Report Industry Investment Rating - Silicon manganese: Volatile [3] - Silicon iron: Volatile [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market consolidated this week. After the downstream pre-holiday restocking ended, the market showed weakness. The silicon iron futures first rose and then declined. Both are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [1][2] - The supply of silicon manganese decreased this week, while the demand increased slightly. The supply of silicon iron increased, and the demand also increased. The overall supply of both is still relatively loose [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - Silicon manganese futures closed at 5,848 yuan/ton on Friday, down 116 yuan/ton from last Sunday. The spot price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [1][5] - Silicon iron futures closed at 5,660 yuan/ton on the last trading day of the week, down 76 yuan/ton from last week. The cash含税 ex-factory price of 72 silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 silicon iron was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week. The daily output was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 335 tons [1][8] - The silicon iron output this week was 114,500 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The national operating rate was 35.33%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week [2][8] Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products this week was 122,500 tons, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week [1][15] - The weekly demand for silicon iron in the five major steel products was 19,900 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week [2][15] Inventory - The inventory of silicon manganese alloy enterprises increased, while the factory inventory of silicon iron decreased [1][2][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" in the medium term [5]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of the peak season, the various links in the industry chain, especially the mid - upstream links, still show seasonal improvement characteristics. As the end of the month and the fourth quarter approach, policy expectations are strengthening. Against this background, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will maintain the current trend, mainly oscillating, with enhanced support for staged upward movement [1][5]. Summary by Related Categories Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: High - level demand provides support, factory inventories increase, and pre - holiday replenishment is obvious. The fundamental pressure is not significant, but the peak - season demand for building materials needs further verification, which limits the upward space. Affected by pre - holiday capital disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. Port trading volume decreased to 111.1 (-43.9) million tons, and the price of PB powder was 795 (+2) yuan/ton [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand both increase again, and steel enterprises have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the spot price. Short - term oscillation is expected. The average tax - free price of broken materials in East China is 2187 (+0) yuan/ton [1][8]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Spot coal prices are rising rapidly, coking profits are continuously shrinking, and mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a new round of price increases. Although steel mills' coke inventories are moderately high, pre - holiday raw material inventories continue to increase, and the pre - holiday bullish expectation in the market is strong. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price at Rizhao Port is 1490 yuan/ton (+40) [1][2][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mine production remains cautious, supply recovery is slow, and the upward height is limited. At the same time, the pre - National Day replenishment by the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low, with strong fundamental support. Pre - holiday coal prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 yuan/ton (+20) [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: During the peak season, the downstream procurement demand is expected to support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is relatively pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still room for the price center to decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The ex - factory price in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (-30) [2][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and firm cost support the price performance, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, there is still downward pressure on the price. The ex - factory price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5330 yuan/ton (0) [2][15]. Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream destocking, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward. The mainstream large - board price in North China is 1210 yuan/ton (+50) [2][10]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - level changes and have wide - range oscillations. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1230 yuan/ton (-) [2][13]. Commodity Indexes - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased. The commodity index was 2249.48 (+0.75%), the commodity 20 index was 2524.42 (+0.75%), and the industrial products index was 2269.30 (+1.07%). The steel industry chain index on the same day was 2054.48, with a daily increase of +0.37%, a 5 - day decrease of -0.06%, a 1 - month increase of +1.22%, and a year - to - date decrease of -2.55% [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are rated as "oscillating"; coking coal is rated as "oscillating on the strong side"; and soda ash is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the short term with a long - term downward price center [5][7][8][9][11][12][13][16][17][18][19]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, but the industry's fundamentals continue to support the prices of furnace materials, which in turn support steel prices. The downward pressure before the festival is limited. In the fourth quarter, the macro and policy aspects are expected to provide upward impetus for the prices of the black building materials sector [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the increase in factory inventory reflects pre - festival restocking. After the spot price weakens, port transactions increase, and the fundamentals are healthy. However, the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals of scrap steel are marginally weakening, but it is expected that it is difficult to form an independent market, and the price will mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Currently, both coke and steel enterprises have certain production profits. Supported by the peak - season restocking demand, the short - term supply and demand are strong. The spot has started a new round of price increases, and the support is relatively strong under the stable rebound of coal prices at the cost end. It is expected that the futures market will remain oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Under the current over - speed inspection, coal mine production remains cautious, and the supply recovery is slow. The upward height is limited. At the same time, the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches before the National Day is good, and the market still has positive expectations for the end - of - month meeting. It is expected that the price will oscillate on the strong side in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The expected downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of manganese silicon, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is rather pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon. Attention should be paid to the downward range of raw material costs [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price performance of silicon iron, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may still be a wave of oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply has not changed. After the downward movement of the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the future. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2][16]. 3.5 Specific Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The peak - season demand recovery is limited, and the pre - festival restocking sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled down. The supply is high, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are contradictory, and the futures market is under pressure. However, the cost end still has certain support, and the downward space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined, and port transactions have increased. The overall supply is stable, and the short - term demand is still supported. The inventory level is moderate. The high - level demand supports, but the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has increased slightly this week, and the demand has decreased slightly. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory available days have rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price mainly follows the finished products [9]. - **Coke**: Some coke enterprises have started to raise prices, and the short - term supply and demand are strong. The raw material cost support is strong, but the coking profit is under pressure. The futures market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price has continued to rebound, and coal mines have many pre - sales orders. The supply recovery is slow, and the restocking demand before the festival is good. The price is expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term [12]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and the fundamentals are still weak. The peak - season demand needs to be verified. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level, and the oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation, and the long - term price center will decline [14][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the price is stable. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the future supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is downward space for the price center after the peak season [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is downward pressure on the price after the peak season [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the US interest rate cut has been implemented and the previous trading logic of interest rate cuts has cooled down, the current furnace charge end of the black building materials sector still has strong demand support, so negative feedback is still difficult to initiate. With the release of post - holiday replenishment demand and the expectation of favorable domestic and foreign policies, the prices of some varieties in the sector are expected to strengthen steadily [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - After the US interest rate cut of 25BP was implemented on the 18th, the policy cooled down briefly, leading to a slight decline in the day - session futures prices. At night, with the hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons, the furnace charge was further supported, and the iron ore price was relatively resistant to decline. In the later period, with the peak - season atmosphere and downstream replenishment before the National Day, the black building materials sector is expected to remain stable, and the prices of sector varieties are expected to be supported [2]. 2. Element - Based Analysis Iron Element - The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment in the middle and late ten - days. The fundamentals of iron ore are still healthy, but the overall peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which may limit the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the downstream inventory available days are at a low level. There is still an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. With the support of stable and rebounding coal prices, the cost support is relatively strong. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Currently, coal mines are cautious in production under over - speed checks, and the supply has limited room for further increase. With the pre - National Day replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the inventory is accelerating the transfer from top to bottom. The price is expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [3]. Alloys - The peak - season expectation supports the manganese - silicon futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [3]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Individual Variety Analysis Steel - The overall spot market trading volume of steel is weak. The production of some regional steel mills has decreased, and the demand for rebar has recovered. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of rebar, and the inventory has increased. The peak - season demand for steel has recovered less than expected, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals of rebar are better than those of hot - rolled coils. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume of iron ore has decreased. The supply is stable, and the demand has increased slightly. The overall inventory is stable. The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which limits the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [8]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the available days of inventory are at a low level. The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally, and it may follow the finished - product steel to face pressure [10]. Coke - There are both voices of price increase and decrease in the market. The overall supply remains at a high level. The demand is supported by rigid demand, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly. As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal has increased slightly, and the supply has limited room for further increase. The downstream has started pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the price will fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [11]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [16]. Silicon Iron - The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "shock - biased upward" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: - Steel: "Shock" [8] - Iron ore: "Shock" [8][9] - Scrap steel: "Shock" [10] - Coke: "Shock" [10][11][12] - Coking coal: "Shock - biased upward" [11][12] - Glass: "Shock" [14] - Soda ash: "Shock" [15][16] - Manganese silicon: "Shock" [17] - Ferrosilicon: "Shock" [18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the US interest rate cut has consolidated the support for the black building materials sector. Although the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the supply - demand structure of black building materials has not been reflected, the positive effects of the US interest rate cut are still present. The black building materials sector is expected to maintain a shock - upward rhythm. The replenishment logic before the end of the month strongly supports the furnace charge end, which in turn supports steel prices. Despite internal differentiation, the overall support for the sector remains strong [2][6]. - In the iron element aspect, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, which limits the upside space of iron ore. Scrap steel follows the finished products and is expected to maintain a shock trend. - In the carbon element aspect, coking enterprises have started to replenish raw materials, and the cost support is strong. The price of carbon elements is expected to remain in a shock state in the short term. - For alloys, although the peak - season expectations support the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be pessimistic in the long - term, and there is downward pressure on prices. - For glass, the current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may be a shock after the mid - stream destocking. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term and a downward trend in the long - term. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak, with better trading at low prices. The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are shrinking, and steel mills have limited willingness to increase production. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and the inventory pressure still exists. - Outlook: The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. Although the macro - environment is warm, the rebar is expected to perform worse than hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The overseas mine shipments have returned to normal, the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, and the overall supply is stable. The demand is supported in the short - term, and the overall inventory level is neutral. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and there is an expectation of pre - festival replenishment. However, the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, so the price is expected to be in a shock state in the short - term [8][9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased slightly, the demand has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short - term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the profits of coking enterprises are under pressure, but the production enthusiasm is still okay. The demand is strongly supported by rigid demand, and the overall inventory of steel mills is at a good level. - Outlook: Coking enterprises have started to replenish raw materials before the National Day, and the cost support is strong. Considering the possible production restrictions in Tangshan and the warm macro - environment, the price is expected to remain in a shock state in the short - term [11][12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: The production of coal mines has basically recovered, and the import is normal. The demand for coking coal has increased, and the inventory pressure is not prominent. - Outlook: Although the production verification of coal is strict, the supply change is limited. With the pre - festival replenishment and good macro - sentiment, the price is expected to be shock - biased upward in the short - term [11][12][14]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, but there is an upward trend in deep - processing orders. The supply uncertainty increases. The fundamental is still weak, and the spot price is easy to rise but hard to fall. - Outlook: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may be a shock after the mid - stream destocking. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline [14]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the long - term suppression still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, and the demand for light soda ash is flat. The mid - stream inventory has accumulated. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the decline of the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. The price is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term and a downward trend in the long - term [16]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak - season expectation still exists, and the futures price has strengthened. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is waiting for the steel procurement pricing. - Outlook: The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the supply - demand situation is expected to be pessimistic in the long - term, and the price center may decline [17]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The downstream demand expectation is warm during the peak - season, and the futures price is strong. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for ferrosilicon is relatively stable. - Outlook: The downward space of the ferrosilicon futures price is limited in the short - term, but the supply - demand relationship will be looser in the long - term, and there is downward pressure on the price [18].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the black metal sector has not yet manifested, while the favorable conditions from the US interest rate cut are maintaining high prices in the sector [1] Group 1: Black Metal Sector - Current production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia have not yet affected the supply-demand structure of black metal products [1] - The US interest rate cut, being the first of the year, aligns with expectations and sets a positive tone for upcoming domestic meetings, suggesting a potential upward trend in the black construction materials sector [1] - Iron ore fundamentals remain healthy, with production recovering and low inventory levels, although demand for rebar during peak season is yet to be validated, limiting the upward price potential for iron ore [1] Group 2: Steel and Raw Materials - The scrap steel market shows no significant contradictions in fundamentals and is expected to follow the trends of finished products, indicating short-term price fluctuations [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing due to cost support, with potential production restrictions in Tangshan's coking steel enterprises, leading to expected short-term price fluctuations [1] - The coal production review is becoming stricter, but supply changes are limited, with downstream restocking beginning and a positive macro sentiment, suggesting a strong short-term price outlook [1] Group 3: Alloy and Glass Markets - The manganese-silicon market is supported by peak season expectations, but long-term supply-demand outlook appears pessimistic, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [1] - The silicon iron market has limited downward space, but the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the long term, leading to price pressures [1] - The glass market is experiencing weak demand, but seasonal and policy expectations may lead to fluctuations, with a need for market-driven capacity reduction in the long term [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is influenced by "anti-involution" dynamics, with the US interest rate cut fostering positive expectations for domestic meetings, supporting sector prices [1] - Inventory replenishment before the end of the month is expected to support raw material prices, with cost support for steel prices, indicating a strong overall market despite sector differentiation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "Oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the traditional peak season deepens, the failure of the building materials peak season has intensified the differentiation between furnace materials and finished products. Furnace materials are stronger than building materials due to strong real - demand and restocking expectations, and provide cost support for building materials. The intra - sector differentiation and overall price support are expected to remain [7]. - The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices, but rebar is expected to perform weaker than hot - rolled coils [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading volume of steel is weak, with rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The trading volume of building steel is weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. Due to shrinking profits, some steel mills have shut down for maintenance. The production of rebar has decreased, and demand has declined, with inventory pressure in Hangzhou. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have returned to pre - parade levels, with improved downstream purchasing sentiment and inventory destocking. The supply of the five major steel products has decreased while demand has increased, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace [8]. - **Outlook**: The steel inventory is moderately high, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: Port trading volume has increased. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil, which is expected to have little impact on annual shipments. The hot - metal production has recovered to over 2.4 million tons per day, supporting short - term demand. The port inventory has increased, the berthing inventory has decreased, and the in - plant inventory has slightly replenished, with the total inventory slightly decreasing and the overall inventory at a moderate level [9]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - festival restocking in the middle and late period. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand of the finished - product end needs further verification, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased, with the available inventory days at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished - product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.4 Coke - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of coke have both increased, with daily production reaching a three - month high and total inventory slightly increasing. Although the supply is becoming more relaxed, the current supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After the futures market has priced in two rounds of price cuts, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply of coke has recovered more than expected, but the hot - metal production has also recovered rapidly. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After two rounds of price cuts have been priced in the futures market, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream steel mills and the hot - metal production during the peak season [12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has basically recovered, with domestic coal mines resuming production and high - level imports from Mongolia. The demand for coking coal is high due to the high - level production of coke. However, after the previous restocking, the current procurement is mostly on - demand, and the spot market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the extent of coal - mine复产 [12]. - **Outlook**: After the parade, coal mines have quickly resumed production and are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. With the arrival of the downstream demand peak season and high - level coke production, the on - demand restocking will still support the coking coal price [13]. 3.6 Glass - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the domestic commodity market has weakened, and the fundamental logic has returned as the delivery approaches. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream lacks restocking ability. Although some upstream manufacturers have promoted sales by raising prices, the supply uncertainty has increased due to potential production - line ignitions and possible shutdowns in the Shahe area. The fundamentals are still weak, and the spot price decline may be limited, with a moderately high futures valuation [13]. - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but there are expectations of the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. 3.7 Soda Ash - **Core Logic**: The upstream inventory of soda ash has decreased, but the supply is still at a high level. The long - term supply pressure remains due to un - cleared production capacity. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, while the downstream of light soda ash has weak restocking sentiment. After the resolution of shipping issues, the mid - stream inventory has accumulated, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16][20]. 3.8 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: A new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers, and although the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price in the short term, the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic in the long - term [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the decline in raw - material costs [17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Core Logic**: The first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The supply has increased, and the demand from the metal - magnesium market is weak. The market supply - demand relationship has hidden concerns [4][18]. - **Outlook**: The stable cost of semi - coke and electricity provides short - term support for the ferrosilicon price. With peak - season expectations, the downward space of the futures price may be limited, but the price center is expected to decline in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", indicating that the expected price fluctuations are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the next 2 - 12 weeks [7][97] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of military parade production restrictions has ended, and enterprises in the industrial chain are resuming production. Hot metal is expected to return to a high level of 240,000 tons per day, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The performance of peak - season demand and domestic and foreign macro - policies will further intensify the sector's fluctuations [7] - Future market focus will revolve around "downstream inventory replenishment", "peak - season demand", and "overseas interest rate cuts", and attention should be paid to the possibility of the sector rising under the resonance of these three factors [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Due to the military parade production restrictions, hot metal production decreased significantly, but since September 4th, blast furnaces in Tangshan have resumed production intensively. It is expected that the impact on hot metal production reduction will be limited, and it is expected to return to a high level next week. The total iron ore inventory has increased slightly. If downstream inventory replenishment starts before the National Day, the fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The low profit of electric furnaces and tight resources are expected to keep the short - term price oscillating [2] 2. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating under demand support. After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the coking coal price [2] 3. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. In the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on the price, and attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. For silicon iron, the current cost still provides some support, but in the long - term, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price center will tend to decline, and attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has weak real - world demand, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulating rapidly. After the military parade, hot metal production may recover, and attention should be paid to the release of short - term inventory replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the price [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and inventory are stable, and there is an expectation of demand recovery. The fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption has decreased slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate due to low electric - furnace profits and tight resources [10] - **Coke**: After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the price [12] - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [12] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is weak, and there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The current cost provides some support, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17]