6月氯碱： 偏弱震荡 关注宏观和库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 2025-06-03 目 录 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 02 烧碱：强现实弱预期 盘面偏弱震荡 03 PVC：弱预期低估值 盘面偏弱震荡 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱现货偏强运行 资料来源：IFIND，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，公开资料整理，长江期货 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱期货近强远弱 p 5月烧碱主力09合约先涨后跌，月度下跌0.93%收2456元/吨。近月06合约持续维持强势，月度上涨13.84%收2714元/吨。 p 现货维持强势，近月06合约上涨，09合约受终点供需预期偏弱走势弱势，6-9 月差走强，呈现强现实弱预期的分化格局。 p 5月上游一定检修，出口存有一定支撑，液碱库存处于下降态势。魏桥 液碱送货量持续处于低位，原料库存持续走低，但其新线投产对烧碱 需求有增量。5月中上旬氧化铝价格大幅上涨、利润修复，氧化铝复产 预期增强推动烧碱偏强。5月底氧化铝转跌，复产预期转弱。 p 魏桥连续6次上调32 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the maintenance of liquid caustic soda enterprises in Shandong will increase, leading to a decline in supply. The output of alumina enterprises in Shandong is steadily recovering, and the liquid caustic soda receipts of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong continue to grow, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected that these enterprises can reserve a certain amount of liquid caustic soda safety stock during the maintenance of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises for normal alumina production. Before the holiday, due to the low futures price, no effective warehouse receipts were formed. The near - month SH06 contract rose significantly, but the main SH2509 contract lacked follow - up momentum. The market is in an environment of strong reality and weak expectation. Against the backdrop of the overall weakness of bulk commodity futures, this is understandable. Although there are investors concerned about the chlor - alkali cost, and the cost is likely to decline considering the significant drop in coal and grid electricity prices, for caustic soda futures, the far - month contracts can factor in cost issues, while the near - month contracts should focus more on supply - demand factors rather than cost disturbances. Relevant contract arbitrage opportunities can be seized [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chlor - Alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a 1.6% week - on - week increase. The restart or reduction in the Northwest, North, and East China slightly increased the load, while the new maintenance and production - reduction devices in Central and South China decreased the load. The capacity utilization rate in Shandong increased by 1.8% to 89.7%. This week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will be around 84.7%, with a weekly output of about 819,600 tons [8]. - **Demand**: - **Alumina**: In Shandong, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers has been increasing since April 13, reaching 840 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,625 yuan/ton. Currently, alumina enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle, and the short - term consumption of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain strong [8]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remains around 80.17%, with a slight week - on - week decrease in output. The demand side has not improved, as the downstream human cotton yarn market has a general trading atmosphere, with prices remaining stagnant. Downstream manufacturers have a certain risk - aversion sentiment and weak inventory - building willingness, mostly purchasing on a just - in - time basis [8]. - **Printing and dyeing**: The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.68%, a 0.55% week - on - week decrease. Some printing and dyeing factories in Shaoxing have holiday plans around the Dragon Boat Festival, adjusting their schedules according to order volumes. The core issue is the decline in upstream weaving orders, which has led to insufficient white fabric storage in dyeing factories and a passive reduction in the operating rate of dye vats [8]. - **Export**: In April, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 335,800 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more in China was 392,600 wet tons, a 2.08% week - on - week decrease and a 10.22% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 23.28%, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in Northeast and South China increased week - on - week, while those in Northwest, North, Central, and East China decreased, and that in Southwest China remained stable. Overall, the inventory showed a certain decline [8]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and raw salt in Shandong remained stable, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 601 yuan/ton, reaching a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Valuation**: - **9 - 1 spread**: The strong spot price has attracted many investors to participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread, causing the SH2509 contract to generally weaken [8]. - **Basis**: The current caustic soda futures ignore the strong spot reality and focus on the expectation of weak future demand. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and it is not recommended to carry out selling hedging operations at the current basis [8]. 3.2 Chlor - Alkali Prices - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Prices**: Data on the minimum ex - factory converted 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are presented [13]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Prices and Export Caustic Soda Prices**: Data on the prices of flake caustic soda in Shandong and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025, and the FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 are provided [16]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis**: Data on the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2023 to 2025, the price of the main caustic soda contract from 2023 to 2025, and the spread between the SH09 and SH01 contracts in 2024 and 2025 are shown [19]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Prices**: Data on the price of Shandong sea salt from 2021 to 2025, the CIF price of Indian sea salt first - grade industrial salt from 2021 to 2025, and the ex - warehouse price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5000K from 2021 to 2025 are given [22][23]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply, Inventory, and Profit**: Data on the caustic soda output from 2021 to 2025, the liquid caustic soda inventory from 2021 to 2025, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2022 to 2025 are presented [28]. - **Caustic Soda Maintenance**: Information on the maintenance status of caustic soda production facilities last week, including the regions, enterprise names, caustic soda production capacities, and maintenance details, as well as the planned future maintenance of caustic soda production facilities, is provided [30]. 3.4 Chlor - Alkali Demand - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Alumina**: Data on the price of alumina in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of alumina in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, and the alumina output in China in 2024 and 2025 are shown [34]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: Data on the weekly output of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the factory inventory of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China from 2021 to 2025, and the price of viscose staple fiber (1.2D*38mm) in East China from 2021 to 2025 are presented [37]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Pulp and Paper**: Data on the paper product output from 2022 to 2025 and the available inventory days of paper products in upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 are provided [40]. - **Caustic Soda Consumption - Export**: Data on the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and total caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the cumulative export volume and year - on - year growth rate of caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, are shown [43]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream - Propylene Oxide**: Data on the price of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the output of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025, and the operating rate of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025 are presented [46].

Core Viewpoint - Company aims to achieve high-quality development through industry chain extension and transformation, focusing on basic chemicals and new chemical materials, while integrating technological and industrial innovation [2][4][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.899 billion yuan, an increase of 37.10% year-on-year [3][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 191 million yuan, a decrease of 23.21% year-on-year [3][5] - The decline in net profit was attributed to macroeconomic slowdown affecting industrial enterprises and a decrease in product prices leading to lower gross margins, as well as increased financial expenses from convertible bond interest [5][6] Production Capacity and Utilization - The company’s 300,000-ton PVC project commenced production in May 2024, achieving an output of 208,200 tons with a weighted capacity utilization rate of 94.42% [3][5] Dividend Distribution - For the 2024 fiscal year, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 115.22 million yuan, which represents 60.30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][5] Industry Context - The chlor-alkali industry is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with overall profitability declining due to insufficient downstream demand [6][10] - The company is actively monitoring market dynamics to adjust pricing strategies in response to raw material costs and market supply-demand relationships [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Views - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive support in fundamentals, so its trend is under pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and the resumption progress of alumina production capacity [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4744 yuan/ton (-14), the East China basis is -94 yuan/ton (+4), and the South China basis is -9 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4650 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4735 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 180 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -621 yuan/ton (+37), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -516 yuan/ton (+10), and the PVC export profit is 19.8 US dollars/ton (+6.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 38.7 tons (-1.9), the social inventory is 37.8 tons (-2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 75.71% (+2.52%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.71% (-1.19%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 74.60% (+1.49%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2479 yuan/ton (+23), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 271 yuan/ton (-23) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 975.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 313.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1365.55 yuan/ton (-60.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.26 tons (-0.83), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.73 tons (-0.22), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 84.10% (+1.60%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina is 78.10% (+1.43%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.68% (-0.55%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 80.60% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There is limited new maintenance, and some previously maintained enterprises have resumed production. The operating rate of the PVC industry has increased month - on - month. With less planned maintenance in the later period and expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of PVC downstream product enterprises is at a low level in the same period. The operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films are weakly stable. The downstream market mainly makes rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The domestic demand is weak, and the export to India may be affected [3]. - Cost side: The upstream calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost support for PVC is insufficient [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are few new maintenance devices, and previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production. The overall operating rate of caustic soda has continued to rise month - on - month. With expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: The price of alumina has continued to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry has significantly recovered. The operating rate of alumina is expected to rise, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. However, non - aluminum downstream demand remains weak [3]. Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic Soda: Neutral, pay attention to the continuity of downstream replenishment and the resumption progress of alumina production capacity [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The market is influenced by macro - geopolitical factors and supply marginal increments. The US trade court's ruling on Trump's global tariff policy and potential sanctions on Russia, along with OPEC + supply policies, are key factors. Demand is constrained by global trade frictions. Short - term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and breakthroughs require clarity on OPEC + production decisions and EU - US tariff games. Mid - to long - term, a band - trading strategy is recommended, and short - term, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. Suggested price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Attention should be paid to INE spread rebound opportunities and options to buy volatility during range - bound periods [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase due to profit improvement and new production lines. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost decline pose risks. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 6 - 9 spread long position [7]. - PVC: Recently, PVC has been weak due to poor market sentiment. Fundamentally, long - term contradictions are prominent as real - estate demand remains sluggish, and exports face potential negative impacts. In the near term, supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and exports may remain positive due to BIS extension. PVC is expected to remain weak in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended with resistance around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - Spot prices continue to fall, but trading volume has improved. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. For PE, maintenance will increase before early June, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decrease. For PP, supply pressure will increase after the maintenance peak in late May. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of restocking. It is recommended to short PP on rallies and expect the LP spread to widen [12]. Styrene - After the styrene delivery, short - covering cooled down, and the basis declined. The weak commodity market and inventory increases of pure benzene and styrene at the docks put downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The new - cycle port inventory of styrene has started to accumulate, increasing the pressure on high - price supplies. In the medium term, the low - profit situation of 3S products provides limited support for styrene, and Sino - US tariff disputes will negatively affect terminal demand. However, the overnight crude oil rebound may impact the chemical market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on styrene in the medium term [18]. Urea - The market is currently weak due to increased inventory pressure during the demand lull. If export - reserved inventory cannot be quickly digested, it will further intensify spot pressure. Urea exports are a potential turning point, depending on Middle East and South American procurement demand and export policies. If orders exceed expectations, inventory pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the market will remain loose [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing as some domestic and foreign devices resume production. Downstream PTA load is rising, and the short - term supply - demand situation is still good. Spot supplies are tight, and foreign buyers are supporting prices. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position can be attempted, and the PX - SC spread can be narrowed [29]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices restarted, and the supply - demand situation is weakening due to strong polyester factory减产 sentiment. Cost support is limited, but low processing fees provide some support. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position is recommended [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Despite polyester减产 expectations, supply is expected to contract due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Port inventory is decreasing, and de - stocking may accelerate in June. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 9 - 1 spread long position [29]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are under pressure, and some factories plan to reduce production. Raw material PTA supply - demand is weakening. Short - fiber processing fees may recover, and the absolute price will follow raw materials. Attention should be paid to factory production cuts. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees can be widened at low levels [29]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply is expected to increase, but demand from the downstream soft - drink industry will rise during the peak consumption season. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and attention should be paid to device operation under low processing fees. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees are expected to range between 350 - 550 yuan/ton, with opportunities to widen at the lower end [29]. Methanol - Fundamentally, inland methanol has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has increased, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period, with May imports expected to reach 110 million tons. Iranian supply increments and positive import profits strengthen arrival expectations. MTO low - operation restricts demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies, as the mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under inventory - accumulation expectations [38][40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude rose to $65.31/barrel, WTI to $62.31/barrel, and SC to 457.40 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3, also increased [2]. - **Product Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased slightly. Some spreads, like RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3, decreased [2]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of some refined products, such as US gasoline and Singapore gasoline, decreased [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices of PVC decreased. Some spreads, like V2505 - 2509, also changed. Overseas quotes were stable, and export profits increased significantly [6][7]. - **Caustic Soda**: Domestic prices were stable, overseas quotes increased, and export profits turned positive [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry and some downstream industries'开工 rates increased, while PVC开工 rates decreased slightly. Inventories of both products decreased [6][7]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased. Some spreads, such as L2505 - 2509 and PP2505 - 2509, changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PE device开工 rate decreased, PP device and powder开工 rates increased slightly, and downstream weighted开工 rates increased. PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased [11][12]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and some other upstream products changed. Pure benzene prices decreased [15]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, and the spread decreased [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Profits**: Overseas quotes decreased slightly, and import profits increased significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic pure benzene综合开工率 increased, styrene开工率 decreased, and some downstream products'开工 rates changed. Inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices decreased slightly, and some spot prices increased. Some spreads and basis values changed [21][25]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production of urea increased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory remained stable [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. PX prices decreased [29]. - **Polyester Product Prices**: Prices of POY, FDY, and other polyester products were stable or decreased slightly. Cash flows of some products changed [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA开工率 increased, MEG综合开工率 decreased, and polyester综合开工率 decreased slightly [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of methanol decreased, and some spreads and basis values changed. Spot prices in different regions also changed [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Enterprise and port inventories of methanol increased, upstream and some downstream开工 rates changed [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Report Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral [5] Core Views - PVC is facing high supply and inventory pressure, with weak domestic demand and insufficient cost - side support, so its upward space is limited [4][5] - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases [4][5] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,865 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis was - 125 yuan/ton (-21), and the South China basis was - 65 yuan/ton (-11) [2] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,800 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 621 yuan/ton (+37), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 516 yuan/ton (+10), and the PVC export profit was 7.2 dollars/ton (+6.8) [2] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 38.7 tons (-1.9), the social PVC inventory was 37.8 tons (-2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 73.19% (-2.33%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 72.90% (+2.84%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 73.11% (-0.90%) [2] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 60.3 tons (-2.9) [2] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,486 yuan/ton (+29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 202 yuan/ton (+2) [2] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 860 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,420 yuan/ton (+20) [3] - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,696 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 833.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 241.28 yuan/ton (+21.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,455.35 yuan/ton (+0.00) [3] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 40.09 tons (-1.50), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.95 tons (+0.03), and the caustic soda operating rate was 84.10% (+1.50%) [3] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina was 78.10% (+1.43%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 63.23% (+0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.30% (-0.35%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The new maintenance scale is small, the previously maintained devices continue to shut down, the PVC operating rate declines slightly, and the supply pressure remains high due to high production and new capacity expectations [4] - Demand side: The operating rate of downstream PVC product enterprises is at a low level, the operation of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable, and the demand side remains weak [4] - Cost side: The upstream calcium carbide market is weakly stable, the ex - factory price drops, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [4] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, the previously maintained enterprises resume operation, the overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly, and the supply pressure remains high due to new capacity expectations [4] - Demand side: The alumina price rises, the production profit is significantly repaired, and the operating rate is expected to rise, which may support the caustic soda price in the short term; non - aluminum downstream demand remains weak [4] - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreases slightly [4] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, with prices expected to remain weakly at the bottom in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral, with prices expected to continue the weakly volatile trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment sustainability and alumina capacity resumption progress [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].