新单采购放缓。同时，国内光伏装机连续两月下滑，终端需求疲软难以对价格形成有力支撑。不过，N型料 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 需求增长将部分抵消P型过剩，可能对价格有一定的支撑作用。多晶硅继续受到了基本面情绪压制，但近期 免责声明 市场依旧有消息再影响多晶硅市场，下周预计整体呈现高位震荡态势。操作建议，逢低布局多单 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 多晶硅产业日报 2025-09-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | | 7 | | | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | 有色板块研发报告 多晶硅 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 恐有回调风险，但远期向上方向不变 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 10 页 多晶硅 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：多晶硅期货 2511 合约价格走势 表 1：多晶硅产业链现货价格变动情况 | | 日期 | | | | 9月26日 9月25日 9月24日 9月23日 9月22日 较7月末 较8月末 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅现货价格（元/kg） | N型致密料- 平均价 | 51.05 | 51.05 | 5 1 | 51.15 | 51.15 | 12.20% | 6.35% | | | N型颗粒硅 - 平均价 | 5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

国信期货硅产业链季报 工业硅、多晶硅 政策交易后期，价格震荡前行 / 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 三季度季度工业硅显性库销比已经下降至 200%以内，这主要是因为交割库 存消化幅度较大，另外因为多晶硅企业开工率上行，增加了对原材料工业硅的需 求。到四季度，西南地区中小企业会陆续停炉，但产量能否快速下降还要看西北 地区开工率变化。在下游需求方面，三季度多晶硅企业生产利润尚可，多晶硅产 量高企，但国内光伏终端需求偏低迷，后期多晶硅想要维持供需平衡必须下调开 工率，对原材料的需求量也会有所减少。有机硅方面，企业生产亏损依然严重， 地产需求低迷且尚未有大规模刺激政策，有机硅终端需求难有改善，后期有机硅 DMC 产量可能维持在 21 万吨左右，对原材料工业硅需求偏弱。铝合金产量保持 稳定增长态势，终端汽车需求旺盛，对工业硅需求尚可。出口需求在下半年大爆 发，但四季度可能是前高后低的情况。基于当前工业硅企业的生产情况、供需数 据推算四季度工业硅行业显性库销比环比三季度可能会上行，但可能不会达到二 季度的水平。工业硅价格可能呈现震荡走势，综合季节性来看工业硅期货价格波 动区间可能为 ...

2025年09月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：纯镍累库与矿端矛盾博弈，中期波动率或增加 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 工业硅：情绪明显降温，关注盘面下行驱动 | 11 | | 多晶硅：上游库存累库，关注政策落地节点 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：进口矿放量，碳酸锂去库放缓，区间震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 28 日 镍：纯镍累库与矿端矛盾博弈，中期波动率或增加 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：印尼镍矿矛盾频出增加市场担忧，精炼镍陡峭累库与弱预期共振压制。印尼消息面或明 显削弱空方信心，增加空头风险：其一，因违反印尼林业许可证规定，Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷 的矿区被接管（总面积 47000 公顷），约占其总矿区面积的 0.3%，影 ...

市场分析 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 供需数据变化不大，工业硅多晶硅宽幅震荡运行 工业硅：商品情绪回落，工业硅盘面偏弱运行 价格：9月26日当周，本周工业硅期货高开低走。现货方面，市场供需变化不大，工业硅现货成交价格继续小幅上 涨。据SMM统计。截至9月25日，SMM华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600元/吨，周环比上涨150元/吨，441#硅在9600-9800 元/吨，周环比上涨100元/吨，3303#硅在10500-10600元/吨，周环比上涨100元/吨。 供应：本周供应端变化不大，周度产量持平，根据SMM统计，样本厂家周度产量5.82万吨，环比持平。目前金属 硅总炉数 796 台，本周金属硅开炉数量与上周相比减少 1 台，截至 9月 25 日，中国金属硅开工炉数 310 台，整 体开炉率 38.94%。 需求：下游铝合金方面，整体产能利用率小幅回落，根据百川统计，本周铝板带箔产量 209335 吨，产量较上周减 少。铝棒产量 294525 吨，产量较上周减少约 210 吨。有机硅方面，本周开工率在 71.2%，本周浙江，山东，河 北装置维持降负生产，华东地区另有装置因突发事故进 ...

Group 1: ABS Market Overview - In August 2025, the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) market saw 99 new registrations with a total scale of 875.92 billion yuan [1] - The top three ABS underlying assets by registration scale were accounts receivable (250.89 billion yuan), micro-loan debts (213.01 billion yuan), and financing lease debts (189.73 billion yuan) [1] - As of the end of August 2025, there were 2,573 ABS in existence with a total scale of 21,891.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Securities Monitoring and Regulatory Actions - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange monitored "*ST Yushun" closely from September 22 to September 26, addressing 176 abnormal trading behaviors [2] - The exchange reported two major company events for verification and submitted two suspected illegal cases to the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2] Group 3: Silicon Material Production and Market Trends - In October, the production of polysilicon exceeded expectations, with two companies reporting a decrease while four reported an increase [3] - Inventory pressure in the polysilicon market is becoming evident, with expectations of continued accumulation unless downstream demand remains high [3] Group 4: Corporate Leadership Changes - Merck Group announced a leadership transition, with Kai Beckman set to take over as CEO from Belén Garijo on May 1, 2026 [3] - Xiamen International Bank approved the appointment of Wang Fenghui as Chief Information Officer [6] Group 5: Financial and Regulatory Developments - Baoli Tianheng's subsidiary was questioned by Yunnan's medical insurance bureau regarding the high price of a medication, which raised concerns about pricing practices [3] - Jingliang Holdings received an administrative regulatory decision from Hainan's Securities Regulatory Bureau for revenue recognition issues involving 2.99 billion yuan [8] Group 6: Corporate Transactions and Listings - Moller Thread's IPO application was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for various AI and chip development projects [7] - Wanxing Technology submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The global commodity market exhibited a mixed performance this week, with precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals showing strong results, while some industrial products and agricultural commodities faced downward pressure [1] - Key factors influencing market sentiment include Federal Reserve policy expectations and economic data, alongside geopolitical risks and changes in supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Precious and Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a cumulative increase of over 2% this week, driven by rising risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [2] - The market anticipates the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, which diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated assets and directs funds towards precious metals [2] - Copper prices experienced a significant breakthrough, with both Shanghai and international copper prices rising over 3%, primarily due to a sudden event at the world's second-largest copper mine [2] Group 3: Fuel Oil Market - Fuel oil futures, especially high-sulfur varieties, performed notably well this week, supported by tightening supply-demand fundamentals and cost factors [3] - Russian refining facilities have been under attack, leading to a sharp decline in fuel oil exports, which alleviates supply pressure on high-sulfur fuel oil [3] - In Asia, demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound, while summer power demand in the Middle East continues to provide market support [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market exhibited wide fluctuations this week, with intense competition between bullish and bearish factors [4] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory rose to 2.57 million tons by the end of July, indicating significant supply-side pressure [4] - Delays in the EU's zero-deforestation regulation and rising international crude oil prices provide some support for palm oil prices [4] Group 5: New Energy Materials - The price of polysilicon futures continued to decline this week, as market trading logic returned to fundamental realities [5] - Supply pressure remains the primary factor suppressing prices, with industry inventory continuing to accumulate [5] - Demand-side performance is concerning, as the "export rush" phenomenon in Q3 has depleted Q4 photovoltaic demand, leading to an unfavorable outlook for end consumption [5]

智通财经APP获悉，国元国际发布研报称，总体来看，多晶硅价格短期以稳为主。后续走势主要取决于 需求改善，以及四季度供给端减产政策的有效实施，进而带来供需格局的实质性改善。初步判断2026年 行业有望回归正常盈利。中长期来看，头部公司技术成本能耗优势显著，将成为产能出清后的受益者， 建议重点关注新特能源(01799)和协鑫科技(03800)。 产量方面，目前在产多晶硅企业数量维持在10家，整体开工率保持相对低位，硅料供应总体稳定。9月 国内多晶硅排产预计13万吨左右，目前对比下游需求仍然过剩。行业龙头计划在节后对川、滇基地进行 停产或减产。部分地区产能检修或降开工率，10月排产预计将下行。需求方面，临近假期，市场采购清 淡，主要在于下游龙头企业前期已大量囤货。在终端需求不及预期的背景下，下游当前的主要策略是优 先消耗自身库存，整体多晶硅签单节奏有所放缓。 该行提到，多晶硅持续超过40万吨的高位库存，在供需仍然过剩形势下，仍有小幅累积趋势。一方面， 市场需求不振，供应持续过剩，高库存累积;另一方面，行业自律减产叠加国家"反内卷"强政策预期支 撑下，硅料厂商极力挺价，出现多晶硅政策预期对峙高库存，市场博弈情绪进一步 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 库存仍有压力，盘面维持震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-25，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于9035元/吨，最后收于9055元/吨，较前一日结算变化（65） 元/吨，变化（0.72）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓259965手，2025-09-25仓单总数为50066手，较前一日变化 141手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8900-9100（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8900-9100（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计9月25日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比持平。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较上周环 比持平，社会交割仓库42.3万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比持平。近期新疆地区部分工业硅货物 陆续向天津等地区转移，故不同地区之间库存变化大。国庆节前下游备货需求增加，仓库货物进出量较好。（不含 内蒙、 ...