Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a slight decline in China's crude oil processing volume in April 2025, indicating a potential trend in the industry [1]. Industry Summary - In April 2025, China's crude oil processing volume was 58.03 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative crude oil processing volume reached 240.268 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 0.8% [1]. Company Summary - The report mentions several listed companies in the oil sector, including Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Sinopec, PetroChina, Shanghai Petrochemical, Huajin Co., Taishan Petroleum, Yueyang Xingchang, ST Shihua, and Shenyang Chemical [1].

Core Viewpoint - Taishan Petroleum (000554) announced a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters, projecting a net profit of 100 million to 120 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 87% to 125% [1] Financial Performance - The stock closed at 6.80 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a turnover rate of 4.14%, resulting in a transaction volume of 102 million yuan [1] - Over the past five days, the stock has increased by 1.64% [1] - A statistical analysis of stocks with a profit forecast increase of over 50% shows that 77.78% experienced a price increase on the announcement day, with 8 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - In the five days following the announcement, 80.56% of these stocks saw price increases [1] Capital Flow - The stock experienced a net outflow of 7.76 million yuan in principal funds today, with a total net outflow of 35.67 million yuan over the past five days [1] - As of October 13, the margin balance was 308 million yuan, with a financing balance of 308 million yuan, reflecting a 1.20% increase from the previous trading day, although the financing balance has decreased by 4.88% over the past five days [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - During the period from September 29 to October 10, all indices except the chemical and pharmaceutical index increased, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 4.21% and the agricultural chemicals index increasing by 7.43% [1] - The chemical machinery index saw a rise of 2.53%, while the chemical pharmaceutical index experienced a decline of 0.60% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 1.17%, the oil extraction index rose by 1.93%, and the oil trading index went up by 3.01% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - As of October 10, the settlement price for WTI crude oil was $58.9 per barrel, a decrease of 3.25% from October 3, while Brent crude oil settled at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included liquid chlorine, which increased by 25.35%, isopropanol by 4.50%, and coke by 3.60% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products were propane, which fell by 7.76%, vitamin E by 5.68%, and calcium pantothenate by 5.26% [1] Group 3: Listed Chemical Companies - The top five listed chemical companies by stock price increase were Chengxing Co., up 21.12%, Yueyang Xingchang, up 20.97%, and Henghe Precision, up 15.36% [2] - Other notable increases included Yake Technology, which rose by 15.17%, and Baiao Chemical, which increased by 12.70% [2] - The top five listed chemical companies by stock price decrease included Bluefeng Biochemical, down 19.04%, and Yayun Co., down 13.23% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the trends in China's fuel oil industry, indicating a slight increase in production in April 2025, while showing a cumulative decline in production for the first four months of the year [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In April 2025, China's fuel oil production reached 356,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of fuel oil in China was 1,440,800 tons, reflecting a cumulative decrease of 6.9% compared to the same period in the previous year [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the fuel oil sector include Sinopec (600028), PetroChina (601857), Shanghai Petrochemical (600688), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), and others [1] - The report suggests that these companies may face varying impacts due to the production trends and market conditions in the fuel oil industry [1] Group 3: Research and Insights - The report is part of a comprehensive market research initiative by Zhiyan Consulting, which specializes in industry research and provides various consulting services [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has been active in the industry research field for over a decade, offering in-depth reports and tailored services to support investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from October 13, 2023, with gasoline prices decreasing by 75 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 70 yuan per ton [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The average price adjustments for gasoline and diesel are as follows: 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel have all been reduced by 0.06 yuan per liter [3][4]. - For a 50-liter tank of 92 gasoline, consumers will save 3 yuan with the new pricing [3]. Group 2: Market Regulation - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are required to ensure stable supply and adhere to national pricing policies [1]. - Local authorities are tasked with increasing market supervision and strictly enforcing compliance with national pricing regulations to maintain market order [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices in China, effective from October 13, 2025, where gasoline and diesel prices are reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively [2] - The adjustment is based on the average price comparison of the first ten working days before the price change, indicating a response to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are instructed to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [2] Group 2 - The maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel in various provinces and municipalities are provided, with specific prices listed for each region [3] - Regions with a unified pricing system have specific price points, while areas without such a system have different pricing structures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices, effective from October 13 at 24:00 [1]. Group 1: Price Changes - Domestic gasoline price will decrease by 75 yuan per ton, while diesel price will decrease by 70 yuan per ton [1]. - After the implementation of the price reduction, filling a 50L tank with 92 gasoline will cost approximately 3 yuan less than before [4]. Group 2: Market Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission has instructed major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [4]. - Local authorities are required to enhance market supervision and strictly penalize any violations of national pricing policies to maintain normal market order [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the short - term price of asphalt futures will continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner, with the international oil price under pressure and acting as the main driving force for asphalt futures, and the price center fluctuating with crude oil [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) fluctuated downward from October 9th to 10th, with an interval decline of 2.12% and an interval amplitude of 2.44% [9]. - Relevant data on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference are presented, but specific data trends are not described in detail [13][17][21]. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong refineries is - 471.49 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei refineries is - 413.44 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction) [27]. - **Price Difference**: On October 10th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the SC*6.6 main contract was 279.46 yuan/ton, up 21.48 yuan/ton from September 30th. On October 9th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 184.34 yuan/ton, up 2.36 yuan/ton from September 30th [31][34]. - **Production**: The operating rate of China's heavy - traffic asphalt was 40.1%, a week - on - week increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The weekly output was 70.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.49% and a year - on - year increase of 44.24%. The weekly operating rate of Shandong asphalt was 51.7%, a week - on - week increase of 15.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The weekly output was 26.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.74% and a year - on - year increase of 61.98% [38][40][43][46]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a week - on - week decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [50]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%. The weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 75.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.90%. In Shandong, the in - plant inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64% [53][56]. - **Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days in China are provided, with heavy rainfall in many regions [60]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The supply shows a significant recovery. After the holiday, as major refineries resume production, the national asphalt operating rate is expected to continue to rise, and the market supply will be loose [68]. - **Demand**: The demand is differentiated. The demand in the northern market is currently supported by road project rush - work but is expected to weaken with the temperature drop. The demand in the southern market is stable due to project start - up and payment issues [68]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory shows a short - term destocking trend, while the in - plant inventory increases [68]. - **Cost**: Weak economic data and seasonal off - season suppress the demand for US crude oil and gasoline, increasing the pressure on oil inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on international oil prices [69]. - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner and breaks through the oscillation range formed since late August [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the report. It mainly provides data on asphalt futures and spot markets, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, basis, and spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - BU main contract price decreased from 3463 on 9/11 to 3328 on 10/10, with a daily change of -47 and an interval change of -112 [4][12][20]. - BU10 price increased by 9 from 10/9 to 10/10, but decreased by -20 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Other contracts (BU11, BU12, BU01, BU03) also showed price changes, with varying degrees of decline [4][12][20]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume increased from 216059 on 10/9 to 323321 on 10/10, with a daily increase of 107262 and an interval increase of 47323 [4][12][20]. - Open interest increased by 2486 from 10/9 to 10/10, but decreased by -71983 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. Spot Market Prices - Shandong market price decreased by -10 from 9/11 to 10/10, remaining at 3490 on 10/10 [4][12][20]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3560 from 9/25 to 10/10 [4][12][20]. - South China market price decreased by -20 from 9/11 to 10/10, remaining at 3480 on 10/10 [4][12][20]. - North China market price decreased by -30 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -100 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Northeast market price decreased by -10 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -30 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. Basis and Spread - Shandong basis increased by 17 from 10/9 to 10/10 and 42 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - East China basis decreased by -33 from 10/9 to 10/10 but increased by 92 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - South China basis increased by 7 from 10/9 to 10/10 and 52 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - 10 - 11 spread increased by 92 from 9/11 to 10/10 [4][12][20]. - 10 - 12 spread increased by 89 from 9/11 to 10/10 [4][12][20]. Crack Spread and Profit - Asphalt Brent crack spread increased by 51 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -42 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Asphalt Marru profit increased by 46 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -38 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Ordinary refinery comprehensive profit increased by 36 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -88 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Marru - type refinery comprehensive profit increased by 39 from 10/9 to 10/10 but decreased by -25 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Import profit (South Korea - East China) decreased by -2 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -49 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Import profit (Singapore - South China) decreased by -3 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -13 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. Related Prices - Brent crude oil price decreased by -1.0 from 10/9 to 10/10 but increased by 0.7 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Shandong gasoline market price decreased by -25 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -84 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Shandong diesel market price decreased by -35 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -141 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20]. - Shandong residue market price decreased by -100 from 10/9 to 10/10 and -90 compared to 9/11 [4][12][20].