Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, as the chemical industry faces a slowdown in capital expenditure and an approaching cyclical turning point [1] Group 1: Beneficial Sectors - Recommended sectors include pesticides, urea, soda ash, filament, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, China's counter-cyclical policies are expected to boost domestic demand, making sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical attractive [1] Group 2: New Material Development - The development of new productive forces, self-control, and industrial upgrading are emphasized as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary development direction for China's chemical industry [1] - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: High Shareholder Returns - High-quality companies with substantial shareholder returns are expected to continue their revaluation journey, particularly state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas petrochemical sector, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and leading companies in the MSG/feed amino acid industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on specific sectors within the chemical industry that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend and the upcoming economic cycle shift, while also highlighting the importance of new material development in the context of national competition [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for sectors such as pesticides, urea, soda ash, long fibers, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical are suggested for investment as they may help stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Development Focus - The report emphasizes the development of new productive forces, self-sufficiency, and industrial upgrades as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary focus for the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Specific attention is drawn to the continuous development of semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: Quality Enterprises - High shareholder returns from quality enterprises are expected to continue their revaluation journey, with a focus on leading state-owned enterprises in oil and gas, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and amino acid industries for feed and flavoring [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese stock market, focusing on the transition to a valuation recovery and expansion cycle, driven by factors such as the decline in risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and economic transformation certainty [1][3][4]. Market Predictions - The stock market is expected to challenge ten-year highs by 2026, with a broad valuation reshaping across various sectors, particularly in emerging technology, manufacturing, and financial sectors post-economic stabilization [1][4]. - Short-term predictions indicate lithium carbonate prices may peak at 87,000 CNY/ton in November 2025, with a potential drop to around 75,000 CNY/ton by early 2026. Long-term expectations suggest a price range of 60,000-70,000 CNY/ton for 2026 [1][5]. Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is currently at a low point, with net profits hitting a 20-year low. However, a decrease in capital expenditure and potential demand recovery may improve the industry's outlook by 2026. Recommended stocks include leading companies in coal chemicals, spandex, and soda ash [1][7][8]. Transportation Sector Opportunities - The aviation and oil transportation sectors are highlighted as having significant investment potential. The aviation industry benefits from market-driven ticket pricing and a slowdown in fleet growth, while oil transportation is supported by an increase in crude oil production and geopolitical factors. Recommended companies include China National Airlines, Spring Airlines, and COSCO Shipping Energy [1][2][9][11]. Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a significant increase in demand, with global energy storage demand projected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2026. The overall lithium battery production is anticipated to rise from 2,100 GWh in 2025 to 2,700 GWh, leading to a demand increase of 400,000 tons of lithium carbonate [5][6]. Public Utilities Sector - The public utilities sector is experiencing stable conditions, with optimistic long-term price expectations for the northern region. Companies in thermal power, hydropower, and cost-effective wind and solar power are recommended for investment [1][29][30]. Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector faces challenges, with companies expecting to resolve historical issues over the next three years. However, new projects show higher profit margins, and the focus is shifting towards profitability rather than scale. The property management sector is also under pressure due to rising costs and collection difficulties, but there are opportunities for high-quality service providers [22][24]. Construction Industry Outlook - The construction industry is entering a phase of potential recovery, with expectations of policy support in the coming months. Companies involved in traditional infrastructure and resource sectors are recommended for investment [28]. Steel Industry Performance - The steel industry is showing positive performance, with leading companies exceeding expectations. The outlook for 2026 suggests a gradual recovery in demand, continued supply contraction, and improved cash flow for leading firms [21]. Summary of Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in various sectors, including: - **Chemical Industry**: Hualu Chemical, Huafeng Chemical, and Boyuan Chemical [8][10]. - **Aviation**: China National Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [11]. - **Public Utilities**: Companies in thermal and hydropower sectors [30]. - **Construction**: China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various industries.

Core Viewpoint - The current expansion phase of the spandex industry is nearing its end, with future capacity additions concentrated among leading companies, despite a low demand environment in 2024 [1][4]. Industry Overview - The global spandex production capacity is projected to grow from 203,000 tons in 2000 to 1,750,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.4%, and over 90% of this capacity is concentrated in Asia [3]. - China's spandex industry has experienced rapid growth, expanding from 89,000 tons in 2003 to 1,350,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 14% [4]. Demand Trends - China's spandex consumption is on the rise, with apparent consumption increasing from 121,000 tons in 2005 to 1,012,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.8% [5]. - The demand for spandex is driven by trends in fashion and comfort, with applications expanding into various sectors, including automotive interiors and medical supplies [5]. Production Cost Structure - The cost of raw materials accounts for approximately 40% of spandex production costs, with PTMEG and pure MDI being the primary raw materials [2]. - The control of non-raw material costs is a significant source of competitive advantage for spandex manufacturers [2].

Group 1: Industry Position and Market Dynamics - The spandex product prices and profit levels are currently at historical lows [2][4] - The industry inventory is around 50 days, while the company's inventory is approximately 20 days [3][4] - The spandex market is expected to see limited price rebound in the short term due to supply-demand factors, but long-term demand is projected to grow steadily [3][4] Group 2: Company Expansion and Production Plans - The company has no new expansion plans beyond the ongoing 150,000-ton spandex project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2][3] - The PTMEG project is progressing as per the original plan [3] - The company is focusing on its core polyurethane industry chain development and aims to become a leading global player [3][4] Group 3: Raw Material Procurement and Cost Advantages - The company has significant advantages in raw material procurement due to its large-scale production capacity, enhancing negotiation power with suppliers [3] - The company’s adipic acid production benefits from advanced processes that improve material efficiency and reduce costs [3] Group 4: Financial Strategy and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a cash-rich position and is committed to a balanced approach to investments and dividends, considering both short-term and long-term shareholder interests [3][4] - A structured plan for shareholder returns is being developed, focusing on sustainable and stable returns [3] Group 5: Market Demand and Product Structure - The demand for polyurethane raw materials remains stable, with applications in various industries such as footwear and furniture [3] - Approximately 25% of the company's spandex products are differentiated products, catering to various market segments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company Taihe New Materials (002254) reported that its Yantai spandex facility is operating near the breakeven point, while the Ningdong spandex facility is still in a state of loss [1] Company Summary - The Yantai spandex facility is currently at the breakeven point, indicating a potential stabilization in operations [1] - The Ningdong spandex facility continues to incur losses, suggesting ongoing challenges in that segment [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Traditional Industries in China**: The cyclical nature of traditional industries is weakening, with a shift in fixed asset investment towards asset management. This change is driven by a decline in risk-free returns, which is fostering the development of capital markets [1][5][6]. - **Economic Policy Shift**: The 20th Central Committee emphasized economic construction, marking a transition to a more proactive development strategy, which is beneficial for technology and consumer sectors [1][7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Chinese market is expected to stabilize above 4,000 points by 2025, with no second bottom anticipated. Adjustments in the market are seen as buying opportunities [1][3][10]. Key Sectors and Companies - **Metals Sector**: Industrial metals are expected to benefit from improved risk appetite due to US-China trade negotiations. The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may lead to increased liquidity, positively impacting both precious and industrial metal prices [1][12]. - **Chemical Industry**: Supply-side pressures are expected to ease, with leading companies in coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng), spandex (e.g., Huafeng Chemical), and refrigerants showing growth potential [1][16][19]. - **Logistics Sector**: The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with major companies like Shentong and YTO showing strong growth. The focus is on companies with robust performance and reasonable valuations [4][21][22]. - **Coal Market**: The coal market is recovering due to extreme weather and early heating season demands, with prices expected to exceed 800 RMB/ton by 2026 [4][27][28]. - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is in a bottom reversal phase, with demand and supply factors supporting price stability. Leading companies like Baosteel and Hualing are recommended for investment [4][29][30]. Investment Opportunities - **Emerging Technologies**: New technologies are highlighted as a primary investment focus, with cyclical finance seen as a dark horse. The investment landscape is expected to diversify but remain structured [1][11][10]. - **New Materials**: Investment opportunities in new materials include lubricating oil additives and high-frequency resins, with companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Lianlong showing promise [1][20]. - **Public Utilities**: The public utility sector is projected to experience significant valuation recovery, particularly in power generation, with expectations of doubling PE ratios [40][41]. Additional Insights - **US-China Trade Relations**: China's systematic and mature response to trade challenges has increased market confidence and risk appetite, suggesting that recent price declines present buying opportunities rather than sell signals [8][9]. - **Real Estate Sector**: The relationship between high-quality real estate development and economic contribution is emphasized, with a need for stable investment and reasonable price expectations to achieve high-quality growth [35]. - **Future Trends**: The focus on innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and structural upgrades in the petrochemical industry is expected to drive growth in the coming years [26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries in China.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on phosphate mining and self-controlled new materials [5][6]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a 4.62% increase in the second week of October, outperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 2.82 percentage points [2][12]. - Key stocks that led the gains include Chengxing Co. (+26.15%), Hebang Bio (+17.8%), and Shida Shenghua (+16.28%) [2][12]. - The report highlights the significant price increases in hydrogen peroxide (+5.53%) and isopropanol (+4.5%) among other chemicals [4][18]. - It recommends paying attention to companies with phosphate resources and those involved in the production of critical materials like photoresists [5]. Industry Performance - In the second week of October, 29 out of 32 sub-industries in the chemical sector saw price increases, with phosphate chemicals and phosphates leading at +8.71% [3][15]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 26.40 times, significantly above the average PE of 17.05 since 2015 [2][12]. Price and Spread Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include liquid chlorine (+58.91%) and hydrogen peroxide (+5.53%) [4][18]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by +522.86% [39][41]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory increases were observed in methanol (+21.97%) and ethylene glycol (+19.55%) [5][64].

Core Viewpoint - The spandex industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a potential recovery expected around 2026-27, despite short-term disruptions due to an uncontrollable incident at a spandex factory in Zhejiang [1][2]. Industry Overview - The spandex industry is in a new phase of rapid capacity expansion, with production capacity increasing from 892,000 tons in 2020 to an estimated 1,402,000 tons by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 12.0%. The capacity growth rate for 2023 is particularly high at 19.2% [2]. - Despite the increasing usage of spandex in synthetic fibers, demand growth is lagging behind supply growth, leading to a prolonged period of low industry profitability [2]. Profitability Outlook - As of September 2025, spandex prices are at a historical low of 23,000 yuan per ton, with a price spread of 10,500 yuan per ton. Leading companies are experiencing a net profit of approximately 1,200 yuan per ton, indicating that the industry is likely in a state of cash flow loss [3]. - The current operational conditions are unsustainable, and the industry may seek a new balance through adjustments in operating rates. There is significant potential for profitability recovery in the medium to long term [3]. Investment Focus - Companies to watch in the spandex sector include Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) and Taihe New Materials (002254.SZ), which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the industry [1].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant pullback on October 13, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 3.19% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Tongkun Co., Ltd., fell over 7%, while several others like Xin Fengming and Huafeng Chemical dropped more than 6%, negatively impacting the overall sector performance [1][2] - The chemical ETF has seen a capital inflow of over 80 million yuan in the last three trading days, indicating renewed interest from investors [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low in terms of profitability and valuation, with a profit margin of 4.14% for the chemical raw materials and products sector as of August 2025 [3] - The price-to-book ratio for the chemical ETF (516020) is at 2.4 times, which is in the 41.57 percentile of the last decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector has seen a decline for three consecutive quarters, confirming a supply turning point and indicating a potential improvement in the industry landscape [4] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors with significant profit elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament, which are expected to benefit from supply-side improvements [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [4] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [4]