Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices declined. WTI January contract closed down $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of 2.73%. Brent February contract closed down $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%. SC2601 closed at 421.8 yuan per barrel, down 9.1 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.11%. With the intensification of market macro - risks, oil prices will continue to seek a bottom [1]. - The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage shipments from the Western market to Singapore in December are expected to decrease, the Asian fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in December and January. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively firm due to concerns about future raw material shortages. The downstream demand shows obvious north - south differentiation. In the short term, asphalt may remain stable under weak oil prices, but there is also a possibility of price decline if oil prices continue to fall [2]. - In the polyester market, with the decline of processing fees and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, prices will be further dragged down. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to new production capacity and some loss - making devices [2][4]. - For rubber, the weather in overseas production areas has improved, raw material prices have rebounded, but demand support is limited. Rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - In the methanol market, Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January, but MTO device loads are also decreasing. Methanol prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [5]. - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term futures decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply oscillations and weakening domestic demand. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Market expectations were different from the actual data. Macro data and geopolitical factors were also mentioned. Oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost refinery demand in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract declined. Concerns about raw material shortages made the market relatively firm. Downstream demand has north - south differences. Short - term prices may remain stable but could fall if oil prices drop further [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 declined, EG2605 rose. Processing fees are low, terminal demand is seasonally weak, and new ethylene glycol production capacity is increasing supply pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. Overseas weather improvement and raw material price rebound, but limited demand support, leading to expected wide - range oscillations [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, prices in different regions were reported. Supply is high - level oscillating, and demand is weakening. Iranian device shutdowns and MTO device load changes affect the market, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, prices and profit margins were given. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, market prices in different regions increased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and basis changes of various energy - chemical products on December 16th and 15th were presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine on security guarantees for Ukraine made progress, but there are still differences on territorial issues [9]. - API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, which was different from market expectations [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price charts of main contracts of various products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [43][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Included spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][72] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Included production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals. With rich experience and many awards, she provides services for many companies and has media influence [74]. - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many awards and has in - depth industry research [75]. - **邸艺琳**: A natural rubber and polyester analyst. She has won awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **彭海波**: An analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in trade and financial knowledge [77].

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing down $1.55 at $55.27 per barrel, a drop of 2.73% [2][13] - Brent February contract closed down $1.64 at $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][13] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2][13] - The market expected a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels in crude oil inventory [2][13] - Geopolitical factors have not caused a significant supply shortage, and oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom amid increasing macro risks [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.5% to 2368 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.42% to 2909 yuan/ton [3][14] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore [3][14] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high-sulfur fuel oil cracking profits have declined, potentially boosting demand from Asian refineries [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.36% to 2894 yuan/ton [4][15] - Tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about future raw material shortages, keeping the market relatively firm [4][15] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows significant regional differences, with the North focusing on storage and the South on actual consumption [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15170 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12385 yuan/ton [5][16] - Weather improvements in overseas production areas have led to lower raw material inventories compared to previous years [5][16] - Limited demand support is expected, leading to wide fluctuations in rubber futures prices [5][16] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4668 yuan/ton, down 0.6%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 3.75% [6][17] - PX futures closed at 6744 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with spot prices at $827/ton [6][17] - Domestic supply pressures are expected to increase as new ethylene glycol plants come online, while some existing plants are facing losses [6][17] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2103 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $244-$248/ton [7][18] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in downstream MTO plants [7][18] - Overall, methanol prices are anticipated to remain under pressure [7][18] Polyolefins - Main PP prices in East China ranged from 6120-6350 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][19] - PE prices are reported at 7839 yuan/ton for HDPE and 8491 yuan/ton for LDPE [8][19] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with limited downside for futures prices [8][19] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for different grades ranging from 4350-4600 yuan/ton [9][20] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to some plants resuming operations, while demand is anticipated to slow down due to a decrease in real estate construction [9][20] - Overall, PVC prices are expected to trend towards a bottom [9][20] Urea - Urea futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 1630 yuan/ton [10][22] - The market is experiencing weak demand, with many regions showing a cautious purchasing sentiment [10][22] - Short-term market support is lacking, and there may be further price declines to reduce inventory [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm trend, with the January contract closing at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [11][23] - Supply is slightly decreasing, while demand is expected to remain weak due to cautious sentiment in downstream industries [11][23] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong but limited upward trend [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 946 yuan/ton [12][24] - The market is stable, with no significant changes in production lines, and demand remains cautious [12][24] - Short-term price trends are expected to continue fluctuating at the bottom [12][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62, a decrease of 1.08% [2][12] - Brent February contract closed at $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56, a decrease of 0.92% [2][12] - China's industrial crude oil production in November was 17.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with an average daily production of 588,000 tons [2][12] - Kazakhstan has increased oil supplies to Kyrgyzstan and plans to resume shipments to Uzbekistan in December, which may exert pressure on oil prices [2][12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.11% to 2417 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.08% to 3005 yuan/ton [3][13] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with significant inventory accumulation in November [3][13] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high sulfur fuel oil margins have decreased, potentially increasing demand from refineries [3][13] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.54% to 2963 yuan/ton, supported by concerns over raw material shortages due to geopolitical tensions [4][14] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows regional disparities, with the northern market focused on storage and the southern market on actual consumption [4][14] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber RU2605 fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 30 yuan/ton to 12360 yuan/ton [5][15] - U.S. tire imports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases from Thailand [5][15] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons, indicating a rise in supply [5][15] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4696 yuan/ton, up 1.78%, while EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [6][16] - PX futures closed at 6784 yuan/ton, with a narrowing basis indicating stable demand [6][16] - Ethylene glycol prices remain low, with some facilities operating at a loss, which may alleviate domestic supply pressure [6][16] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China range from 6170 to 6400 yuan/ton, with production margins remaining negative [7][17] - Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is weakening, leading to increased inventory pressure [7][17] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4310 to 4420 yuan/ton [8][18] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, impacting demand for pipes and profiles [8][18] Urea - Urea futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1629 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [9][19] - Supply levels are decreasing, with daily production at 194,600 tons, while demand remains weak [9][19] Glass - Glass futures prices showed slight increases, with the main contract closing at 950 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [10][20] - The glass market remains cautious, with production levels stable but demand showing signs of weakness [10][20]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing multi - dimensional challenges. Geopolitical factors such as the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, along with the prominent contradiction of supply surplus during the off - season of demand, lead to the repeated and volatile operation of oil prices. All varieties in the energy and chemical sector are expected to show an oscillating trend [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to decline. The WTI January contract closed down $0.86 at $57.60 per barrel, a 1.47% drop; the Brent February contract closed down $0.93 at $61.28 per barrel, a 1.49% drop; SC2601 closed at 435.6 yuan per barrel, down 5.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.27% decline. OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and both OPEC and IEA made adjustments to their supply and demand forecasts for next year. The oil market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2602 fell 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure, and it is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals will continue until January next year. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain low and oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate decreased. The winter storage policy of refineries is gradually being implemented, and it is predicted that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.04% to 4664 yuan per ton; EG2601 fell 2.25% to 3599 yuan per ton. PX is expected to face pressure at the end of the year. TA prices are expected to decline with cost pressure, and ethylene glycol prices are under pressure with long - term inventory accumulation risks [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton; the NR main contract remained unchanged at 12270 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 10710 yuan per ton. The improvement of overseas production area weather, the impact of border conflicts on rubber tapping, and limited demand support led to a slight rebound in rubber futures prices [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the time may be postponed. Methanol prices have an upper limit, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and downstream demand will weaken. However, due to the low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the repair of the basis [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on December 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the OPEC+ alliance slightly increased production in November, and maintained the forecast of relatively strong demand growth for next year. The production in November was 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The average demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 42.6 million barrels per day, and 43 million barrels per day for the whole year [12]. - The IEA lowered its forecast of the global oil supply surplus for next year for the first time since May. The global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 4.09 million barrels per day. The expected increase in global oil supply next year is 2.4 million barrels per day, and the expected increase in demand is 860,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. The EIA also raised the forecast of oil demand growth in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc [15][16]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external markets, fuel oil's high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc [63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The production profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [76][77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63, a decrease of 1.07% [2] - Brent February contract closed at $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55, a decrease of 0.88% [2] - EIA's report indicates that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a record high, with 2025 production revised up by 20,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 380,000 barrels per day [2][17] - The expectation of oversupply in the global market is increasing, with U.S. oil production for December averaging 13.85 million barrels per day, slightly down from November's 13.86 million barrels per day [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.34% to 2418 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 1.7% to 3014 yuan per ton [18] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to increased supply and weak downstream demand [18] - The market is expected to remain under pressure until January due to supply-driven fundamentals [18] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.41% to 2943 yuan per ton [18] - Winter storage prices are expected to drop to near five-year lows, with forecasts suggesting prices between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [18] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber fell by 80 yuan per ton to 14985 yuan per ton, while NR rose by 15 yuan per ton to 12080 yuan per ton [20] - The market is under pressure due to improved weather in overseas production areas and insufficient demand support [20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4644 yuan per ton, down 1.07%, while PX futures closed at 6780 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [21] - The overall production and sales in Jiangsu are weak, with average sales estimated at slightly above 40% [21] - Domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to tighten, but long-term inventory pressure remains [21] Methanol - Methanol prices are stable, with Taicang spot prices at 2075 yuan per ton [22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to slow unloading pace and limited price increases in downstream polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for various production methods [23] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure on downstream [23] PVC - PVC prices in East China have decreased, with the market facing high supply and slowing domestic demand [24] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to trend towards the bottom [24] Urea - Urea prices continue to weaken, with mainstream prices in Shandong and Henan at 1690 yuan per ton and 1680 yuan per ton, respectively [25][26] - The market is characterized by high supply levels and fluctuating demand, with production rates showing regional disparities [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remain stable, with the market sentiment pressured by new capacity additions [27] - Demand support is limited, and the market is expected to continue facing downward pressure [27] Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with the average price at 1097 yuan per ton [28] - The market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and declining demand [28]