研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 有色金属周报-铅 基本面有所改善，铅价企稳回升 2025年12月9日 行情回顾 2 检修结束，原生铅开工回升 目录 CONCENTS 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。目前进口矿几乎无报价的现状 | | | | | 持续，2026年的长单谈判分歧较大，签订缓慢；国内贸易 | | | | | 市场上，随着银价接连走高，部分地区铅精矿资源已售罄 | | | | | 且加工费维持低位，部分炼厂四季度长单到货后暂停12月 | | | | | 采购计划，铅精矿市场供需双降，加工费维持平稳。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：随着报废量减少且炼厂开工较好，废电瓶 | 国内铅锭供给地域性收紧，下游消 | | | | 货源趋紧，价格跌势暂止。 | 费亦有所好转，加之宏观情绪偏暖， | | |  | 供给端：原生铅方面检修与复产并存，开工小幅波动，后 | 铅价逐步企稳回升，市场成交来看， | ...

铅周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 供需面改善 铅价反弹修复 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 李婷 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价企稳反弹。宏观面看，市场对降息 路径偏鸽押注升温，美元弱势运行，铜锡等有色品种 走强，带动铅价跟涨。 要点 基本面看，12 月内外铅精矿加工费持续回落，铅矿供 需紧张的格局短时难扭转。废旧电瓶价格小幅调整， 华北回收商收货遇阻，低价惜售的情况仍存，将限制 价格下调幅度，成本端支撑托底铅价。冶炼端看，部 分炼厂复产，11 月电解铅产量环比小幅回升，12 月江 西、云南及湖南等地炼厂检修增多，且多为交割品牌， 产量有望 ...

铅周报：库存低位叠加供应边际减量 铅价偏强震荡 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-145美元/干吨。铅精矿市场维持平稳，进口矿维持偏紧趋势。据SMM显示，2026年长单 签订具体价格谈判仍存在较大分歧。国内矿贸易市场上，由于多数冶炼厂提前预定了四季度铅精矿供应订单，因此市场上流通货源报价稀少。矿山报价以预售2026年报价为 主，个别矿山已完成2026年上半年铅精矿招投标。河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂进口矿长单到厂后国内采购需求小幅下滑，江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂加工费仍维持 低位，但因部分厂家检修停产或并未计划满产等原因，市场上铅精矿加工费暂无明显继续下跌迹象。 ➢ 冶 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：原生检修，需求增加，价格存支撑 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17150-17500元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 - ...

库存延续去库， 宏观氛围积极 铅月报 2025/12/05 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：11月铅价冲高回落，11月3日-12月4日沪铅加权收跌0.81%至17240元/吨，沪铅总持仓大幅下降3.96万手至8.01万手。SMM1#铅锭 均价17100元/吨，再生精铅均价17075元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价9875元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据钢联数据，国内社会库存去库至2.16万吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得1.66万吨，内盘原生基差-70元/吨，连续合约-连一合约 价差-25元/吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得25.32万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得12.88万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-43.64美元/吨，3-15价 差-90.6美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.218，铅锭进口盈亏为240.61元/吨。 ◆ ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a mixed situation with a decline in lead prices leading to improved downstream purchasing activity, while tight raw material supply continues to restrict smelter operations [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Lead ingot supply has gradually recovered since mid-November, but high lead prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, resulting in a price decline from previous highs [1]. - The lead concentrate market remains tight, with processing fees at historically low levels. Domestic smelters have begun winter stockpiling, but the import window for lead concentrate has not fully opened [2]. - Domestic lead concentrate resources are nearly sold out due to rising silver prices, leading to sparse market quotes and low processing fees. However, the arrival of previously contracted imports has alleviated some raw material shortages [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Trends - The willingness of traders to sell has improved as many domestic recycled lead smelters have shifted to a multi-raw material production model, reducing their reliance on waste batteries [3]. - Despite a decline in processing fees, the prices of by-products like sulfuric acid and silver remain high, keeping overall profits for smelters relatively strong [3]. - The downstream market for electric bicycle batteries is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive battery market is entering a peak replacement season, leading to increased production rates among larger enterprises [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The lead market is expected to see a regional tightening of supply as primary lead smelters enter maintenance phases, while recycled lead smelters maintain stable operating rates if raw material arrivals remain consistent [4]. - The recent decline in lead prices has led to a recovery in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with lead ingot inventories decreasing [4]. - The tight supply of raw materials is unlikely to improve significantly, which will continue to restrict smelter operations and limit the downward potential for lead prices [4].

上一交易日SMM1#铅锭平均价格较前日上涨0.15%，沪铅主力收盘较前一日持平。 【市场资讯】 12月4日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得16553吨，较上一交易日下降76吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计下 降10942吨，下降幅度为39.80%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计下降5092吨，下降幅度为23.53%。 本周多地再生铅冶炼厂反映废铅酸蓄电池到厂量有所减少，原料供应收紧。华北地区某大型再生铅冶炼 厂因原料紧缺，计划于下周开始停产，具体复产时间尚未确定。 分析观点： 银河期货研报：近期含铅废料价格有所反弹，再生铅冶炼成本有所抬升；叠加铅价相对低位，冶炼厂惜 售行为明显。国内原生铅冶炼存有检修，产量受到一定影响，国内社会库存及仓单均有减少。短期铅价 或区间偏强震荡，后续仍需关注库存及下游消费情况。 （12月4日）全国铅价格一览 表 规格 品牌/产 地 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海有色 17125元/ 吨 市场价 上海 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 广东南储 17200元/ 吨 市场价 广东省 广东南储有色现货市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is regionally tightened, and the price of lead may stop falling and stabilize. The raw materials of lead, including lead concentrate and waste batteries, are facing different situations. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the cost - support of waste batteries has loosened. On the supply side, the start - up rates of both primary and secondary lead have declined. On the demand side, the terminal market is differentiated, and the overall start - up rate of batteries has increased. The import profit window has opened, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,975 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.44% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic disk) decreased by 0.40% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The TC quotation of lead concentrate is stable with a weakening trend. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The profit of smelters is good, with a profit of 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. 2. Primary Lead - **Processing Fee and Profit**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit (excluding by - product benefits such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of primary lead decreased to 65.32% on a month - on - month basis [36]. - **Production and Maintenance Arrangements**: The total weekly production of primary lead decreased from 49,550 tons in the week of November 21 to 46,410 tons this week. Some enterprises had maintenance, resulting in production cuts [41]. 3. Secondary Lead - **Raw Material Price and Cost Support**: As of November 28, the average price of waste batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The cost support has loosened [48]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 220 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 12 yuan/ton as of November 28. The profit improved in the second half of the week as the lead price rebounded [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The start - up rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.5% [57][60]. 4. Lead Batteries - The start - up rate of lead batteries increased by 2.83 percentage points to 73.39%. The terminal market is differentiated. The electric bicycle battery market is weakening, while the automobile battery market is in the replacement peak season [67]. 5. Import and Export - As of November 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 3,200 yuan/ton, and the import was profitable at 143.13 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window has opened [78]. 6. Lead Ingot Inventory - As of November 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places was 3.5 tons, showing a decline. The warehouse inventory of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 9,100 tons, showing a month - on - month increase. As of November 28, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.78 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 26.09 tons, also showing a decrease [88][93]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94].

Core Viewpoint - Recent lead prices have shown a slight recovery, influenced by inventory levels, cost factors, and macroeconomic conditions [1] Inventory Factors - As of December 2, the average spot price for lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.29%) and a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton (0.73%) [1] - Downstream demand has led to a reduction in domestic warehouse receipts, with current lead ingot warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange being less than 20,000 tons, which has provided some support for lead prices [1] Cost Factors - The price of recycled batteries had previously faced downward pressure, making it difficult for recyclers to purchase at low prices, but there has been a slight recovery in battery prices, which has supported the bottom line for lead prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, leading to a weaker US dollar, which has generally supported the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - However, there are short-term expectations of weakening demand, which may limit the upward potential for lead prices [1]

炼厂减产增多 铅价企稳修整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续偏弱走势。宏观面看，美联储 位官员态度转鸽，12 月降息预期回升，美元回落至 100 关口下方，风险资产压力减弱。 要点 基本面看，LME 交仓压力放缓，但库存保持在 26.4 万 吨附近的高位，基金净多头持仓减半回落，伦铅延续 弱势拖累沪铅走势。内外铅精矿加工费维持弱势报价， 实际成交较寡淡。再生铅炼厂利润亏损扩大，对原料 压价采购，废旧电瓶报价小幅下调，成交情况一般。 冶炼端炼厂减停产较多，九华新材 11 ...