Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the lead price surges, the profits of smelters, especially secondary lead enterprises, have been significantly restored, and the supply shortage problem may be improved. Meanwhile, the high lead price suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, so the risk of the lead price rising and then falling is relatively large. Attention should be paid to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 17,300 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 3.05% to 17,595 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic disk) rose by 2.28% to 2,016.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased month - on - month to - 125 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit rebounded, and as of October 17, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 133.7 yuan/ton [31]. 2. Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate increased month - on - month to 67.57%. The production of some refineries that resumed production was lower than expected, resulting in a phased supply shortage [2][32]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production was expected to be 50,300 tons. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia had local maintenance, and some enterprises' production fluctuations recovered [37]. 3. Secondary Lead - As of October 24, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the stock in the hands of holders was limited, and they were reluctant to sell, so the price was prone to rise and difficult to fall [45]. - As of October 24, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 260 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 45 yuan/ton. The lead price strengthened, and the waste battery price did not follow the increase for the time being, so the smelter's profit increased significantly [51]. - As of October 23, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 134,700 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,920 tons. The refinery's operating rate increased, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to the improvement of downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the tight supply of primary lead, the accumulation of secondary lead finished product inventory was not obvious, but it might gradually increase in the future [54]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 7.1 percentage points month - on - month to 42.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 52,000 tons, showing an upward trend. The production increase of some refineries in Anhui and the resumption of production of a large - scale refinery in Inner Mongolia drove the overall increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [57]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 0.39 percentage points month - on - month to 75.36%. The energy storage battery market performed well, and the orders of medium - and large - scale enterprises were relatively full. The electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had some differences, with the original equipment supporting orders being better than the replacement orders. However, the soaring lead price might affect the enterprise's operating rate and raw material purchasing enthusiasm [64]. 5. Import and Export - As of October 17, the export loss of refined lead was about 3,100 yuan/ton. As of October 24, the import profit was 329.16 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was opened [74]. 6. Inventory - As of October 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 30,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. The warehouse of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 1,520 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. The resumption of production of refineries was lower than expected, while the downstream operating rate steadily increased and the purchasing was active, leading to a decrease in lead ingot inventory [84]. - As of October 24, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,300 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of October 23, the LME inventory was 235,400 tons, also showing a decrease [87]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from October 2024 to August 2025 [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures broke through and rose strongly. The smooth progress of China-US economic and trade consultations provided a good macro - atmosphere. The slow resumption of refineries, better - than - expected downstream demand, and vehicle control due to environmental protection in Henan intensified the short - term supply - demand mismatch. The social inventory dropped to a low level, triggering a soft squeeze on near - month contracts. Although refineries are resuming production and the lead ingot import window is open, it takes time. Before the market supply is effectively alleviated, the lead price is expected to remain volatile and strong [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 17th to October 24th, the SHFE lead price increased from 17,075 yuan/ton to 17,595 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,971 dollars/ton to 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 45.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.66 to 8.73, up 0.06. The上期所库存 decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 3.19 million tons, and the spot premium remained unchanged at - 215 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai lead futures PB2512 had an intraday abnormal movement on Thursday, breaking through 17,500 yuan/ton and continuing to rise. The main contract price increased with increased positions. On Thursday night, the market sentiment was digested, and on Friday, the lead price fluctuated and consolidated at a high level, finally closing at 17,595 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1%. LME lead fluctuated strongly. The easing of China - US trade relations improved market risk appetite, and the slight decline in LME inventory led to a small rebound after stabilization, returning above the 2,000 dollars/ton level, finally closing at 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. In the spot market, as of October 24th, the price of lead in Shanghai market was 17,490 - 17,550 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2511 contract. The high - level consolidation of Shanghai lead made the sellers' enthusiasm for selling average, with few and firm quotes. Due to the expanded price difference between futures and spot, traders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, and the spot circulation in the retail market further decreased. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the high price of lead made them cautious in purchasing, mostly relying on long - term contracts or digesting existing inventories [5]. Industry News - In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the import ore processing fee was - 125 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton. From January to August 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 51,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 17,000 tons in the same period last year. Hebei will control incoming vehicles, affecting the transportation of waste materials and lead ingots of local recycling lead and lead battery enterprises. An East China small recycling lead refinery postponed its resumption of production. Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, an 8% year - on - year increase. In September, the import volume of lead concentrate was 150,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. A Jiangxi recycling lead smelter suspended production in late October [8][9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycling lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][14][16][18][20][22][24][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The improvement in lead consumption has increased the downstream's enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement, and the domestic social lead inventory has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Positive factors for the terminal demand of the non - ferrous sector revealed in domestic important meetings have led to a significant increase in lead prices this week. However, due to the intermittent interference of trade dispute uncertainties and the suppression of demand caused by rising lead prices, the possibility of a continuous sharp increase in lead prices in the future is relatively low. The recommended trading strategy for next week is to buy on dips for hedging, with a suggested buying range of 17,250 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 24, the import ore market trading was stagnant, and sporadic quotes had little reference value. Domestically, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places were still in the process of winter storage, and partial maintenance slightly eased the supply pressure. There was a significant difference in processing fees between the north and the south. In the north, it was maintained at 300 - 400 yuan/metal ton, and some manufacturers with sufficient inventory quoted 500 - 600 yuan/ton; in the south, the competition was fierce, and some manufacturers purchased low - silver ore at zero processing fees to ensure production. Despite the recent sharp rise in silver prices, the market remained cautious about adjusting the pricing coefficient and it was expected to remain stable in the short term [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 24, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. Regional performance was differentiated: production in Henan and Yunnan was stable; a maintenance enterprise in Hunan only resumed half - production and had no plan to reach full production; production in North China increased slightly and was expected to return to normal next month. In addition, a factory in East China planned to conduct maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the electrolytic lead production line would start in November [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 24, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces decreased by 0.51 percentage points to 36.71%. Recycled lead enterprises generally lowered the purchase price of raw materials this week, and the weakening cost support led to a decrease in production willingness. Although some manufacturers replenished raw materials due to the decline in the price of waste batteries, the increase in production was mainly concentrated on long - term order delivery. The resumption of production of a large enterprise in Inner Mongolia drove the regional operating rate to rise, while other regions maintained stable operation. An Anhui smelter planned to start maintenance on the weekend, which was expected to significantly reduce the local operating level next week. Overall, the recycled lead industry showed a differentiated trend of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south" [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 24, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces increased by 7.10 percentage points to 42.21%. Regionally, the operating rate in Anhui increased slightly due to the production increase of an individual smelter; Jiangsu and Henan remained stable; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia soared by 56 percentage points driven by the resumption of production of a large factory. The high - level operation of lead prices improved smelting profits, and enterprises' production willingness increased. It was expected that the operating rate would still have room for further increase next week [2] - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 23, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions decreased to 3.19 tons, a change of - 2.05 tons from the previous week. The LME inventory changed by - 4375 tons to 235375 tons compared with the previous week [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with lead futures showing significant price movements and positive market sentiment driven by various factors including inventory levels and production rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 23, lead futures opened at 17,160.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 17,760.00 CNY, marking a 3.12% increase [1] - The lead market is characterized by a strong performance, with expectations for continued upward movement in the short term [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Lead ore port inventories have increased, while lead concentrate treatment charges (TC) have stabilized, maintaining high operating rates for primary lead smelting [1] - The supply of recycled lead is tightening, with a recovery in profits for recycled lead smelting, leading to increased weekly operating rates [1][2] - Domestic and foreign lead inventories are on the rise, indicating a slowdown in demand [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers are experiencing a decline in inventory levels, with battery factory stocks dropping to 19.7 days and dealer inventories to 39.7 days, alleviating pressure on finished goods [1] - Despite the traditional peak season for battery production, demand remains cautious, with a slow recovery observed in the overall market [2] - Emerging storage demand is showing positive trends, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional demand sectors [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report After the holiday, both supply and demand in the lead market increased. Considering that the resumption of production of secondary lead was restricted by profit, raw materials, etc., and the transportation of lead ingots coincided with the fruit and vegetable season, the market circulation of lead was limited. Therefore, the lead price was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.15% to 16,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.38% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 2.13% to 1,971.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 110 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter profit declined, and as of October 10, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 68.7 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.64% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major domestic primary lead smelters was expected to be 50,100 tons, a decrease from the previous week, mainly due to local maintenance and production fluctuations in Inner Mongolia [31][36]. 3.3 Secondary Lead - As of October 17, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the holders had limited supply and were reluctant to sell, so the waste battery price was relatively firm and was expected to rise further [44]. - As of October 17, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 336 yuan/ton. The lead price weakened, while the waste battery price was firm, resulting in a slight decline in smelter profit [50]. - As of October 16, the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters decreased to 137,200 tons, and the finished product inventory increased to 3,860 tons. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 35.1%, and the weekly production reached 46,600 tons. However, considering the average downstream consumption and limited raw material supply, the increase in the operating rate was expected to be restricted [53][56]. 3.4 Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 13.26 percentage points to 74.97%. After the double - festival holiday, the downstream operations basically returned to normal. The demand for electric bicycle and automobile batteries in the terminal market increased steadily, and the performance of battery production enterprises was better than expected [63]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of October 10, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the import was profitable at 49.44 yuan/ton, and the import profit window opened [76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of October 16, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, an increase; the inventory of major primary lead delivery brands in warehouses was 2,980 tons, a decrease. Due to delivery and transfer, some inventory became visible, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased as expected. Considering the improvement in demand, the subsequent increase in social inventory might be limited [87]. - As of October 17, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 41,700 tons, an increase; as of October 16, the LME inventory was 250,400 tons, an increase [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead ore and scrap batteries remains tight, providing good bottom support at the cost end. However, from mid - to late October, some electrolytic lead and secondary lead smelters will resume production, and there is an expectation of imported crude lead arriving, so the supply will increase marginally. On the demand side, the peak season for battery replacement in electric bicycles is coming to an end, and battery exports are still affected by tariffs and anti - dumping policies, so consumption is relatively flat. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Points - Macroscopically, there is still uncertainty in Sino - US trade friction, the market pays attention to its subsequent development, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October remains high, the US dollar continues to be weak, which supports metal prices. Fundamentally, the supply of lead ore and scrap batteries is tight, providing cost support. The supply will increase marginally as some smelters resume production and there is an expectation of imported crude lead. The demand is flat as the peak season for electric bicycle battery replacement is ending and battery exports are restricted. It is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5]. 3.2 Trading Data - From October 10th to 17th, SHFE lead dropped from 17,140 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; LME lead dropped from 2,014.5 dollars/ton to 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.51 to 8.66. The inventory of SHFE increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 13,400 tons to 250,400 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 215 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 adjusted slightly at a high level, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.38%. LME lead continued to fall from a high level, closing at 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.13%. In the spot market, there is obvious regional supply tightness. Some holders are reluctant to sell at low prices or raise prices. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some are waiting and watching. In terms of inventory, LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly, and it is expected that the social inventory will not increase significantly [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - From October 11th - 17th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 110 dollars/dry ton, both remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short lead in the next year was 6.8%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global lead ore supply will increase by 0.7% to 457,000 tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 467,000 tons in 2026; the global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 1.325 million tons in 2025 and by 0.9% to 1.337 million tons in 2026. The global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025 and 102,000 tons in 2026 [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View After the holiday, refinery production resumed, and downstream industries also restarted, leading to an increase in both supply and demand in the lead market. However, due to pre - holiday inventory preparation by downstream enterprises and general terminal demand, most enterprises adopted a production - to - order model. As a result, lead ingot transactions were average, and with the addition of imported supplies, there was a high risk of lead ingot inventory accumulation, which might put pressure on prices. The price was expected to operate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and there was a need to be vigilant against price pullbacks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.74% to 16,925 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 1.18% to 17,140 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.44% to 2,014.5 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The provided content shows the basis trends from 2022 - 2025, but specific analysis is not given [14]. 3.2 Primary Lead Supply - **Raw Material Tightness**: The tight supply of lead concentrates remained unchanged. Domestic mines had completed fourth - quarter output pre - sales and suspended quotes. After the holiday, the ore trading market was not active. With the cooling weather, the output of some mines might decline. Meanwhile, refineries were still highly motivated to produce due to high precious metal prices. The processing fees for lead concentrates were likely to fall rather than rise. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at - 110 US dollars/dry ton [2][31]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of primary lead remained unchanged at 68.47% compared to the previous period. The total weekly output of major domestic primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of October 10 was 51,550 tons, with some enterprises resuming production after maintenance [32][37]. 3.3 Secondary Lead Supply - **Waste Battery Price and Refinery Profit**: As of October 10, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead refineries remained stable. As of October 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 259 yuan/ton [43][50]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead refineries increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 5.6 percentage points to 34%. The weekly output of secondary lead reached 44,300 tons [53][56]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 6.58 percentage points to 61.71%. After the holiday, downstream operations resumed as expected, but the terminal market showed little change compared to before the holiday. The new orders for electric bicycles were acceptable, but the replacement demand was average. The automotive battery market did not have a strong peak season, especially the export sector [64]. 3.5 Import and Export As of October 10, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 530.58 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, the import window might open in the future [73]. 3.6 Inventory - **Social and Factory Inventory**: As of October 9, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 36,900 tons, showing inventory reduction; the factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 10,700 tons, a week - on - week increase. Before the holiday, refineries mostly carried out maintenance, and downstream enterprises stocked up, leading to a reduction in social inventory. During the holiday, refinery production resumed, and factory inventory accumulated [87]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of October 10, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 39,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease; the LME inventory was 237,000 tons, showing an increase [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated upwards, with the total position decreasing. The LME Lead also rose. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories declined continuously. Considering the strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals recently, the sector sentiment is positive. It is expected that the Shanghai Lead will oscillate widely at a low level in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.57% to 17,140 yuan/ton, with a 0.46 - thousand - hand decrease in total positions. The LME Lead rose 1.63% to 2,026.5 dollars/ton. As of the report end, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, the recycled refined lead average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 94 thousand tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 10 thousand tons. The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62% [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: At the primary end, the visible lead ore inventory declined again, with a slower inventory accumulation rate than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. Although raw material shortages restricted primary smelting start - up, the start - up rate was still higher than in previous years. At the recycled end, the scrap inventory increased slightly, and the decline in raw material prices promoted the repair of recycled smelting profits, with a slight recovery in recycled start - up. The downstream battery enterprises' start - up was higher than in previous years. After the battery inventory pressure decreased, downstream purchases increased slightly. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories decreased continuously, and combined with the recent strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the sector sentiment was good [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 134.8 thousand physical tons, a 15.9% year - on - year change and a 10.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 919.7 thousand physical tons, a 31.5% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of silver concentrates in August was 185 thousand physical tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 20.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,191.1 thousand physical tons, a 6.3% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, China's lead concentrate production was 156.1 thousand metal tons, a 13.9% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total lead concentrate production was 1,097.7 thousand metal tons, an 11.8% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of lead - containing ores in August was 154.9 thousand metal tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 14.8% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028.2 thousand metal tons, an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year change [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In August 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% year - on - year change and a 7.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,125.9 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% cumulative year - on - year change. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395.9 thousand tons, a 1.4% year - on - year change and a 4.1% month - on - month change. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2,256.5 thousand tons, a 4.6% cumulative year - on - year change [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, and the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327.8 thousand tons, a 12.4% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,860.9 thousand tons, an 8.3% cumulative year - on - year change [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Output**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 86.4 thousand tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31.9 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 9.8 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317 thousand tons, a 5.5% year - on - year change and a - 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,888.8 thousand tons, a 1.7% cumulative year - on - year change [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11.3 thousand tons, an - 86.1% year - on - year change and a - 10.5% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67.8 thousand tons, a - 43.2% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 656.2 thousand tons, a - 5.4% year - on - year change and a 0.3% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 5,172.7 thousand tons, a 3.3% cumulative year - on - year change [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Demand**: The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62%. In August 2025, the apparent domestic lead ingot demand was 639.3 thousand tons, a - 5.3% year - on - year change and a - 1.9% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative apparent lead ingot demand was 5,117.7 thousand tons, a 1.6% cumulative year - on - year change [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.78165 million, and the net export weight was 97.9 thousand tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 61.2 thousand tons, an - 11.3% year - on - year change and an - 8.2% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494.1 thousand tons, a - 4.4% cumulative year - on - year change [43]. - **Inventory Changes**: In August 2025, the lead battery finished product factory inventory decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the dealer lead battery inventory days decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles led to high replacement demand, and the starting battery start - up rate remained relatively high. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drove the steady increase in lead - acid battery demand [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16.9 thousand tons. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55 thousand tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8 thousand tons. From January to July, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53.9 thousand tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton [74]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned slightly net short, the net long positions of LME Lead investment funds increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bearish [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the resumption of production at primary lead smelters, the gradual resumption of secondary lead production, and the arrival of some crude lead, the supply side shows a recovery trend. However, downstream battery companies have completed their stockpiling, and the inventory reduction will slow down. There is a supply - demand mismatch during the National Day holiday, and there is an expectation of inventory increase, which will put pressure on lead prices. With fewer trading days this week and cautious pre - holiday funds, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly at high levels [3][7] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,150 yuan/ton to 17,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 2,003 dollars/ton to 2,001.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio dropped from 8.56 to 8.55; the SHFE inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.84 million tons to 4.64 million tons; the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 fluctuated at a high level, closing at 17,110 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The LME lead first declined and then rose, maintaining a sideways oscillation, closing at 2,001.5 dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 0.07%. In the spot market, near the National Day holiday, the supply of circulating goods was limited. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and most lead battery companies had completed pre - holiday stockpiling and only maintained rigid procurement. The inventory decreased significantly but the downward trend will slow down later [5][6] Industry News - In October, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 115 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 dollars/dry ton. A large smelter in Henan resumed production on September 26th. In August, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates decreased by 6.51% month - on - month and increased by 30.87% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc increased by 43.3% month - on - month and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year; the export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 8.35% month - on - month and increased by 1.71% year - on - year [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][18]