Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend but poor operability on the disk [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term due to weak downstream demand, high iron - water levels, and market sentiment changes. The iron ore market will face increased downward pressure when iron - water production cuts turn from expectation to reality. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policies and have large price fluctuations. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are also influenced by policies, with silicon iron following the trend of silicon manganese [2][3][4] Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Thread steel shows rising demand but falling production and rising inventory. Hot - rolled coil has improving demand, rising production, and accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level is low, and attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity near the military parade. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is in a strong and volatile state. Supply is strong with potential for seasonal growth, and port inventory is rising. Demand is supported by high iron - water levels in the short - term, but there are expectations of production cuts around the military parade. The downward pressure on the disk increases when production cuts become a reality [3] Coke - The coke futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. There are expectations of production restrictions in East China due to approaching events. The seventh price increase has improved coking profits and slightly increased daily production. Inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by policies with large short - term fluctuations [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. Coal mine production is increasing, and the spot auction market has a slightly higher non - transaction rate. Terminal inventory is flat, and production - end inventory has a slight increase. The price is affected by policies and is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. Demand is supported by high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices have a slight decline, and the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is affected by policies and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive overview of various financial markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and provide schedules of economic data releases. Each section details the latest market data, price changes, and relevant indicators, offering insights for investors to assess market trends and potential investment opportunities. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The F spot-futures spread is -1.40, with a change of 5.78 from the previous day, and a 1-year historical percentile of 58.30%. Other spreads such as H spot-futures spread, IC and IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - Cross - variety ratios like CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 200/CSI 50, etc., have their own latest values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - For basis, the TS basis has an IRR of 1.2502, a latest value of 0.0243, and a change of - 0.0023 from the previous day, with a percentile of 11.20% since listing. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL basis [2]. - Inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL show different values and changes, as well as their respective historical percentiles [2]. - Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., also have corresponding values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - Domestic futures closing prices: The AU2510 contract closed at 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan (-0.31%) from the previous day; the AG2510 contract closed at 9042 yuan/kg, down 145 yuan (-1.58%) [6]. - Foreign futures closing prices: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 3392.20 US dollars/ounce, up 33.30 dollars (0.99%); the COMEX silver main contract closed at 37.90 US dollars/ounce, up 0.57 dollars (1.51%) [6]. - Spot prices: London gold was at 3347.34 US dollars/ounce, up 31.82 dollars (0.96%); London silver was at 37.86 US dollars/ounce, up 0.48 dollars (1.28%) [6]. - Basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and position data are also provided [6]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - Spot quotes: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe freight rate was 2364 US dollars/FEU, up 6 dollars (0.25%); CMA CGM's was 2913 US dollars/FEU, up 34 dollars (1.18%), etc. [8]. - Shipping indices: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 2180.17, down 55.3 (-2.47%); the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29, up 24.1 (2.23%) [8]. - Futures prices and basis: The EC2602 contract was at 1532.0, down 3.4 (-0.22%); the basis of the main contract was 700.2, down 43.0 (-5.79%) [8]. - Fundamental data: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3289.97 FTEU; Shanghai port on - time rate was 32.58, down 1.99 (-5.76%) [8]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - Overseas data includes economic indicators such as eurozone 8 - month manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence index, and US initial jobless claims, etc. [9]. - Domestic data includes steel production, inventory, and utilization rate, as well as various commodity data such as coal, coke, and lithium carbonate [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating, with most varieties expected to fluctuate, indicating that the market trend is uncertain in the short - term, and the expected price change is within plus or minus one standard deviation [102]. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently affected by factors such as the approaching peak - off - peak season transition, limited pre - event production restrictions, and inventory pressure. The overall market is in a state of shock, and the follow - up needs to focus on production restrictions and terminal demand [1][2][5]. - The price of steel products is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply and demand of steel products will be affected around the military parade. The specific situation of blast furnace production restrictions needs to be tracked [7]. - The iron ore market has stable supply and inventory, and the demand is at a high level. The negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][7]. - The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply and demand tightness under supply disturbances, and the short - term disk still has support [2][11]. - The glass market has weak fundamentals, and the cost support is strengthened by the rise in coal prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price may decline in the long - term [2][13]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term and decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. - The supply pressure of manganese silicon increases, and the price may decline in the long - term; the short - term price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, but there are hidden concerns in the long - term fundamentals [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: Low - price transactions are the main form, and the overall spot trading of steel products is average. Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed little. Rebar inventory increased significantly, and the demand continued to decline. The export orders of hot - rolled coils improved, and the domestic demand was resilient, with the inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined and the inventory accumulated, showing off - peak season characteristics [7]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of steel products are marginally weakening in the off - peak season. The supply and demand will be affected around the military parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked. The disk may fluctuate more violently, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. The follow - up should focus on the production restriction of steel mills and terminal demand [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: The port trading volume increased. The overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly, slightly higher than the same period last year. The total supply is relatively stable. The small - sample molten iron output remained stable, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased slightly. The iron ore ports accumulated inventory, the number of berthed ships decreased, and steel mills replenished inventory slightly [7]. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, the supply and inventory are stable, and the negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces and blast furnaces increased, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available days of inventory decreased to a relatively low level. After the price cut by Shagang, the scrap steel prices in East China and other places followed the decline, while the prices in Hebei increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the market was calm and the disk fluctuated. In the spot market, the price remained stable. After the sixth round of price increase, the overall profit of coking enterprises turned positive, and the production increased slightly. The downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The trading enthusiasm of traders decreased, and the steel mill arrivals improved. The upstream coking enterprises continued to reduce inventory, and the overall inventory pressure was not significant [10]. - Outlook: The expectation of production restrictions on coke is strong before the military parade, and the short - term supply is tight. The seventh round of price increase still needs time to be implemented. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel enterprises [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area resumed production, but some mine points still had limited production. The short - term supply disturbance of coal mines will continue. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remained above 1,000 vehicles. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the downstream purchases on demand. Some coal mines have accumulated inventory, but there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][11]. - Outlook: The supply disturbance continues, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply before the military parade. The short - term fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term disk still has support [11]. Glass - Core Logic: After the decline in the glass disk, the sentiment in the spot market declined. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [2][13]. - Outlook: The real - world demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The spot trading is still weak after the increase in the disk. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the demand is relatively stable. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [2][15]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the price of manganese silicon futures opened low and moved low. The raw material procurement by manufacturers before the military parade is almost over, the port trading atmosphere has cooled down, and the port ore price has declined slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand will decline slightly during the military parade [2]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is controllable, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and the price may decline [2]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures opened with a gap down and then consolidated. The production of ferrosilicon is accelerating, and the demand for steelmaking will decline slightly during the military parade. The magnesium market has weak high - price transaction follow - up [2][17]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center will decline [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] - The mid - term outlooks for specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are also "oscillation" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the transition between the off - season and peak season approaches, market concerns about the terminal demand for steel are rising. Although the seventh round of price increases for coke has started, the futures prices of coal and coke are falling. The production restriction before major events is slightly less than expected, and inventory pressure at the downstream of steel is emerging. The price is expected to oscillate within the current range in the near term [1][2] - The trading focus of the black building materials market is gradually shifting from the expectation of anti - involution on the supply side to the actual supply - demand situation. The weak reality is suppressing prices, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Overseas mines' shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly rebounded, slightly higher than last year's level. The total supply is relatively stable, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention [2][7] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly, but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and the possibility of short - term production cuts by steel enterprises due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2][7] - **Inventory**: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The fundamental bearish drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, but some mines' production is still restricted due to accidents and other factors. Short - term supply disturbances will continue due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" policy. The short - term impact of the adjustment of the error threshold between the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically dissipated, and the average daily customs clearance still exceeds 1,000 vehicles [2][12] - **Demand**: The seventh round of price increases for coke has started, profits are gradually recovering, production is slightly increasing, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, spot trading is weakening, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][12] - **Outlook**: Supply disturbances will continue, and there is unlikely to be a significant increase in supply before the parade. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term futures market still has support [2][12] Coke - **Supply**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the overall profit of coke enterprises turned positive, production started to improve, and production increased slightly. However, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and the seventh round of price increases has started [11] - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month. Under the weakening of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased. Steel mills' inventory replenishment before the parade was active, and the arrival of goods has improved [11] - **Outlook**: As the parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions for coke. The degree of production restriction for coke enterprises may be greater than that of steel mills. The short - term supply of coke will remain tight, and it will take time for the seventh round of price increases to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the impact of possible parade - related production restriction policies on the production and transportation of coke and steel enterprises [11] 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: Manganese silicon manufacturers pre - purchased raw material inventory before the parade, and the recent inventory replenishment is coming to an end. The trading atmosphere at ports is cooling down. With the increase in arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has started to decline from its high level [2][16] - **Supply - Demand**: Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel is still at a high level. The resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing in an environment of profit recovery. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [2][16] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support. However, supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and there may be downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long term [16] Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: Industry profits have improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, leading to a gradual increase in ferrosilicon production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [17] - **Demand**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking is still resilient. In the metal magnesium sector, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but downstream enterprises are trying to push down prices, and the magnesium ingot price remains stable overall [17] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the future, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals in the medium - to - long term. The upside potential of the price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and adjustments in electricity costs [17] 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly accumulating, and there are many market sentiment disturbances [2][13] - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand is declining. Although the number of deep - processing orders has increased month - on - month, the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased significantly to a high for the year, indicating speculative purchasing by downstream enterprises. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the sales of intermediate and upstream products have declined significantly [13] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are relatively high. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward when returning to fundamental trading [13] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase [15] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out, and the demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall inventory replenishment sentiment of downstream enterprises is weak, and they resist high prices [15] - **Outlook**: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. After the increase in the futures market, spot trading is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance of production, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed little. There is a large amount of rebar delivery resources arriving at ports, and the inventory of rebar has increased significantly. The inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coil has slowed down, and the inventories of medium - thick plate and cold - rolled coil have increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has declined, and inventory is accumulating, showing off - season characteristics [7] - **Demand**: The speculative sentiment is poor, and the overall spot trading of steel is weak. The export orders for hot - rolled coil have improved, and domestic demand has some resilience [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally in the off - season. Both supply and demand will be affected around the parade. The blast furnace production restriction depends on air quality, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The futures market may fluctuate more violently. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and future attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [7] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly month - on - month, with narrow fluctuations during the week [9] - **Demand**: The profit of electric arc furnaces is acceptable, and daily consumption has increased to a new high for the year. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory in factories has decreased slightly, and the number of available inventory days has dropped to a relatively low level [9] - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel is stable, and demand is strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently in a state where supply is subject to continuous disruptions, and prices are generally strong. With stable fundamentals, there is a possibility of further resonance between macro - level positive factors and the industry. In the short term, before new driving factors emerge, the market will mainly oscillate within the current range [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and limited increase [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to routine maintenance, iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [2] - Outlook: With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production under the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders, which may affect future customs clearance [3] - Demand: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, and the spot market became more cautious [3] - Outlook: With supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term [3] Alloys - Manganese Silicon: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly [4] - Supply: One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances [4] - Outlook: Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak. In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [4] Steel - Core Logic: As the parade date approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions in steel mills. The output of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but inventory continued to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory also continued to accumulate [9] - Outlook: Although the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel - mill production - restriction policies and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions increased. Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to routine maintenance but remained at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [9] - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, and limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9] Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel decreased as market sentiment improved and the willingness to sell declined. The demand increased as the daily consumption of electric furnaces reached a high level in the same period, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production increased slightly. The inventory in factories decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [10] - Outlook: With decreasing supply and increasing demand, and optimistic market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, coke prices oscillated at a high level following coking coal. In the spot market, prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' overall profit returned to near the break - even point, and production remained stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Although iron - water production decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The overall inventory of coke enterprises was low, but some downstream steel mills had tight inventory [10] - Outlook: With a relatively healthy fundamental situation and the start of the sixth round of price increases, the futures market still has support in the short term. Attention should be paid to possible production - restriction policies during the parade [10] Coking Coal - Core Logic: In the futures market, prices oscillated at a high level due to supply disruptions. In the spot market, prices increased. In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production, and some implemented the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders. Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory [3][12] - Outlook: Due to supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal - mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Glass - Core Logic: The demand in the off - season decreased, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased significantly to the highest level of the year, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly. One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances. Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak [13] - Outlook: In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, with weak actual demand, strong policy expectations, and relatively high raw - material prices, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If prices return to fundamental - based trading, they are expected to oscillate downward [13] Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After a round of negative feedback, the price dropped rapidly in the short term and is now at a discount to the spot price. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and production remains at a high level. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - demand level, while the demand for light soda ash is weak [14] - Outlook: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center is expected to decline to promote capacity reduction [14] Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser [3][16] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as supply pressure increases, the upward price space may be limited [16] Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coking - coal futures prices, market sentiment remained positive, and ferrosilicon prices oscillated upward. The cost support for the spot market is strong due to the increase in the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers' profit improves and the enthusiasm for resuming production increases. The downstream demand for steel - making remains resilient, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased steadily [17] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, the fundamentals may have hidden concerns, and the upward price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "shock". Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all have a mid - term outlook of "shock" [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand performance of the black building materials industry is weak, and the prices are in high - level shock. Although the fundamentals of individual varieties change little, there are still certain support factors, and the prices may rebound before the spot pressure appears. The market is mainly dominated by capital behavior, and it is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. Subsequently, the implementation of policies and terminal demand performance should be mainly concerned [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but after the typhoon disturbance, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, and the iron ore port area's total inventory increased, with a limited overall inventory accumulation range [2]. - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen to the highest level in the same period in the past three years. Due to routine maintenance of steel mills, the molten iron output decreased slightly, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2]. - **Outlook**: With limited bearish driving forces in the fundamentals, the future price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [2]. - **Demand**: After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [2]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Subsequently, regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal import conditions should be concerned [2]. 3.3 Alloys Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: The price of coke has been continuously increased, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The manganese ore market is more wait - and - see, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and the port ore price remains firm [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished products remains stable at a high level. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit repair, the resumption process of manufacturers continues to advance, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser [3]. - **Outlook**: The contradictions in the current spot fundamentals are limited. In the short term, the price of manganese silicon is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector [3]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to accelerate the recovery. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production - restriction requirements [15]. - **Demand**: The output of steel products remains stable at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, due to tight supply, magnesium plants' price - holding sentiment remains strong, but high - level transactions in the market are relatively cold, and the game between upstream and downstream in the magnesium market continues [15]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the price needs to be viewed with caution, and the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs should be concerned [15]. 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and 1 production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline of the futures price, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the middle - stream shipments have increased, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. The output is running at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' production has recovered today, and the output is expected to continue to increase in the future [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass. The expected daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has weakened, and the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic restocking [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, after the rapid decline of the price, it is at a discount to the spot price, and it is expected to fluctuate in the future. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Some steel mills have resumed production, and there is a transfer of molten iron. The output of rebar has increased, and the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased [8]. - **Demand**: Affected by the weakening of the typhoon, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, but the inventory continues to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated, showing off - season characteristics [8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution sentiment in the steel and coal industries is still high. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, but the inventory is low, and there are still production - restriction disturbances before the military parade. The short - term futures price still has support. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the steel mills' production - restriction situation and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: This week, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the willingness to ship is low. The arrival volume of scrap steel has continued to decline [9]. - **Demand**: The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the daily consumption has increased to a high level in the same period. In terms of blast furnaces, the molten iron output has decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has also decreased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand has increased. The fundamentals have strengthened marginally, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.8 Coke - **Supply**: After the full implementation of the fifth round of price increases, the profits of coking enterprises have been alleviated, and their production starts have improved. The coke output has temporarily stabilized [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level. Upstream coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and their inventory has been continuously reduced. Mid - stream futures - spot traders have gradually released their goods, and the arrival of goods at downstream steel mills has improved [9]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the short - term price still has support. Some coking enterprises still have the intention to increase the price for the sixth round. Subsequently, the possible military parade production - restriction policy should be concerned [9]. 3.9 Coking Coal - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [11]. - **Demand**: The coke output has temporarily stabilized, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [11]. - **Outlook**: Under the influence of over - production verification of coal mines, the recovery of coking coal supply is expected to be slow. With the poor supply expectation, the market sentiment has warmed up. In the short term, the futures price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most rated as "oscillating". The rated varieties include steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9][10][11][13][14] 2. Core View of the Report - The black building materials market has strong supply contraction expectations and continues to show a relatively strong trend. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly and inventory pressure is not high, factors such as upcoming production restrictions and potential macro - positive news may drive price increases. After the market rallies to a high level, volatility increases, and it is recommended to wait and avoid risks. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][6] 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Steel mill profitability increased, but iron water production decreased in some areas due to rainfall. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, berthing areas, and factories decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction, the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [2] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Coking Coal**: Overall supply is temporarily stable. Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu port reached a high this year. Coke production is stable, and coking coal demand is strong. Although the spot market sentiment has cooled, upstream mines are still reducing inventory. Future attention should be paid to regulatory policies, mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [2] - **Coke**: The price has been continuously raised, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been strengthened. The manganese ore market is in a wait - and - see state, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is resilient, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate [3] Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened due to the continuous increase in coke prices. The downstream demand is resilient, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production may increase rapidly, and downstream demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Glass - In the off - season, demand declines, deep - processing orders decrease, and inventory days increase. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the market is mainly affected by sentiment. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [3][11] Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After a rapid short - term price decline, it is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [6][11] Steel - Affected by coking coal supply disturbances, the futures market is strong. Spot trading is average, and inventory is accumulating. With low inventory and potential production restrictions, the fundamentals may improve, and the price is likely to rise. Future focus should be on production restrictions and terminal demand [7] Scrap Steel - Steel mill arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [8]