Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. For palm oil, it is advisable to consider buying on dips; for P9 - 1 and P1 - 5, consider expanding spreads on dips; for options, maintain a wait - and - see stance [11] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 7994 with an increase of 8, palm oil 2509 was 8748 with an increase of 66, and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9424 with a decrease of 15. The basis for different regions and varieties had various changes, with some remaining stable and some having slight fluctuations [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybean oil was 34 with an increase of 14, palm oil was 30 with a decrease of 4, and rapeseed oil was 81 with an increase of 15 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 754 with a decrease of 58, OI - Y was 1430, and OI - P was 676 with a decrease of 81. The oil - meal ratio was 2.67 with a decrease of 0.01 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 8 - month shipping date of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a profit of - 181, and the 8 - month shipping date of FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1013 with a profit of - 642 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (Week 27, 2025)**: The soybean oil inventory was 53.8 tons this week (last week was 53.7 tons, last year was 102.0 tons), palm oil was 51.6 tons, and rapeseed oil was 71.9 tons (last week was 74.7 tons, last year was 39.9 tons) [3] Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% month - on - month to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports were 1549825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025 (Week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 56.3 tons, a 5.21% increase from last week. The origin's quotation was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate, and it was advisable to consider buying on dips [5] - **Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 104.94 tons, a 2.91% increase from last week. The short - term price was expected to maintain fluctuations due to inventory accumulation [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 4, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 71.9 tons, a 2.8 - ton decrease from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was around 1020 US dollars, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The short - term price was expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchase and policy changes [10] Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [11] - **Arbitrage**: Consider expanding the spreads of P9 - 1 and P1 - 5 on dips [11] - **Options**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance [11] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oil varieties, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company Dao Dao Quan expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 175 million to 195 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 541.25% to 614.54% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Dao Dao Quan's stock surged by 7.82% on July 14 following the profit announcement, indicating strong investor confidence [1] - The growth in profit is attributed to an increase in packaging oil sales and improved gross profit margins due to lower procurement costs of raw materials [1] - Despite challenges in the domestic oil industry, Dao Dao Quan has managed to achieve growth through high-end product transformation, particularly in high oleic canola oil [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in domestic consumer demand in the third and fourth quarters of the year, driven by national consumption stimulus policies [2] - Dao Dao Quan is focusing on market development and product marketing, with expectations for new products and major items to continue gaining traction [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Development - The construction of Dao Dao Quan's headquarters base in Changsha County is underway, expected to be completed by the end of next year [2] - This new facility will enhance the company's research capabilities, production capacity, and market reach, supporting ongoing performance growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is beneficial for commodity prices in the long term, as it encourages stability and innovation in production rather than destructive price competition [1]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, achieving a double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in inventory levels and production rhythm among car manufacturers is attributed to the ongoing efforts to address "involution" competition [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded significantly due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with current glass production enterprise inventory at 57.34 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 970,000 heavy boxes week-on-week [2]. Soda ash inventory stands at 1.864 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - **Steel**: Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, with steel inventory continuing to decrease. Despite facing export challenges, the demand remains resilient, and the market is expected to see a strong performance in steel prices [3][22]. - **Stock Indices**: The U.S. stock indices have shown volatility, with a market turnover of 1.74 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 4.768 billion yuan to 1.8605 trillion yuan [3][8]. Group 3: Industry News - The "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project has successfully produced its first barrel of uranium, marking a significant breakthrough in China's natural uranium production capabilities [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.66%, with the central bank shifting from net absorption to net injection in the open market [9]. The market is currently facing uncertainties due to international trade tensions and inflation concerns [9]. - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with OPEC expected to approve significant production increases in September [10]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The U.S. soybean crop's good condition remains stable, with the good rate at 66%, while the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to remain ample, putting pressure on prices [24]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown slight declines, reflecting challenges in increasing freight rates amid fluctuating demand [26].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report was slightly bearish as the unexpected decline in exports in June exceeded the decrease in production and the increase in domestic consumption, causing the palm oil inventory to rise for the fourth consecutive month. The market did not expect such a significant drop in exports, with a 10.52% month - on - month decline in June. However, due to Malaysia's reduction in export tariffs in July, exports may increase, and strong exports limit the market decline. The upward space for palm oil is limited, and short - selling opportunities near the resistance level are worth attention [8]. - The market is waiting to see if the visit of the Australian Prime Minister to China will involve changes in rapeseed trade policies. For soybean oil, the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand. The 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil has dropped significantly to a technically oversold level and may recover [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market prices: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes are Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 and first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In South China, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - Oil and fat comments: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase. The report was slightly bearish. Due to the reduction of export tariffs in July, exports may increase. AmSpec data showed a 12% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports from July 1 - 10. The upward space for palm oil is limited. The market is waiting for news on rapeseed trade policies. Soybean oil supply is loose, and the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil may recover [8]. 2. Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 was 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 79,300 tons from May, a 4.48% month - on - month decline. Imports were 70,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from May, a 1.51% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.2594 million tons, a decrease of 148,100 tons from May, a 10.52% month - on - month decline. The end - of - month inventory was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase [9]. - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 51.5 bushels per acre. If the weather remains favorable, the yield may be further adjusted upwards [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][22][24][29][30]

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" [1][2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price increased. Supply tightened due to safety inspections and regulatory changes, while demand rose during the "peak summer" period. This price increase may push up steel prices and attract more funds to the coal industry. Traders should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level. The A - share market had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index holding above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [7][8]. - Gold may face short - term adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains. Traders can buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - Iron ore has a high overvaluation risk due to weak market conditions, but it showed a significant rebound today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [15][16]. - Glass supply is still high, and demand has not significantly increased. However, it showed a strong breakthrough today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [18][19]. - Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. The capacity replacement window may close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The new "Mineral Resources Law" will force 30% of small coal mines to exit, and the supply of high - quality coking coal is tight, with the spot price rising by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 240,000 tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82%, and the daily production of molten iron rebounded to 235,000 tons. Coking plants' operating rate was 73%, and steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, recovered, and finally pulled back at the end of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index held above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [8]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level [7]. Gold - Market News: The Fed decided not to cut interest rates, reducing the expectation of rate cuts this year, leading to a short - term adjustment in gold prices [12]. - Outlook: The long - term upward trend of gold remains. Traders can buy on dips when the price reaches an important support level [11]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Supply increased month - on - month, molten iron production declined seasonally, and port inventories increased again. The weak market increased the risk of overvaluation [16]. - Outlook: After a significant rebound today, a bullish view is now appropriate [15]. Glass - Market Conditions: There has been no large - scale cold repair of production lines due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not significantly increased [19]. - Outlook: After a strong breakthrough today, a bullish view is now appropriate [18]. Soybean Oil - Market News: The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation are uncertain, which may cause short - term oscillations or strengthen the price of soybean oil [21]. - Outlook: In the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The market for each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics, which will affect their price trends [6][7][11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7944, up 24. In different regions, spot prices varied, and basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 210, 200, and 170 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 30, and 10 [4]. - For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8638, down 40. Spot prices in different regions also differed, and basis in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 60, 150, and 200 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 20 [4]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9468, down 42. Spot prices and basis in different regions were reported, such as a basis of 130 in Zhangjiagang and 60 in Guangdong with no change [4]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybean oil was 22, up 18; for palm oil, it was 22, down 10; for rapeseed oil, it was 56, down 4 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 27, 2025)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 102.0 (previous week: 95.5), palm oil was 53.8 (previous week: 53.7), and rapeseed oil was 71.9 (previous week data not shown in this part) [8]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market (Palm Oil)**: - In June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; exports were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB June report had a neutral - to - bearish impact. As of July 4, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 53.81 tons, up 0.07 tons (0.13%) from the previous week. The import profit inversion narrowed, and the market was expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price rose slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume was 233.22 tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. As of July 4, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 101.97 tons, up 6.45 tons (6.75%) from the previous week. The market was expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price fell slightly. The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 4.7 tons, with an operating rate of 12.53%. As of July 4, 2025, the coastal inventory was 71.9 tons, down 2.8 tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion narrowed, and the market was expected to have large - range fluctuations [11]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [13]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider widening the P9 - 1 and P1 - 5 spreads on pullbacks [14]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [15]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads over different time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [18][21].

金十期货7月10日讯，马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB：马来西亚6月棕榈油出口为1259354吨，环比减少 10.52%。 ...

金十期货7月10日讯，马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB：马来西亚6月棕榈油进口为70015吨，环比增长1.51%。 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+60 ，一菜 09+240。华东市场豆油基差价 格：一豆：现货基差 09+150，7 ...