Market Overview - The internet e-commerce sector increased by 0.27% on July 31, with Lionhead Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77, down 1.73% [1] Top Performers - Lionhead Co., Ltd. (600539) closed at 13.73, up 5.21% with a trading volume of 166,700 shares and a transaction value of 225 million [1] - Focus Technology (002315) closed at 53.62, up 5.10% with a trading volume of 188,300 shares and a transaction value of 1 billion [1] - Ruogang Chen (003010) closed at 51.45, up 4.04% with a trading volume of 112,700 shares and a transaction value of 569 million [1] Underperformers - ST Tongpu (600365) closed at 3.02, down 4.13% with a trading volume of 87,000 shares and a transaction value of 26.64 million [2] - Cross-Border Communication (002640) closed at 5.28, down 2.94% with a trading volume of 1,629,300 shares and a transaction value of 868 million [2] - New Xunda (300518) closed at 13.68, down 2.36% with a trading volume of 50,300 shares and a transaction value of 69.49 million [2] Capital Flow - The internet e-commerce sector saw a net inflow of 54.94 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 27.42 million [2][3] - Focus Technology (002315) had a net inflow of 70.51 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 55.89 million [3] - Lionhead Co., Ltd. (600539) experienced a net inflow of 2.22 million from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 26.10 million from retail investors [3]

浦银国际发布研报称，当前，本轮"反内卷"行情仍处在政策预期上升驱动的阶段，行情的持续性仍需观 察政策落地、产能出清、产能利用率提升、供需结构动态平衡和企业盈利改善等的情况。本轮"反内 卷"与供给侧改革仍存在较多不同之处，供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对 的大部分为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。预计本轮"反内卷"政策有望带动相关行业的供需 关系、企业盈利以及市场表现等多方面改善，那些处于供给出清前期的行业或具有更大的改善空间。 一是针对的行业范围不同。本轮"反内卷"涉及的行业更广泛，除了传统产业之外，还涵盖光伏、锂电、 新能源汽车、互联网电商等多个新兴产业，以中下游行业为主。 二是涉及行业中民企占比较大。供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对的大部分 为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。 三是本次采取的政策手段将更多元。由于"反内卷"相关行业独特性更强，明确量化目标、大范围采取行 政手段推动产能出清未必适用，采取的政策手段会因行业而异，落实难度不小。 四是两者的推进路径和侧重点不同。与供给侧改革核心在于化解过剩产能不同，本轮"反内卷"需要供需 两端协同发力， ...

Market Overview - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a decline of 0.78% on July 30, with Lionhead Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11203.03, down 0.77% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Ruoyuchen with a closing price of 49.45, up 2.13%, and Huakai Yibai at 11.49, up 0.97% [1] - Lionhead Co., Ltd. saw a significant decline of 5.43%, closing at 13.05, with a trading volume of 192,000 shares and a transaction value of 255 million [2] - Other stocks like Kuaijingtong and Saiwei Times also faced declines of 3.20% and 2.91% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a net outflow of 222 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 223 million [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed that Ruoyuchen had a net inflow of approximately 35.48 million from main funds, while Ji Hong Co. faced a net outflow of 35.25 million [3] - The overall trend indicates a shift in investor sentiment, with retail investors showing more interest compared to institutional investors [2][3]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong interest in new consumption trends, particularly in cosmetics and medical beauty sectors, with increased fund holdings in these areas [11][34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with social services and retail showing varied fund allocation changes [34] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, fund holdings in social services, retail, and beauty care sectors changed by -0.15pct, -0.76pct, and +0.08pct, reaching 1.11%, 1.87%, and 0.54% respectively [4][14] - Excluding Alibaba and Meituan, the fund holdings for social services and retail were 0.61% each [4][14] Sub-industry Performance - The cosmetics sector saw a significant increase of +0.08pct in fund holdings, while tourism retail II also increased by +0.029pct [9][17] - Other sectors like hotel and restaurant services, and general retail experienced declines in fund holdings [9][17] Northbound Capital Movement - In Q2 2025, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 6.264 billion yuan into the retail sector, while the beauty care and social services sectors experienced net outflows of 0.526 billion yuan and 0.818 billion yuan respectively [10][30] - Key companies with increased foreign capital allocation included Fengshang Culture and ShouLai Hotel [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing new industrial opportunities and capitalizing on product upcycles, recommending companies such as Laopu Gold, Maogeping, and Runben [11][34] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued retail/service companies with improving fundamentals [11][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading global cross-border payment service provider, uniquely holding the VATP license, and is expected to stand out in the wave of stablecoins disrupting the global cross-border payment landscape [1] - Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping the global cross-border payment system, driven by legislative advancements in the US and initiatives in China to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][3] Summary by Sections Exceeding Expectations - Stablecoins are transforming the global cross-border payment system at an unprecedented speed and scale [2] - In the US, the new leadership is accelerating stablecoin legislation, prompting various stakeholders to expedite their involvement in stablecoin initiatives [2] - China aims to enhance the international influence of the Renminbi, with stablecoin implementation in cross-border payments being a key strategy [2] - Globally, countries are adopting diverse approaches to advance stablecoin payment scenarios, particularly in developing regions [2] Catalysts - The potential acceleration of the US "Genius Act" could enhance the development of USD stablecoins [3] - The Hong Kong stablecoin legislation is set to be implemented on August 1, with the first licenses expected to be issued within the year [3] - The increasing scale of Real World Assets (RWA) in Greater China is anticipated to drive demand for stablecoins [3] - The company's market capitalization has significantly increased, meeting the threshold for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which may enhance its prospects [3] Price Performance Analysis - Since coverage began at the end of May, the company's stock price has increased by 77% [4] - The current stock price reflects only part of the expectations, as the stablecoin market is broad and lacks clear core beneficiaries [4] - The company may benefit from increased capital inflows if it enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect [4] - As the thematic market matures, focus will shift to fundamental performance and actual realization, concentrating funds on core beneficiaries [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Without considering the incremental contribution from stablecoins, the company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% from 2024 to 2027, with profit acceleration expected in 2026-2027 [5] - The current price corresponds to a PS ratio of 7.7x for this year and 5.7x for 2026, while global stablecoin-related companies are valued between 10-15x [5] - The target market capitalization is estimated at HK$23.6 billion, with a target price of HK$21.85, indicating a potential upside of 75.4% [11]

Group 1: Tencent Holdings - The core business continues to show growth resilience, with a focus on the release of AI ecosystem value. The expected revenue for Q2 2025 is 179.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11% [3] - The gaming segment is projected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 16% and 17% respectively [4] - The online advertising business is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in various sectors including video accounts and mini-programs [4] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is anticipated to grow by 6% year-on-year, with cloud business growth expected to exceed 20% [4] - The adjusted profit forecast for Tencent Holdings for 2025-2027 is 252.3 billion, 282.6 billion, and 314.4 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 610 HKD [5] Group 2: Aerospace and Energy Industry - The demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is surging due to increased orders driven by AI data centers, energy transition needs, and military demand [6] - Major players in the gas turbine market, such as Siemens Energy and GE Vernova, report record order backlogs and are expanding production capacity to meet demand [8][9] - The Chinese supply chain is expected to benefit from the demand surge in high-temperature alloys and components, with companies like Zhenhua Co., Longda Co., and others positioned to capitalize on this trend [7][15] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing significant order backlogs, with companies like Rolls-Royce and GE Aerospace reporting substantial increases in their order books [11][12] - The high-temperature alloy industry is rated positively, with expectations of increased demand for key metals like nickel and chromium due to the ongoing aerospace and gas turbine demand [16] Group 3: Alibaba Group - Alibaba is expected to achieve total revenue of 249 billion yuan for FY2026Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [18] - The Taotian Group is projected to see a GMV growth of 5.6% year-on-year, benefiting from national policies aimed at boosting consumption [19] - The international digital commerce segment is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performance across various platforms [20] - The cloud intelligence group is anticipated to grow by 22% year-on-year, with a focus on public cloud services and improving profitability [21] - The adjusted profit forecast for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 is 1,425 billion, 1,678 billion, and 1,940 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 119 RMB [22] Group 4: Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 260-280 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 719%-782% [24] - The significant improvement in performance is attributed to rising product prices and strong demand for key agricultural chemicals [25] - The company is actively investing in synthetic biology and AI-driven pesticide development, enhancing innovation and product efficiency [26] - The revenue forecast for the company for 2025-2027 is 4.875 billion, 5.250 billion, and 5.607 billion yuan respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [26]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Retail Industry - E-commerce Sector - Home Appliances Industry - Catering Industry - Gold and Jewelry Market - Light Industry and Home Furnishing Sector - Automotive Industry - Textile and Cosmetics Industry Core Points and Arguments Retail Industry Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, primarily due to the timing of e-commerce promotions which were moved to mid to late May, leading to a spike in May sales with a month-on-month growth of 11.5% compared to 8.4% in previous years [3][6] - Excluding seasonal factors, categories like home appliances and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, with home appliances growing at around 30% [3][6] Catering Sector Performance - June saw a significant decline in catering revenue, attributed to promotional activities reducing actual consumer spending rather than a decrease in demand [4][5] - The overall service retail sector showed improvement, with cumulative year-on-year growth rising from 5.2% to 5.3% [4] E-commerce and AI Development - Strong recommendation for the internet e-commerce sector, particularly with AI-driven advancements. NVIDIA's H20 card is expected to enhance computational power for AI applications in China [7] - Increased competition in instant retail is anticipated, with major platforms like Alibaba and Meituan being highlighted for investment [7] Gold and Jewelry Market Trends - Recent corrections in the gold and jewelry market are due to previously high expectations. However, the trend towards domestic gold jewelry remains strong, with brands that excel in craftsmanship and design expected to grow significantly [8] Light Industry and Home Furnishing Sector - The light industry and home furnishing sector benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, with June residential construction area declines narrowing and home furnishing retail sales showing strong growth [10] - The sector is viewed as having long-term investment value due to low valuations and structural opportunities in AI mattresses and design software [10] Home Appliances Industry Growth - The home appliances sector experienced a robust growth of 32.4% year-on-year in June, with total retail sales exceeding 140 billion yuan [11] - The "old-for-new" policy and the 618 promotion significantly boosted sales across various product categories, with air conditioners and kitchen appliances seeing substantial growth [11] New Consumer Categories in Home Appliances - New consumer categories, particularly cleaning appliances, are seeing increased market penetration. Companies like Ousheng Electric, Dechang, and Roborock are recommended for investment [12] Automotive Market Performance - The automotive market grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.1 million units, a nearly 30% increase [16] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with a 30% increase in sales, while luxury vehicle sales declined by 7% [16][17] Textile and Cosmetics Industry Overview - The textile and apparel sector grew by 1.9% in June, while cosmetics saw a decline of 2.3%. Notable growth in sportswear and specific brands like Haier and An Ta was observed [18] - Companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei are highlighted for their strong growth potential in the cosmetics sector [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The shift towards smaller, specialized retail formats is evident, with convenience stores and specialty shops outperforming larger formats, indicating a trend towards professionalization and miniaturization in consumer behavior [6] - The IP cultural tourism sector is also noted for its potential, especially with the upcoming peak travel season and active IP collaborations [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cross-border e-commerce industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Amazon Prime Day sales reached a record high of $24.1 billion in the U.S., representing a 30% year-on-year growth, exceeding the previous forecast of 28% [3][5] - The promotional period for Prime Day was extended from 2 days to 4 days, with overall discounts among U.S. retailers ranging from 11% to 24% [3][5] - Chinese sellers have capitalized on this opportunity by increasing investments in promoting new products and expanding brand influence, resulting in significant sales growth [3][5] - Emerging markets are expected to contribute additional growth, with Prime Day events planned for Brazil, Egypt, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE later in the summer [6][9] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Amazon's Prime Day in 2025 achieved sales of $24.1 billion, a 30.3% increase from the previous year, with sales and volume hitting historical highs [5] - A specific kitchenware company saw a 230% year-on-year increase in sales on the first day of Prime Day, while an outdoor apparel brand experienced a 140% year-on-year increase in sales volume [5] Market Opportunities - The overseas e-commerce market still has room for penetration, with strong consumer demand for quality Chinese products [4][9] - Cross-border brands are enhancing their product capabilities and diversifying regions to improve resilience against risks, benefiting from an optimized competitive landscape [4][9] Emerging Markets - The international business revenue for Amazon is projected to reach $142.9 billion in 2024, with a 9% year-on-year growth [7] - Chinese cross-border brands are actively expanding into emerging markets, with Anker Innovations increasing its revenue share from non-European and American markets from 26.84% in 2020 to 31.17% in 2023 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid growth of instant retail, with daily order volumes for Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Flash Sale reaching new highs, indicating a competitive landscape among major platforms [5][25] - The report emphasizes the shift in the instant retail industry from speed competition to comprehensive strength competition, driven by significant investments from major e-commerce platforms [26] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 2.20% during the week of July 7 to July 11, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.11 percentage points [7][14] - The internet e-commerce sector showed the largest increase among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly rise of 4.37% [17][20] Retail Insights: Instant Retail Competition - Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Flash Sale reported daily order volumes exceeding 80 million and 150 million, respectively, contributing significantly to market growth [5][25] - Major platforms are implementing substantial subsidy programs to support merchant transformations, indicating a trend towards a three-way competitive landscape [26] Focus on High-Growth Quality Companies - Investment themes include: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [8][29] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasizing companies that adapt to trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [8][29] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting domestic brands with strong differentiation, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [8][29] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focusing on companies with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [8][29] Company-Specific Insights - **Zhou Dafu**: FY2025 revenue of 89.66 billion HKD (-17.5%), net profit of 5.916 billion HKD (-9.0%), focusing on product structure optimization [31][36] - **Laopuhuangjin**: FY2024 revenue of 8.506 billion CNY (+167.5%), net profit of 1.473 billion CNY (+253.9%), benefiting from brand expansion [31][36] - **Chaohongji**: 2025Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion CNY (+25.4%), net profit of 189 million CNY (+44.4%), driven by differentiated product offerings [31][39] - **Mao Ge Ping**: FY2024 revenue of 3.885 billion CNY (+34.6%), net profit of 881 million CNY (+33.0%), focusing on high-end cosmetics [31][39] - **Polaya**: FY2024 revenue of 10.778 billion CNY (+21.0%), net profit of 1.552 billion CNY (+30.0%), maintaining a strong position in the domestic market [31][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [1][13][25] Core Views - JD's core retail business continues to show growth, with a strong focus on food delivery to synergize with its main operations [6][13] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 335.7 billion in FY2Q25, representing a 15.2% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit forecast of RMB 4.32 billion [7][8] - JD is expanding its overseas business in Europe, launching the Joybuy brand in London and enhancing its logistics capabilities [12][13] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084,662 million - 2024: RMB 1,158,819 million - 2025E: RMB 1,309,433 million (13.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 1,420,217 million (8.5% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 1,493,471 million (5.2% YoY growth) [5][16] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates: - 2025E: RMB 23,538 million - 2026E: RMB 42,638 million - 2027E: RMB 55,403 million [5][16] - The report anticipates JD's retail revenue to grow 14.7% YoY to RMB 294.9 billion in FY2Q25 [8][9] Business Expansion and Strategy - JD's food delivery service has seen a peak of over 25 million daily orders, with a focus on high-frequency consumption scenarios [9][11] - The company is investing in on-demand retail and exploring new business areas such as travel and hospitality [11][13] - JD's market share in the premium food delivery segment is 45%, indicating strong competitive positioning [9][12]