Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate within a range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,200, up 630 from T - 1; the trading volume was 98,620, down 3,755 from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,680, down 10 from T - 1; the trading volume was 75,548, up 6,636 from T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 122,300, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 951, down 6 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 13,050, down 50 from T - 1 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff battle and may stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The production of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. There was market news on May 9 that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output. It cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic expectations are somewhat divided. The US manufacturing PMI has a revision expectation, but the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment expectation is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost support logic still exists, and the price may be corrected as the rumor about the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines is unconfirmed, but macro - disturbances need to be watched out for [3][11]. - On the fundamental side, last week, the rumor that the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines might be increased to 3.2 billion tons hit the previous strong cost - support expectation, and the nickel price hit a new low. After the rumor was unconfirmed, the main contract significantly reduced positions, pushing up the price. The supply of Indonesian laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the spot premium stays at a high level. The demand side has no incremental expectation, and the supply may remain high driven by export profits [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121100 | 122780 | - 1680 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15237 | 15594 | - 357 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 199380 | 198636 | 744 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22057 | 22250 | - 193 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Ore The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remains at $48.5 per wet ton, and that in Indonesia remains at $40.8 per wet ton. The rumor of increasing the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines has not been confirmed, and the short - term cost - support logic still applies [6]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 952 yuan per nickel point to 955 yuan per nickel point. In May, the expected output of Chinese ferronickel was about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The import volume of domestic ferronickel in April was about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The expected output of Indonesian ferronickel in May was 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of +16.9%/-0.47%. Domestic steel enterprises have production - control expectations, and stainless - steel production may be suppressed. In addition, some stainless - steel plants and ferronickel plants in Indonesia are expected to reduce production, and the traditional consumption area may be sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,015 yuan per ton to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan per ton. In May, the expected output of nickel sulfate in terms of metal was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of -20.51%/0.39%. In June, the output of ternary materials is expected to increase month - on - month, about 64,600 tons in total, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of +30.95%/+1.36%. The consumption increment in the new - energy field is not clear, and it is difficult to have an obvious driving force for price increase [8]. 3.2.4 Macro - level Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but was later postponed. The market generally believes that Trump's tariff policy will still show the characteristic of "starting high and ending low". The US core PCE in April was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure has eased, which may boost the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [3][9]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - level - Supply side: In May, domestic production capacity was stable, and smelter production scheduling declined. The expected output of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons. The export scale of domestic electrolytic nickel in April was about 17,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150.3%. As of May 30, the export profit of Chinese nickel was $53.99 per ton. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has a strong willingness to buy at low prices [9]. - Terminal consumption: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 53.5%. The consumption increment of new - energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to heavy - duty trucks and electric boats [10]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,057 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 193 tons, and the LME inventory is 199,380 tons, a month - on - month increase of 744 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 221,437 tons, a month - on - month increase of 551 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The 2.5 - billion - yuan lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou Dalong is expected to start trial production this year, with an estimated annual output value of 10 billion yuan after full operation [12]. - Guangxi Jinchuan Company has developed a new method for producing nickel sulfate [12]. - Trump postponed the decision on imposing a 50% tariff on the EU [12]. - The US International Trade Court initially blocked Trump's tariff measures, but the decision was postponed [12]. 3.4 Later Outlook The macro - economic expectations are divided, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost - support logic still exists. Since the rumor about the approval quota is unconfirmed, the price may have a small - scale rebound, but macro - disturbances need to be vigilant [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of nickel is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. The Indonesian nickel ore policy and smelting - end inventory performance may limit the downside elasticity, while the upside elasticity may be constrained by conversion economics and long - term surplus expectations [1]. - Stainless steel has weak marginal supply and demand, may oscillate at a low level in the short term, and has a slight chance of recovery in the medium term. The valuation of stainless steel still centers on cost, and cost support may underpin the bottom space [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Nickel Fundamentals - Indonesian high - grade nickel ore shortage drives up the cost of integrated pyrometallurgy. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore rises by $2 to $27 - 28 per wet ton, and the total price increases by 25% year - on - year to $53.6 per wet ton [1]. - Due to the impact of restocking demand, the short - term inventory accumulation at home and abroad under the expectation of refined nickel surplus is less than expected, and the inventory even shows a slight decline [1]. - The negative feedback of stainless steel exerts pressure on ferronickel, and ferronickel inventory starts to accumulate again. In mid - May, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,554.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 36% and 4% respectively [1][4]. - The conversion window from ferronickel to high - grade nickel matte has opened on the futures market, which may drag down the upper valuation of refined nickel [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Stainless steel has weak marginal supply and demand. The seasonal destocking speed of stainless steel is slower than in previous years under the previous high - production pattern. Although tariff relaxation may relieve some export pressure, there is no substantial change in the overall negative feedback stage [2]. - In May, the stainless steel production plan of Zhonglian Jin was 3.425 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 2% and 0% respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. Among them, the production plan of 300 - series stainless steel in May was 1.706 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 2% and 3% respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate has converged, especially for the 300 - series [2]. - The profit margin of stainless steel is difficult to expand significantly, and its valuation still centers on cost. After the price of ferronickel decreases, the futures steel price is still lower than the spot cost. If calculated at 950 yuan per nickel, the cash cost of stainless steel is about 13,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The contradiction in the ore end may limit the bottom space of ferronickel. In late May, the premium of nickel ore may rise by another $2 to $27 - 28 per wet ton, and the total price increases by 25% year - on - year to $53.6 per wet ton. According to the full - cost estimate of Indonesian ferronickel, Indonesian ferronickel may have suffered certain losses [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 763 tons to 42,928 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 75 tons to 23,501 tons, spot inventory decreased by 838 tons to 12,957 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,470 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,448 tons to 195,222 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May according to Yousewang was 29,554.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 36% and 4% respectively, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - The stainless steel social inventory was 1,108,250 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 675,382 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 432,868 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.17% [4]. - The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 97,200 wet tons to 7.0624 million wet tons. All the nickel ore was from the Philippines. By grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore was 3.4012 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 3.6612 million wet tons [6]. Market News - The Indonesian government has proposed relevant adjustment suggestions for non - tax national revenues. The resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel sulfide have been increased from 10%, 2%, 5%, and 2% to the floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively. The new nickel product royalty policy was officially signed by the Indonesian President on April 11 and implemented on April 26 [7]. - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford in Canada proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the United States in response to the US tariff threat [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% - grade ferronickel, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production. In March this year, the plant almost halted all production due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. As of now, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials, jointly held by GEM Co., Ltd., Tsingshan Holding Group, and Guangdong Brunp Recycling Technology Co., Ltd., has recovered to 70% - 80% [8]. - In February, the Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, which was in the deliberation stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in five years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government planned to implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start date are still to be verified [8]. - From May 10 to 11, high - level China - US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland. On May 12, the two sides issued a joint statement. The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods according to Executive Orders No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods according to Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. Correspondingly, China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs on US goods, suspend 24% of the 34% counter - tariffs on US reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, and retain the remaining 10%. China will also suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides a table of weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless steel, including closing prices, trading volumes, premiums, and other indicators of futures contracts and related products [11].

2025 年 5 月 12 日 警惕宏观扰动 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 镍价震荡延续 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，全球多国央行相继降息，美联储维持原有利 率政策不变。即使美国一季度GDP增速转负，美联储 官员依然认为美国经济具有韧性，但也承认劳动力市 场与再通胀面临一定挑战。此外，中美经贸论谈开 启，但双方在会谈前夕态度均较为强硬。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼矿产协会再次下调镍矿内贸基准价格， ...