亚洲交易时段早盘，韩国首尔综指高开1.6%，美元和美股期货双双走低，投资者开始为美国资产定价更高风险溢价。 韩国首尔综指高开1.6%，标普500指数期货下跌0.4%，美元指数下滑0.2%。由于日本假期，亚洲现货市场债券交易暂停，但美国国债期货走低。 黄金和白银上涨，而油价下跌，投资者同时在评估美国与伊朗达成核协议的可能性。亚洲股市指数上涨0.5%，主要受科技类重磅股涨幅推动。 AT Global Markets首席市场分析师Nick Twidale表示："我们对特朗普已经有很多经验了，我们认为他不会善罢甘休。不确定性增加以及围绕特朗 普下一步行动的问号，盖过了关税降低和潜在回报的任何积极因素。" 周一早盘的市场走势表明，投资者正开始为美国资产定价更高的风险溢价，美国贸易政策缺乏明确性可能令全球前景蒙上阴影。 据央视新闻，美国最高法院20日裁决美国政府征收大规模关税政策"越权"后，美总统特朗普立即祭出新的行政令，宣布自2026年2月24日起，对来 自所有国家和地区的商品加征10%的进口关税。21日，特朗普又宣布，把这项新征收的"全球进口关税"税率由10%提升至15%。贸易政策缺乏明确 性可能导致全球前景蒙上阴影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's large-scale tariff measures lacked clear legal authorization, potentially requiring the government to refund over $100 billion in tariffs to thousands of U.S. importers, leading to an unprecedented refund process [1][2]. Group 1: Legal and Financial Implications - The Supreme Court's decision is expected to trigger a complex and lengthy process, with thousands of companies seeking to reclaim the tariffs they paid, which could take months or even years [2]. - Trump expressed uncertainty about how the refund process would work, indicating that litigation might be necessary to resolve the issue, potentially extending over several years [3][5]. - The refund process will be managed by lower courts and the U.S. International Trade Court, with the Customs and Border Protection and the Treasury Department executing it [10]. Group 2: Financial Data and Company Involvement - The estimated range of tariffs collected by the U.S. government is between $1.15 trillion and $1.75 trillion, with over 1,000 companies already filing claims for refunds [8][10]. - Companies involved in the lawsuits include major brands such as Costco, Reebok, and Goodyear, as well as international firms like South Korea's Hankook Tire and Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries [8]. Group 3: Political and International Reactions - The ruling has elicited cautious responses from U.S. allies, with the EU and UK expressing a desire to understand the implications of the decision on global trade [11][14]. - Canadian officials welcomed the ruling, viewing it as a reinforcement of their position against the tariffs, although business leaders remain cautious about the long-term implications [14].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant drop in Bitmine's stock price by approximately 48% in Q4 2025, major Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley have substantially increased their holdings in the company [1] Group 1: Institutional Holdings - Morgan Stanley, the largest shareholder, increased its stake by about 26% to over 12.1 million shares, valued at $331 million [1] - ARK, the second-largest shareholder, raised its holdings by 27% to over 9.4 million shares, worth $256 million [1] - Other major institutions also increased their investments, including BlackRock (up 166%), Goldman Sachs (up 588%), Vanguard (up 66%), and Bank of America (up 1668%) [1] Group 2: Bitmine's Ethereum Holdings - Bitmine is currently the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, with a total of 4.37 million ETH, valued at approximately $8.69 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will gradually rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and increased exposure to gold by private investors in response to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Central banks are increasing their gold purchases as a strategy to diversify reserves and hedge against economic uncertainties [1] - Private investors are also increasing their gold exposure in anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a significant risk of a downturn in the U.S. stock market, particularly the Nasdaq index, which has already retreated about 5.2% from its recent high of approximately 24,300 points, indicating a potential for further declines [1] - The Nasdaq index is facing multiple risk factors, including high valuations of AI tech giants and a record high in margin debt, which could lead to a larger correction if funds begin to withdraw [1] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind optimism, particularly regarding the AI sector's profitability and tightening liquidity, while managing their positions carefully to mitigate risks associated with overvalued tech stocks [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that systemic funds may sell off hundreds of billions of dollars in stocks in the coming weeks, indicating a new phase of market volatility [2] - The report highlights that trend-following funds have issued sell signals for the S&P 500 index, with potential sell-offs reaching up to $80 billion if the index continues to decline [2][3] - The current market conditions are fragile, with deteriorating liquidity and changes in options positioning that could exacerbate price volatility [2][3] Group 3 - A potential sell-off in the U.S. stock market could lead to various spillover effects, including an increase in the VIX index, which measures market volatility [4] - The U.S. dollar is expected to rise as a safe haven, while non-U.S. currencies may decline [5] - Industrial commodity indices, particularly oil, may experience a downturn, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are already in a bear market [6] - Precious metals, especially silver, are likely to be affected, with recommendations to secure profits rather than attempt to bottom-fish [6] Group 4 - It is advised to remain in cash and wait for better market conditions before making any investment decisions, particularly for those holding long positions [7]

Group 1 - The proportion of actively managed large-cap mutual funds outperforming their benchmarks has reached the highest level since 2007 according to Goldman Sachs [1] - This trend indicates a significant shift in the performance dynamics of large-cap funds, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [1] - The data reflects a growing confidence among investors in actively managed funds as they seek to capitalize on market movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future strength of the Renminbi (RMB) is essential for its development into a powerful currency, which is a key element for building a strong financial nation [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of a Strong Currency - A strong currency is crucial for a financial power, characterized by its widespread use in international trade, investment, and as a global reserve currency [2]. - The RMB's moderate strength will facilitate its broader use in global trade and encourage international capital to hold RMB for investments [2]. - A weak currency may lead countries to reduce their holdings of that currency in foreign exchange reserves, while a strong RMB could increase its share in global reserves [2]. Group 2: Financial Institutions - Strong financial institutions are necessary for a financial power, defined by their comprehensive services, high operational efficiency, and strong risk management capabilities [3]. - The current global competitiveness of Chinese financial institutions is relatively weak, partly due to the low global usage of the RMB [3]. - Sustained moderate strength of the RMB could enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese financial institutions by increasing their RMB-denominated assets and liabilities abroad [3]. Group 3: International Financial Centers - A strong international financial center is vital for a financial power, capable of attracting global investors and influencing international pricing systems [4]. - Shanghai's international financial center has not yet reached the level of New York or London, partly due to insufficient foreign participation and the RMB's weaker valuation [4][5]. - Historical evidence suggests that a currency must maintain strength over time to support the development of a leading international financial center [5]. Group 4: Central Banks - A strong central bank is essential for effective monetary policy and macro-prudential management, which helps prevent systemic risks [6]. - A weak currency can hinder the internationalization of the RMB and reduce its acceptance and influence globally [6]. - A relatively strong RMB supports the central bank's functions and enhances the credibility of the currency [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - There are sufficient reasons for the RMB to appreciate moderately, despite pressures from external factors [7]. - The RMB's exchange rate should be based on supply and demand, but policy considerations are also necessary to achieve favorable economic and financial development [7].

积水成渊，聚沙成塔，做积累的事。 2025年对冲研投公众号累计发布560篇文章， 我们从 中精选出69篇精华文章，希望在您需要的时候，可以帮助到您。 未来每年，我们都会将相关优秀文章汇总整理于此，精彩待续...... 01 宏观经济研究篇 #2025年精选 全球市场颤抖：美联储或将迎来"鹰派"新掌门——凯文·沃什 或许是当前最权威的宏观分析：卡尼达沃斯演讲（文末附全文） 从抢油到夺岛：解析特朗普的"唐罗主义" 如果鲍威尔选择留下来继续硬刚呢？ 大宗商品资源争夺战：东西半球划洋而治？ 5000字深度报告 | "反内卷"与"供给侧"改革底层逻辑是康波大周期！ 供给侧改革2.0来了吗？ 让美元的归美元，美债的归美债 以伊战争中让世界惶恐的霍尔木兹海峡 世界新秩序 关于中国经济的重大转折 对等关税的"表"与"里" Trump就职典礼：布局之招 抓捕马杜罗，特朗普意欲何为？ "十五五"的新提法 关税战风云再起，怎么看？ 中美周期共振or背离？ 02 商品期货研究篇 #2025年精选 当商品交易变成"故事会"：谁在主导价格？ 在贪婪与恐惧中轮回：金银暴跌背后，如何避免成为市场叙事切换时的代价？ 关于农产品对商品牛市的追赶 ...

高盛首席经济学家哈哲思（Jan Hatzius）在一份报告中表示，在全球经济增长方面，受关税影响消退、 财政支持和金融环境宽松的支撑，预计将超过普遍预期。他预计，多数经济体的通胀率将更接近目标水 平，这反映出关税和官方定价的影响减弱，以及薪资和租金增长放缓。尽管高盛认为近几个月科技行业 的就业人数显著下降，但该行并不认为会出现由人工智能（AI）驱动的就业末日。美国的经济指标令 人鼓舞，经住房扭曲因素调整后的1月份核心CPI同比涨幅为2.6%，创下后疫情时代的低点。高盛预 计，在美联储主席鲍威尔剩余的任期内，美联储将维持利率不变，但预计在可能由美联储主席提名人凯 文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）领导的委员会领导下，将在6月和9月降息25个基点。 责任编辑：王永生 高盛首席经济学家哈哲思（Jan Hatzius）在一份报告中表示，在全球经济增长方面，受关税影响消退、 财政支持和金融环境宽松的支撑，预计将超过普遍预期。他预计，多数经济体的通胀率将更接近目标水 平，这反映出关税和官方定价的影响减弱，以及薪资和租金增长放缓。尽管高盛认为近几个月科技行业 的就业人数显著下降，但该行并不认为会出现由人工智能（AI）驱动的 ...

高盛策略师预测，受英国央行降息推动，2026年英国国债将上涨，政府借贷成本将降至2024年以来最低 水平。 该行欧洲高级市场策略师George Cole表示，基准10年期英国国债收益率预计将到今年底达到4%。他认 为，40个基点的降幅基于通胀回落促使英央行采取行动，其影响将盖过政治风险引发的担忧。 Cole在致客户报告中称，"尽管英国风险溢价和政治不确定性可能在即将举行的地方选举期间持续居高 不下，但我们认为有利的宏观环境将推动国债收益率走低。" 由于顽固通胀使英国央行决策者在降息方面保持谨慎，英国的借贷成本高于其他国家。投资者还担心该 国的财政状况，本月早些时候，由于首相基尔·斯塔默面临被迫下台的风险，而潜在接替者可能会寻求 更多借款，英国国债收益率一度飙升。 Cole表示，随着5月地方选举临近，政治不确定性持续存在，预计斯塔默领导的工党将表现不佳，这可 能使风险溢价维持在较高水平。不过，他指出，这些波动平均仅推动债券收益率上升30个基点，且此类 波动通常持续时间较短。 由于顽固通胀使英国央行决策者在降息方面保持谨慎，英国的借贷成本高于其他国家。投资者还担心该 国的财政状况，本月早些时候，由于首相基尔·斯塔 ...