Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, suggesting a focus on the potential for price increases in the express delivery sector and the valuation recovery in the logistics sector [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to see a price increase in South China, which may lead to a recovery in industry valuations due to reduced price competition driven by "anti-involution" policies [7][23]. - The shipping sector is currently experiencing weak overall market conditions, with a focus on OPEC+ production plans and the potential for price recovery in the second half of the year [16]. - Infrastructure assets in Hong Kong are seen as having room for valuation improvement, particularly in the context of a declining interest rate environment [19]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in passenger traffic, but domestic ticket prices are experiencing a significant year-on-year decline [25]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The shipping market is currently weak, with freight rates for major routes declining. The SCFI index for the East America route dropped by 7.5% to $3,126 per FEU [11]. - OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may influence shipping rates positively in the latter half of the year [14][16]. - The demand for dry bulk shipping is fluctuating, with iron ore and grain transport demand decreasing, while coal imports remain strong [16]. Infrastructure - As of June 2025, the national port cargo throughput reached 1.56 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while container throughput grew by 4.7% [50]. - The report highlights the stable performance of leading highway assets, suggesting a dividend yield returning to around 4% [19]. - The CR450 high-speed train is expected to enhance operational capacity significantly once it enters commercial service [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2024, with a 19.3% increase in business volume in the first half of 2025 [20][23]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards price stabilization due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential price increases expected in August [23]. - Major players like ZTO Express and YTO Express are recommended for investment due to their market positioning and growth potential [23]. Aviation - Passenger traffic in the civil aviation sector has shown a week-on-week increase of 3.1%, but domestic ticket prices have seen a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing the aviation market and improving valuations [25]. - Key airline stocks recommended include Air China and Southern Airlines, with a focus on their recovery potential [25]. Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a slight decrease in air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index down by 3.8% year-on-year [26]. - China National Freight is highlighted for its potential non-operating income from asset sales, making it a recommended stock [26].

南都讯 7月29日下午，广州市统计局发布今年上半年全市经济数据：根据广东省地区生产总值统一核算 结果，2025年上半年广州市地区生产总值15080.99亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长3.8%。 上半年规上工业增加值同比转正 上半年，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长0.7%。三大支柱产业中，汽车制造业在新旧动能转换关键 期继续承压，增加值同比下降5.7%，但在部分车企加快产品转型和新车型持续热销带动下，降幅比一 季度收窄0.7个百分点；新能源车产出加快，累计产量同比增长9.5%，比一季度提升8.8个百分点；电子 产品制造业、石油化工制造业增势平稳，实现增加值分别增长1.6%和6.3%。"两新"政策效应持续释 放，带动电气机械及器材制造业、专用设备制造业增加值分别增长11.3%、7.5%；家用电冰箱、电风 扇、智能手机等家电、电子产品快速产出，产量保持两位数较好增长。新一代信息技术产业培育壮大， 集成电路制造业增加值增长30.0%，液晶显示模组、模拟芯片、工业机器人产量分别增长1.5倍、19.5% 和19.0%。重点布局的低空经济产业加速成长，航空、航天器及设备制造业增加值增长17.1%，民用无 人机产量快速增长3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of Daniao Logistics by Shentong, emphasizing the focus on the express delivery and civil aviation sectors to mitigate internal competition [1] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a demand growth of over 20% in 2024, with a 19.3% increase in business volume in the first half of 2025 [23] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy may ease price competition and facilitate valuation recovery in the express delivery industry [23] Summary by Sections Shipping - The dry bulk market is showing signs of improvement, with a focus on the impact of the US-China trade talks on the shipping sector [6] - The report notes that the shipping rates for the East US route have decreased by 6.5% this week, while the European route has seen a slight increase of 0.5% [10][11] - The report recommends monitoring companies such as COSCO Shipping and Yang Ming Marine Transport [6] Infrastructure - The report indicates that the yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds is 1.7% and 2% respectively, suggesting that there is still value in dividend assets [18] - It highlights the stable performance of leading highway assets and recommends stocks like China Merchants Highway and Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [19] - The report mentions that Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics is expected to enhance market share and optimize competition [22] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy and the easing of price competition [23] Aviation - The report notes a decrease in passenger traffic due to adverse weather conditions, with a 1.4% drop in the week of July 18-24 [24] - It highlights the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in the aviation sector, which aims to stabilize competition and improve valuations [25] - Recommended stocks include Air China and China Southern Airlines [25] Logistics - The report states that the average daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port increased by 16.6% week-on-week [26] - It mentions that the logistics company China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group is expected to confirm significant non-recurring gains from asset sales [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in express delivery business volume, with a 19.3% increase in the first half of 2025, and anticipates a double-digit growth for the entire year [6][20] - The shipping sector shows improved market conditions, particularly in the dry bulk market, with rising freight rates and a positive outlook due to extended tariff grace periods between the US and China [6][16] - Infrastructure assets in Hong Kong are expected to see valuation improvements, with stable performance from leading highway assets and a focus on port assets as stable cash flow investments [6][18] - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady increase in passenger volume, although revenue performance remains under pressure due to competitive pricing [6][21] Summary by Sections Shipping - The dry bulk market is experiencing a rebound, with significant increases in freight rates for Panamax vessels and improved cargo volumes from Australia and South America [6][15] - The container shipping sector is facing mixed results, with some routes seeing rate declines while others remain stable due to port congestion [6][11] - The oil shipping market is expected to improve in Q3, with OPEC+ increasing production [6][14] Infrastructure - As of May 2025, national port cargo throughput reached 1.59 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while container throughput grew by 5.4% [6][51] - The CR450 high-speed train is set to enter commercial operation by the end of 2026, promising enhanced operational efficiency and energy savings [6][17] - The report suggests that leading highway assets are entering a favorable investment zone with stable dividend expectations [6][18] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to grow over 20% in 2024, with a 15.8% year-on-year increase in June 2025 [6][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes to combat excessive price competition in the industry [6][20] - Major players in the express delivery market are showing varied growth rates, with SF Express leading in volume growth [6][19] Aviation - Passenger volume in civil aviation increased by 1.8% week-on-week and 3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [6][21] - The report notes that while passenger numbers are rising, revenue performance is pressured by competitive pricing strategies [6][21] - Recommendations include focusing on major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Air China for potential investment opportunities [6][21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in cross-border air freight prices, with a 4% week-on-week increase in the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index [6][23] - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025 [6][23]

Economic Growth and Consumption - In the first half of 2025, domestic demand became a crucial pillar supporting GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% to economic growth [2][3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable acceleration in the second quarter [3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and automobiles, with substantial growth rates observed [4][5] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and a growth of 6.6% when excluding real estate development [6][7] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although real estate development investment saw a decline of 11.2% [7] - The potential for fixed asset investment remains significant, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and effectiveness in manufacturing and infrastructure investments [8]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on positive fundamental outlook and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the dry bulk market's performance, a focus on the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure assets, an upward trend in the aviation industry's fundamentals for 2025-2026, and potential price competition and valuation recovery in the express delivery sector for 2025 [1][7][18][20]. Shipping - The container shipping market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases on the US routes, while the dry bulk market, particularly for Panamax vessels, has seen a notable rise in rates due to increased demand from coal and grain shipments [7][11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade agreements between the US and other countries, which could impact shipping volumes [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that Hong Kong infrastructure assets still have room for valuation improvement, with stable earnings and dividend expectations from leading highway assets [18]. - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has slightly increased, suggesting continued investment interest in dividend-paying infrastructure assets [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2024, with a continued double-digit growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - The report notes a recent recovery in express delivery prices following a period of intense price competition, supported by regulatory measures against "involution" in the industry [20]. Aviation - Key performance indicators in the aviation sector are on the rise, with passenger volumes increasing and a low growth rate in supply, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue levels [21][74]. - The report recommends several airlines based on their performance metrics, including China Southern Airlines and Air China [21]. Logistics - The logistics sector shows a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes, with stable short-haul freight rates [22][87]. - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025, which could positively impact dividends [22].

Tax Policy Impacts - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act (OBBB) aims to extend and expand tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently[1][7] - The Act repeals provisions from the Biden administration aimed at reducing traditional energy consumption, benefiting traditional energy companies[1][7] Indirect Support for Infrastructure and AI - OBBB does not directly fund traditional manufacturing or infrastructure projects but focuses on tax policy and deregulation, which may indirectly support infrastructure and AI development by reducing corporate costs[2][8] - Permanent full expensing provisions for equipment, R&D, and plants allow companies to deduct the full cost of capital investments immediately, reducing financial burdens and encouraging investment in advanced manufacturing[3][9] Opportunity Zones and Investment Attraction - The Act expands Opportunity Zones to attract private capital into economically distressed areas, enhancing investment in projects like smart city technology and logistics hubs[4][10] - Deregulation measures simplify the approval process for infrastructure projects, potentially accelerating project timelines[4][10] Economic Growth and Local Industry - Tax cuts and capacity expansion incentives are expected to enhance the profitability and competitiveness of domestic industrial enterprises in the U.S. market[5][11] - Increased production capacity is anticipated to improve market share and meet local manufacturing demands, while personal tax reductions may boost overall consumption[5][11] Investment Recommendations - Companies that may benefit from the policy's tax cuts and required equipment investments include Vistra, Constellation, Talen Energy, GE Vernova, Schneider Electric, Eaton, Vertiv, Honeywell, Cummins, and Caterpillar[6][12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth, changes in U.S. policy, and geopolitical uncertainties[6][13]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant progress with 102 major projects expected to meet their targets by the end of the year [1][5] - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1][3] - The average economic growth rate during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% to this growth [1][3] Economic Growth and Development - The total economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - China's manufacturing sector has consistently added over 30 trillion yuan annually, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing economy for 15 consecutive years [3][4] - The country has the largest modern infrastructure networks globally, including highways, high-speed rail, and urban transit systems, which support rapid economic and social development [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic consumption has been the main driver of economic growth, with an average contribution rate of 56.2% over the past four years, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the previous five-year period [5] - Investment's contribution to economic growth averages 30.2%, focusing on optimizing supply structures and addressing long-term needs [5] - The completion of major infrastructure projects, such as the Guiyang-Nanning high-speed rail, enhances domestic circulation and supports economic stability [6] Social Welfare and Employment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes social welfare, with over one-third of its 20 major indicators focused on improving people's livelihoods, the highest proportion in any five-year plan [7] - Urban employment has stabilized at over 12 million new jobs annually, with significant contributions from the service sector [7] - The country has established the world's largest education, healthcare, and social security systems, with high participation rates in basic insurance programs [7][8]

Economic Stability and Growth - The overall economic operation in the capital has been stable and improving since May, driven by a series of policies aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy [2] Industrial Performance - From January to May, the city's industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to January to April [3] - Advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries showed strong growth, with a 16.9% increase, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The electronics and automotive sectors grew by 27.2% and 13.9%, respectively [3] - The information service industry revenue increased by 13.6% year-on-year, up 1.9 percentage points from January to March [3] - The Beijing Stock Exchange's trading activity has been robust, with the North Exchange 50 Index rising nearly 36% year-to-date, leading among major market indices [3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment grew by 17.8% from January to May, driven by "two heavy" projects and equipment upgrades [4] - High-tech industry investment surged by 81%, while infrastructure investment rose by 16.2% [4] - Total market consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a 0.3 percentage point improvement from January to April [4] - The integration of commerce, culture, and tourism led to a 4.9% growth in service consumption, with nearly 100 large cultural and sports events held in May, resulting in a 32.1% increase in visitor numbers at key scenic spots [4] - The number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises in May increased by 11.5% year-on-year, a 22.8 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [4] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate remained low, with measures taken to meet the employment needs of college graduates [5] - In May, consumer prices decreased by 0.1%, while service prices rose by 0.4% [5] - The city plans to leverage national policy tools to create a favorable development environment, focusing on stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality economic growth [5]

Economic Overview - The national economy maintained stable operation in May, supported by more proactive macro policies, with stable production demand and overall employment situation [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points respectively [2] - Key products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles experienced significant production growth of 40.0%, 35.5%, and 31.7% year-on-year [3] - From January to May, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [3] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.2 in May, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 56.5 [5] - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [5] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [6] - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 49,878 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [8] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. However, real estate development investment declined by 10.7% [9] Trade Performance - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 38,098 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [10] - Exports were 22,767 billion yuan, up by 6.3%, while imports decreased by 2.1% [10] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [11][12] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to May was 5.2% [12] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May [13]