Economic Performance - Jiangsu's GDP reached 6.7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, maintaining the highest economic increment in the country [1] - The province's foreign trade import and export totaled 2.81 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with actual foreign investment at 11.54 billion USD, both ranking first in the nation [1] Reform and Support for Private Economy - Jiangsu has established a dedicated bureau for private economic development, implementing 20 policies to support private enterprises, contributing over 64% to economic growth [2] - The province's industrial output value from private enterprises increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] Investment and Financing - From January to July, private capital in the water, electricity, gas, and heat sectors increased by 36.8% on top of an 84.9% rise last year [3] - The provincial financing coordination mechanism has provided over 2 trillion yuan in loans to support nearly 10 million small and micro enterprises [3] Innovation and Financial Mechanisms - Suzhou has introduced a "four-loan linkage" mechanism, issuing loans totaling 890.61 billion yuan from October last year to August this year [4] - The digital RMB transaction volume in Suzhou exceeded 9 trillion yuan, accounting for 70% of the national total [4] Open Economy and International Cooperation - Jiangsu is enhancing its high-level openness, combining "bringing in" and "going out" strategies to create a dual open hub [5] - The province has launched over 450 institutional innovation achievements through its free trade zone, with recent approval for a comprehensive development plan for the biopharmaceutical industry [5][6] Urban-Rural Integration and Infrastructure Development - Jiangsu is advancing urban-rural integration, with 460,100 agricultural transfer populations receiving housing support through public rental and guaranteed rental housing [8] - The province is implementing a comprehensive management system for urban infrastructure, enhancing safety and intelligence in urban management [9]

人工智能将"+"到科学技术、产业发展、消费提质、民生福祉、治理能力、全球合作6大重点领域。 8月26日，《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》（以下简称《意见》）正式发布。《意见》围绕前 述六大重点领域，深入分析人工智能对各行业各领域范式变革影响，前瞻谋划"人工智能+"工作着力 点。其中，《意见》首次布局了智能原生新技术、新业态、新模式，也首次提出第一、二、三产业全要 素智能化转型发展路径。 同时，《意见》提出了2027年、2030年、2035年三个阶段目标。到2027年，率先实现人工智能与6大重 点领域广泛深度融合，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超70%，智能经济核心产业规模快速增 长，人工智能在公共治理中的作用明显增强，人工智能开放合作体系不断完善。到2030年，我国人工智 能全面赋能高质量发展，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超90%，智能经济成为我国经济发展的 重要增长极，推动技术普惠和成果共享。到2035年，我国全面步入智能经济和智能社会发展新阶段，为 基本实现社会主义现代化提供有力支撑。 国家信息中心大数据发展部人工智能处处长刘枝对21世纪经济报道记者表示，上述三个阶段的目标立足 实际，逐 ...

扩大内需和新质生产力的整体性跃升有望成为"十五五"的主线，彼此相互牵引推动经 济实现高质量发展。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 一、"十五五"时期的宏观环境 经济增长速度是五年规划的首要阶段性目标。与以往的五年规划不同，"十四五"规划并未提出明确的经济增长目标，而是要求"保持在合理区间、各年度 视情提出"，主要原因是当时的经济增长面临公共卫生事件带来的高度不确定性。 对于"十五五"规划而言，设定明确的年均经济增长目标是必要的、有条件的。 一方面，这有助于向市场释放积极信号，稳定社会预期。另一方面，根据 已有文献的预测，2026-2030年我国经济潜在经济增长率仍有5.1%左右。其中，国家信息中心预测"十五五"和"十六五"时期我国潜在经济增速分别为 5.01%和4.50%。 考虑到实际经济增速通常略低于潜在经济增长水平， 预计乐观情形下，"十五五"时期将年均增长指标设定为"5%左右" ，为2035年目标的实现打下坚 实基础。 从外部环境看，"十五五"时期大国竞争、大国博弈可能会进一步加剧。 2021年以来，全球地缘政治风险指数中枢较"十二五"和"十三五"时期出现抬 升，其波动明显加剧。与"十四五"时期相比， ...

Group 1 - The Thai government is preparing a series of measures to mitigate the impact of US tariffs and enhance national competitiveness [1] - Proposed measures include stimulus initiatives, accelerated public investment budget disbursement for infrastructure projects, and tax reduction policies to boost domestic consumption [1] - The government plans to allocate a budget fund of 100 billion Thai Baht to support various projects [1] Group 2 - Tax measures will be implemented to help businesses reduce costs and increase liquidity, such as speeding up export tax refunds and extending tax payment deadlines for affected companies [1] - Regulatory reforms are planned, including modifications to Thai laws regarding import tariffs on US goods and adjustments to import quotas and health standards [1] - Structural regulatory reforms will aim to improve the investment environment by removing unnecessary licenses, updating labor and investment laws, and expanding digital systems [1]

数据还显示，构成商业景气指数的制造业、服务业、建筑业和贸易4个主要领域的当前表现指标环比均 有所下降。 慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特表示，数据反映出德国经济复苏依然乏力，尽管企业对未来展 望相对乐观，但对当前业务状况评价趋于消极。 新华财经柏林8月25日电（记者车云龙张毅荣）德国慕尼黑经济研究所25日公布的数据显示，因企业对 未来数月前景预期改善，经季节调整后，德国8月商业景气指数从上月的88.6点升至89点，连续第八个 月改善。 荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基认为，企业信心改善可能与德国近期公布的财政刺激措施 有关。考虑到二季度德国国内生产总值环比下降0.3%，以及美国关税政策持续冲击出口，德国经济能 否保持动力尚不明朗。 慕尼黑经济研究所商业景气指数被视为德国经济发展的风向标，对观察德国经济形势具有重要参考价 值。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

谁能想到，俄乌战争打到现在，看起来饱受创伤的欧洲，居然也因祸得福，偷偷地赚取了一 大笔的乌克兰红利。 最近，一年一度的美国杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，欧洲央行行长拉加德的一席话，听得让人心惊肉跳。 她在讲话中提到：疫情后外国出生工人比例的大幅增加，帮助欧洲降低了通胀率，而经济增长速度却没 有大幅放缓。 她甚至举例说：没有这些外国工人，德国的GDP就得比2019年还要低6%，西班牙的经济复苏也难以想 象。 她可能只是基于经济现状进行的具体而专业的分析，但却不小心暴露出一个残酷的现实： 欧洲这几年享受了大把的乌克兰人口红利，来自乌克兰的廉价工人有效地帮助欧洲抵御了疫情后的经济 疲软。 为什么说这些外国工人主要是乌克兰人呢？ 因为这几年，欧洲主要涌进去的外国工人就是乌克兰人。 庞大的欧洲人口流动。 2022年2月，俄乌冲突爆发，数百万乌克兰人迅速向西逃到了中西欧国家。 比如，要乌克兰人学习本国语言、学习工作技能，希望他们自食其力，依靠自己养活自己。 说白了，欧洲人盯上了乌克兰人的劳动价值。 他们先是沿着边境线跑到了波兰、匈牙利等国，再不断向西，到了西欧、西南欧、北欧等地。 战争初期，支持乌克兰成为欧洲最大的政治正确，各国 ...

罗志恒/文 一、"十五五"时期的发展阶段和国内外形势 从经济看，逆全球化愈演愈烈，全球经济运行逻辑继续从效率转向安全，部分国家政府对经济的干预力 度上升，全球分工不再按照比较优势的原则进行，效率进一步下降，产业链更加支离破碎；全球经济增 速下行的同时债务日渐高企，财政陷入继续扩张与重建空间的两难境地，全球债务危机仍有可能发生。 从社会看，全球不同经济体之间以及同一经济体内部不同群体间的贫富分化差距越来越大，社会撕裂、 价值观对立、矛盾多发、极端情绪滋长。从国际秩序看，进入到二战后新旧秩序交替和重构时期，经济 互信基础的削弱进一步导致地缘政治冲突多发频发，丛林法则逐步取代规则意识，动辄百年一遇的政治 经济事件此起彼伏，"无规则状态"导致国防军事成本被动上升，要么挤压经济和福利支出，要么推升债 务。 国际形势演化和发展阶段转变对中国的发展产生了深刻影响：美国作为在位霸权国家对中国的打压将持 续升级，内部中国面临长期支撑中国经济发展的出口、房地产两大动力同时走弱，需求不足是主要矛 盾。既要充分认识到中国的制度优势、市场优势、人才优势和供应链优势，这是我们坚决斗争的底气， 但同时也要居安思危、未雨绸缪。 从外部发展环 ...

本周全球主要大类资产涨跌互现。深证成指（+4.57%）涨幅最大，上证 指数（+3.49%），CBOT豆油（+2.95%），IPE布油（+2.51%）涨幅居前；新西 兰元兑人民币（-1.92%）跌幅最大，韩国综指（-1.76%），日经225（- 1.72%），澳元兑人民币（-1.19%）跌幅居前。 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 海外市场周观察（0818-0824） 鲍威尔在全球央行年会定调宽松预期 本周美股整体先抑后扬，周五美股受鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会转鸽信号 驱动大幅走高。周初市场因对经济数据和美联储政策的不确定性而表现反 复，周五鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议转鸽，其表示尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业 市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息，会后市场几乎完全定价9月降息，并 且年内将降息两次，美债收益率与美元指数回落，美股大幅反弹，道指攀升 至年内新高。下周需重点关注7月核心PCE通胀数据，若低于预期，美股降息 交易或将延续。 经济数据方面：（1）美国至8月16日当周初请失业金人数为23.5万人， 略高于前值和预测值；（2）美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为53.3，高于 前值49.8和预测值49. ...

Domestic Macro Policy - New policy financial tools are set to be implemented, focusing on promoting the healthy development of the private economy and enhancing consumption potential[3] - The State Council emphasizes the need for comprehensive measures to release domestic demand potential, including fiscal and financial support[4] - The implementation of a loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators has been announced, with a maximum loan subsidy of 1 million yuan per entity[12] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report indicates a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for rate cuts[14] - Personal consumption loans will enjoy fiscal interest subsidies starting September 1, 2025, with a subsidy rate of 1% per year, covering loans under 50,000 yuan and significant purchases[16] - The Ministry of Finance has announced that childcare subsidies will be exempt from personal income tax starting January 1, 2025[16] Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, indicating a temporary easing of trade tensions[19] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential reduction of 150 to 175 basis points from current levels[23] International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with two rate cuts anticipated for the year[21] - The risk balance in the U.S. economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks to employment, prompting discussions on adjusting policy stances[21] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.27% over the past week, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices saw declines of 0.58% and 0.36%, respectively[24] - Gold prices rose by 1.12% in the same period, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets[25]

Core Viewpoint - The "Skills Illuminate the Future" initiative in Shaanxi aims to enhance vocational skills training from 2025 to 2027, focusing on employment and talent development in key industries [1][2] Group 1: Vocational Skills Training - Shaanxi plans to conduct large-scale vocational skills training, targeting 1 million subsidized training sessions during the initiative [1] - The initiative will emphasize training in high-demand sectors such as elderly care, advanced manufacturing, and modern services [1] Group 2: Targeted Talent Development - Each year, Shaanxi aims to train over 20,000 skilled workers in the elderly care sector, implementing a tiered subsidy policy to promote training and employment synergy [1] - The initiative will also focus on training approximately 3,000 high-skilled workers annually in manufacturing, digital skills, and service sectors [1] Group 3: Leadership and High-Skill Talent - Shaanxi plans to cultivate around 300 leading talents in advanced manufacturing and modern services, which is expected to drive the training of approximately 150,000 high-skilled workers [1] - The initiative includes a project-based training approach for industries facing significant labor shortages [1] Group 4: Policy Support for Enterprises - The government supports enterprises in establishing training centers and provides subsidies for technician training [2] - Policies will be coordinated to enhance employment opportunities and provide skill enhancement subsidies for eligible individuals [2]