首华燃气公告，预计2025年度净利润为1.5亿元–2亿元。本报告期，公司持续深化深层煤层气开发、精 细化致密气动用、多层系纵向立体开发等方面的研究、部署与开发，持续加大建产力度，稳步推进气井 投产工作，天然气产量快速提升，2025年末日产气量突破300万立方米，年产气量同比增长约98%；同 时，公司进一步强化上中下游协同，销售气量同比增长约90%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement by Trump to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, which is seen as a political maneuver to pressure France into joining a peace committee regarding Gaza [1][3][5] - The French government has strongly condemned this action, stating that it is unacceptable and ineffective, with potential losses estimated at 1 billion euros and a significant impact on 600,000 jobs in the wine sector [3][5] - The U.S. is also expected to face negative consequences, as 60% of the tariff costs will be passed on to American consumers, leading to increased wine prices and potential business closures among small importers and restaurants [5][7] Group 2 - Trump's tariff strategy is viewed as a political weapon rather than an economic tool, aimed at forcing other countries to comply with U.S. demands, as evidenced by his threats to impose additional tariffs on goods from several European countries [7][15] - The European Union is considering retaliatory measures against U.S. imports worth 93 billion euros, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [7][15] - The article highlights the broader implications of Trump's policies, suggesting that they may lead to increased isolation for the U.S. as allies like Canada seek cooperation with China, and the U.S. stock market reacts negatively to these developments [13][17]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhejiang Merchants Huijin Dividend Opportunity Mixed A (022000) reported a profit of 22.96 thousand yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0305 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 2.59%, and the fund size reached 868.71 thousand yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [3][12]. Fund Performance - As of January 22, the unit net value was 1.217 yuan. The fund managers, Zhou Wenchao and Hu Xiaonan, have managed four funds that have all yielded positive returns over the past year. The highest growth rate among these funds was 30.66% for Zhejiang Merchants Huijin Transformation Upgrade A, while the lowest was 17.26% for Zhejiang Merchants Huijin Stable Growth One Mixed [3]. - The fund's net value growth rates over different periods are as follows: 7.59% over the last three months (ranked 411 out of 689), 12.03% over the last six months (ranked 540 out of 689), and 22.03% over the last year (ranked 546 out of 673) [3]. Investment Strategy and Outlook - The fund management anticipates a "medium to long-term upward trend with controllable short-term volatility" for 2026. They highlight a clear growth-oriented policy direction with ongoing capital market reforms and consumption promotion policies. Additionally, they expect a resonance between the appreciation of the RMB and the return of institutional funds, reinforcing the trend consensus of "technology + cycle" as the dual main lines [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 1.5768, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [5]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 5.35%, occurring in Q4 2025 [7]. Portfolio Composition - The average stock position since inception is 71.84%, compared to the peer average of 84.04%. The fund reached its highest stock position of 88.58% at the end of Q3 2025 and its lowest of 40.17% at the end of Q1 2025 [11]. - As of Q4 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund include Jiufeng Energy, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Hangzhou Bank, New Energy, Shandong Highway, Zijin Mining, Focus Media, and Zhonggu Logistics [15].

经济观察网美国气象学家表示，今天(1月23日)开始，一场预计将在美国东海岸降下超过一英尺(30.48厘 米)厚积雪，并给得克萨斯州至佐治亚州等多地带来冻雨的强冬季风暴将袭来，可能将影响近一半的美 国人口——预计将有1.5亿美国人受到出行受阻、停电以及严寒天气的影响，多达6000架次航班被取 消。这场北极寒潮还可能对美国电网构成挑战。气象学家指出，这场冬季风暴将是美国今冬以来最严重 的一场，也很可能是近5年来全美影响范围最广的一次。受此影响，美国天然气采暖需求出现上涨，而 天然气管道运输限制与产能已接近满负荷。因此，美国天然气市场出现波动，天然气价格暴涨。 ...

Macro News - Major banks in China, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BOCOM, and PSBC, have announced the implementation of the latest fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans, extending the policy until December 31, 2026, and expanding its scope to include credit card installment payments [1][2] - The new policy removes the previous limits on single transaction amounts and increases the subsidy standards, allowing for more flexible financial support for consumers [1][2] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, emphasizing a shift towards service-oriented, preventive, and intelligent governance [3] - The guidelines encourage horizontal mergers and acquisitions among pharmaceutical retail enterprises and aim to optimize the licensing process for drug retail businesses [3] Sector Insights - CITIC Securities reports that the white wine industry is expected to maintain stable sales during the 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting a bottom-fishing opportunity in the sector [6] - China Securities believes that AI computing power will be a major growth driver in the telecommunications industry, highlighting investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain [6] - CITIC Jinshi notes that the progress of silver-plated copper and electroplated copper solutions in the photovoltaic sector is relatively fast, predicting significant performance elasticity for material companies as penetration rates increase [6]

Group 1 - The oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow of over 350 million yuan in the past 20 days, indicating active capital allocation and a solid long-term growth logic in the industry [1] - The oil industry is currently at the bottom of the previous price cycle and entering a new cycle, with the inventory cycle transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking [1] - Since the second half of 2025, the industrial product PPI and chemical raw material PPI have been continuously rebounding, suggesting that the price decline and destocking period is nearing its end, with an upward trend in the economic cycle gradually beginning [1] Group 2 - The long-term growth logic of the industry remains solid, with continuous optimization of capacity structure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-end and differentiated ethylene expansion while phasing out outdated capacity [2] - There is significant growth potential in demand, with traditional chemical product demand recovering steadily and emerging fields such as new energy, electronics, and high-end manufacturing driving an explosion in new material demand, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry [2] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which covers exploration, extraction, refining, and sales in the oil and gas sector, selecting high market capitalization and liquidity listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas industry [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-23 一、 宏观数据速览 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % ...

中国石化认真落实设备防冻防凝措施，增加生产和储运设施巡检频次，动态优化运行模式，确保安全平 稳生产。强化产销运行统筹，重点抓好普光、涪陵、元坝、大牛地等主力气田稳产增产、全产全销。积 极筹措进口LNG资源，天然气分公司进一步优化进口LNG船期安排，通过科学调度提升天然气接卸与 外输效率，近日分别在天津、青岛LNG接收站安全平稳接卸14万吨LNG资源。密切关注供区气温变 化、供需态势，做细应急预案，确保在特殊情况下通道互用、资源互供、用户互保，筑牢天然气安稳供 应防线。 1月21日，据中国石化新闻办消息，近日今年首场大范围寒潮来袭以来，民生用能需求持续攀升。中国 石化紧盯市场变化，抓好安全生产，组织资源投放，17日至20日累计向市场供应天然气超8亿立方米， 单日最大供气量达2.2亿立方米，创本轮供暖季新高。其中，向天津、河北、河南、山东、山西、陕西 等北方6省市单日供气超1亿立方米，全力保障人民群众温暖过冬。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cold wave has pushed up natural gas prices, with US natural gas futures soaring to their highest level since 2022, and the HH natural gas price is expected to set a record for the largest weekly increase since 1990. The cold wave may disrupt natural gas production in southern US and increase demand, while its impact on shale oil production is expected to be limited [1]. - Crude oil prices remain stable, natural gas prices rise, and chemical product prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. The chemical industry chain is relatively dull, with the ethane - cracking ethylene plant and US propane prices being positively affected. The prices of PTA and styrene in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector are supported by market expectations of profit expansion in the chemical industry chain, but considering the large idle capacity of most chemical products, the probability of continuous profit expansion is low [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate, with crude oil still facing geopolitical risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, with high inventories of crude oil and refined products in the US. The impact of the cold wave and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan are temporary, and future price support depends on geopolitical factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [7]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures has risen with the strength of crude oil. However, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase in the long - term, which will be a major negative factor. Currently, asphalt is overvalued, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is for a volatile market [7][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expectation of a significant increase in heavy oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the geopolitical premium has returned, the high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by natural gas and photovoltaic energy are long - term negative factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The sharp increase in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel oil. Currently, its valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - **PX**: Driven by market sentiment, PX prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but its own structural weakness restricts its upward space. PXN is expected to range between $300 - 350 per ton [11]. - **PTA**: Due to increased capital attention, PTA prices have risen significantly. Although the supply - demand pattern is expected to accumulate inventory, the processing fee has improved, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: Factors such as port destocking, downstream profit - locking, potential tariff cancellation, and the need for a price increase in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector have led to a slightly stronger and volatile trend in pure benzene prices [13][14]. - **Styrene**: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and the overall warm commodity atmosphere have led to a short - term strong and volatile trend in styrene prices. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, this trend will continue [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by capital and the cold wave, ethylene glycol prices have rebounded with reduced positions. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [15][17]. - **Short - Fiber**: Driven by cost and market sentiment, short - fiber prices have strengthened, and downstream replenishment has increased. The price is expected to follow the upstream trend with slightly pressured processing fees [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The resonance of cost and improved supply - demand has led to profit expansion. The price is expected to fluctuate with raw materials, and the support for the processing fee has increased [21]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market has both long and short factors. Methanol is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Urea**: With good new order transactions at low prices, urea prices have stabilized and are expected to fluctuate. The market is currently in a stalemate [24]. - **LLDPE**: The cold wave in the US and the strong chemical market sentiment have driven the price rebound, but the upward space may be limited. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [28]. - **PP**: Driven by the chemical market sentiment, PP prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance plans [29]. - **PL**: Supply has tightened, and PL prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: Short - term "export rush" may support PVC prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is under pressure. The price is expected to be volatile [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda prices are expected to be weak and volatile [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.71, unchanged), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.36, - 0.02), etc. [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis: - 162, change: - 75, warehouse receipts: 45820 tons) [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 358, + 10), 1 - month TA - EG (1630, + 180), etc. [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring for various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not detailed here [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all showed certain increases on January 22, 2026. For example, the commodity index increased by 0.69% to 2444.59, the energy index increased by 1.46% to 1124.89, etc. [276][277].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is restructuring, revising, or canceling approximately $83 billion in financing projects from the Department of Energy's "Green Bank" after reviewing loan transactions approved during President Joe Biden's term [1] - Out of the previous administration's $104 billion loan commitments, nearly $30 billion in loan projects have been canceled or are in the process of being canceled, with plans to revise an additional $53 billion in loans [1] - The Department of Energy has canceled about $9.5 billion in financing for wind and solar projects and plans to redirect funds towards natural gas and nuclear power projects [1]