Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historic highs, driven by global geopolitical changes and investor demand for safe assets [2][3]. Precious Metals - On December 24, spot gold surpassed $4,519 per ounce, while spot silver exceeded $72 per ounce, both setting new historical records [1]. - As of the latest report, London spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs of $4,519.81 and $4,547.5 per ounce, respectively, with both showing over 72% increase year-to-date [2]. - London spot silver rose by 3.43% yesterday and continued to climb, reaching a peak of $72.094 per ounce today, with COMEX silver futures hitting $72.24 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 150% increase year-to-date [2]. - Analysts suggest that factors such as international trade dynamics and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving the prices of precious metals, alongside a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical shifts [2]. Base Metals - Copper, regarded as a global economic indicator, reached a new high of $12,159.5 per ton on the LME [3]. - The tight supply situation is expected to support higher copper prices, with emerging demand from AI investments and traditional sectors anchoring price movements [3]. - However, U.S. copper import tariffs may introduce volatility in trading patterns [3]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the A-share market this year, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 87.36% year-to-date, leading among 31 industry indices [4][5]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous mining index has seen a remarkable increase of 97.29% this year, indicating strong market performance [4][5]. - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and Ping An Securities recommend focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, anticipating continued price increases driven by strong demand and weakening dollar credit [4][6]. - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry has improved, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, and a significant increase of 50.81% in the third quarter alone [5][6].

有色股小幅高开，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨3.18%，报15.27港元；五矿资源(01208)涨3.11%， 报8.94港元；中国白银集团(00815)涨2.82%，报0.73港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨1.68%，报 37.62港元；招金矿业(01818)涨1.45%，报33.66港元。 消息面上，近期，有色金属牛市持续演绎。贵金属方面，12月24日，现货黄金史上首次站上4500美元/ 盎司，今年累计上涨超70%；现货白银涨则突破70美元/盎司关口，续创历史新高；现货铂金、现货钯 金也涨势强劲。此外，LME铜盘中突破12000美元/吨，为该期货历史首次。 对于这一轮有色金属价格强势上行的原因，中信建投（601066）研报指出，主要是美国11月CPI超预期 降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修。黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等 工业金属亦表现强势。华龙证券指出，在地缘对抗升级、全球经济增长失速、资源民族主义抬头背景 下，有色金属景气度持续提升，主要金属品种价格持续走高。该行认为金属景气度有望维持。 ...

12月23日，贵金属、工业金属齐涨，山东黄金涨超6%，中钨高新、厦门钨业、云南锗业、中矿资源、中金黄金 等跟涨。矿业ETF（159690）涨1.71%，实时价格1.906元刷新上市以来新高。 消息面上，金价继续刷新历史新高，首次突破每盎司4465美元，此前一个交易日上涨2.4%，创下一个多月以来 的最大单日涨幅。交易员押注美联储明年将再次降息，低利率环境将对贵金属有利。 华龙证券认为，价格锚历史性变动，趋势仍未结束，投资需求决定后续空间。黄金与长期美债实际利率的负相 关框架解释力逐步弱化，其背后是美元及美国信用的弱化，黄金作为避险资产的性质得到加强，成为全球范围 内最佳避险资产。 矿业ETF（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，聚焦铜、黄金、稀土、铝、锂等关键金属资源。前十大成份股覆 盖北方稀土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、赤峰 黄金等细分产业链龙头公司。 此外，工业金属价格景气持续。上周，LME铜上涨2.75%LME铝上涨2.80%，沪锡周涨幅6.98%。 华龙证券指出，2026年前后，精炼铜将或出现供需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/22 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 92315 11814 7.79 三月 93220 11810 7.86 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.00 -1750.70 现货出口 1151.20 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23150 3042 7.61 三月 23095 3073 5.50 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.43 -2493.35 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21820 2885 7.56 三月 22230 2925 7.53 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.35 -2272.48 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/22 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119400 14652 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.09 -1178.71 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/22 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upstream resource disruptions and midstream smelting capacity issues continue, while resilient demand from new energy and emerging industries like AI opens up long-term growth potential. A loose monetary environment is expected to drive a resonance between macroeconomic factors and fundamentals [1] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the weakening of the US dollar and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance gold's monetary attributes, while a weak dollar provides upward momentum for industrial metals. Supply constraints are becoming a core logic for industrial metals, with copper and aluminum facing resource constraints or capacity bottlenecks [1] - For energy metals like cobalt and lithium, significant improvements in supply and demand are anticipated due to the implementation of policies in major producing countries and the clearing of overseas capacities, leading to an upward shift in price levels [1] - In the precious metals sector, rising US fiscal issues and political risks support gold's safe-haven attributes, with a bullish outlook on gold price levels [1] - Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see accelerated price elasticity release driven by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining and processing of resources such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1]

Group 1 - The copper industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and an improving supply-demand balance, indicating a potential super cycle for copper [1] - In the aluminum sector, macroeconomic sentiment is favorable, with leading aluminum processing companies reporting a slight week-on-week increase in operating rates by 0.3% to 62.3%, benefiting from year-end demand driven by automotive policy changes [1] - The lithium sector shows strong demand, but seasonal supply declines have led to a decrease in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels also decreasing; the cobalt sector faces tight upstream raw material supplies and higher prices [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are seeing price increases due to optimistic liquidity expectations, with silver experiencing significant gains due to tight balances and low inventory levels [1] - The price trends for light and heavy rare earths are diverging, with light rare earths benefiting from both policy and demand, while heavy rare earths are experiencing price declines due to marginally eased supply [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the mining and processing of precious and industrial metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous mining industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yiliang Chihong, a leading state-owned enterprise in the non-ferrous mining sector in Yunnan Province, emphasizes compliance and integrity in its operations, contributing significantly to local economic development and achieving an A-level tax credit rating for five consecutive years [1][7]. Compliance and Internal Control - Compliance is regarded as the lifeline of the enterprise, with the A-level tax credit seen as a starting point for continuous management and operational standardization [3][9]. - The company has established a comprehensive compliance management system covering finance, procurement, and safety production, ensuring accurate tax calculations and timely tax declarations through a full-process control system [3][9]. Tax Collaboration and Economic Impact - Yiliang Chihong actively collaborates with local tax authorities to understand key policies such as R&D expense deductions and environmental tax exemptions, which have supported compliance and optimized decision-making [5][11]. - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the company saved several hundred million yuan through policy compliance, which has bolstered key projects like safety standardization and mechanization upgrades, contributing to the development of a modern, efficient, and green mining operation [5][11]. Social Contribution and Community Engagement - The company’s continuous A-level tax credit rating has enhanced its market trust and expanded cooperation opportunities, positioning it as a vital force in local economic development [5][11]. - In the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Yiliang Chihong's total industrial output value exceeded 9 billion yuan, ranking eighth in tax contributions among enterprises in Zhaotong City, thus serving as a stabilizing force for the regional economy [5][11]. - The company has also invested over ten million yuan in social welfare, supported more than 200 impoverished students, created over a thousand jobs, and contributed to rural revitalization efforts [5][11]. Future Outlook - Yiliang Chihong aims to continue its commitment to compliance and integrity, striving for high-quality development while contributing to the prosperity of the local economy [7][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of non - ferrous related industries will prioritize high - quality development, resolve supply - side involution, reduce ineffective supply, and control smelting - end production capacity. Copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will continue to benefit from the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and the booming development of emerging and future industries. The industrial pattern of non - ferrous and new energy varieties will be further improved and optimized, and price trends will be more boosted by the supply and demand sides [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Importance of the 15th Five - Year Plan Period" The 15th Five - Year Plan period is crucial for basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a connecting link between the past and the future. It is necessary to consolidate advantages, break through bottlenecks, and strengthen weak points. Adhering to high - quality development is particularly important for the non - ferrous metal industry pattern [6]. 3.2 "Main Goals and Industrial System Planning of the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Main Goals**: The main goals include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deep - seated reforms, a notable improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. High - quality development is prioritized, and the non - ferrous metal industry will focus on high - quality development, addressing supply - side issues and strengthening effective demand. The goal of a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance highlights the importance of science and technology, which will drive the high - quality development of the non - ferrous new energy industry [8][11][12]. - **Industrial System Planning Clues for Non - Ferrous Metals**: In the industrial system planning, traditional industries such as mining and metallurgy related to non - ferrous metals will continue supply - side reforms. Emerging and future industries, such as new energy and quantum technology, will drive the demand for non - ferrous and new energy materials. Non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will benefit from the development of both traditional and emerging/future industries [14][15][16]. 3.3 "Prospects for Non - Ferrous Metal Terminal Industries in the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Wind Power, Photovoltaic and Grid Energy Storage**: The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system. The scale of new energy installations is expected to reach a new high, and the demand for energy storage and grid investment will increase to support the consumption and stable operation of new energy [17][20]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes green development. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to further increase. Although the growth rate may decline, new energy vehicles will remain an important driver of the domestic economy [21][23]. - **AI Industry**: The 15th Five - Year Plan has higher requirements for scientific and technological self - reliance. The development of the AI industry will drive the growth of semiconductor chips and increase the demand for energy storage in AI data centers, becoming a new growth engine for non - ferrous and new energy materials [24].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing strong performance, driven by robust demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions, with significant price increases expected for various metals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest closing date, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 68.86%, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries [4]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous metal mining index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 78.50%, indicating better relative elasticity [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Growth - The non-ferrous metal industry reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% for the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [4][5]. - The profitability metrics for the non-ferrous mining index indicate a net profit growth of 49.48% for the first three quarters and 55.62% for the third quarter, with an average ROE of 12.14% [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The current valuation of the non-ferrous metal mining index stands at 22.99 times PE-TTM, which is at the 37% historical percentile, reflecting a 24% expansion in valuation this year, primarily driven by profit growth rather than valuation expansion [5]. - The index covers various sub-sectors including industrial metals, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, providing a diversified investment approach that mitigates price volatility risks [8]. Group 4: Future Demand Drivers - The demand for copper in the new energy sector is expected to be supported by the development of wind and solar power, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure, amidst a global energy structure adjustment [3]. - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" and increased gold holdings by certain countries is anticipated to sustain demand for precious metals, further accelerated by the liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from stable traditional demand and emerging new demands from robotics and low-altitude economies, with domestic supply controls enhancing the industry's global position [3].

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2026 investment strategy meeting held by CICC is "Seizing Opportunities and Planning for the Future," focusing on market themes and attracting over 4,500 participants [1] - CICC's Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, indicates that the US-China economic relationship has entered a "fragile balance," suggesting that while both countries have enough leverage for negotiations, tail risks still exist [2][3] - Miao believes that the current gold bull market may not be fully realized, presenting good medium to long-term allocation value, especially in light of the accelerating reconstruction of the international monetary order [2] Group 2 - Miao highlights that during technological revolutions, growth often outpaces value, but the current AI revolution may see more frequent style rotations in the stock market due to increased uncertainty in economic activities [3] - The analysis of market styles shows that since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, US stocks have consistently outperformed value stocks, while non-US markets have seen value outperform growth, indicating that not all economies will benefit equally from technological advancements [3] - CICC's Chief Analyst for Nonferrous Metals, Qi Ding, points out that the deepening trend of de-globalization and high US interest rates are leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs, reflecting a "de-dollarization" trend [4] Group 3 - Qi anticipates that basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will perform well in 2026 due to rising demand from AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure on the supply side [4] - The report suggests that strategic metals such as cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, rare earths, and antimony will maintain a bull market due to increasing control and stockpiling by resource countries, leading to a systematic price increase [4] - Overall, the nonferrous metals sector is expected to experience significant development opportunities, driven by rising prices and supportive policies for critical mineral resources [4]