Core Viewpoint - The second "Qian Niu Ben Yue" production and sales connection conference aims to deepen cooperation between Guangdong and Guizhou, promoting the high-quality development of the Guizhou yellow cattle industry and enhancing the entry of Guizhou's quality beef products into the Guangdong market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was held in Jiangmen, Guangdong, and attracted government leaders, industry association representatives, and experts from both provinces to discuss the integration of Guizhou yellow cattle into the Guangdong market [4][5][6]. - The event included the release of the "Guangdong-Guizhou Standard for Customized Guizhou Beef" group standard, which aims to provide clear guidelines for the production, processing, and sales of Guizhou beef [43][44]. Group 2: Industry Development - Guizhou has been actively developing modern high-efficiency agriculture, with a projected cattle inventory of 4.6916 million heads and beef production of 228,900 tons in 2024, marking a 3.3% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The collaboration between Guangdong and Guizhou has led to over 100 billion yuan in cooperative funding and the establishment of more than 200 industrial projects in Guizhou [15][16][17]. Group 3: Market Potential - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has a beef consumption market exceeding 800,000 tons annually, presenting significant opportunities for Guizhou yellow cattle [21][39]. - Guizhou yellow cattle are recognized for their high amino acid and protein content, making them appealing in the market, although they still face challenges in brand influence and sales channels compared to other major cattle-producing regions [37][38]. Group 4: Business Initiatives - The Guizhou Agricultural Development Group has established 26 direct supply stores in the Greater Bay Area, selling 6,640 cattle and achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan, with plans to sign new orders worth 570 million yuan this year [31][32]. - The conference also featured a signing ceremony where over ten Guangdong enterprises reached agreements with Guizhou cattle breeding companies on various aspects, including base construction and sales channels [50].

期货日报网讯(记者谭亚敏)近日，由国元期货携手国元农险河南分公司共同承办的商丘牛饲料"保险+期 货"项目顺利结项，涉及项目金额约600万元，为当地肉牛养殖户带来价格保障，切实推动肉牛产业健康 发展。 "肉牛产业是我国粮食安全战略中的重要组成部分，随着供需关系的变化，肉牛市场价格波动更加频 繁，饲料原料价格也不断上涨，这对于肉牛养殖影响较大，农业产业积极运用金融工具已成为必然选 择，国元期货将坚持初心使命，不断为农业产业发展贡献力量"国元期货相关负责人介绍道。 未来，国元期货将继续发挥好国有金融企业的社会义务和责任，做优产品设计，发挥好金融"桥梁"作 用，促进农业产业健康发展，保障农民增收致富，以金融力量为乡村振兴赋能增效。 身处中原腹地的商丘市，其肉牛产业可以追溯到上个世纪80年代，经过几十年的发展，商丘的肉牛产业 从探索起步、快速发展转型升级至现今的高质量发展阶段。截至目前，商丘市牛存栏量达40余万头，出 栏量超11万头，稳居河南省前三强，喜人的成绩背后，是全产业链发展凝聚的强大动能，也是金融服务 实体成效的生动体现。 近年来，肉牛产业在蓬勃发展的同时也不可避免的面临诸多困难和挑战，主要体现在供需关系导致的 ...

Core Viewpoint - *ST Tianshan is facing significant financial pressure, leading to a strategic contraction in its upstream breeding business to ensure overall operational stability. The company plans to expand its breeding scale when financial conditions improve and market circumstances allow [1][5]. Company Summary - In April, *ST Tianshan sold 4 live cattle, generating revenue of 70,500 yuan, with month-on-month changes of -33.33% in sales volume and -20.89% in revenue, and year-on-year changes of -98.23% in sales volume and -95.68% in revenue [1]. - The company's main business is livestock farming, accounting for approximately 80% of its operations, primarily focusing on cattle breeding and beef cattle farming [1]. - In 2024, *ST Tianshan reported total operating revenue of 138 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, while net profit was -65.94 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase in losses of 199.74% [5]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 24.65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, and a net profit of -4.96 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses by 31.19% year-on-year [5]. Industry Summary - The beef cattle industry in China has faced challenges, including weakened external demand and insufficient domestic demand, leading to significant price declines for live cattle and beef products. The average monthly prices for beef and live cattle in 2024 dropped by 15% and 20%, respectively, reaching the lowest levels in five and ten years [2][4]. - The national beef cattle inventory at the end of 2024 was 10.047 million heads, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.39% compared to 2023, despite an increase of 11.81% over the past 11 years [3]. - The overall scale of beef cattle farming in China is gradually improving, with a stable production capacity, but the economic benefits for farmers have significantly declined due to market downturns [2][4].

来源：农民日报 "今年县里推出了'肉牛收入保险'，政府补80%，我自己出20%，既保牛死亡，又保收入，我就毫不犹豫 地参保了。"位于山西省晋中市榆社县，山西省扶贫龙头企业山西牧乐嘉畜牧科技有限公司负责人张晓 斌站在公司现代化牛舍前，望着栏里膘肥体壮的西门塔尔肉牛，脸上露出难得的笑容，去年牛肉价格跌 得厉害，他亏损了不少。 作为全县首批参保企业，张晓斌的1028头肉牛今年起有了"双重保障"，这让他对企业的未来充满信心。 肉牛养殖产业是榆社县乡村振兴的支柱产业，张晓斌的山西牧乐嘉畜牧科技有限公司则是该县肉牛养殖 产业的标杆企业。 "过去最怕两件事，一是牛肉价格跌，二是牛生病，市场波动亏的是我的钱，疫病防控不力要的是肉牛 的命。"张晓斌从事肉牛养殖行业10年，去年受全国畜产品价格低迷影响，他公司出栏的肉牛每头亏损 近1000元。 作为山西重点帮扶县，榆社县政府与太平洋产险山西分公司率先以"政银企户保"五位一体运作模式，创 新推出"肉牛收入保险"产品。即通过政府引导、财政补贴、保险兜底、企业参与、农户受益的协同机 制，用保险兜底的方式为肉牛养殖产业提供全方位保障。 在政银企协同机制下，"牛保险"不仅保收入，还送服务。 ...

牛肉批发市场周均价环比"五连涨"。 4月21日，农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测数据显示，2025年4月11日至17日的一周时间 里，牛肉批发市场周均价环比继续上涨，连续5周回暖，累计涨幅超过7%。 2025年3月以来，农产品批发市场牛肉价格走势向好，白条牛、活牛价格也回暖，多机构认为考虑供给因素影 响，2025年国内肉牛价格或迎拐点。 农业农村部发展规划司司长陈邦勋4月18日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，肉牛养殖亏损逐步减轻，部分地 区在育肥环节已经扭亏为盈。农业农村部将进一步协调强化财政金融政策支持等，巩固肉牛纾困成效。 受国内供给扩张以及进口牛肉冲击影响，2023—2024年国内牛肉行情持续回落，本土肉牛养殖户和相关企业出 现经营困难。据中国畜牧业协会，2024年出栏一头肉牛的亏损额在千元以上。不过，春节后牛肉价格走势向 好。据农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测，2025年4月11日至17日的一周时间里，牛肉批发市 场周均价为61.62元/公斤，环比上涨0.4个百分点，连续5周小幅上涨，累计涨幅超过7%。 白条牛、活牛价格也在回暖。商务部公布的白条牛批发价同样也连续五周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beef cattle industry [1] Core Insights - The beef cattle industry in China is expected to experience a significant cycle reversal in 2025, driven by supply adjustments and import controls [6] - The domestic beef market has faced challenges due to low-priced imports, leading to a decline in local beef prices from 2023 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply of beef cattle is anticipated to clear significantly, potentially mirroring the 2019 pig cycle, as the industry is currently in a prolonged state of loss [5][6] Overview: Supply and Demand Analysis - China is the largest beef producer and consumer globally, with a production share of 13% and a consumption share of 19% in 2024 [14] - The domestic beef production is projected to be 7.8 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.25% over the past decade [14] - The beef cattle supply adjustment is notably slower compared to other livestock, with a typical cycle from breeding to market taking around two years [10] Import Outlook - Future beef imports are likely to decrease in volume but increase in price due to domestic supply constraints and international market dynamics [4] - The U.S. is expected to see a reduction in beef cattle inventory, which will support higher local beef prices [4][6] Domestic Supply Outlook - The domestic beef cattle farming structure is highly fragmented, with a significant number of small-scale farmers, leading to inefficiencies [20][54] - The industry is currently experiencing deep losses, with reports indicating a loss of approximately 1,600 yuan per head by late 2024 [22] Conclusion - The report is optimistic about a reversal in the beef cattle cycle starting in 2025, with potential peak prices exceeding 60 yuan/kg, leading to historically high profits for farmers [6]