黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-21 市场成交偏弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾不减，玻碱弱势下行 市场分析 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化、玻璃产线点火及产区供给扰动等。 双硅：企业维持亏损，供给压制价格 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡偏弱，日内成交活跃。现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，市场成交重心下移。 供需与逻辑：玻璃供给维持低位回升趋势，中游贸易库存高企且投机需求同步走弱，去库压力加大。伴随消费旺 季即将结束，且个别产线仍存复产预期，预计玻璃需求或将进一步走弱，持续关注玻璃产线变动情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡运行，成交活跃。现货方面，市场成交整体一般，下游采购情绪谨慎，低价刚 需成交为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧不减，供应处于高位且仍存在增长预期。需求端保持韧性，去库压力贯穿全年， 持续关注纯碱供应变化及下游需求情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅期货主力合约震荡上涨，现货方面，硅锰市场表现尚可，周初市场观望情绪浓，6517北方市 场价格5630-5680元/吨，南方市场价格5650-5700元/吨。 逻 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 二、商品投资参考 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-10-21 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20251016 | 2025/09 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 35296.00 25660.00 | 37635.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251015 | 2025/09 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.50 | 11.70 | 11.50 ...

报告导读： 消息面上，中美将于本周开启新一轮贸易磋商 ，市场风险偏好有所改善。供需方面，最新的数据显示表观需求有所回升 ，但整体弱于去年同期，因 节假日因素导致建材库存回升，总库存下降速度偏慢压制期价，焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落， 未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷期价已经跌破了布林带下轨 ，短线反弹 后，上方 10 日均线的压力非常明显。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有，后市遇快速大幅下挫则及时止盈离场 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3045 | 8 | 0.26% | -38 | -1.23% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3215 | 11 | 0.34% | -46 | -1.41% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） ...

请阅读正文后的声明 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 | | | | | | 表1：10月20日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | 3037 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 一系列重要经济数据发布，"实现全年预期目标仍有较多有利条件" 观点分享： 10 月 20 日，党的二十届四中全会再北京开始举行。另外，一系列重要经济数据也在同 日发布。中国三季度 GDP 同比增长 4.8%，前三季度同比增长 5.2%；中国 9 月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 3%，8 月增长 3.4%，9 月限额以上单位餐饮收入下滑 1.6%，8 月为同比 增长 1%；中国 9 月规模以上工业增加值同比 6.5%，较 8 月增速加快 1.3 个百分点，装备制 造业和高技术制造业增势较好，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长 9.6%，工业机器人、 服务机器人、动车组等产品产量分别增长 29.8%、16.3%、8.6%；中国 1-9 月全国固定资产 投资同比下降 0.5%，制造业投资增长 4.0%；中国 1-9 月全国房地产开发投资同比下降 13.9%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 5.5%。对于上述数据，首先前三季度经济为全年实现 目标打下了良好基础，三季度单季增速亦符合预期；其次是工业产能利用率环比有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the main line may enter rotation, and the index opened higher and fluctuated. In the bond market, the bond futures weakened. The precious metals market showed an upward trend despite the easing of geopolitical and trade frictions. Different commodities in the commodity futures market also have their own characteristics, such as copper prices oscillating due to social inventory accumulation during the peak season, and alumina prices continuing to be under pressure due to supply - side pressure and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market opened higher and fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures all rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts oscillated narrowly. The China - US trade friction is in the mutual exploration stage. The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short term, but the index is expected to fall first and then rebound, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at a low price or try to sell put options at the support level [2][3][4] - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net repurchase of funds was conducted on October 20. The overall economic situation shows that the pressure to achieve the annual economic target is not significant, and the necessity of policy strengthening has decreased. The key factors affecting the bond market in the short term are risk preference, the implementation of the new fund redemption fee regulations, and the progress of the China - US trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the TL contract [5][6][7] Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rose synchronously with risk assets. The US economic operation and employment market are affected by government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The Fed's policy interest - rate cut path may strengthen the expectation of continuous easing and depress the US dollar credit. Geopolitical and other risk events are frequent, and investors may increase the allocation of precious metals. In the short term, before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, there are uncertainties in Trump's internal and external and tariff policies and the China - US trade negotiation process. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. For silver, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the London inter - bank lending and leasing rates, and it is advisable to be cautious in unilateral operations [8][9][10] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot quotes of container shipping to Europe show different ranges. The futures price of the main contract rose on the previous day. The current spot price is expected to gradually increase, which will drive the futures price to rise. It is expected that the short - term market will show a strong - side oscillating pattern. It is recommended to buy the main EC contract below 1600 [12][13] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The social inventory of copper increased during the peak season, and the copper price oscillated. The macro factors such as the potential US bank "thunderstorm" and the China - US tariff negotiation deadline need to be concerned. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the production of refined copper in October is expected to decline. The high copper price has a certain inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand has strong resilience. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 84000 - 85000 for the main contract [13][14][18] - **Alumina**: The alumina market continued its weak pattern, and the futures price continued to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The high - cost enterprises may reduce production to relieve the operation pressure. It is expected that the short - term spot price will continue to be under pressure, and the reference range for the main contract is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [18][20][21] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price maintained a high - level oscillating pattern, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively light. The macro situation is mixed, and the fundamentals show that the supply is stable, the demand has the resilience of the peak season, and the inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the reference range for the main contract is 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [21][22][23] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed an interval oscillating trend. The cost support is obvious, the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, the demand shows a mild recovery, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a strong - side oscillating trend, and the reference range for the main contract is 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [23][25][26] - **Zinc**: The zinc price oscillated. The supply is relatively loose, but the increase in production in the second half of the year may be limited. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the overseas inventory is low. The expected interest - rate cuts support the zinc price. The short - term price may be driven by macro factors, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. It is recommended that the main contract refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 [26][27][29] - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated at a high level. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the demand is weak. The traditional consumer electronics and home appliance markets have weak demand, while the AI and photovoltaic industries drive partial consumption. It is expected that the short - term macro - level fluctuations will increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the buying points caused by the decline in macro sentiment [30][32][33] - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general. The overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. It is expected that the price will oscillate within the range of 120000 - 126000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33][35][36] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price maintained a weak pattern. The macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are rising, the cost of nickel ore has support, but the price of nickel iron is weakening, and the peak - season demand is not significantly boosted. It is expected that the short - term price will be weakly adjusted, and the reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 [37][38][39] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. The supply increased during the peak season, the demand was optimistic, and the inventory continued to decline. The Pilbara Minerals will hold a lithium concentrate auction, and the demand - supply gap is expected to expand in October. It is expected that the short - term price will be strong, and the reference range for the main contract is 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [41][42][43] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel was stable. The cost of carbon elements has support, and the cost of iron elements may decline. The supply of iron elements increased in the first nine months, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The domestic demand is expected to be weak, but there is a policy support expectation in the fourth quarter, and the export is at a high level. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the plate inventory needs to be reduced through production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral operation and consider the carbon - iron arbitrage [44][45][47] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures continued to oscillate weakly. The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand from steel mills is weakening, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected that the iron ore price will be weak due to the weak steel price. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral operation and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling iron ore [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated upward. The domestic coking coal market rebounded after a slight decline, and the downstream procurement increased. The supply of domestic mines increased after the holiday, and the supply of imported Mongolian coal was tight. The demand from iron and steel enterprises was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at a low price in the short term and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling coke [52][53][54] - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated upward. The second - round price increase of coke is waiting to be implemented. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the coking industry's production decreased due to losses. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory is moderately reduced. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at a low price and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling coke [55][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of domestic soybean meal in the spot market rose steadily on October 20, and the price of rapeseed meal also increased. The demand expectation of US soybeans has improved, but the Chinese procurement is still zero. The new US soybeans have a high excellent - rate, and the Brazilian new - crop soybeans are sown smoothly. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still high. It is expected that the spot price will be difficult to improve this year, but the downward space is limited. The M2601 contract has support at around 2900, and the 1 - 5 positive spread may have opportunities [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded slightly. The profit of pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the second - fattening boosts the pig price. In the long term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and hold the LH3 - 7 reverse spread [62][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on factors such as macro - environment, seasonal changes, and policy impacts [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Bean Meal**: The macro - environment affects the market. International soybean pressure is high, and domestic bean meal may face supply pressure and price decline. Suggestions include shorting the 05 contract, conducting M11 - 1 positive arbitrage, and selling call options at high points [17]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are weak, and domestic sugar is expected to follow. It is recommended to short at high prices [20][21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is advisable to wait and consider going long on dips [24][25]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain prices are rebounding, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile. It is recommended to go long on the 12, 01, 05, and 07 contracts [28][29]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure persists, and prices may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and use a short - straddle strategy for options [30][32]. - **Peanuts**: There is a reduction in production, and the market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [34]. - **Eggs**: Demand is fair, but the egg price is still under pressure. It is recommended to close out short positions and wait [38]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [41][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: New cotton acquisition is accelerating, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait [45]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Demand is weak, and valuations are low. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to conduct long - short spread arbitrage on the volume - screw difference [48][49]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on dips for coking coal [51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and conduct cash - futures reverse arbitrage [52][54]. - **Ferroalloys**: Demand is expected to be weak, but valuations and costs provide support. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [55][56]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Due to the U.S. government shutdown and high expectations of Fed rate cuts, precious metals are expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options [59][60][63]. - **Copper**: The market is expected to consolidate in the short term, and the long - term trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct cross - market positive arbitrage [64][65]. - **Alumina**: Supply is showing marginal changes, and prices are expected to bottom - out at low levels. It is recommended to wait and observe [69][71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips [74][76]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to be strong and volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips [78]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and observe. Consider short - selling LME zinc and buying SHFE zinc if the ratio deteriorates [84]. - **Lead**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [86][89]. - **Nickel**: Accumulating inventories indicate an oversupply, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the shock range and sell a wide - straddle option combination [89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Demand is weak, and prices may be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and observe [94][95]. Other Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a full correction [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to avoid long positions in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Demand provides support, and supply has risks. Lithium prices are expected to rise [100].

作为资本市场基石，A股5400余家上市公司如何提升质量，是资本市场高质量发展的一道必答题。 随着一系列制度的完善，我国上市公司实现"量""质"齐升、结构优化。 完善公司治理是提高上市公司质量的重要一环。公司治理是通过一套包括正式或非正式的、内部或 外部的制度或机制来协调公司与所有利益相关者之间的利益关系，以保证公司决策的科学化，从而最终 维护公司各方面利益的一种制度安排。简单来说，公司治理就是保证利益相关者权益的一整套制度安 排。 上市公司治理是一个常谈常新的话题。近日，中国证监会发布了修订后的《上市公司治理准则》， 将自2026年1月1日起施行。此举旨在进一步规范上市公司董事、高级管理人员和控股股东、实际控制人 的行为，提升上市公司治理水平。中国证监会表示，下一步，将做好《上市公司治理准则》实施工作， 推动上市公司不断健全现代企业制度、提升规范运作水平。 《上市公司治理准则》修订以管好"关键少数"为出发点，抓住了问题的核心矛盾、主要方面、重点 环节，是上市公司治理监管理念持续优化、制度体系日益健全的重要标志。本次修订的主要内容包括完 善董事、高级管理人员监管制度；健全董事、高级管理人员激励约束机制；规范控股 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱运行，库存去化有限，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，供应持续收缩并至相对低位， 但库存相对偏高，且旺季减产动能有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，节后螺纹需求迎来回升，但依 旧是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，改善力度存疑。总之，螺纹供应虽维持高位，但需求表现 同样偏弱， ...

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/21 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/10/14 | 3110 | 3200 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 2025/10/15 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 2025/10/16 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 2025/10/17 | 3070 | 3210 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 2025/10/20 | 3120 | 3210 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3240 | | 变化 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | | 日期 | 天津热 ...