策略包括转嫁成本、产能转移至东南亚/印度、转口贸易、建立海 外仓及拆分产品价值等避税手段。 • 中国企业正采取多元化市场战略和深度本土化措施，通过在东南亚、印度 等地建厂供应美国市场，同时保留中国作为全球供应中心，以降低单一市 场依赖并增强抗风险能力。 • 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利改善，全 A 非金融板块累计同比增速显著提升， 但单季度营收仍有波动。创业板盈利明显改善，科创 50 业绩加速下滑， TMT 板块表现优秀，传统消费行业相对优异。 Q&A 美国关税政策对中国企业的影响如何，以及企 ...