1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and recommendations are provided for selected varieties. Options strategy reports are compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations for each option variety. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies focused on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 464, with a price increase of 4 and a price change percentage of 0.91%, trading volume of 8.02 million lots, volume change of -2.85 million lots, open interest of 2.96 million lots, and open interest change of -0.19 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various energy and chemical options are provided. Volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying market has a turning point, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.90, with a change of -0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of -0.03 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various energy and chemical option underlying contracts are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil (SC2512) is 500, and the support level is 440 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various energy and chemical options are presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.935%, the weighted implied volatility is 29.69%, with a change of -0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production did not significantly decrease. OPEC exports have increased, but most are absorbed by China, so there is no obvious visible inventory in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory is in a low - level destocking state, and the crude oil inventory has increased, but refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and the diesel crack spread remains high [7]. - Market analysis: Since July, crude oil prices have gradually weakened and then consolidated in a range. In August, prices first rose and then fell, showing short - term weak fluctuations. In September, the market continued to be weak and bearish before gradually rebounding. In October, prices fell sharply and then stopped falling and rebounded [7]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is below 0.80, indicating that crude oil has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of crude oil is 500, and the support level is 450 [7]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [7]. 3.5.2 Energy Options - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply on one hand and geopolitical issues on the other. Last week, the crude oil price fluctuated around the $65 mark, and OPEC maintained its production increase. US propane inventories continue to accumulate, and the inventory is at a historical high, waiting for an inventory inflection point [9]. - Market analysis: Since August, LPG prices have accelerated their decline, then rebounded and rose, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. In September, prices first rose and then fell rapidly. In October, prices were first weak and then strong, gradually rebounding and rising, followed by slight fluctuations, showing an oversold rebound market with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of LPG options is around 0.80, indicating that LPG has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of LPG is 4500, and the support level is 4000 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of methanol is 150.65 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.57 million tons, remaining in a high - level shock state and difficult to effectively destock. The enterprise inventory is 37.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.57 million tons, and the year - on - year level is low. The enterprise's pending orders are 21.56 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons [9]. - Market analysis: In July, methanol prices rose and then fell, continuously declining and weakening, followed by significant fluctuations. Since August, prices have gradually weakened and trended downward. In September, prices consolidated at a low level and then rebounded. Since October, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR of methanol options is below 0.80, indicating that methanol has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of methanol is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option. When the market rebounds to the high strike price, close the position in combination with spot sales [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is 52.3 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 5.6 million tons; the downstream factory inventory days are 13.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 days. In the short term, the arrival volume was high last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. The port inventory is expected to accumulate. The domestic production load is at a high level, and the overseas arrival volume is increasing, so ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation period [10]. - Market analysis: In July, ethylene glycol prices were in a low - level weak consolidation and gradually rose, then fell rapidly. In August, prices continued to show slight weak consolidation. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that the bearish force of ethylene glycol has been relatively strong recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of ethylene glycol is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time value returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin Options - Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 51.46 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 2.81%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 2.02%; the inventory of PE traders is 5.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 0.70%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 63.85 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 5.92%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 12.69%; the inventory of PP traders is 22.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 7.80%; the port inventory of PP is 6.68 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 1.62%. The overall inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [10]. - Market analysis: Since July, the decline of polypropylene prices has narrowed, gradually stabilized, and slightly fluctuated upwards, then fell rapidly. In August, prices maintained slight weak fluctuations. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices fell rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak market trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that polypropylene has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of polypropylene is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The social inventory of natural rubber in China is 103.89 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 43.22 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 million tons, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory is 6.87 million tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory is 36.35 million tons, a decline of 1.18% [11]. - Market analysis: Since July, rubber prices have continued to rise in the short term and then reached a peak and fell back. In August, prices gradually recovered and rose, then fluctuated in a range. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices continued to be weak and fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak consolidation market trend with support below and resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has rapidly increased and then declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of rubber options is below 0.60. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of rubber has significantly moved down to 17000, and the support level is 14000 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - Fundamental analysis: The operating load of PTA is 78%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In terms of equipment, Yisheng Dalian and Weilian Chemical slightly reduced their loads, Zhongtai is restarting, and the new plant of Shanshan Energy has been put into production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in November will increase significantly, and the overall load is under great pressure under low processing fees [11]. - Market analysis: In August, PTA prices fell back, then slightly consolidated, and then rebounded rapidly, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices first fell and then rose, followed by slight fluctuations, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level compared to the average. The open interest PCR of PTA options is around 0.70, indicating that PTA has been in a fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of PTA is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.8 Energy and Chemical Options - Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. By region, the production loads in the northwest, north, east, northeast, and south have all increased [12]. - Market analysis: In July, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell. In August, prices fell rapidly and then gradually rebounded, showing short - term bullish upward movement and then high - level fluctuations. Since September, prices have continuously closed with negative candles and gradually weakened. In October, prices fell rapidly, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above recently [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of caustic soda options is below 0.8, indicating that caustic soda has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of caustic soda is 2600, and the support level is 2240 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.9 Energy and Chemical Options - Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: As of October 31, 2025, the in - plant inventory of soda ash is 170.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons; the inventory available days are 14.11 days, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The in - plant inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.81 yuan/ton; the in - plant inventory of light soda ash is 81.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.80 yuan/ton [12]. - Market analysis: Since August, soda ash prices have continued to show weak consolidation. In September, prices fluctuated slightly at a low level and were weak. In October, the market continued to be weak, recently showing a low - level weak fluctuating market trend with support below [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR of soda ash options is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of soda ash is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy to obtain volatility returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.10 Energy and Chemical Options - Urea - Fundamental analysis: The enterprise inventory of urea is 155.43 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.59 million tons. Some reserve demands have followed up, and the enterprise inventory has decreased from a high level. The port inventory is 11 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons, and ports in many places have loaded and cleared the inventory [13]. - Market analysis: In July, urea prices fluctuated widely in a large range under the bearish pressure line and then rose rapidly. In August, prices continued to fluctuate widely

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PVC: Supply-demand pressure is high, and the fundamental supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease. The futures and spot prices are both weakening. Supply is expected to increase as some maintenance enterprises resume production next week. The peak season shows no obvious improvement, and downstream product enterprises perform averagely. The export market is affected by India's anti-dumping tax, with a wait-and-see attitude. The cost side provides bottom support, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, with a bearish view on rebounds [3]. - Caustic Soda: The price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and the industry's profit is shrinking with increasing losses. Some enterprises have cut production passively, so the demand-side support for caustic soda is weak. In the medium to long term, there is demand support as alumina has many planned projects in Q1 next year, which may lead to concentrated stockpiling in Q4 this year. After the National Day, non-aluminum industries may have purchasing intentions due to low prices. However, in the short term, the supply of caustic soda is increasing, while downstream demand is average, so the market sentiment is weak, and the price lacks support. A bearish view is recommended for short-term trading, and the downstream replenishment rhythm needs to be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Trends**: The macro environment has weakened, and the caustic soda market has been affected by factors such as high开工 rates, inventory changes, and alumina demand. The futures price has fluctuated, and the spot price has shown a downward trend in some periods [8]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted开工 rate of sample enterprises decreased to 85.45% from 88.24% last week, and the caustic soda production decreased by 3.17% to 82.43 tons. Many enterprises have carried out maintenance or faced unexpected failures [27]. - **Demand**: The demand from the alumina industry is weak due to its poor profitability. However, new alumina projects are expected to drive demand growth in the future. Non-aluminum industries may increase purchases after the National Day [4]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased in August but the export profit increased in September [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Trends**: The PVC futures price has been on a downward trend due to weak supply-demand drivers and a poor commodity market atmosphere. The spot price has also weakened [63]. - **Supply**: The overall开工 rate of PVC powder decreased to 75.14% this week, with significant decreases in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods. Many enterprises have carried out maintenance [85]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory is high [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years [101]. - **Export**: The net export volume decreased in August. The import volume in August 2025 was 1.24 tons, and the export volume was 28.41 tons [113][119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

数据来源：国家统计局 根据国家统计局公布的数据，化工产品类别下的聚氯乙烯（SG5）2025年9月中旬市场价格为4802元/ 吨，同比下滑9.02%，环比上涨1.14%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2021年9月中旬达到最大值，有10131 元/吨。 2019-2025年9月中旬聚氯乙烯（SG5）市场价格变动统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国聚氯乙烯行业竞争战略分析及市场需求预测报告》 ...

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]