港股三大指数呈现低开低走行情，恒生科技指数跌幅最大，午间收跌1.91%，恒生指数跌0.89%险守 26000点大关，国企指数跌1.17%。市场总体偏弱势，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体走低，其中， 阿里巴巴、腾讯跌幅明显，半导体股、中资券商股、汽车股、重型机械股跌幅较大，芯片龙头中芯国际 跌超5%。另外，生物医药股在弱势拉升，三生制药大涨超10%领衔创新药概念股上涨，教育股、旅游 股、石油股部分活跃，中国石油绩后涨约2%。(格隆汇) ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, with significant fluctuations and differing opinions among investors [2][9][10] - The recent index movements are driven primarily by a few large-cap technology stocks, leading to a disparity in returns between retail investors and the index [10][12] - Current policies indicate a supportive stance, with liquidity remaining reasonably ample, suggesting potential for the index to challenge the 4000-point level again [10][12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, emphasizing the importance of controlling positions while balancing short-term defense and medium-term layout [3][11] - Key investment themes include: - **Technology Growth**: Focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics, supported by government policies and strong quarterly performances [3][11] - **High Dividend Defensive Stocks**: Sectors like banking, public utilities, and transportation are highlighted for their ability to provide safety margins during market volatility [3][11] - **Cyclical Sectors**: Areas such as photovoltaics, batteries, and rare earths are expected to benefit from policy changes aimed at reducing competition and improving profitability [3][11] Sector Performance - The energy metals and battery sectors have shown strong performance, with significant gains noted in recent trading sessions [7][8] - The quantum technology sector is also gaining traction, driven by government initiatives aimed at fostering future industries [8]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 24% 30% 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,986.90 | -0.73 | | 深证成指 | | 13,532.13 | -1.16 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,709.91 | -0.80 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,556.98 | -0.57 | | 中证 | ...

中泰证券研报称，随着10月30日中美元首会晤临近，市场市场情绪有望进一步回暖，预计将开启新一轮 行情。短期配置方向上，可重点关注三条主线：一是AI应用板块，尤其是机器人、端侧AI及恒生科技 指数相关标的；二是"反内卷"主题下的创业板细分产业，如多晶硅、光伏组件等具备高景气预期的制造 链环节；三是券商板块。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant adjustment after reaching a high point, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3986.90, down 0.73%, indicating a potential turning point for future market direction [1][8]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index peaked at 4025 points, with 3963 points identified as the first support level. A breach of this support could lead to a further decline towards 3936 points, which aligns with the 5-day moving average [2]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The trading volume in the Shanghai market approached 580 billion, a 10% increase from previous days, while net outflows of over 60 billion were observed, particularly in the communication equipment and semiconductor sectors. This indicates a significant selling pressure despite high trading activity [4]. Sector Performance - The market displayed a stark contrast, with quantum technology and battery sectors rising, while technology, computing, brokerage, and media sectors faced declines. Defensive sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals showed resilience, suggesting a shift from aggressive to defensive market sentiment [5]. External Environment - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not positively impact the U.S. stock market, which experienced a late-session drop. This negative sentiment is likely to affect the A-share market, especially if the U.S. market continues to decline [6]. Market Structure - The margin trading balance remains high, indicating that leveraged funds have not significantly exited the market. However, if the index continues to weaken, there may be passive selling pressure. Additionally, the end of the month may lead to increased volatility due to institutional rebalancing [7].

1、中美经贸磋商达成多项成果共识 重要程度：★★★★★ 中国商务部新闻发言人30日就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排答记者问时称，美方将取消针对中国商品(包括 香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品，下同)加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品加征的24%对等 关税将继续暂停一年。中方将相应调整针对美方上述关税的反制措施。 点评：期盼了那么久，终于出细则了。整体来看下就是：美国撤回今年加码的部分制裁，我方对等撤回部 分反制。总体成果还是非常大的，双方都能给彼此一个缓冲和继续谈的时间，接下来实体经济和出口缓了 一口气，港股也直线反弹。 2、五部门：11月1日起完善免税店政策 支持提振消费 重要程度：★★★★ 近日，财政部、商务部、文化和旅游部、海关总署、税务总局印发《关于完善免税店政策支持提振消费的 通知》，明确自2025年11月1日起完善免税店政策，旨在进一步发挥免税店政策支持提振消费的作用，引 导海外消费回流，吸引外籍人员入境消费，促进免税商品零售业务健康有序发展。 点评：难怪中国中免连续涨了好几天。自选哥算是发现了，这是准备让科技、消费和外贸三驾马车同时启 动，共同带动经济健康运行了。毕竟，这缺少哪一个都不是最 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.33%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 1.26% [2][3] - The total market turnover was HKD 242.7 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 33.6 billion, representing 15.99% of the total turnover [2] - Southbound capital inflow decreased to HKD 2.26 billion, with the most net buying in China Mobile, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba, Tencent, and ZTE saw the most net selling [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Defensive stocks and resource stocks were sold off due to a rebound in market risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices [3] - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors saw notable declines, with major gold stocks like Zijin Mining, Zhaojin Mining, and Shandong Gold all falling [3] - The consumer sector also faced downward pressure, with sports goods, luxury goods, tobacco, and local retail stocks all weakening [3] - The pharmaceutical and biotech sectors continued to adjust, with companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical experiencing significant declines post-earnings [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a 6.6% year-on-year decline in revenue to HKD 27.01 billion and a 41.9% drop in net profit to HKD 1.29 billion, which was in line with expectations [8][9] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 135% [9] - Despite the revenue decline, Tmall achieved a 20% increase in operating cash flow, reaching HKD 3.8 billion, due to effective working capital management [9] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is focusing on optimizing its store structure, with a 18.3% reduction in the number of direct stores to 5,020 and a 12.4% decrease in sales area [10] - The company is implementing stricter standards for store openings and locations to enhance operational efficiency [10] - Tmall is deepening collaborations with high-end brands like SOAR Running and Norda to diversify its brand matrix and strengthen its market presence [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report predicts a gradual recovery in performance as the retail consumption environment improves, with expected EPS of HKD 0.21, 0.22, and 0.23 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [10] - A target price of HKD 3.6 is set for the 2026 fiscal year, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's high dividend policy and potential for recovery [8][10]

Market Overview - The market experienced a quick pullback in the afternoon on October 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.73% at 3986.90 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24.217 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan compared to Wednesday [1]. Competition Insights - The 76th session of the simulated stock trading competition, hosted by the Daily Economic News App, began on October 20, with several participants achieving impressive results, including two participants with returns exceeding 60%. The competition runs from October 20 to October 31, with a simulated capital of 500,000 yuan [1]. Prize Structure - The pre-tax cash rewards for each competition session are as follows: 688 yuan for the 1st place, 188 yuan for the 2nd to 4th places, and 88 yuan for the 5th to 10th places. Additionally, there is a shared reward of 500 yuan for all other participants with positive returns. Monthly leaderboard prizes include 888 yuan for the 1st place and varying amounts for subsequent ranks [3]. Sector Opportunities - Participants in the competition have expressed optimism about sectors such as brokerage firms, server liquid cooling, humanoid robots, and rare metals, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [4]. Brokerage Sector Analysis - Some experts believe that certain companies within the brokerage sector are undervalued, with valuations potentially equivalent to the Shanghai Composite Index at around 3000 points, suggesting an arbitrage opportunity [7].

港股方面，赣锋锂业涨约15%，中国铝业、天齐锂业涨超9%，中国宏桥涨逾8%。 具体来看，A股主要股指盘中震荡下探，截至收盘，沪指跌0.73%报3986.9点，深证成指跌1.16%报 13532.13点，创业板指跌1.84%报3263.02点，科创50指数跌1.87%，沪深北三市合计成交24646亿元，较 此前一日增加1737亿元。 场内超4000股飘绿，煤炭板块大幅走低，开滦股份、安泰集团盘中跌停；券商板块走弱，中金公司、东 方财富等跌超3%；AI产业链股跳水，腾景科技、天孚通信等跌超10%；创新药概念亦下挫，翰宇药业 跌超10%，药明康德跌超8%；钢铁、有色板块拉升，常铝股份、大中矿业两连板，安阳钢铁等涨停； 锂电概念逆市爆发，鹏辉能源、石大胜华、天齐锂业等均涨停；量子科技概念再度活跃，国盾量子 （688027）盘中一度涨停股价突破600元大关，续创新高。 锂电产业链股爆发 A股锂电产业链股盘中强势拉升，截至收盘，鹏辉能源20%涨停，天华新能涨近15%，万润新能、欣旺 达等涨超10%，永兴材料、石大胜华等多股涨停，天齐锂业逼近涨停，赣锋锂业涨超5%。 | 代码 | 名称 | � | 涨幅% | 现价 | 涨 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.90 points, down 0.73%, with a trading volume of 1,070.059 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,532.13 points, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 1,351.618 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,263.02 points, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 641.419 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, brokerage, semiconductor, oil, real estate, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines [1] - Conversely, the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors saw gains despite the overall market downturn [1] - The banking sector showed an upward trend, while lithium battery and quantum technology concepts remained active [1]