1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have a significant impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices and increasing market uncertainty [1][2][3][5][6] - The supply and demand of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and terminal demand, resulting in different price trends [1][2][3][5][6] - The cost side is the main focus of the market, and the volatility of crude oil prices will lead to resonance in the prices of related products [1][2][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell sharply. WTI April contract closed down $11.32 to $83.45/barrel, a decline of 11.94%. Brent May contract closed down $11.16 to $87.8/barrel, a decline of 11.28%. SC2604 closed at 642 yuan/barrel, down 90.4 yuan/barrel, a decline of 12.34%. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is tense, and the inventory of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate oil has decreased. China's crude oil imports from January to February increased by 15.8% year-on-year. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The high-sulfur supply interruption risk has increased, and the Asian low-sulfur market is expected to remain strong. Geopolitical changes will increase market volatility, and investors are advised to control risks [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The geopolitical conflict has restricted the procurement channels of heavy crude oil by local refineries, and the raw material cost has risen. However, the terminal demand has not yet started, and the social inventory is digested slowly. The asphalt market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand", and the increase may be less than that of other oil products [2] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester contracts fell. The supply of chemical products has decreased, and the cost side is the main focus of the market. The polyester chain varieties will oscillate with the cost side in the short term, and investors can focus on factors such as the passage efficiency of the strait, the start-up situation of domestic suppliers, and the downstream negative feedback [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber contracts showed different trends. The domestic and foreign rubber is in the low-yield season, and the supply reduction expectation of butadiene has increased. The price of butadiene and its downstream products has continued to rise. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to the external macro atmosphere and the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol price showed a certain trend. The domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the supply is in a high-level oscillation. The Iranian supply overseas remains low. The demand is at a low level. The arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the low load of MTO devices will put pressure on inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to control risks [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin prices showed a certain trend. The upstream device maintenance plan has increased, and the subsequent production is expected to decrease. The downstream factory start-up load has increased, and the demand still has room for growth. The market is in the process of inventory reduction, and the fundamental pressure is not great. The short-term geopolitical risk has increased the volatility, and investors should pay attention to the changes in the US-Iran situation and control risks [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price in East, North, and South China has been significantly reduced. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene method, but the profit of the calcium carbide method has increased rapidly. The subsequent supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover. The overall inventory is in the process of reduction, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Investors should pay attention to the downstream resumption progress, the implementation of export orders, and the Iranian situation [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on March 10, 2026, as well as the comparison data of the previous day. These data can help investors understand the market price relationship between the spot and futures of different varieties [7] 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander warned that any ships related to Iran's hostile forces are not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [11] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2026 to 1,361 million barrels per day and in 2027 to 1,383 million barrels per day. The global oil production forecast for 2026 is 107 million barrels per day, and for 2027 is 109.6 million barrels per day. The global oil demand forecast for 2026 is 105.2 million barrels per day, and for 2027 is 106.6 million barrels per day [11] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows that the inventories of U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate oil decreased last week. China's crude oil imports in February were 48.045 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 96.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, which helps investors understand the long-term price trends of different varieties [14][16][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures of different varieties [29][30][33][34][35][36][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the price differences between different contract periods of different varieties [39][40][41][42][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the price relationships between different varieties [54][56][57][59] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the profitability of different varieties [60][61][62] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the research team members of Everbright Futures' energy and chemical research, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and analysts for different product categories, and briefly describes their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [66][67][68][69]

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a public notice soliciting opinions on 243 industry standards, including the "Technical Specification for Energy Conservation Supervision in the Sulfuric Acid Industry" [2][3] - The standards cover various sectors, including chemical, black metallurgy, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, and shipbuilding, with a total of 243 standards being reviewed [2][3] Chemical Industry - The "Technical Specification for Energy Conservation Supervision in the Sulfuric Acid Industry" outlines the content, methods, and procedures for energy conservation supervision in sulfuric acid production enterprises [5] - The "Technical Specification for Energy Conservation Supervision in the Polyvinyl Chloride Industry" provides similar guidelines for PVC resin production enterprises [5] Black Metallurgy Industry - The "Artificial Intelligence Empowered Waste Steel Intelligent Classification System Technical Requirements" specifies the system architecture, equipment requirements, data requirements, and system performance for intelligent classification of scrap steel [6] - The "Artificial Intelligence Empowered Online Detection System for Iron and Steel Ladle Erosion State" details the system architecture and performance requirements for detecting the erosion state of ladles in steel production [6] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The "Technical Specification for Wastewater Recycling in Cobalt Smelting Enterprises" outlines the overall requirements for wastewater treatment and recycling processes in cobalt smelting [7] - The "Technical Specification for Wastewater Recycling in Nickel Smelting Enterprises" provides similar guidelines for nickel smelting operations [7] Building Materials Industry - The "Technical Specification for Alkali-Resistant Glass Fiber Roving" includes classification, requirements, testing methods, and storage guidelines for alkali-resistant glass fibers [8] - The "Technical Specification for Water-Based Epoxy Modified Cement Floor Materials" details the classification, requirements, and testing methods for these materials used in construction [8] Machinery Industry - The "Technical Guidelines for Energy Conservation Diagnosis in the Heat Treatment Industry" establishes the principles and procedures for conducting energy conservation diagnostics in heat treatment enterprises [11] - The "Technical Specification for Filter Bag Frames for Bag Dust Collectors" specifies the classification and technical requirements for manufacturing filter bag frames [11] Additional Standards - The standards also include various technical specifications for other industries, such as lithium-ion battery materials, construction materials, and environmental protection equipment [9][10][12]

Group 1 - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4943.97 points, up 0.65% from last Friday, and outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.01% this week [1][2] - Among the 25 sub-industries in the Shenwan chemical classification, 13 sub-industries rose while 12 fell. The leading sectors included textile chemical products, other chemical raw materials, compound fertilizers, coal chemicals, and phosphate fertilizers, with weekly increases of 13.89%, 6.58%, 4.94%, 4.72%, and 4.56% respectively [1][2] - The sectors that experienced declines included modified plastics, synthetic resins, and other plastic products, with weekly decreases of -6.44%, -4.36%, and -3.67% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The price of disperse dyes has increased, with a rise of 1000 yuan/ton to 18000 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026, marking the first price adjustment in nearly a quarter [3] - The price of active dyes rose from 22000 yuan/ton to 23000 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, driven by a significant increase in the price of upstream key intermediates [3] - The price of key intermediates used in dye production has surged from 25000 yuan/ton to 38000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 50%, impacting downstream dye prices [3] Group 3 - The viscose fiber industry is experiencing high operating rates and low inventory levels, creating a basis for price increases. The industry operating rate has remained above 90% since September 2025, with total inventory at 10000 tons as of January 30, 2026, down 24.53% week-on-week [4] - The inventory days are estimated to be around 9 days, indicating a relatively low inventory level and favorable conditions for price increases in the viscose industry [4] Group 4 - The PVC industry is advancing towards mercury-free production, with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts. The industry has achieved a target of halving mercury usage per unit product by 2020 compared to 2010 [5] - The transition from "low mercury" to "mercury-free" production is expected to lead to the exit of outdated production capacities, thereby restoring the supply-demand balance in the PVC industry [5]

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing up by $1.76 to $62.39 per barrel, a rise of 2.90% [2] - Brent March contract rose by $1.98 to $67.57 per barrel, marking a 3.02% increase [2] - The severe cold weather in the U.S. disrupted several refineries along the Gulf Coast, leading to a temporary halt in crude oil exports [2] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production policy unchanged in the upcoming meeting [2] - Chevron's Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is projected to recover less than half of its production capacity by February 7, with further recovery remaining uncertain [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.57% to 2692 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.35% to 3165 yuan/ton [3][16] - Downstream demand is showing signs of recovery, but an increase in supply may create pressure on the market fundamentals in the coming month [16][17] - Geopolitical factors, particularly regarding Iran, continue to influence price volatility [17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract rose by 0.31% to 3279 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in refinery output expected in February [4][18] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions affecting end-user demand [18] Rubber - The main rubber contract fell by 25 yuan/ton to 16205 yuan/ton, with NR main contract remaining stable at 13085 yuan/ton [5][19] - Increased imports and rising port inventories are expected to limit price fluctuations [19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5258 yuan/ton, down 3.31%, while EG2605 closed at 3938 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [6][20] - The polyester downstream is experiencing reduced production, leading to low inventory levels and weak profit margins [20] Methanol - Methanol prices are stable, with Taicang spot price at 2267 yuan/ton and CFR China prices between $270-$274 [7][21] - Domestic supply remains high, but demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for oil-based and methanol-based PP [8][23] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream factories are expected to halt operations, leading to potential inventory accumulation [23] PVC - PVC prices are adjusting downwards, with the East China market seeing prices between 4680-4770 yuan/ton for calcium carbide method [9][24] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [24] Urea - Urea futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1790 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [10][25] - Supply is stable, but demand is showing signs of divergence between agricultural and industrial sectors [25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are experiencing slight declines, with the main contract closing at 1194 yuan/ton [11][26] - The market is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment, but overall demand remains limited [26] Glass - Glass futures prices are weak, with the main contract closing at 1066 yuan/ton, down 0.93% [12][27] - The supply remains stable, but demand may decrease as the holiday approaches [27]

Oil Market - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing down $1.26 at $59.36 per barrel, a decline of 2.08% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.18 at $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [2] - EIA report indicated an increase in crude oil inventory by 3.6 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [2] - Gasoline inventory reached its highest level since 2021, with exports dropping by over 500,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the drone attack on a major Russian oil terminal, continue to impact oil prices [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 1.89% to 2592 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.65% to 3135 yuan/ton [3] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels (8.22%) week-on-week, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 13,600 barrels (1.35%) [3] - The market structure for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply from Venezuela [3][4] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.45% to 3157 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments increasing by 15.1% week-on-week [5] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers decreased by 0.5% week-on-week but increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] - The market is currently balancing weak demand with strong cost expectations, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 105 yuan/ton to 15850 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [6] - China's rubber tire production is projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year, while synthetic rubber production is expected to decline by 20.2% [6] - The rise in butadiene rubber prices is attributed to supply shortages and increased demand from tire manufacturers [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5298 yuan/ton, up 2.79%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 4.28% [7] - PX futures closed at 7390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase [7] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 73.04%, down 1.39% week-on-week [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2238 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $260 to $264 per ton [8] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [8] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to pressure from port inventory [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - HDPE and LDPE prices have increased compared to last week, indicating a recovery in demand [9] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday [9] PVC - PVC prices have increased across various regions, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4530 to 4630 yuan/ton [10] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing down, leading to a bearish outlook [10] - The market is expected to experience bottoming trends due to changes in export tax policies [10] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [11] - Demand is expected to remain strong due to pre-spring planting preparations, although market acceptance of prices will be crucial [11] - Urea inventory has decreased by 4.07%, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased to 1185 yuan/ton, with stable pricing in the market [12] - Recent production rates have shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease in output [12] - The market is expected to face pressure from rising supply and stable demand [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1057 yuan/ton, with stable demand observed [14] - The industry is preparing for potential production increases, but seasonal demand may decline as the holiday approaches [14] - Overall supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of inventory accumulation [14]

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

Core Insights - The S&P Global report highlights a structural divergence in the global energy and chemical industries, driven by the collision of AI revolution, energy transition, and geopolitical factors, indicating that while the industry shows resilience, the circumstances across different segments will vary significantly [1] Supply Chain Challenges - The report emphasizes the geopolitical-driven restructuring of supply chains and demand mismatches in the energy and commodities markets, with a notable shift in the global propane import market, where the U.S. market share has declined while the Middle East and Canada have gained advantages [2] - The global PVC industry faces dual pressures of production cuts and trade flow reversals, reshaping the supply chain due to high energy costs in Europe and potential overcapacity in Asia [2] - In the energy transition sector, the demand for stable electricity from AI data centers is prompting tech giants to reassess the strategic value of nuclear power, while outdated transmission networks hinder the large-scale integration of renewable energy [2] Investment Landscape - The macro credit environment shows stark contrasts within the energy and chemical sectors, with strong financing demand in areas like AI data centers, power facilities, critical mineral extraction, and LNG supply chains, while traditional chemical manufacturing faces refinancing pressures and weak demand [3] - The report warns of a "double-edged sword" effect surrounding the investment boom in AI and energy transition, where high market expectations could lead to credit tightening and capital pullback if economic benefits or technological advancements fall short [3] Emerging Market Opportunities and Challenges - Emerging market countries with key mineral resources are positioned to benefit directly from the surge in global electric vehicle and energy storage demand, while some developing economies show growth potential due to lower dependence on the U.S. market [4] - However, emerging markets aiming to develop manufacturing face significant challenges, including the need to invest in automation and AI technologies to enhance industrial competitiveness, as well as navigating external policies like carbon tariffs from developed economies [4] - The report identifies three key areas of opportunity: stable base-load energy supporting AI computing, critical resources driven by energy transition, and regional supply chain opportunities arising from geopolitical restructuring [4] Future Industry Dynamics - The report concludes that the era of universal industry prosperity is over, and future winners will be those who can accurately identify advantageous segments within the supply chain, adapt to changes in geopolitical trade, and effectively manage both energy and capital costs [5] - Understanding and leveraging the "non-uniformity" of the divergence trend will be crucial for capturing genuine growth opportunities in the evolving landscape [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but floating storage is high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. It is believed that the end - point of contract 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year.后续供应预计环比略增加, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, contract 01 is expected to face neutral to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance [3]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes such as a 25 - yuan decrease in Jiangsu spot [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants shut down, ports and inland areas rebounded, basis strengthened slightly, ports destocked for two weeks but floating storage was high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation. November shipments from Iran were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products changed, with daily changes like a 10 - yuan decrease in North China LL [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year, upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around - 200, and domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 75 - yuan increase in East China PP [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, import profit is around - 700, exports are good, and subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 10 - yuan decrease in the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices, and the overall oil price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply. The price of fuel oil is expected to remain weak due to the relatively pessimistic view on oil prices in December [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI January contract closed up 0.31 dollars to 58.95 dollars/barrel, a 0.53% increase; Brent February contract closed up 0.22 dollars to 62.67 dollars/barrel, a 0.35% increase; SC2601 closed at 450.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.6 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week, while the Cushing crude inventory decreased. Refinery processing volume and capacity utilization increased. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 3, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The expectation that US and Western sanctions on Russian crude oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term has supported oil prices. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][33][34][36][37][38]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - commodity contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [71][72][73][74].