自由现金流这个概念最近非常热门，它是指企业在支付了所有必要的经营费用和资本支出后，剩余的可 用于分配给股东和债权人的现金。 作为衡量企业财务健康状况的关键指标之一，自由现金流的核心优势在于穿透会计迷雾，反映企业真实 盈利能力，并为投资决策提供前瞻性指引。聚焦自由现金流充裕的企业既能规避价值陷阱，又能分享长 期增长红利。是衡量企业真实盈利能力和财务健康的"黄金指标"。 （一）价值的终极源泉 持续经营能力的基石 相比于传统会计统计下的净利润指标，自由现金流至少在四个方面具备显著优势： （二）行业配置自带哑铃策略 中证自由现金流的编制规则，对于成分股筛选有着严苛的标准。 首先，排除金融和地产行业——前者依赖资金周转以及存款并非计入经营现金流，后者受业务模式和政 策影响现金流波动大，难以用统一标准衡量。 其次，连续5年经营活动现金流为正，确保盈利稳定性；盈利质量由高到低排名前80%，即经营现金流 与营业利润匹配度高，避免 "赚利润不赚现金" 的情况。 最终，按自由现金流率（自由现金流/企业价值，且自由现金流和企业价值均为正）从高到低选出 100 只股票，构建自由现金流率集中的高性价比，高现金含量的股票组合。 根据以上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on "Boosting Consumption and Serving People's Good Life," aiming to transform work styles, conduct in-depth research, and promote high-quality development in the light industry sector. Group 1: Light Industry Development - The China Light Industry Federation emphasizes the need for in-depth industry research to understand new market demands and trends, aiming to innovate and cultivate consumption growth points [1][2] - The China Sewing Machinery Association plans to implement seven major initiatives in 2024 to promote high-quality development, including policy advocacy, skill training, and international market expansion [1] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association is actively promoting the "old for new" appliance replacement program, leveraging the AWE exhibition to stimulate consumer demand [3] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The China Toy and Juvenile Products Association is addressing industry challenges such as tariffs and standards, advocating for the inclusion of certain products in the "old for new" policy [5][6] - The China Sugar Association is focusing on technological empowerment and sustainable practices, with a projected sugar production increase to 11 million tons in the 2024/25 period [7][8] - The China Food Additives and Ingredients Association reported a stable growth in the food additives sector, with a production increase of 3.5% and sales growth of 2.0% in 2024 [9][10] Group 3: Consumer Trends and Innovations - The China Beverage Association reported a record beverage production of 188 million tons in 2024, with a focus on enhancing consumer experience and expanding market reach [15][16] - The China Biochemical Fermentation Industry Association is implementing six practical measures to support industry growth, emphasizing technology and safety [17][18] - The China Industrial Design Association is promoting design innovation to enhance product value and stimulate consumer demand [22][23] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The China Musical Instruments Association identified trends such as the rise of electronic instruments and a growing interest in music among middle-class consumers [28][29] - The China Bicycle Association noted a stable production environment with a significant increase in electric bicycle sales due to the "old for new" policy [30][31]

截至4月30日，市场融资余额合计1.78万亿元，较前一交易日减少156.33亿元，其中，沪市融资余额 9022.97亿元，较前一交易日减少81.79亿元；深市融资余额8683.58亿元，较前一交易日减少72.87亿元； 北交所融资余额50.37亿元，较前一交易日减少1.68亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，4月30日共有1130只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元以 上的有203只，其中26只融资净买入额超5000万元。江淮汽车融资净买入额居首，当日净买入2.46亿 元，其次是招商银行、华夏银行，融资净买入金额分别为2.09亿元、1.83亿元，融资净买入金额居前的 还有博创科技、利欧股份、闽东电力等。 分行业统计，获融资客净买入超5000万元个股中，汽车、电力设备、银行等行业最为集中，分别有6 只、4只、3只个股上榜。板块分布上，大手笔净买入个股中，主板有20只，创业板有3只，科创板有3 只。 融资客大手笔净买入个股中，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术平均值为4.34%，融资余额占比 最高的是优刻得，该股最新融资余额8.53亿元，占流通市值的比例为9.44%，融资余额占比较高的还有 祥鑫科技、 ...

上交所融资余额报9022.97亿元，较前一交易日减少81.79亿元；深交所融资余额报8683.58亿元，较前一 交易日减少72.87亿元；两市合计17706.55亿元，较前一交易日减少154.65亿元，融资交易额2112.17亿 元，占A股成交额18.06%，其中融资买入额978.76亿元，融资偿还额1133.41亿元，交易活跃度上升 20.61%。 融资最新持仓情况 e公司数据统计显示，截至4月30日，融资持仓市值前五行业为电子、非银金融、计算机、医药生物、机 械设备，占持仓总市值51.75%。 持仓市值较20个交易日前增加幅度前2的行业为农林牧渔、综合，增加幅度分别为4.94%、0.15%。 持仓市值较20个交易日前减少幅度前3的行业为通信、传媒、家用电器，减少幅度分别为14.1%、 12.51%、10.06%。 行业流向 个股明细 从连续买卖来看，黑猫股份（002068）、汉得信息（300170）、常山药业（300255）获融资连续净买入 天数居前，分别为9天、8天、8天，期间净买入额分别为1.16亿元、2.33亿元、0.36亿元，期间增持幅度 分别为47.21%、19.64%、2.88%。 玉龙股份（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home, with a projected P/E ratio of 11/10/9X for the upcoming years [9]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by domestic subsidies and resilient contributions from emerging markets, alongside the effectiveness of digital transformation in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [6][8]. - Revenue for Q1 reached 79.118 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.487 billion yuan, up 15.09% year-on-year [8]. Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales supported by national subsidies and flexible contributions from emerging markets, with Q1 domestic and foreign sales growing by 7.8% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively [8]. - Emerging markets showed significant growth, with North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia experiencing year-on-year growth rates of approximately 0%, +30%, +50%, +30%, and +20%, respectively [8]. - The Casarte brand continued to perform well, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in Q1 [8]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q1 was 25.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.93%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements were attributed to supply chain optimization and digital transformation, leading to better gross and expense ratios [8]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting revenues of 304.093 billion yuan, 316.502 billion yuan, and 327.129 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.3%, 4.1%, and 3.4% [8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 21.254 billion yuan, 23.346 billion yuan, and 24.804 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, 9.8%, and 6.2% [8]. Shareholding Plan - The company announced a shareholding plan for 2025, targeting a scale of 757 million yuan, aimed at certain directors, senior management, and core technical personnel, with performance targets set for ROE exceeding 17.7% for 2025-2026 [8].

Global Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by divergence, with the US showing moderate growth supported by consumer spending, while investment lags behind [1] - Japan's economy is experiencing mild growth with balanced contributions across sectors [1] - Emerging markets like China are growing at their own pace, with consumption, investment, and net exports contributing positively, although the real estate sector is facing adjustments [1] - India is showing strong economic growth momentum [1] - Global inflation levels vary, with some countries facing significant inflationary pressures, while China is experiencing deflationary signs [1] - Supply chain pressures have eased globally, leading to a decrease in freight costs [1] Stock Market Performance - Global stock market returns vary significantly by region, with some Asian markets like Taiwan and China performing exceptionally well over the past decade [2] - Different markets exhibit unique characteristics in terms of earnings expectations, valuations, and dividend performance [2] - The technology sector is gaining attention, particularly with high earnings growth expectations for Chinese tech companies and significant growth in India's telecommunications services sector [2] - The US stock market is noted for its high concentration, with the top ten companies having a substantial impact on the index [2] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The global fixed income market shows complex dynamics, with varying returns across different bond categories [3] - Emerging market local currency bonds and Asian high-yield bonds have performed well during certain periods [3] - The yield, duration, and interest rate sensitivity of bonds differ, affecting market returns [3] - The spread changes between investment-grade and high-yield bonds influence market performance [3] - Emerging market bonds exhibit volatility in spreads and returns compared to US Treasuries, while the Asian fixed income market has its own trends [3] Other Asset Classes - The US dollar's exchange rate is related to interest rate differentials, and commodity prices are subject to fluctuations [4] - Gold prices are influenced by real interest rates, while oil prices are affected by supply and demand dynamics [4] - Alternative asset classes show varying returns and volatility, with different correlations to traditional assets, which can help in risk diversification within investment portfolios [4]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 家用电器 证券研究报告 产业在线出货&排产数据点评——25W18 周度研究 周度研究聚焦：产业在线出货&排产数据点评——Q1 空冰洗内销稳定增 长，空调 Q2 内销或保持上涨趋势 空调：内销方面，Q1 出货稳定增长，结合排产 Q2 或保持上涨趋势。据产 业在线，空调 1 月/2 月/3 月内销量分 别 721/736/1278 万台（yoy- 2%/+21%/+3%），Q1 内销累计达 2735 万台，同比增长 6.2%，出货稳定增 长。根据产业在线排产报告预测数据，25 年 4 月/5 月/6 月/7 月家用空调内 销排产 1320/1437/1361/1265 万台（yoy+9%/+15%/+29%/+37%），随着内销 旺季市场的临近及出口市场蓄力不足，内销开始掌握大盘主动权，强势发 力。外销方面，Q1 增速好于内销，Q2 出口迎来季节性淡季。据产业在 线，空调 1 月 /2 月 /3 月 外 销 量 分 别 1052/943/1157 万 台 （yoy+17%/+51%/+15%），Q1 外销累计达 3152 万台，同比增长 24.5%，增 速好于内销。根据产业在线排产报告 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 19.65 yuan and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that national subsidies have driven industry growth, and the company has achieved a record high dividend payout ratio of 59.7% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11,212.65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,577.40 million yuan, a decline of 8.97% year-on-year [6]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2,080 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.2%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.7% [6]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the national subsidy policy has stimulated demand, leading to a V-shaped recovery in the kitchen appliance industry in late 2024, although Q1 2025 did not continue this growth due to demand being pulled forward [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for the company in 2024 was 49.7%, showing a slight decline, while the gross margin for high-end products increased in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a stock incentive plan for 2025, granting stock options to 372 middle management and key technical personnel, with performance targets linked to return on equity and revenue growth [6]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.96 yuan respectively [6].

⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 7 6 5 4 3 2 l 0 -1 -2 -3 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ■成交金额（合计/亿元) •换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 2 2017 23 20 32 - 322 03-23 Ox.O> Ox 02-05- 0:51 03:57:3 Ox 10 Ox 1,0 01-05 03-2-2 ","s 01:10 01:20 ing St 01-02 01-15 01:23 ar 2 o 25 O3, Ja fift 图1：北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.04.30) 北交所日报 2 □国银河证券|CGS 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.04.30) 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表 ...

随着年报季的收官，上市公司亮出了"成绩单"。 截至2025年4月30日，除十余家公司外，沪深共5100多家上市公司披露了2024年年报和2025年一季报。 总的看，2024年上市公司业绩保持韧性，四分之三公司盈利，五成利润增长。 管中窥豹，作为经济高质量发展的微观基础，上市公司的业绩表现体现出了不少新意：AI浪潮引领科 技创新，去年三季度以来在系列稳增长政策推动下，金融业加速回暖，居民消费持续恢复，出行物流日 益火热，出口出海进程加速，带动上市公司业绩显韧性，一季报营收利润增速改善，业绩持续修复。同 时，资本市场改革措施持续显效，上市公司分红回购再创新高，退市常态化推动上市公司提质增效，化 债清欠缓解企业现金流压力。 亮点一：四分之三公司盈利五成利润增长 统计显示，2024年，沪深上市公司共实现营业收入71.8万亿元，同比小幅下滑0.7％；净利润5.2万亿 元，同比下滑2.3％。74％的上市公司实现盈利，48％的公司盈利正增长。 分板块看，沪主板净利润同比增长2.7％，28个实体大类行业中，农林牧渔、电子、交通运输、汽车、 商贸零售等行业增幅靠前。金融业实现净利润2.7万亿元，同比增长10.3％，增速较三季报 ...