中信证券研报表示，2026年，周期和成长仍然是驱动农业板块的主要投资逻辑。周期视角来看，在市场 化亏损以及行政去产能合力下，2025年四季度以及2026年上半年产能去化或呈现加速态势，2026年猪价 或震荡上行。此外，畜禽产业链上持续推荐经营能力领先、穿越周期的公司。种子种植领域推荐品种资 源优势强劲的公司。成长视角来看，宠物板块国内需求稳健，国货势头强劲，2026年下半年或继续迎业 绩高增。果蔬种植方面，预计蓝莓红利仍将持续。重点推荐种植面积持续增长、种植效率持续提升、品 牌和渠道持续进步、出海节奏加快的蓝莓龙头。功能糖领域迎超级代糖大单品。 ...

中信证券研报认为，2026年，周期和成长仍然是驱动农业板块主要投资逻辑。周期视角来看，在市场化 亏损以及行政去产能合力下，2025年第四季度以及2026年上半年产能去化或呈现加速态势，2026年猪价 或震荡上行。此外，畜禽产业链上持续推荐经营能力领先、穿越周期的公司。种子种植领域推荐品种资 源优势强劲的公司。成长视角来看，宠物板块国内需求稳健，国货势头强劲，2026H2或继续迎业绩高 增。果蔬种植方面，预计蓝莓红利仍将持续。重点推荐种植面积持续增长、种植效率持续提升、品牌和 渠道持续进步、出海节奏加快的蓝莓龙头。功能糖领域迎超级代糖大单品。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（183） 优于大市 生猪行业反内卷有序推进，看好海内外牧业大周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 21 日生猪价格 11.67 元/ 公斤，周环比-0.4%；15kg 仔猪价格约 318 元/头，周环比+0.5%。 原奶：Q4 奶牛去化有望加速，原奶价格年底或迎拐点。11 月 13 日，国内主 产区原奶均价为 3.02 元/kg，周度环比维持，同比-3.2%。 豆粕：短期到港供给宽松，中长期供需支撑走强。11 月 21 日，国内大豆现 货价为4015 元/吨，周环比+0.08%，豆粕现货价为3070 元/吨，周环比-0.90%。 玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，价格有望维持温和上涨。11 月 21 日国内玉 米现货价 2227 元/吨，周环比+0.72%。 橡胶：短期价格预计趋稳，中期看好景气向上。11 月 21 日，天然橡胶现货 价为 14800 元/吨，周环比+0.0%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 21 日，鸡苗价格 3.48 元/ 羽，周 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the structural transformation of China's pet consumption market, indicating a shift from incremental growth to stock competition, entering a quality growth era from 2023 to 2025 [1][2] - The pet market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in urban dog and cat consumption by 2024, with the cat economy growing at 10.7%, becoming the main driver of market growth [1][16] - The consumption structure is categorized into four core segments: food, supplies, health, and services, with food accounting for the highest proportion [1][19] Market Trends - The pet market is transitioning to a "quality growth" era, with the urban dog and cat consumption market expected to reach 300 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase [16] - The dog consumption market is valued at 155.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.6%, while the cat market is valued at 144.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.7% [16] - The average annual consumption per pet dog is 2,961 yuan, up by 3.0% from 2023, while for cats, it is 2,020 yuan, increasing by 8% [16][27] Consumer Demographics - The pet ownership demographic is becoming younger and more decentralized, with post-90s and post-00s individuals becoming the main pet owners, and the proportion of male pet owners in lower-tier cities significantly increasing [1][27][28] - The proportion of pet owners in first-tier and new first-tier cities has decreased from 47% to 41%, indicating a shift towards lower-tier cities as a major source of new growth [27][28] Consumption Structure - The pet economy has established four core segments: - Food: 52.8% of spending, with staple food as the core [19] - Supplies: Moving towards smart and scenario-based iterations [19] - Health: Medical and health care spending accounts for 28%, driven by pet aging and increased preventive awareness [22] - Services: Grooming and beauty services account for 41% of store revenue, with high-end experience services showing significantly higher repurchase rates [24] Brand Growth Strategies - The platform provides a multi-phase growth strategy for pet brands, including incubation, growth, and maturity stages, focusing on user insights, supply chain upgrades, and innovative marketing [2][10] - Successful case studies from brands like Maifudi and TOPTREES demonstrate effective strategies in food, high-end grain, and pet health sectors, validating the "user-product-marketing" integrated operational logic [2][10] Decision-Making Changes - The purchasing process is evolving from impulsive, single-platform decisions to multi-channel, long-chain decision-making, with price-performance ratio and trust becoming key factors [33][34] - Consumers are increasingly seeking solutions to specific problems rather than just products, indicating a need for brands to align their messaging with consumer queries [39][40] Future Directions - The report suggests that brands should focus on full-link conversion strategies, multi-dimensional user operations, and collaborative layouts across the four core segments to drive growth [48][49]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming and pet food industries, highlighting potential growth opportunities and ongoing challenges in supply and pricing [2][4][6]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 11.60 CNY/kg as of November 20, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% [29][30]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.77% in October, indicating ongoing supply pressures [20][6]. - Profitability remains a concern, with losses reported at -135.90 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -234.63 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 21 [33][38]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.15 CNY/kg as of November 21, up 0.42% week-on-week [39][36]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in overseas markets is creating uncertainty in the supply chain, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry in the long term [36][37]. Animal Health - The animal health industry is expected to rebound as demand for biological products increases, driven by a recovery in livestock profitability and inventory levels [44]. - Recent developments in vaccine research, particularly for African swine fever, are anticipated to stimulate interest in the sector [44]. Seed Industry - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn have shown slight increases, with wheat averaging 2505 CNY/ton and corn at 2280 CNY/ton as of November 21 [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing food security and promoting the adoption of biotechnology in the seed industry [47]. Pet Industry - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, with e-commerce sales up 19% year-on-year in October [55]. - Notable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates a strong market presence for domestic brands, with significant sales increases reported for several companies [56]. - Export figures for pet food show a decline, with October exports at 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the impact of tariff disruptions is expected to be limited [54][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Core Insights - The Chinese pet market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.3%, making it the fastest-growing pet market globally [1] - The number of pet owners among the post-2000 generation is expected to exceed 20 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 164% and accounting for 25.6% of total pet owners [1] - The average annual spending per pet is currently 2,419 yuan, with a shift towards a "parenting-style" approach to pet ownership among younger generations, leading to increased demand for personalized pet products and services [1] Industry Trends - The pet industry in China has seen a compound growth rate of 10% over the past six years, significantly outpacing the growth of total retail sales [1] - The market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to surpass 400 billion yuan by 2027, with a cumulative growth of approximately 33% over three years [4] - Key drivers of this growth include economic development, rising incomes, urbanization, demographic changes, shifts in consumer attitudes, and improvements in policy and social environments [4] Investment Opportunities - Five pet companies presented at the investment conference, focusing on areas such as pet healthcare, food, smart hardware, and service chains [4] - There is potential for deep collaboration in the pet industry across various dimensions, including technological innovation in pet healthcare and nutrition, supply chain integration, and international market expansion [5] - Companies are encouraged to focus on niche markets, develop high-end functional products, and leverage technology to enhance operational efficiency and user engagement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pet market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3%, making it the fastest-growing pet market globally [3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - Over the past six years, the compound growth rate of the Chinese pet industry has reached 10%, significantly outpacing the growth of retail sales [3]. - The rise of the post-00s generation is a new growth engine for the pet market, with an expected increase in pet ownership among this demographic to over 20 million by 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 164% [3][6]. - The average annual spending per pet is currently 2,419 yuan, with a shift towards a "parenting-style" approach to pet ownership among the post-00s, leading to increased demand for personalized pet products and services [3]. Group 2: Investment and Innovation - The recent pet industry innovation investment conference in Wuhan attracted numerous investment institutions, indicating strong interest in the sector [3]. - Five pet companies presented at the conference, focusing on key areas such as pet healthcare, food, smart hardware, and service chains, showcasing innovation in the industry [6]. - The Chinese pet market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to surpass 400 billion yuan by 2027, driven by economic growth, rising incomes, urbanization, demographic changes, and evolving consumer attitudes [6]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Local companies are encouraged to focus on niche markets, continuously develop functional and high-end products, and establish technological barriers [7]. - With over 60% of the pet market being online, companies should leverage big data, AI, and social media to enhance operational efficiency and implement precise marketing strategies [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese pet market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3%, making it the fastest-growing pet market globally [1] - The pet industry in China has seen a compound growth rate of 10% over the past six years, significantly outpacing the growth of retail sales [1] - The rise of the post-2000 generation is a new growth driver, with an expected 20 million pet owners by 2024, representing a 164% year-on-year increase [1] Market Dynamics - The pet market in China is projected to exceed 300 billion RMB in 2024 and is expected to surpass 400 billion RMB by 2027, indicating a cumulative growth of approximately 33% over three years [4] - Five key drivers are identified for the explosive growth of the pet economy: economic growth and income increase, accelerated urbanization, demographic changes, shifts in consumer attitudes, and improvements in policies and social environments [4] Consumer Trends - The average annual spending per pet is currently 2,419 RMB, with the post-2000 generation showing a preference for "parenting-style" pet care, leading to increased demand for personalized pet products, medical care, insurance, grooming, photography, and social activities [1] - The penetration rate of pet ownership among the post-2000 generation is 24%, compared to only 9% for the post-1980 generation, highlighting a significant shift in pet ownership demographics [1] Industry Innovations - Five pet companies presented at the investment conference, focusing on key areas such as pet healthcare, food, smart hardware, and service chains [4] - Innovations include advancements in medical technology for pets, development of new pet food brands, and the introduction of smart hardware to enhance pet care experiences [4] Strategic Recommendations - Companies are encouraged to deepen collaboration across various dimensions, including technological research, industry chain synergy, and international expansion [5] - There is a strong emphasis on developing high-end, functional products and leveraging technology to create competitive advantages [5] - With over 60% of the pet market being online, businesses should utilize big data and AI to enhance operational efficiency and engage in precise marketing strategies [5]

截至发稿，天元宠物市值为36亿元。 公司董事会同意聘任林敏子女士为公司证券事务代表，任期自第四届董事会第九次会议审议通过之日起 至第四届董事会届满之日止。 2025年1至6月份，天元宠物的营业收入构成为：宠物用品占比50.72%，宠物食品占比46.55%，其他主 营业务占比2.62%，其他业务占比0.11%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访黄群慧：既要重视AI赋能千行百业，也要考量其对就业 的替代效应和带来的收入极化 每经AI快讯，天元宠物（SZ 301335，收盘价：28元）11月21日晚间发布公告称，经公司董事长、总裁 薛元潮先生提名，并经公司第四届董事会提名委员会第一次会议资格审查通过，公司董事会同意聘任叶 青先生为公司副总裁、董事会秘书，任期自第四届董事会第九次会议审议通过之日起至第四届董事会届 满之日止。叶青先生被聘任为公司董事会秘书后，董事长、总裁薛元潮先生将不再代行公司董事会秘书 职责。 （记者 贾运可） ...