Group 1 - The price of tungsten products is reaching new highs due to a decrease in supply influenced by the first batch of tungsten concentrate quotas and environmental inspections in China [1] - The increase in tungsten supply from foreign mines such as Sandong and Dolphin is below expectations, while the Bakuta tungsten mine has commenced production but lacks local smelting capacity, necessitating transportation back to China for processing before export [1] - The overall balance sheet for tungsten is tight, with a more pronounced supply gap overseas compared to domestic levels, leading to an optimistic price outlook [1] Group 2 - The domestic antimony price has nearly bottomed out, with the Ministry of Commerce responding to export license applications for antimony, indicating compliance reviews will be conducted [1] - Downstream terminal demand for antimony is at a low point, but expectations for reduced production in photovoltaic glass have been realized, and the traditional peak season for flame retardants in September and October is approaching [1] - If export demand recovers effectively alongside the peak season for flame retardants, it is expected to significantly boost domestic antimony prices [1]

Summary of Antimony Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global antimony production has sharply decreased, with an estimated 100,000 tons of metal equivalent from mining raw materials in 2024, comparable to China's production a decade ago, primarily due to a lack of new large antimony mines and neglect of antimony production in associated ores, leading to rising antimony prices [2][3] - China remains the largest antimony smelting country globally, with smelting products exceeding 100,000 tons in 2024, relying on approximately 30% of raw materials imported from countries like Myanmar, Thailand, and Tajikistan [2][5] - Other countries such as Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey have antimony smelting plants, but they face challenges like insufficient raw materials or poor quality [2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global antimony supply-demand balance for 2024 is roughly stable, with total demand around 110,000 to 120,000 tons, where flame retardants account for about half of the consumption [2][7] - The lead-acid battery sector shows stable demand but faces uncertainty due to the rise of lithium batteries [2][8] - China's antimony consumption in 2024 is projected at approximately 72,000 tons, representing about 70% of global consumption, with 35% used in flame retardants and the remainder in lead alloys, polyester, and photovoltaic glass [12] Export Control Policies - Starting August 2024, China will implement export controls on antimony products to counteract U.S. and Western technology blockades, complicating the export approval process [4][13] - The approval process involves multiple departments, and the first batch of approvals is expected by the end of the month or early next month [14][19] Economic Impact and Challenges - Despite a significant drop in export volume (down 70-80% in the first half of 2025), the economic impact on domestic antimony companies is limited due to rising prices, with the export value decline being less than 50% [15] - The industry faces challenges such as smuggling and strengthened export controls, which have affected the export of antimony products [15] Recycling and Recovery - Antimony is one of the most challenging metals to recycle, with only about 20% of the annual demand of 120,000 tons being recoverable, primarily from lead-acid batteries [17][20] - The recycling rates in the U.S. are relatively advanced, but the overall recoverable amount remains low [18] Technological and Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies lead in smelting technology, achieving the best recovery rates, which gives them a competitive edge over other countries like Oman and Turkey, which lack advanced technology [24][25] - New innovative processing techniques are being developed, such as the acidic wet method by Hunan Gold Company, which can process over 10,000 tons of metal [26] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry currently demands about 10,000 tons of antimony, with stable procurement and ordering despite facing challenges [29] - The flame retardant market is experiencing pressure due to rising prices, leading to the emergence of substitutes, which could permanently affect demand if prices remain excessively high [30] Conclusion - The antimony industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, regulatory changes, and evolving market demands, with significant implications for pricing and production strategies moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - The recent shift in China's export control policy for compliant antimony products is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on antimony prices, with a potential price increase anticipated in August and September [1][2]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - Antimony prices have experienced a cycle of decline, increase, decline, and stabilization since H2 2024, with export demand being a key variable influencing these changes [1]. - The price dynamics are influenced by several factors, including export control measures, photovoltaic glass production adjustments, and smuggling activities [2][3]. Group 2: Export Control and Smuggling - Following the implementation of export controls in September 2024, the price gap between domestic and international markets widened significantly, leading to increased smuggling activities [2]. - The Chinese government has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, resulting in a substantial decline in antimony export volumes [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent easing of export management signals a potential recovery in export volumes, with expectations for improvement in August and September [3]. - Projections indicate that the marginal supply-demand balance for antimony may reverse in Q3 2025, potentially driving prices upward [4].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recent shift in the national stance on compliance antimony export controls since July is expected to alleviate the primary factors suppressing antimony prices over the past three months, leading to a potential price increase driven by marginal demand recovery [1][4]. - Antimony prices have experienced four phases of decline and stabilization since H2 2024, with export demand being a key variable influencing price movements [2][14]. - The crackdown on smuggling has made significant progress, and the easing of antimony export management is anticipated to restore export volumes [3][24]. Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - The strength of export demand has become a critical factor in determining antimony prices since the implementation of export controls in September 2024 [13]. - Antimony prices fell from 161,000 CNY/ton to approximately 140,000 CNY/ton between September and November 2024 due to reduced export demand and capacity cuts in photovoltaic glass [14]. - A recovery in export demand and photovoltaic installations from February to April 2025 led to a rapid price increase from 144,000 CNY/ton to 236,000 CNY/ton [14]. Progress in Smuggling Crackdown - The significant price gap between domestic and international markets has stimulated smuggling activities, with the price difference expanding from 28,000 CNY/ton to approximately 200,000 CNY/ton post-export controls [3][19]. - The Chinese government has initiated a special action to combat strategic mineral smuggling, resulting in a drastic decline in export volumes from 800 tons/month to 225 tons and 138 tons in May and June 2025, respectively [3][26]. - The easing of export management in July 2025 is expected to enhance compliance and restore export volumes, with expectations of recovery in August and September [4][24]. Data Analysis - The marginal supply-demand balance for antimony is projected to reverse in Q3 2025, potentially driving prices upward [5][27]. - The analysis indicates that August and September 2025 may serve as a turning point for marginal demand, with expected exports recovering to 500 tons and 900 tons, respectively [30]. - The marginal demand is anticipated to shift from -82 tons in August to +249 tons, continuing to improve in September [30]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to related stocks in the antimony sector, including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead [31].

Summary of Hunan Gold Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hunan Gold - **Industry**: Gold and Antimony Mining Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production and Sales Outlook**: - Hunan Gold expects a slight increase in gold production in Q2 compared to Q1, but sales may fall short due to declining gold prices and export restrictions. The annual gold production target is set at 4.2 tons, and antimony production target is 18,000 tons, with current progress lagging behind these goals [2][4][6]. 2. **Resource Integration Efforts**: - The company is focusing on resource integration at the Hunan Gold level, particularly in the Wangu mining area. There is currently no clear solution, but plans are in place to merge the Central mining area with the Gold Cave mining area, potentially altering the cash acquisition strategy [2][5]. 3. **Inventory Management**: - Inventory reduction was effective in Q1, but Q2 is heavily impacted by export issues, leading to reduced export volumes and a focus on domestic sales [2][7]. 4. **Price Fluctuations**: - Antimony prices have dropped from 260,000 CNY at the end of March to 180,000-190,000 CNY, influenced by export restrictions and downstream cost pressures, resulting in a weak supply-demand balance [2][10]. 5. **Hedging Strategy**: - Hunan Gold engaged in partial hedging in Q1, but due to a unilateral price decline, not all positions were closed. Specific details on the hedging outcomes remain unclear [2][8]. 6. **Contractual Dynamics**: - There have been no significant issues with contract cancellations or defaults from downstream companies, as sales prices are determined on the same day, without long-term agreements [2][11]. 7. **Construction Progress of Gansu Jiaxin Mining**: - Gansu Jiaxin Mining's construction is proceeding as planned, with a timeline of 1.3 to 1.5 years, although some delays are expected due to coordination with minority groups and administrative processes [3][12]. 8. **Resource Reserves**: - The estimated proven reserves in the Wangu mining area exceed 80 tons, although some data is still pending review and approval [2][13]. 9. **Mining Grade and Cost**: - The average grade in the Wangu mining area is approximately 3 to 4 grams, but actual extraction grades may be slightly lower. Cost comparisons can be made with similar operations in the region [2][14]. Additional Important Information - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with downstream demand showing signs of weakness due to price volatility and export limitations [4][10]. - The company is closely monitoring the impact of external factors on pricing and sales, particularly in the context of international contracts and domestic market conditions [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

Core Viewpoint - The supply of antimony from Jidi Gold is expected to significantly shrink in 2025, exacerbating the supply tightness in the market [2] Industry Status - On March 5, Jidi Gold released its 2024 annual report, indicating an antimony production of 12,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53%. The production in the second half of 2024 is projected to be 4,056 tons, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines of 70% and 53% respectively [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic antimony price has reached a historical high due to a combination of strong demand and reduced imports. The demand from sectors like home appliances is peaking, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to ramp up production ahead of market reforms [3] - In December 2024, China exported 1,571 tons of antimony oxide, a month-on-month increase of 102%. However, imports of antimony ore fell significantly, with 2,141 tons imported in December 2024, a decrease of 63% [3] - The domestic antimony ingot price was reported at 170,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 8% compared to previous highs. The price difference between domestic and international markets is over 250,000 yuan per ton, indicating high import costs [3] Long-term Outlook - The supply-demand tightness for antimony is expected to persist, with global antimony prices likely to rise further. The growth in photovoltaic installations and the increasing penetration of dual-glass components are anticipated to drive demand for antimony in glass applications [4] - The projected supply-demand gap for antimony from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at -28,000, -25,000, and -29,000 tons respectively, representing -18%, -15%, and -18% of demand [4]

摘要 行业近况 3月5日晚，极地黄金发布2024年年报，2024年锑产量1.27万吨，同比-53%。其中2H24锑产量4056吨，同/ 环比-70%/-53%。 评论 我们预计极地黄金2025年锑供应或将大幅收缩，进一步加剧供应紧张态势。 一是公司已于2024年完成 Olimplada项目中含锑的Vostockny矿坑第四阶段开采，目前正在进行第五阶段的剥离活动，需持续至2026- 2027年。二是2024年底锑存货价值约100万美元，较2023年底2200万美元大幅下降，2024年公司对于锑库 存已大幅消化。三是我们测算2024年极地黄金锑矿产量占全球比例约为10%，在全球锑矿供应刚性背景 下，我们认为其供应大幅收缩或对全球锑行业供需产生较大影响。 内外需共振叠加进口矿收缩，国内锑价创历史新高。 一是家电等领域用阻燃剂正值采购旺季；我们认为新 能源上网电价市场化改革[1]有望推动国内光伏行业今年6月1日前抢装，光伏玻璃日熔量企稳回升。据隆众 石化网，3月6日光伏玻璃日熔量8.68万吨，周环比+6%，较今年2月最低点+8%。二是据海关数据，2024年 12月我国出口氧化锑1571吨，环比+102%。三是内外盘 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Antimony Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the antimony (T) sector, with a strong bullish outlook expressed by analyst Wang Qingyang from Guojin Metal Materials Group, indicating that the market is far from over and remains optimistic about future price increases [2][22]. Key Points and Arguments - **Historical Price Trends**: Antimony prices have shown significant cyclical and volatile trends, with prices rising from approximately 40,000 RMB per ton in 2008 to 110,000 RMB in 2011, driven by commodity bull markets and resource quota policies [2]. - **Current Market Dynamics**: The recent surge in antimony prices is attributed to multiple factors, including commodity bull markets, policy adjustments (such as rare earth quotas and export controls), and the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry [2]. - **Export Controls Impact**: Recent export controls on high-purity antimony have led to a drastic drop in export volumes, from 5,000 tons in September to only 50 tons in October, significantly tightening market supply [4]. - **Future Price Expectations**: With the anticipated recovery of exports and the rebuilding of international trade order, domestic antimony is expected to shift from surplus to scarcity, with prices projected to rise from a base target of 250,000 RMB per ton to potentially over 300,000 RMB [2][22]. - **Global Supply Chain Position**: China controls about 50% of global antimony ore production and nearly 70% of smelting capacity, highlighting its significant bargaining power in the global supply chain [9]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Market Influence**: The price increase in photovoltaic glass has significantly boosted industry margins, with a notable increase in gross margins by nearly 10 percentage points due to rising glass prices [11]. - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The global antimony production is approximately 130,000 tons, with an annual growth rate of only 2%-3%. The decline in production from companies like Russia's Polar Gold may lead to negative growth in global antimony supply by 2025 [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Antimony in Photovoltaic Glass**: Antimony is used in photovoltaic glass in small quantities, with a minimum addition of about 1.3‰ per ton of glass, indicating a stable demand even with zero growth in global installations [12]. - **Market Demand Decline**: In the second half of 2024, both domestic and foreign demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline significantly, with total demand dropping by 30%-40% [7]. - **Price Discrepancies**: There is a notable price difference between domestic and international photovoltaic glass, with domestic prices around 200,000 RMB per ton compared to 52,000 USD per ton internationally, indicating potential for increased exports [10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts recommend focusing on key players in the sector, such as Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold, which are expected to perform well due to their strategic positions and market conditions [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the antimony sector, emphasizing the bullish outlook and the factors influencing market dynamics.

Market Overview - On March 7, 2025, the A-share market showed a trend of oscillation and correction, with all three major indices closing lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 3372.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.5% to 10843.73 points, and the ChiNext Index experienced the largest drop, closing at 2205.31 points, indicating significant short-term adjustment pressure on technology growth stocks [1][2]. Market Factors - During the Two Sessions, there was a dense release of policy signals, but the market remains cautious regarding the implementation of specific details. Additionally, external disturbances such as a significant drop in U.S. tech stocks (Nasdaq down 2.61%) and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have led to a decrease in global risk appetite, putting pressure on the A-share technology sector [2]. Sector Analysis Strong Performing Sectors - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market, with companies like Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Zhuhai Group hitting the daily limit. The price of antimony products surged, with antimony prices reaching 183,000 yuan/ton on March 7, up approximately 28.87% from 142,000 yuan/ton in early February. This reflects strong demand growth for antimony products [3]. - The AI agent concept saw a boost from the release of the first general-purpose agent application "ManusAI," with stocks like Newcap and Dahua Technology hitting the daily limit. The market anticipates that AI technology is entering the engineering implementation phase, supported by increasing demand for computing power [3]. Weak Performing Sectors - The solid-state battery sector faced declines, with companies like Shanghai Xiba and Delong Co. dropping over 8%. The market is skeptical about the commercialization progress of the technology, leading funds to shift towards more certain cyclical and technology sectors [4]. - The real estate and financial sectors showed weak performance due to economic slowdown and policy regulation, reflecting market caution towards traditional industries [5]. Market Outlook - In the short term, caution is advised, with a focus on policy and performance verification. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has emphasized the need for value reassessment of central enterprises, and the central bank's liquidity easing stance may make undervalued blue-chip stocks a safe haven. The upcoming quarterly report season may pose risks for high-profile sectors like artificial intelligence, which could face performance verification pressure [6]. - In the medium to long term, three main lines of focus are suggested: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly AI, computing power, and robotics, which may see a new round of market activity if innovations like Manus AI continue to materialize [7]. 2. Consumer recovery and high-end manufacturing, with sectors like automotive parts and non-ferrous metals benefiting from domestic demand recovery and global supply chain restructuring [7]. 3. Policy-driven opportunities in areas such as information technology innovation, state-owned enterprise reform, and "China Special Valuation" themes, where undervalued central enterprises may experience valuation recovery [7].