1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX and PTA both showed weak consolidation this week. For PX, after the impact of the emergency was digested, the support from the cost side weakened, and with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the market sentiment was bearish. For PTA, after the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not sustain, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorated, with processing fees and spot basis dropping [9]. - **Market Forecast**: Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. PX supply will remain relatively stable with minor changes, and PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton. PTA supply will face pressure from new capacity, and it will likely trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views 3.1.1 Weekly Summary - **PX**: After the shock of the emergency, the cost support from crude oil weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans this month and social inventories are at a historical low, with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the overall market sentiment is bearish [9]. - **PTA**: After the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not continue to drive the market. Polyester production cuts have led to a decline in operating rates, and new capacity on the supply side has put pressure on the supply - demand balance. Processing fees have fallen below 200 yuan/ton, and the spot basis has dropped rapidly [9]. 3.1.2 Market Forecast - **Crude Oil**: With obvious bottom support and weakening upper - end demand and continuous trade issues, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate [10]. - **PX**: Chinese PX supply is relatively stable, with some minor adjustments in maintenance schedules. Asian PX supply will also remain generally stable. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **PTA**: Newly commissioned capacity in East China will bring pressure to the supply side. PTA is expected to trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyester**: Production cuts have been fully implemented, and there are no new cuts in the short term. The operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [10]. - **Weaving**: In the off - season, there is a lack of new orders, and the market shows no improvement [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.2 Price Situation 3.2.1 PX - **Futures**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with the closing price of the main contract on July 11 at 6,694 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.33%) from July 4, and the settlement price at 6,720 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) [13][15]. - **Spot**: After a narrow - range increase, prices turned down. From July 7 - 11, the average basis of the main contract was 56 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price was 6,772 yuan/ton, down 128.2 yuan/ton (- 1.86%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.2.2 PTA - **Futures**: With weakening demand, prices fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract on July 11 was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from July 4, and the settlement price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.59%) [20][22]. - **Spot**: Trading was mainly between traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 2 - 3 million tons. From July 6 - 12, the average basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, the average CIF price in the Chinese market was 607 US dollars/ton, down 23.8 US dollars/ton (- 3.92%) from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,761.6 yuan/ton, down 170.4 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) [23][25]. 3.3 Device Operation Conditions 3.3.1 PX Devices - **Domestic Changes**: Many domestic PX devices have different operating loads, such as Ningbo Daxie operating at 60% capacity, and some devices in Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical operating at 85 - 90% capacity [30]. - **Asian Other Regions**: Some devices in Asian other regions have restarted or adjusted their operating rates, such as Pertamina in Indonesia restarting from a shutdown and some Japanese and Korean devices having maintenance or unexpected shutdowns [32][33]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate remained relatively stable, with 83.00% from July 1 - 7 and 83.13% from July 8 - 14 [34]. 3.3.2 PTA Devices - **Device Changes**: Some PTA devices such as Ningbo Taihua and Hainan Yisheng are under maintenance, and a new 3.2 - million - ton device in East China plans to put 1.6 - million - ton capacity into operation recently and another 1.6 - million - ton capacity in August [37]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate increased by 1.22% due to the resumption of some devices [38]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Investors are concerned about the results of the tariff negotiations between the US and key trading partners. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 14 was 66.98 US dollars/barrel, down 0.95 US dollars/barrel from July 7, and Brent crude oil's was 69.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.37 US dollars/barrel. The weekly average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 0.77 US dollars/barrel and 1.13 US dollars/barrel respectively compared to last week [43][45][47]. - **Naphtha**: Demand in Asia, especially in China, is strong, with both supply and demand sides being robust. The average weekly price of CFR Japan naphtha is 591.40 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit is 27.23 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX**: After the impact of oil prices weakened, PX prices remained stagnant. The average weekly price of CFR China Main Port was 846.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.28% from the previous week, and the average weekly price of FOB South Korea was 822.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.27% [55]. 3.4.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: Although there were unexpected situations with overseas devices, the impact on processing fees was limited. The weekly average of PXN was 253.79 yuan/ton, down 7.51% from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 96.50 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Margin**: Profits have been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. The average spot processing fee from July 8 - 14 was 177.66 yuan/ton, compared with 298.31 yuan/ton last week [59][61]. - **Inventory**: PTA has entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of July 11, the social inventory was 4.397 million tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.95%. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.09 days, and polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.05 days [66][68]. 3.4.3 Demand - **Polyester Product Prices**: The prices of polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have declined. The average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,969.00 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous reporting period [74]. - **Market Demand**: The weakness of the market demand side is becoming more prominent. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from July 8 - 14 was estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventory has increased, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate has continued to decline [75][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain fluctuated and declined following costs. The EG futures and spot prices decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG production is expected to increase as the maintenance period has passed, and the load will gradually return to a high level in July. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. On the demand side, it is expected to be weak due to high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness during the off - season. The short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure will increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the EG East China spot price and basis, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis at 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is currently in a situation where demand is weak during the off - season, and downstream negative feedback is continuously transmitted to the upstream market, suppressing the prices of polyester products [6]. - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, PX supply is still tight in the short term and is expected to oscillate with the cost side; PTA supply is expected to increase, and its processing fee is significantly compressed; MEG has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September; short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported; and bottle - chip processing fees are also relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies | Product | Logic Analysis | Trading Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | PX&PTA | PX supply is still tight, with the Vietnamese NSRP 700,000 - ton PX device gradually resuming and the Thai THAI OIL 530,000 - ton PX device shut down for maintenance. PTA supply is expected to increase with device restarts and new installations. Downstream polyester and terminal operations are declining. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA; Option: Wait and see [4] | | MEG | Domestic and foreign devices are restarting, and the port inventory is currently low but has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September. The downstream load is decreasing, but there is short - term market support due to the rebound in coal prices. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PF | Short - fiber processing differentials are continuously widening, production and sales are average, and there are still production reduction plans in July. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PR | Bottle - chip processing fees are strengthening, and production reduction measures are gradually being implemented. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Polyester Load and Terminal Operations**: As of Friday, the polyester load was 88.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing and weaving operations decreased by 7% and 4% respectively, and the dyeing operation remained at 67%. The fabric orders were weak, and terminal production reduction was accelerating [6]. - **Product - Specific Situations**: - **PX**: Domestic PX load remained basically stable, with a slight increase to 81.3% as of Friday. Overseas load decreased slightly. Long - process device profits narrowed, and short - process device profits fluctuated slightly [16]. - **PTA**: Social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and the September - January spread weakened significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and processing differentials have weakened to the lowest point of the year [18][20]. - **MEG**: Port inventory rebounded, supply increased, the basis weakened, and the September - January spread strengthened. Domestic and foreign device loads increased, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September [22][25]. - **Polyester Products**: Long - filament inventory accumulated, short - fiber profits expanded but downstream operations declined, and bottle - chip processing fees strengthened with production reduction measures being implemented [8][10][12]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and Brent crude oil, etc. [34]. - **Spread and Profit**: It includes various spreads such as PX - Brent, PX - naphtha, and PX - MX, as well as theoretical profits [36][38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic and overseas PX loads and the relationship between PX and PTA loads are shown [63][64]. - **PTA**: - **Profit**: It includes profits such as PTA's profit from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [74][75]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA and polyester loads are presented [77]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts are included [79]. - **MEG**: - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot, coal, methanol, and ethylene [81]. - **Spread**: It includes various spreads such as domestic and foreign spreads, regional spreads, and EO - 1.4EG spread [83]. - **Profit**: It includes profits from oil - based, MTO, ethylene monomer, and coal - based production of ethylene glycol [94][96]. - **Polyester**: - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of long - filaments, short - fiber profit, polyester weighted profit, bottle - chip processing profit, and slice profit [99]. - **Supply**: It shows the loads of polyester, bottle - chips, long - filaments, and short - fibers, as well as inventory days [101][102]. - **Demand**: It includes the loads and inventories of pure - polyester yarn, polyester - cotton yarn, and fabric, as well as export data and domestic consumption data [105][108][109].

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/11 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 519.7 | 522.5 | 2. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:华东市场PTA价格4746元/吨,跌2元/吨。聚酯工 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 941.3 | 944.9 | 3. 65 | 厂官宣继续减产,PTA需求利空继续发酵,日内PTA基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2492 | 1. 2489 | -0. 0004 | 差继续走弱,加之国际油价对PTA成本提振效果一般, 日内PTA现货微幅下跌。 | | | CFR中国PX | 850 | 852 | 2 | | | PX | | | | | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 264 | 254 | - ...

Market Overview - The PTA spot market showed improved trading sentiment compared to the previous day, with increased bids from polyester factories and a continued weak basis, leading to an expanded decline in the afternoon [1] - Main suppliers reported sales, with transactions this week and next week in the range of 4780 to 4820 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot basis is at 09+91 [1] - As of July 8, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had 45,812 PTA futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 9,384 from the previous trading day [1] Inventory and Supply Chain - This week, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from last week and 0.29 days from the same period last year [1] - Polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.1 days, down 0.35 days from last week and 1.08 days from the same period last year [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that while the PTA basis continues to weaken, there has been a partial recovery in transactions, with liquidity issues easing significantly [2] - The port inventory has increased, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts and increased factory stocking, the upward impact of spot prices on the futures market has become limited [2] - Dadi Futures indicated that the polyester industry chain remains stable upstream, while expectations of declining downstream loads suggest profits will further shift downstream [2] - The oil price remains strong, and with downstream production cuts, the strategy of shorting PX/PTA based on Brent price differentials continues, although the potential for significant movement is limited [2] - As the peak season approaches in late August, there may be opportunities for PTA large manufacturers to adjust loads to expand profits, with current PTA processing fees being neutral [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2024- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 01 01 01 05 09 05 09 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一国贸易货 险,入市需谨慎。 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 2025/7/8 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/4 | 2025/7/7 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4835 | 4810 | (25.00) | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4365 | 4345 | (20. 00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌32至6518。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4710 | 0.00 | 短纤生产企业价格商谈为主,贸易商价格下跌, | | MEG收盘价 | 4277 | 4279 | 2. 00 | 下游按需采买,市场成交温吞。1.56dtex*38mm | | | | | | 半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6550- | | 1.4D直纺 ...

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | PX社会库存目前偏低，供应端偏紧，本周中长流程制利润走缩，亚洲 PX 开工率回落，三季度海外日本Eneos条 | | | | 35万6月下意外停车，预计一个月，韩国Hanwha，泰国石油也有检修计划， 下游PTA三房巷320万吨装置预计8月 | | | | 投产，新凤鸣300万吨装置投产在10月，直接拉动PX需求，OPEC在8月考虑增产55万桶/日，PX预计短期跟随成 | 单边：短期震荡整理 | | PX&P | 本端。 | 套利：观望 | | TA | 近期PTA基差大幅下滑，周内山东威联化学250万吨装置检修，逸盛新材料360万吨装置负荷恢复，逸盛海南200万 | 期权：观望 | | | 吨PTA装置因故降负至5成附近，恒力2 ...

免责声 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/3 | | 陈胜 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | | 2025/7/1 | 2025/7/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | -1.20 | INE原油(元/桶) SC PTA-SC(元/吨) | 499. 4 1170.8 | 498. 2 1173.5 | 2.72 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油价格窄幅震荡,PTA行情 小跌。现货基差均值较上一交易日下跌,早盘PTA现货 | | | | | | | 递盘基差较低,市场买气有所回升,午后现货基差较 | | 1. 3226 | PTA/SC(比价) | | 1. 3241 | 0. 0015 | 早盘微幅走强。 | | CFR中国PX | | 861 | 854 | -7 | | | PX-石脑油价差 | PX | 288 | 283 | -5 | | | PTA主力期价(元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. The fundamentals of PTA are weakening, but PX fundamentals remain tight, and the floating price of the spot is strongly maintained. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the expiration of the tariff extension deadline in July, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - In the short term, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver. The upside potential of gasoline cracking spreads is limited, and the demand for blending oil this year is not worth much expectation. PX short - flow plants have restarted external procurement of MX due to profit recovery [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and it is expected to decline to 89% - 90% in July. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3] - The fundamentals of PF are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, and the demand is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The processing fee of PR is expected to recover with the implementation of production cuts, but the current profit is still low [4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral ratings of PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. There are no cross - variety strategies. For cross - period strategies, after the sentiment weakens, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long in the positive spread of PX/PTA monthly spreads at low prices [5] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The charts show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts present PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts display the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The charts show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The charts show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][73][76] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next next month - base month) [95][97][104]