1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PR futures are expected to move in a range-bound manner this week, with suggestions of waiting and watching for arbitrage and double - selling options [6]. - The polyester industry shows mixed performance, with开工 rising slightly and processing fees recovering at a low level, but most products are still in a loss - making state except for short - fiber and filament [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: The PX futures price fluctuates, the spot floating price weakens, and the basis and monthly spread compress. Supply is on the rise, and profits of long - and short - process plants are good. For trading, the unilateral strategy is range - bound, arbitrage is on hold, and double - selling options are recommended [6]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand both increase, social inventory rises, the monthly spread weakens, and the basis strengthens slightly. In the short term, processing fees are undervalued, and there are many maintenance devices. In the medium term, supply will increase. The trading strategies are the same as those for PX [6]. - **MEG**: Supply and demand increase, port inventory rises, the monthly spread weakens, and the basis strengthens. The domestic maintenance devices are few, and the开工 rate is rising. The trading strategies are range - bound for the unilateral position, waiting and watching for arbitrage, and double - selling options [6]. - **PF**: Supply and demand increase, inventory accumulates slightly, and processing fees fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are the same as above [6]. - **PR**: Bottle - chip factories continue to reduce production. The开工 rate is stable, and processing fees fluctuate around 420 yuan/ton. The trading strategies are also the same [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The开工 rate of polyester rises slightly, factory inventory increases, and processing fees recover at a low level. Short - fiber and filament are slightly profitable, while other products are still in the red [9]. - The terminal开工 rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rises, and the sales atmosphere improves [11]. - The filament开工 rate reaches a high level, the sales volume surges at the beginning of the week, and inventory pressure eases [15]. - Bottle - chip factories continue to cut production, the开工 rate is stable for three consecutive weeks, and processing fees fluctuate around 420 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply and demand of short - fiber increase, and inventory accumulates slightly [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The spot floating price of PX weakens, and the basis and monthly spread compress [23]. - Profits are good, and the开工 rate increases. Some maintenance devices have restarted, and supply is on the rise [25]. 3.2.3 PTA - The basis of PTA strengthens, and the monthly spread weakens. Social inventory continues to rise [33]. - Supply and demand both increase, and processing fees recover slightly. In the short term, processing fees are undervalued, and in the medium term, supply will increase [35]. 3.2.4 Ethylene Glycol - Port shipments of ethylene glycol improve, the basis strengthens, and the monthly spread weakens. Port inventory rises, but the dominant inventory is still at a low level [40]. - Supply and demand increase, and the contradiction is not significant. The domestic maintenance devices are few, and the开工 rate is rising [42]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and other related products [51]. - **Variance and Profit**: It includes various variances and profit indicators such as PX - MX, PX theoretical profit, etc. [54][55]. - **Disproportionation and Oil - blending Spread and Profit**: It involves data on disproportionation and oil - blending spreads and profits [63]. - **Regional Spread and Profit**: It presents regional spreads and profits between the US and South Korea for related products [70]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load and开工 rate of PX and PTA in China [74]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Profit**: It includes PTA's profits related to crude oil, naphtha, and PX [87]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load indexes of PTA and polyester [91]. - **Inventory**: It includes PTA social inventory, factory raw material inventory, and warehouse receipts [93]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol and related raw materials [95]. - **Spread**: It includes various spreads such as internal - external spreads, regional spreads, etc. [97]. - **Profit**: It includes profits from different production methods of ethylene glycol [108]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It includes the profits of long - fiber, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other polyester products [111]. - **Supply**: It shows the load and inventory of polyester products [113]. - **Demand**: It includes data on the load, inventory, and sales of downstream products such as pure - polyester yarn and cotton - polyester blended yarn [117].

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant production losses due to new capacity coming online, while profits are concentrated in the upstream PX segment, with no planned maintenance for PTA facilities in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: PTA Industry Analysis - As of August 14, the average processing fee for PTA in August is 195 yuan/ton, down 19% from July, marking a 22-month low [1]. - The theoretical production loss for PTA companies is estimated at 305 yuan/ton, based on a processing cost line of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - The main reason for PTA's production losses is the new capacity coming online and the continued supply-demand mismatch in PX, which remains relatively strong [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester industry chain's profits are currently concentrated in the upstream PX and downstream polyester filament POY segments [3]. - The theoretical profit for PX is 381 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from July, while polyester filament POY has turned profitable with a theoretical profit of 29 yuan/ton [3]. - Despite the severe losses faced by PTA, the supply pressure is expected to increase with the upcoming new PTA capacities, which may not be offset by any planned maintenance [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PX supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue, with new PTA capacities potentially increasing PX demand by 34.7 thousand tons/month if they stabilize by October [4]. - Polyester inventory levels are relatively low, with POY at 17 days, FDY at 25 days, short fibers at 12 days, and polyester chips at 7.5 days as of August 14 [4]. - The anticipated demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may support profit recovery for polyester products, while PTA continues to face supply pressure from new capacities [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report released on August 17, 2025, by Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on PX, PTA, and MEG [1][2] Group 2: PX Analysis Core View - PX supply increases while demand decreases, leading to a decline in processing fees. However, the gradual improvement in terminal demand may limit the downside space for the single - side price [3] Supply - China's PX operating rate is 84.3% (+2.3%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 74% (+0.4%). Domestic supply is abundant with some plants restarting or increasing loads. Overseas, there are both restarts and maintenance, with little impact on production [3][51] Demand - This week, the PTA operating rate is 76.0% (-0.2%), with some plants shutting down and others restarting [3][4] Valuation - The PX - naphtha spread is 253 US dollars/ton (-8), and the PX - MX spread is 117 US dollars/ton (-4) [3] Strategy - For single - side trading, reduce short positions; for inter - period trading, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads; for inter - variety trading, go long on PX and short on PTA, long on PX and short on EB, long on naphtha and short on PX in the 01 contract [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Core View - Reduce short positions on dips and hold the 9 - 1 reverse spread [4] Supply - The PTA operating rate is 76.0% (-0.2%), with some plants shutting down and others restarting [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is revised up to 89.4% (+0.6%). The recovery of the bottle - chip factory's operating rate is postponed to September. The downstream operating rate of polyester is slowly rising, and the speed of recovery will accelerate in September [4] Valuation - The PTA spot processing fee is 207 yuan/ton (+20), the 01 contract processing fee is 344 yuan/ton (+13) with a downward trend, and the 09 contract processing fee is 252 yuan/ton (-26). The basis is maintained at - 15 yuan/ton [4] Strategy - For single - side trading, reduce and exit short positions; for inter - period trading, hold the 9 - 1 month - spread reverse spread; for inter - variety trading, hold long PX and short PTA, long MEG and short PTA in the 01 contract [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Core View - The single - side trend is weakly oscillating, and hold the mid - term long MEG and short PTA position [5] Supply - There were short - term shutdowns and restarts of some plants. The coal - based plant operating rate increased to 80% despite a decline in profits [5] Demand - The demand outlook is not optimistic, with the improvement of the operating rate waiting for the improvement of terminal manufacturing orders. Market attention is on the final decision of China - US tariffs on August 12 and the impact of the social security new policy on terminal production costs [5] Valuation - Considering the background, the far - end contract has some upward potential. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [5] Strategy - For single - side trading, conduct range trading and short on rallies; for inter - period trading, conduct range trading for the 9 - 1 month - spread between - 50 and 0, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads; for inter - variety trading, hold long L and short MEG, long MEG and short PTA [5] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: 300 million tons of Yulong Petrochemical are planned to be put into production at the end of the year [7] - PTA: 600 million tons are planned to be put into production throughout the year, with projects from Honggang Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, etc. [7] - MEG: 100 million tons are planned to be put into production, including projects from Sichuan Zhengda Kai, Yulong Petrochemical, etc. [7] - Polyester: 305 million tons are planned to be put into production, with many projects from different companies [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the weekly performance of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, polyester, and terminal products. It points out that the market is in a state of waiting for the peak season. Although there are some improvements in the terminal, the overall upstream valuation is still suppressed by the weak performance of the terminal and polyester. It also suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last week, the price fluctuated. The supply side saw an increase in load, with some domestic and overseas device changes. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load, but the overall load in August decreased. The inventory continued to decline in July - August. The PXN fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11]. - **PTA**: The price also fluctuated last week. The supply side had an increase in load, but the overall load in August decreased due to more maintenance. The new device put into production increased the supply pressure. The demand side saw an increase in polyester load, and the terminal showed some improvement. The inventory continued to accumulate. The processing fee rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the peak season [12]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated last week. The supply side had a decrease in load, mainly due to the decline in ethylene - based load. The subsequent load is expected to increase. The demand side is similar to PTA. The inventory in ports and downstream factories increased. The valuation is relatively high, and there is a downward pressure on the short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis rebounded, and the spread was weak. The trading volume was small, and the open interest was stable [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis was continuously weak, and the spread fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest were at a relatively high level [42]. - **MEG**: The trading volume and open interest were at a low level [60]. 3.3 p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The device load increased. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes in operation status. The new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [72][74]. - **Import**: The import volume in June was stable [77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in June [85]. - **Cost - profit**: The PXN fluctuated, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending was weak, and the US - South Korea aromatics spread was also weak [89][96][105]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: The new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 has been or will be put into production. The load in June decreased, and the export volume was low [129][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased from a low level [137]. - **Profit - valuation**: The processing fee was repaired [140]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The Zhengdakai Phase I was put into production. The ethylene device had an accident, and the load of the syngas - based device was at a historical high. The new capacity of Ningxia Kunpeng Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and BASF will be put into production in the future [144][148]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased this week [158]. - **Cost**: The coal price decreased, and the ethylene price increased slightly [168]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated. The operating rate increased, and the export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of long - filament was neutral, the inventory of staple fiber increased, and the absolute inventory of bottle chips was high. The profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [186][189][192][198][201][212]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate increased. The orders of textile enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, and the raw material inventory increased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing decreased, and the export was weak [214][222][226].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is waiting for the peace - talk information between the US and a European country. International oil prices are weak, and PTA has insufficient cost support. With a weak supply - demand structure, the PTA market declined slightly today. The PTA supply has shrunk, and port inventories have decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, but alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. PTA basis has weakened, and market replenishment willingness has declined [2] - The coal price has rebounded, driving up the ethylene glycol price. However, the macro - sentiment has weakened slightly, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may significantly affect the market. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and terminal loads have significantly declined, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 501.0 yuan/barrel on August 7th to 489.8 yuan/barrel on August 8th, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased from 1047.2 yuan/ton to 1124.6 yuan/ton, a rise of 77.39 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2876 to 1.3159, an increase of 0.0283. The PTA main - contract futures price dropped from 4688 yuan/ton to 4684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price dropped from 4690 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 150.6 yuan/ton to 191.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 41.2 yuan/ton. The futures - based processing fee increased from 163.6 yuan/ton to 205.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 42.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from (20) to (18), an increase of 2.0. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity remained unchanged at 33459 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 840 to 831, a decrease of 9. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 259 to 261, an increase of 2 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 4396 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (90.51) yuan/ton to (89.70) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4486 to 4465, a decrease of 21.0. The MEG main - contract basis decreased from 76 to 73, a decrease of 3.0 [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 78.11%. PTA operating rate dropped from 76.09% to 74.50%, a decrease of 1.59%. MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.15%. Polyester load remained unchanged at 87.09% [2] 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price dropped from 6665 to 6660, a decrease of 5.0. POY cash flow increased from (98) to (79), an increase of 19.0. FDY150D/96F price dropped from 6965 to 6960, a decrease of 5.0. FDY cash flow increased from (298) to (279), an increase of 19.0. DTY150D/48F price dropped from 7910 to 7890, a decrease of 20.0. DTY cash flow increased from (23) to (49), an increase of 4.0. Polyester filament production and sales increased from 38% to 40%, an increase of 2% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 137 to 161, an increase of 24.0. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 46% to 57%, an increase of 11% [2] - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5805 to 5795, a decrease of 10.0. Chip cash flow increased from (58) to (44), an increase of 14.0. Chip production and sales decreased from 92% to 89%, a decrease of 3% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw - material logistics [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks new drivers and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to limited changes in domestic installations, a slight warming in the terminal atmosphere, and a lack of significant contradictions between supply and demand [1][5]. - MEG is in a de - stocking cycle, with limited downside space. The supply - demand structure is relatively optimistic, and it is expected to undergo narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support. As of August 8, the Asian PX closing price was $831.67 per ton CFR China, down $14 per ton from August 1 [17]. - **PX Device Status**: There were no device changes during the week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35%, unchanged from the previous week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.95%, a decrease of 0.03% [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Difference**: As of August 8, the PX - naphtha price difference was $261.2 per ton, up $19.38 per ton from August 1. The downstream market was in the off - season, and the terminal market support was poor, but with the commissioning of new PTA devices, there was an expected increase in demand, resulting in narrow - range fluctuations in the PX - naphtha price difference [23]. 3.2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, some installations in East China were shut down for maintenance or reduced production due to efficiency issues, leading to a significant reduction in overall supply. The terminal was in the traditional off - season, and demand changes were minimal. The supply - demand balance sheet shifted to de - stocking. However, due to the impact of OPEC production increase on crude oil prices, the PTA price center oscillated downward. As of August 8, the PTA spot price was 4,670 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 17 [26]. - **Device Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a decrease of 3.75% compared to the previous week. Multiple installations in East China were shut down or under maintenance, and some enterprises reduced production due to efficiency issues, resulting in a significant reduction in domestic production this period. In August, with the mass production of Hailun Petrochemical and maintenance plans of Tongkun, Yisheng, and Hengli, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA devices may drop to around 74% [29]. - **Processing Fees**: The processing fees of PTA decreased significantly this week due to increased long - term supply pressure, active sales by major producers, and tight supply of raw material PX. With an expected increase in supply and average demand, the supply - demand balance sheet shows narrow - range de - stocking. However, due to efficiency issues, some enterprises reduced production. PTA is expected to rebound at a low valuation, and the processing fees may be slightly repaired [30]. - **Supply - Demand Balance in August**: In August, with the mass production of new PTA devices and multiple planned maintenance installations, and considering the potential reduction in polyester load due to continuous losses, the supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - range balance [33]. 3.3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: At the beginning of the week, influenced by crude oil and macro factors, the price of ethylene glycol declined. However, the de - stocking of supply and demand provided positive support, limiting the market decline. When the price dropped to around 4,450 yuan, it stabilized and rebounded. As of August 8, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4,456 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,480 yuan per ton [39]. - **Device Utilization**: The overall capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 58.28%, a decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 66.47%, an increase of 2.59%. In August, for domestic production, some existing devices will restart and undergo maintenance simultaneously, and the restart of a major factory in Jiangsu is postponed, resulting in a slight increase in overall production [42]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons compared to August 4 and an increase of 5.85 tons compared to July 31. As of August 13, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 10.17 tons, including 3.57 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5.9 tons in Taicang, and 0.7 tons in Jiangyin [45]. - **Processing Profits**: The supply - demand de - stocking logic still exists. After a decline this week, ethylene glycol rebounded. The prices of the raw material market fluctuated, resulting in both increases and decreases in the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process. As of August 8, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $98.67 per ton, a decrease of $14.29 per ton compared to the previous week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 21.33 yuan per ton, a decrease of 93.53 yuan compared to the previous week [48]. 3.4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. After the commissioning of Youshun's new device, the load gradually increased, and Huaya's device restarted after a short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight increase in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will increase slightly next week [51]. - **Terminal Impact on Polyester**: In July, polyester factories were affected by terminal restrictions and poor profit levels, resulting in a decline in the polyester operating rate, but the decline was limited. In August, with both maintenance and restart plans and new device commissioning, but considering the poor demand outlook, it is expected that the monthly polyester production will decline slightly [52]. - **Differentiation in Polyester Product Capacity Utilization**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 90.66%, a 0.85% decrease compared to the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.49%, a 1.81% increase compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.36%, a 1.85% increase compared to the previous week [57]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to pre - replenishment, the factory sales data was average this week, and the finished product inventory increased slightly [58]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased slightly. Polyester products were mostly in a wait - and - see state this week, with limited downward space and partial cash - flow repair [62]. - **Textile Industry Situation**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. In August, the inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but due to high inventory in fabric production factories and sufficient supplies from middlemen, there was no significant improvement in domestic and foreign orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [67]. 3.5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost End**: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support [68]. - **Supply End**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a 3.75% decrease compared to the previous week, and domestic production decreased significantly. The total capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week [69]. - **Demand End**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. The inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but there was no significant improvement in orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [69]. - **Inventory**: PTA was in a de - stocking state this week. As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase compared to the previous period [69].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 10, 2025 [1][2] - It covers PX, PTA, and MEG, including supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX - naphtha spread strengthened to $268/ton from $241 last week, and PX - MX spread rose to $123/ton from $113 [4] - With potential new MX plants in August, the PX - MX spread may remain high - The PX futures monthly spread showed an upward trend, and the basis (foreign - domestic spread) strengthened in 2025 [19][21] Supply - China's PX operating rate was 82% (+0.9%), and Asia's was 73.6% (+0.2%) [3][45] - Domestic supply is abundant with plant restarts and load increases, while overseas supply in Japan and South Korea has a mix of restarts and maintenance Demand - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [3][5] - PTA processing fees dropped to 170 yuan/ton, with potential unplanned production cuts or maintenance Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct 9 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or EB for inter - commodity trading [4] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - PTA spot processing fees remained around 200 - 250 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract processing fees dropped from 360 to 330 yuan/ton [5] - The basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread weakened Supply - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [5][83] - Planned restart capacity is 470 million tons, and planned maintenance capacity is 425 million tons Demand - Bottled PET production cuts ended, but destocking was average, and load recovery is expected in late August to early September [5] - Short - fiber and filament factories' downstream profits improved slightly, but production resumption depends on terminal orders Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct range operations for 9 - 1 inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [5] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The single - side valuation is in a volatile market, and the monthly spread declined with limited downside space [121] - MEG's relative valuation against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics reached a high for the year Supply - Due to the arrival of previously delayed shipments and the expected restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 90 - million - ton new plant, domestic operating rates are rising [6] - Coal - based plants' profits are still high, and the operating rate is maintained at around 75% Demand - Similar to PTA, demand recovery depends on terminal orders [6] Strategy - Conduct range operations for single - side trading, 9 - 1 monthly spread range operations from - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads for inter - period trading; go long on L and short on MEG or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [6] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation in November [8] - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 250 - million - ton plant in June, Sanfangxiang's 300 - million - ton plant in August, and Xin Fengming's 300 - million - ton plant are planned [8] - MEG: Sichuan Zhengda Kai's 60 - million - ton plant was put into operation in May, Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, and Ningxia Kunpeng's 20 - million - ton plant [8] - Polyester: Anhui Youshun's 30 - million - ton (filament), Fujian Henghai's 30 - million - ton (filament), and other plants are planned [8]

Supply and Demand - As of August 7, PTA supply has improved with the restart of 150,000 tons and 120,000 tons facilities by Taiwan Chemical, while Jiaxing Petrochemical's 220 tons facility is under scheduled maintenance. Yisheng Materials' 720,000 tons facility has restored its load, and INEOS's 235,000 tons facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, PTA load has recovered to 76.2%, an increase of 3.6% [3] - On the demand side, new facilities that started at the end of July and previously shut down facilities have increased production. Additionally, some factories in long and short fiber sectors have slightly increased their load, with polyester's overall load rising to approximately 88.8%, an increase of 0.7%. However, the order atmosphere for grey cloth remains weak, and the market's inventory turnover is slow, limiting overall operating rates [3] Profitability - As of August 7, PTA's spot processing fee is around 166 yuan per ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures is 263 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - Despite a recent improvement in PTA supply and demand in August, the outlook remains weak due to the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Hailun Petrochemical and a continued weak order situation at the terminal. The PTA basis is expected to operate weakly. Overall, with a weak supply-demand outlook and limited support from crude oil, the rebound potential for PTA is insufficient. However, there is still some short-term support due to the overall improvement in domestic commodity sentiment and low PTA processing fees [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term trading range for TA between 4600-4800, with a recommendation for TA1-5 to hedge against high prices and to expand PTA processing fees at low levels around 250 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market saw price increases due to a rebound in the crude oil market and production cuts at some PTA plants, but the spot basis weakened due to continuous shipments from major suppliers. The ethylene glycol market maintained a strong - side oscillation, with spot prices rising slightly and the basis negotiation strengthening. The polyester market faced a complex situation, with factors such as changes in raw material prices, production and sales rates, and inventory levels affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 508.8 yuan/barrel on August 5, 2025, to 505.9 yuan/barrel on August 6, 2025, a decrease of 2.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 984.5 yuan/ton to 1047.6 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.2663 to 1.2849. PTA主力期价 increased from 4682 yuan/ton to 4724 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4660 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 144.6 yuan/ton to 160.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose from 161.6 yuan/ton to 174.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 839 to 844, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4399 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 101.04 yuan/ton to - 97.23 yuan/ton, and MEG internal market price rose from 4463 to 4491 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 78.04% to 77.49%, MEG start - up rate increased from 58.81% to 59.54%, and polyester load remained at 87.09% [2]. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged. POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows decreased by 27.0. The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 37% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6550 to 6535, the staple - fiber cash flow decreased from 171 to 129, and the short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 47% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5780 to 5795, the chip cash flow decreased from - 49 to - 61, and the chip production and sales rate increased from 73% to 87% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The commodity sentiment has weakened, the domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and the port inventory has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. However, the PTA basis has weakened, and the market replenishment willingness has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, to 527.9 yuan/barrel on August 1, 2025, a decrease of 3.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The PTA - SC price dropped from 947.0 yuan/ton to 907.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.29 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2453 to 1.2366, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 858 to 846, a decrease of 12; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 250 to 242, a decrease of 8 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 dropped from 4808 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64.0 yuan/ton; the PTA现货价格 dropped from 4825 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.0 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 189.0 yuan/ton to 173.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.4 yuan/ton; the PTA仓单数量 decreased from 29738 to 27731, a decrease of 2007 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 dropped from 4414 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (119.91) yuan/ton to (122.10) yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2 yuan/ton; the MEG内盘 price dropped from 4503 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain - **PX**: The PX开工率 remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工率 decreased from 76.64% to 74.06%, a decrease of 2.58% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG开工率 increased from 58.13% to 58.81%, an increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester负荷 decreased from 86.28% to 86.15%, a decrease of 0.13% [2]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged; POY现金流, FDY现金流, and DTY现金流 increased by 72.0, and the long丝产销 decreased from 27% to 25%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped from 6650 to 6600, a decrease of 50; the 涤短现金流 decreased from 116 to 138, an increase of 22.0; the 短纤产销 increased from 49% to 56%, an increase of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi光切片 price dropped from 5905 to 5845, a decrease of 60.0; the 切片现金流 increased from (79) to (67), an increase of 12.0; the 切片产销 decreased from 72% to 59%, a decrease of 13% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [3].