数据来源：国家统计局 根据国家统计局公布的数据，化工产品类别下的聚氯乙烯（SG5）2025年9月中旬市场价格为4802元/ 吨，同比下滑9.02%，环比上涨1.14%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2021年9月中旬达到最大值，有10131 元/吨。 2019-2025年9月中旬聚氯乙烯（SG5）市场价格变动统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国聚氯乙烯行业竞争战略分析及市场需求预测报告》 ...

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views Caustic Soda - Recent downstream alumina prices are stable, but market trading enthusiasm has declined. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has high profits, increasing restocking demand. Supply is expected to increase as there will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than in July. In August, the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas is expected to increase. The demand side lacks obvious positive support, and downstream customers are sensitive to price changes. The overall outlook is neutral to weak, and attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [2]. PVC - New production capacities are being put into operation, domestic trade is weak, spot trading is sluggish this week, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased. Inventory pressure continues to rise, and demand is difficult to improve. New production capacities at home and abroad will continue to be released in August. The overall supply - demand pressure remains high, but attention should be paid to the impact of coking coal prices on PVC prices [3]. Futures and Options Strategies - For both caustic soda and PVC, the futures strategy is to short on rallies, and the options strategy is to buy put options [4][5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Caustic Soda Price and Market Dynamics - The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends under different market conditions, such as falling due to factors like increased supply and weakening demand from alumina plants, and rising due to positive policies and increased demand from major downstream industries [8]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.10%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points from last week. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong has increased [27]. Alumina Impact - From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina is 1230 million tons (including 200 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. Other Factors - The price of bauxite is stable, and port inventories have slightly declined this week. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production but low出库 volume and high in - plant inventories. Non - aluminum downstream industries are fragmented, and attention should be paid to their resistance to high caustic soda prices. The estimated export profit of caustic soda is strengthening [40][46][51][58]. PVC Price and Market Dynamics - The PVC futures price has fluctuated under different market conditions, such as falling due to weak supply - demand and poor macro - atmosphere, and rising due to policy expectations and improved market sentiment [65]. Profit - The industry profit of PVC has weakened on a month - on - month basis [71]. Supply - This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73%. The capacity utilization rates of both the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method have increased [87]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the demand from the real estate sector is still negative. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years [97]. Inventory - PVC inventories have continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, and the pressure is prominent [105]. International Market - The international price of PVC has shown narrow fluctuations. In June 2025, PVC exports decreased on a month - on - month basis but increased on a year - on - year basis. The import volume increased on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened, but weekly export transactions are weak [112][123].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]