Core Viewpoint - The European Union has made a significant concession by implementing zero tariffs and a quota system for Indonesian palm oil, potentially allowing Indonesia to capture a larger share of the European market [1] Group 1: EU Policy Changes - The EU's decision to adopt zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the European market [1] - The introduction of a quota system will regulate the volume of palm oil imports, which may lead to increased market access for Indonesian producers [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The changes in EU policy could result in a shift in market dynamics, with Indonesian palm oil potentially displacing other suppliers in Europe [1] - This development may encourage Indonesian producers to increase their production capacity to meet the anticipated demand from the European market [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oils and fats is that prices may correct from high levels, and investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, after the correction, selling put options or buying call options can be considered [10][11][12] Summary by Section 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 8166, up 92; palm oil 2509 was 9104, up 110; and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9492, up 36. The basis for different regions and varieties showed various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 52, up 8; for palm oil it was 44, up 24; and for rapeseed oil it was 53, unchanged [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 938, down 18; the OI - Y spread was 1326; the OI - P spread was 388, down 74; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70, up 0.09 [3] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 114, and CNF price was 1065. The FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil was 1043, with a盘面 profit of - 895 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 59.1 million tons (compared to 56.3 million tons last week and 109.2 million tons last year); palm oil inventory was 50.7 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons (compared to 70.6 million tons last week and 42.9 million tons last year) [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, the same as last month's forecast and higher than last year's 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA also predicted the 2025/26 US soybean production at 4.335 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast and last year's production [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: On July 24, 2025, palm oil futures prices rose more than 1%. As of July 18, 2025 (the 29th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a rumor of one ship purchase. The spot market was stable, and investors can consider buying on dips due to the potential for inventory build - up and the positive macro - environment [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: On July 24, 2025, soybean oil futures prices rose more than 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2305500 tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. As of July 18, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1091800 tons, a 4.04% increase from last week and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. The basis was stable. With a large arrival of soybeans and high crushing volume, soybean oil is in a phase of inventory build - up, but it is still showing a strong upward trend driven by the overall oil and fat market. Investors can consider buying on dips without over - chasing the high [6][8] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: On July 24, 2025, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59000 tons, and the operating rate was 15.72%. As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week, still at a historical high but with a continuous marginal reduction. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around $1020, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 600. The spot market was quiet, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Due to more policy disturbances, the single - side price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8] 3. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct from high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] - **Options**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads over different time periods from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 23 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2509收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8074 | (2) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8224 | | | | 8254 | 8194 | | 180 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 120 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8994 | 68 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9034 | | | | 90 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month-on-month to 2.9 million tons in May, driven by a surge in exports [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production - Indonesia's palm oil inventory stood at 2.9 million tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.27% [1] - The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, which is lower than April's production of 4.48 million tons but represents a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Palm oil and refined product exports from Indonesia reached 2.66 million tons in May, marking a nearly 50% increase compared to April and a year-on-year growth of 35.64% [1] - The increase in exports was primarily driven by rising demand from India and China [1]

Variety Views - On July 22, A-share's three major indexes continued to rise, hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3,581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 11,099.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% to 2,310.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,118.96, up 33.35 [1] - On July 22, the weighted coke index remained strong, closing at 1,711.6, up 128.3. The weighted coking coal index also maintained its strength, closing at 1,084.9 yuan, up 94.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. After the first price increase by coke enterprises was implemented, they quickly initiated a second one. Coke enterprises are currently at the break-even point in production. The continuous rebound of coking coal prices has put pressure on coking enterprises, so they raised the price of coke, and steel mills have a relatively high willingness to accept it. The profitability rate of steel mills is maintained at around 60%, the profit of blast furnace rebar is about 200 yuan/ton, and the reduction of crude steel production has led to a rebound in steel prices, giving some room for the rebound of raw material prices [3] - The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi (A10, S0.45, G70) was raised by 70 yuan to the ex-factory price of 1,210 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is running strongly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port increased by 54 to 850 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal increased by 35 to 950 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the inventory of upstream coal mines has dropped to 3.3907 million tons, returning to a relatively reasonable level. Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, especially after the price increase, the enthusiasm of coal mines for production is high [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate that the global sugar market may face a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season due to strong monsoons increasing production in India and Thailand. Affected by this and the failure of the futures price to break through the key technical level of 17 cents, long positions were liquidated, causing the US sugar price to fall sharply on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long positions were liquidated, causing the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to decline on Tuesday. Due to short-selling pressure, the contract continued to decline slightly at night. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a month-on-month increase of about 70,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,434.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In June 2025, China imported a total of 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,400 tons [3] Rubber - Heavy rainfall in the Thai rubber-producing area has raised concerns about supply, leading to continuous increases in Southeast Asian spot prices. Affected by this, short positions were liquidated, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on Tuesday. Due to the large short-term increase, the price adjusted at night. In June 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. From January to June, the production increased by 2% year-on-year to 591.668 million pieces. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4][6] Palm Oil - On July 22, palm oil maintained a high-level wide-range oscillation, with the overall average price gradually increasing. The K-line closed as a positive line with a long upper shadow. The highest price of the day was 9,012, the lowest was 8,868, and it closed at 8,926, up 0.18% from the previous day. According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 to 20, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.19% compared with the same period last month. United Plantations said that in the second quarter, the production of palm oil and palm kernels increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year-on-year respectively; the average price of palm oil increased by 5.6% to 4,361 Malaysian ringgit per ton [6] Shanghai Copper - The anti-involution trading in China continued, with strong long sentiment boosting the copper price. Technically, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD and KDJ indicators all give bullish signals, providing support for price increases. On the supply side, the strike at a copper mine in Peru has raised concerns about supply, which also supports the copper price. However, attention should be paid to the increase in bonded warehouse inventories and the uncertainty of downstream demand. If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 81,200 yuan/ton, it may face a correction risk [7] Iron Ore - On July 22, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 2.49%, closing at 823 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrivals dropped significantly. The pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level again. Currently, the market sentiment is boosted by the anti-involution and the policy expectations of important meetings, and the short-term trend of iron ore prices will continue to oscillate slightly stronger [7] Asphalt - On July 22, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.42%, closing at 3,609 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased month-on-month. The low social inventory has led to an increase in the sales volume of refineries, and downstream demand has improved. Overall, it fluctuates narrowly following the cost of crude oil [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,235 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. On July 23, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 65 lots compared with the previous day. The growth period of cotton in Xinjiang this year is about 5 - 7 days earlier than last year [8] Logs - On July 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 843.5, with a minimum of 835, a maximum of 846.5, and closed at 838, with a daily reduction of 2,264 lots. After reaching a four-month high of 856.5, the market declined, with increased trading volume and significant position reduction, increasing market pressure. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and the support of macro expectations for the spot market [8] Steel - On July 22, rb2510 closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,477 yuan/ton. Currently, the favorable factors in the industrial aspect of "anti-involution" and "promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" are being traded again in the market. The trading logic of the black chain has switched to the dual-drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, coupled with the support of real estate policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Attention should be paid to the matching degree between the marginal change of pig iron production and the implementation rhythm of policies [9] Alumina - On July 22, ao2509 closed at 3,513 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment in the market mainly comes from three aspects: the continuous fermentation of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, the limited supply of spot goods in the market, and the extremely low inventory in delivery warehouses; and the strong support from the demand side due to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In terms of trading, although the inquiries from spot-futures traders for hedging purposes are active, due to the tight supply of spot goods and the quotes of holders not meeting the expectations of buyers, actual transactions are limited. Most holders choose to postpone sales and adopt a wait-and-see attitude [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 22, al2509 closed at 20,900 yuan/ton. In China, a new plan for stabilizing the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry is about to be released, providing support for copper and aluminum. The world's largest hydropower project has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. During the off-season of consumption, the amount of ingot casting has increased, and the recent arrival of spot goods in the market has increased, replenishing market supply. The increase in aluminum prices has significantly suppressed consumption, highlighting the weakness of actual terminal demand, and there is still pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Short-term, it is expected that the prices of edible oils will experience a high-level correction. Investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, after the correction, investors can consider selling put options or buying call options [12][13][14] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2509 contract were 8076, 8926, and 9477 respectively. The price of soybean oil decreased by 16, palm oil increased by 16, and rapeseed oil decreased by 86. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 48, 24, and 66 respectively. The changes were +4, -28, and -5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was -850 with a change of -32, the OI - Y spread was 1401, and the OI - P spread was 551 with a change of -102. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62 with a change of -0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The on - paper profit for 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -74, and for Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil, it was -654 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 59.1, 50.7, and 69.5 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventory changes varied [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease from the same period last month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to correct in the near future, and investors can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 109.18 million tons, a 4.04% increase from last week. With a large amount of soybeans arriving in the country and high crushing volume, it may experience a high - level correction in the short term and maintain a volatile trend. Investors can consider buying on dips [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market is sluggish, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, expect edible oils to correct at high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [12] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13] - **Options Strategy**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different edible oils over the years, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares continue to feature sector rotation with multiple hotspots, and the index is rising. It remains in a pattern where it is easier to rise than to fall, awaiting more macro positive signals [3][13]. - The latest US retail data for June showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase, exceeding expectations, indicating the continued resilience of the US economy. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][17]. - The bond market has limited upside potential and is expected to remain volatile recently, with potential for a rebound after the Politburo meeting in July [2][22]. - The five major steel products continued a slight destocking trend this week. The destocking of coils accelerated slightly, while the seasonal weakness of rebar was more obvious. However, the fundamental pressure is not significant, and the short-term steel prices are still supported [4][39]. - The oil market strengthened further due to frequent positive news [5][31]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term due to the off-season demand not being weak, uncertainties in the mining end, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts [6][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The threshold for the consumption tax on ultra-luxury cars has been lowered, and new energy models are included in the scope of collection. The policy will be implemented from July 20, 2025 [12]. - The youth unemployment rate excluding students dropped to 14.5% in June. A-shares continue to rotate among themes, and the index is rising. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Kevin Warsh called for a comprehensive reform of the central bank's current policy framework and proposed establishing a policy cooperation mechanism with the Treasury [15]. - Mary Daly believes that it is reasonable for policymakers to plan two interest rate cuts this year and that the Fed should not wait too long to act [16]. - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, indicating the continued resilience of the US economy. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in July has further decreased, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that interest rates should remain unchanged for some time as tariffs push up inflation [19]. - Kevin Warsh called for a complete reform of the Fed and criticized the current leadership. The better-than-expected US retail sales data and the decline in unemployment claims indicate the continued resilience of the US economy. However, there is a risk of a reversal in the optimistic expectation of a soft landing, and it is recommended to control positions carefully [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan. The bond market has limited upside potential and is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to sell positions when the futures rebound to the previous high and continue to allocate medium-term long positions on dips [22][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is oscillating strongly. The first round of coke price increases has basically been implemented. The rise in the coking coal futures is supported by factors such as the unexpected increase in hot metal production and the slow resumption of coal mines. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ABIOVE raised its export forecast for Brazilian soybeans in the 24/25 season. The USDA weekly export sales report was in line with expectations. The US soybean futures continued to rise, while the domestic soybean meal supply and demand remained weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the development of Sino-US relations [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. Malaysia has raised the export tariff for crude palm oil in August to 9%. The Indonesian plantation fund is expected to have sufficient income to fund the biodiesel quota plan. The oil market strengthened further. It is not recommended to short, and it is advisable to wait for signs of a weakening in the commodity market sentiment before considering long positions [28][31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start-up rate in North China has recovered, while that in Northeast China has declined. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The theoretical loss of starch enterprises has widened, and the CS09 - C09 spread has remained weakly volatile. The future of the CS - C spread is highly uncertain [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of corn processing enterprises has decreased, and the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has also declined. It is recommended to consider entering short positions on new crops in advance and continue to monitor the import auction and inventory situation [35][36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In June, China's rebar production decreased year - on - year, while the production of medium - thick wide steel strips increased. The five major steel products continued to destock slightly this week. The short - term steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, but the driving force for continuous recovery is limited. It is recommended to hedge on the spot side when prices rebound [37][39][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Luoniu Mountain plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares. The spot price has been oscillating weakly recently. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [41][42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern ports has been rising moderately this week. High temperatures have supported the daily consumption, and the overall coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [43]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China National Steel & Equipment Corporation has reached an agreement with Azerbaijan to start a 187 - million - ton iron ore development project. The iron ore price is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead price has continued to fall, but the overall consumption is still recovering. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term buying opportunities on dips and consider internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places has increased. The zinc price has oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of black commodities. It is recommended to consider short - term light - position short - selling opportunities on rebounds and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities in the spread [50][55]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Potash has been ordered to stop lithium resource development and utilization activities. The lithium carbonate contract has risen rapidly. The supply side is uncertain, and it is recommended to consider short - term long positions on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's refined copper production in June increased year - on - year. The short - term macro factors have a slightly positive impact on the copper price. The copper price is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association has proposed to revise the HPM formula. The nickel price is expected to be range - bound in the short term and is likely to decline in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [56][58]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on July 17 was 72.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day. The CEA price is expected to be volatile in the short term [59][60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The caustic soda market is expected to have limited room for further increase [61][63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has mostly remained stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upside potential [63][64]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market has been range - bound. The PVC price is expected to have limited upside potential [65]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly start - up rate of styrene has decreased. The styrene price is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the near - end profit still has room to decline. It is recommended to wait for a further decline in BZN before considering long - term allocation [66][68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased by 46 Bcf week - on - week. The Nymex natural gas price is expected to be volatile in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories are mostly stable, with some slightly increasing. The bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips [71][74]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area has been weakly stable. The soda ash price is expected to remain under pressure in the medium term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [75]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has remained stable. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [76][77].